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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

You know, usually, I would not think a tease for Switch 2 at TGA won't happen. But I am going to try to attend this year in person so I really hope it happens.
I hope it doesn't, because Geoff always schedules the game awards at Fuck Europe O'Clock on a work night; and I don't want to miss Switch 2 finally happening because I was asleep
 
“We’ve got software in development for the switch up until FY 2025” is a pretty significant thing to say. Basically signaling that switch 1 content is coming to an end around then. I mean it was always obvious but pretty wild to hear Nintendo saying it. We really getting Switch 2 next holiday
it means we gonna suport the console until it no longer is able to give us profit, expect software on the console until 2025/2027, we intend for Switch to have a 10 year suport
 
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No. Famitsu and Media Create do not use the abbreviation "NSW". They always say "Switch".
These say NSW:

Code:
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|System | This Week | Last Week | Last Year | YTD | Last YTD | LTD |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| NSW # | 72.590 | 71.578 | 86.572 | 2.991.345 | 3.373.592 | 30.715.392 |
| PS5 # | 46.729 | 38.611 | 29.522 | 2.031.594 | 731.868 | 4.408.983 |
| XBS # | 9.058 | 1.670 | 12.179 | 109.144 | 221.769 | 507.539 |
| PS4 # | 702 | 383 | 10 | 55.409 | 661 | 9.473.176 |
| 3DS # | 73 | 21 | 41 | 2.664 | 9.488 | 24.600.561 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| ALL | 129.152 | 112.263 | 128.324 | 5.190.156 | 4.337.378 | 70.898.026 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| PS5 | 43.482 | 35.865 | 26.380 | 1.769.450 | 655.684 | 3.829.395 |
| PS5DE | 3.247 | 2.746 | 3.142 | 262.144 | 76.184 | 579.588 |
| XBS X | 1.403 | 660 | 544 | 49.776 | 87.044 | 222.187 |
| XBS S | 7.655 | 1.010 | 11.635 | 59.368 | 134.725 | 285.352 |
|NSWOLED| 54.089 | 52.998 | 55.646 | 2.083.880 | 1.906.368 | 5.655.892 |
| NSW L | 8.432 | 9.077 | 3.982 | 402.071 | 484.426 | 5.505.765 |
| NSW | 10.069 | 9.503 | 26.944 | 505.394 | 982.798 | 19.553.735 |
| PS4 | 702 | 383 | 10 | 55.409 | 661 | 7.897.453 |
|n-2DSLL| 73 | 21 | 41 | 2.664 | 9.488 | 1.205.616 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+

 
These say NSW:
No, that is the abbreviation used by Chris who compiles the data. Famitsu and MC do not use NSW.
 
These say NSW:



They don't

 
Respectfully, when it comes to this area, yes, the ROG Ally is. I'm not trying to argue with you, I'm trying to educate you.

Frame generation, on FSR3, is done via async compute. We talk about how "FLOPS aren't everything" but async compute is one of the few places where FLOPS kinda are everything.

A decent guess for NG's power is 1.5 TFLOPS in handheld. How much is the ROG Ally?



Oh, only 5.7x more powerful. It requires running in turbo mode where the battery life is less than an hour. Let's take a look at the exact video you linked to:



It's running in Turbo mode. I wonder how heavy the GPU is loaded up?



98%. Load is actually highly variable, but it tends to top out here. What about before Frame Gen is on?



Again, it's all over the place, dropping as low as 85%, but this is a pretty representative. We can use this to do some basic math that isn't really predictive*, but helps make my point of why this is absolutely useless.

If the ROG Ally is 8.6 TFLOPS, and uses 7% of it's power to run frame gen, and frame gen gives you an extra 10 FPS, how many TFLOPS are being used to do frame gen?

8.7 TFLOPS * 0.07 = 0.602 TFLOPS

NG is 1.5 TFLOPS. So, you would be spending 40% of the GPU's power to generate 10fps. Let's assume you've got a 20fps slideshow. Turn on frame gen. Its not free, it eats 40% of your power. You're down to a native 12fps, with 10 generated extra frames for a net increase in... 2fps. You've gone from 20fps to 22fps - except half your frames look ugly as shit because they're being interpolated at settings way way below AMD recommended settings, and with an increase in latency of 83ms because frame gen always adds one native frame of latency. And when you've knocked frame rate down to 12fps native, that is a shitload of latency.

The math for DLSS3 frame generation is just as bad, and there is no hybrid of FSR and DLSS that somehow runs faster than both. Frame gen might improve, but I hope you see how huge a performance uplift is required before it's viable on a machine as small as NG. In order to hit AMD's recommended minimums for games using frame generation, FG would need to be about 3x as fast as it is now before it would good enough.

But even if it got there, it still would be garbage on low fps games. That's baked into how frame generation works. The slower the native frame rate, the worse that the generated frames look, and the worse the latency, and there is nothing that can ever be done to fix those problems. Reduce those problems, sure, but never eliminate.

The thing you want is magic, and unfortunately, frame generation is just science insufficiently advanced to quality.

* Believe me, I know all your criticisms of this math.. I'm trying to be illustrative here about the cost-benefit analysis, not predictive of actual FSR frame gen performance on NG.

Nice writeup but what if we had a coprocessor that does the bulk of frame generation? Just take a look at HEVC software encoding decoding back in the day, it literally kills CPU clocks.
 
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They don't


No, that is the abbreviation used by Chris who compiles the data. Famitsu and MC do not use NSW.
All right, it was useless to make a suggestion ill refrain from making any suggestions in the future. Thank you have a nice day.
 
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I'm so tired of seeing this dude's chest
[In Prince Vegeta Team Four Star voice] You're not tired of seeing his Majora's mask at least , right... right?
Question. You can make one decision on Switch NG.

16GB LPDDR 5 or 12GB LPDDR 5X
As long as that LPDDR5X is 134 GB/a and we have like 2GB for the OS, max, easily 12GB

Too bad we can't have LPDDR5T. That 150 GB/s bandwidth would be really nice and go an even looonger way.

Bonus points f we got A78c with 8mb of L3 cache, but I'm not expecting it either.

We"re getting 102 GB/s, and we're going to like it 😐


The abbreviation for Nintendo Switch, at least through Media Create or Famitsu, is “NSW”

If it is Super Nintendo Switch or Nintendo Switch Super, the abbreviation would be “SNSW” or “NSWS”

There’s the OLED and the Lite, they get abbreviated as “NSWOLED” and “NSW L” respectively.

It’s possible they just do “SNSW” or “NSWS” not a high one, just one possibility.
They should use NSFW. The New Switch Famicom Wii
 
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I mean we know of Prime 4 and FE4 those are in dev for years on Switch 1

Also ports/remastered of old game can be cross gen
 
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From the Nikkei article :

- How would you apply the "spirit of originality" to the successor to the switch?

I can't give you any specifics. We are constantly researching and developing hardware, but in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, we will focus on expanding the switch business. This is not limited to the "next generation of switches," but the biggest hurdle in any era is whether we can deliver products that customers really want.



- Can we extend the lifecycle of the Switch yet?

We are still making software for switches for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. As long as we can maintain our momentum, we will work to expand the Switch business. In the fiscal year ending March 2024, we hope to sustain the momentum of Zelda and movies and link it to the holiday sales season. In terms of hardware, we will maximize demand not only for new hardware but also for second and replacement hardware.
 
Someone got FSR3 Frame Generation going on the Steam Deck (via Windows) it looks like



I mean it's hard to say it's not at least worth discussing. Game goes from like 23-32 fps at times to near 60 fps in the quality setting and even higher than that in some of the other performance modes. That's pretty impressive. I would be pleased with 30 fps going to 40 fps, lol.

As an aside, man this game bombing must've cut Square-Enix deep becuase it looks like it cost as much as a mainline FF game to make. Bit of a shame as I like the main character design.
 
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I mean, they could just literally use FSR3, lol.

If Xenoblade 4 runs at 20 FPS and using FSR3 can bring it up to 30 without being horrible... Maybe.
FSR3 at 30fps would absolutely be horrible. There's no "if", it just won't be good.

Keep in mind FSR3 and DLSS3 are both strictly frame doubling, so it won't be running 20fps internally, it'll be capped at 15fps.

Considering a typical modern pipeline of 1 frame input buffer -> simulation -> render to back buffer -> render next frame and interpolate -> finally draw to screen, that's like 200-267ms of input lag if not more. Straight up unplayable.

And on top of that it won't even look good. 67ms between frames is too large a gap for frame interpolation to fill with major artefacts and because those interpolated frames will be on screen for a full 33ms each, you're definitely going to notice those artefacts.

I'd rather have 20fps, tbh.
 
Someone got FSR3 Frame Generation going on the Steam Deck (via Windows) it looks like



I mean it's hard to say it's not at least worth discussing. Game goes from like 23-32 fps at times to near 60 fps in the quality setting and even higher than that in some of the other performance modes. That's pretty impressive. I would be pleased with 30 fps going to 40 fps, lol.

As an aside, man this game bombing must've cut Square-Enix deep becuase it looks like it cost as much as a mainline FF game to make. Bit of a shame as I like the main character design.

The problem is still, that the frames are artificial calculated and thus the reaction gets delayed. You want usually 60FPS because the game becomes smoother and you can react better. But with Framegeneration its just the game getting smoother. Looking at the Reviews for DLSS3, which I still presume superior, this will impact the gaming experience in some games drastically and also the experience for some people. Lets take Mortal Kombat 1, which has several issues on Switch, it would be a quite bad idea to solve it with Framegeneration, as for Beat Em Up you want 60 FPS for the reaction time.
I am quite sure, I would give a **** and take the better graphics, as I don't care much for this, but I know there is quite a bunch of people who would care. So it won't be the solution, but a welcomed option.
 
[In Prince Vegeta Team Four Star voice] You're not tired of seeing his Majora's mask at least , right... right?

As long as that LPDDR5X is 134 GB/a and we have like 2GB for the OS, max, easily 12GB

Too bad we can't have LPDDR5T. That 150 GB/s bandwidth would be really nice and go an even looonger way.

Bonus points f we got A78c with 8mb of L3 cache, but I'm not expecting it either.

We"re getting 102 GB/s, and we're going to like it 😐

This is the first I've heard of LPDDR5T. I wonder if that'll be in a Switch 2 Pro.

Do you think there's much chance of the RAM being clocked higher in the docked mode?
 
From the Nikkei article :

- How would you apply the "spirit of originality" to the successor to the switch?

I can't give you any specifics. We are constantly researching and developing hardware, but in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, we will focus on expanding the switch business. This is not limited to the "next generation of switches," but the biggest hurdle in any era is whether we can deliver products that customers really want.



- Can we extend the lifecycle of the Switch yet?

We are still making software for switches for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. As long as we can maintain our momentum, we will work to expand the Switch business. In the fiscal year ending March 2024, we hope to sustain the momentum of Zelda and movies and link it to the holiday sales season. In terms of hardware, we will maximize demand not only for new hardware but also for second and replacement hardware.

This translation seems more accurate

He basically saying nothing new except that Switch 1 will be supported till at least March 2025

He also mentions new hardware as in Switch 2 and second/replacement hardware as in Switch 1 for people with less budget

Expanding the Switch business could also mean launching Switch NG and keep building the Switch brand.

His words are quite vague and could have different meanings, it doesn’t exclude a reveal this year at all

It’s actually the opposite it looks like he put a deadline on Switch 1 first party support, which was quite unexpected
 
Nintendo will be key for Nintendo.

They won’t have all the Wii U golden ports for this next generation, they were very lucky with Switch being able to re-release all the Wii U games.

This time they will need new games from both 1st and 3rd party to sustain their schedule and growing audience
 
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From the Nikkei article :

- How would you apply the "spirit of originality" to the successor to the switch?

I can't give you any specifics. We are constantly researching and developing hardware, but in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, we will focus on expanding the switch business. This is not limited to the "next generation of switches," but the biggest hurdle in any era is whether we can deliver products that customers really want.



- Can we extend the lifecycle of the Switch yet?

We are still making software for switches for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. As long as we can maintain our momentum, we will work to expand the Switch business. In the fiscal year ending March 2024, we hope to sustain the momentum of Zelda and movies and link it to the holiday sales season. In terms of hardware, we will maximize demand not only for new hardware but also for second and replacement hardware.

Sounds like the focus is on Switch 1 this financial year and the system will be supported until at least early 2025. That isn’t entirely unexpected to be honest. I think we’ll get a reveal of Switch 2 very early in the next financial year based on these comments. I wouldn’t even rule out late March for a reveal even.
 
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FSR 3 or Frame Generation seems like a technology that would be for the followup to the T239 considering all the compromises that'd be needed to make it work.

Which honestly would be perfectly fine in my book as it would give plenty of time for it to improve and mature in the same way DLSS upscaling has.
 
I can't give you any specifics. We are constantly researching and developing hardware, but in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024, we will focus on expanding the switch business. This is not limited to the "next generation of switches,

This quote clearly means that he will include the next generation of Switches in the “Switch Business” that he is focusing on FY ending 2024, and that it will be a cross gen period
 
Do you feel it?
CvK2zVIUAAAT8KE.jpg
 
From the Nikkei article :
- Can we extend the lifecycle of the Switch yet?

We are still making software for switches for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025.
OIP.hbTsog94AXrqhQsSs6C7bQAAAA

That last quote is the oldest trick in the book
It's a given there's software in the next fiscal year ending March 2025. It doesn't mean it'll be there all year long, it just mean there's software for Switch between March 2024 and March 2025. Who would've thought? Luigi's Mansion 2 is already confirmed for Summer 2024 so it's a game in the next fiscal year. The TTYD remake is probably in it too, it's undated beyond the year. Those are non-answers basically and change nothing.
 
This translation seems more accurate

He basically saying nothing new except that Switch 1 will be supported till at least March 2025

He also mentions new hardware as in Switch 2 and second/replacement hardware as in Switch 1 for people with less budget

Expanding the Switch business could also mean launching Switch NG and keep building the Switch brand.

His words are quite vague and could have different meanings, it doesn’t exclude a reveal this year at all

It’s actually the opposite it looks like he put a deadline on Switch 1 first party support, which was quite unexpected
Switch 1 or cross-gen games till next fiscal year. After that I assume they will go all in the Switch 2 with no more Switch 1 first part releases.
 
This is the first I've heard of LPDDR5T. I wonder if that'll be in a Switch 2 Pro.

Do you think there's much chance of the RAM being clocked higher in the docked mode?
Sk Hynix announced it back in January. Not expecting it all though. I do expect different bandwidth clockspeeds in handheld and docked like current switch models. I'm thinking 68-88 GB/s and 102 for docked. I would only expect more than 102 GB/s, if Switch 2 ends up using a lpddr5x module instead of lpddr5. 88/102 and 133 GB/s are better bandwidths for handheld and docked modes of course.
 
This quote clearly means that he will include the next generation of Switches in the “Switch Business” that he is focusing on FY ending 2024, and that it will be a cross gen period

The way we're picking apart the wording here doesn't feel appropriate as it's being (machine?) translated.

Regardless, I would think the following makes a bit more sense given the context of the question:
This is not limited to the "next generation of switches,"
precedes and is describing the following statement.
but the biggest hurdle in any era is whether we can deliver products that customers really want.
 
Sk Hynix announced it back in January. Not expecting it all though. I do expect different bandwidth clockspeeds in handheld and docked like current switch models. I'm thinking 68-88 GB/s and 102 for docked. I would only expect more than 102 GB/s, if Switch 2 ends up using a lpddr5x module instead of lpddr5. 88/102 and 133 GB/s are better bandwidths for handheld and docked modes of course.

I mean one would hope that they would not go about making a chip with 6x the cores of the the Tegra X1 if they weren't planning to feed it properly. If they weren't willing to pay for fast RAM, wouldn't they actually be better off making a smaller chip and saving even more money that way?
 
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Re: Furukawa Interview

I asked my Japanese partner for a more accurate translation in English and the meaning behind those words.

Q: How will you apply the "spirit of innovation" to the successor of the Switch?

F:
"I can't say anything specific. We are always researching and developing hardware, but for the fiscal year ending in March 2024, we are focusing on expanding the Switch business. Whether it's for 'what comes after the Switch' or not, the biggest hurdle in any era is being able to deliver something that customers really want."


Meaning: The CEO is tight-lipped about any plans regarding a successor to the Switch, emphasizing that they're always involved in R&D. What stands out is their focus on customer needs; their decisions hinge on what the consumer actually desires, whether it's the Switch or its successor


Q: Can you still extend the lifecycle of the Switch?

F:
"Towards the fiscal year ending in March 2025, we are still making software for the Switch. As long as we can maintain momentum, we will work on expanding the Switch business. For the fiscal year ending in March 2024, we want to sustain the momentum of Zelda and the movie, and link it to the holiday season. For the hardware, we will maximize not only new demand but also demand for second units and replacements."

Meaning: They have plans to keep the Switch relevant at least until 2025. This includes leveraging popular franchises like Zelda and tying in multimedia efforts like movies to boost sales. They are also considering the 'secondary market,' meaning people buying second units or replacing their old ones.
 
Very convenient his Japanese partner that only he knows produces stuff like this.

It's a translation not a production.

He wouldn't call the next console the "next Switch/Switch Next" and officially confirm that it's a Switch 2 in an interview let's be realistic
 
Regarding the talk of March 2025, all he's saying is they have Switch games releasing next fiscal year, which we know about. Luigi's Mansion 2, Paper Mario...
 
Yeah my translation comes from a Japanese native not a machine.

It feels a bit like you didn’t like the comments because they seemed to indicate no reveal in 2023 and so you therefore modified the comments to make it sound like there’s a chance.

Obviously I could be wrong but I think we’ll need another source before we take this translation on board.
 
It feels a bit like you didn’t like the comments because they seemed to indicate no reveal in 2023 and so you therefore modified the comments to make it sound like there’s a chance.

Obviously I could be wrong but I think we’ll need another source before we take this translation on board.

I didn't "didn't like the comments" they are very vague, actually I like them as they seem to imply we will have at least 1 year cross-gen period.

I just wanted a real japanese person to review them and not rely on Google Translate/deepL

They don't seem to indicate any reveal is/isn't happening anyway, so you're quite reaching, you can keep your accusations though
 
Technically speaking, they only said that new hardware wasn’t being factored into the sales estimates for this fiscal year. That aside, your other arguments are valid.

With that said, the proposed timeframe mentioned to reputable sources like Eurogamer & VGC was H2 2024, not specifically the holidays. If anything, Nintendo probably has more reason to avoid the Holiday 2024 for the Switch 2 launch to make room for Pokémon.
Yes but I never saw a company announce a new product and say "surprise ! It wasn't included in our forecast so here are our updated expectations for this fiscal year, we lied to our investors just to keep the surprise for the fans".

For the release time frame, I said holiday 2024 but indeed I meant H2 but it is obvious that it wouldn't be released during the summer, it would likely be between the end of septembre and the end of november.
 
It feels a bit like you didn’t like the comments because they seemed to indicate no reveal in 2023 and so you therefore modified the comments to make it sound like there’s a chance.

Obviously I could be wrong but I think we’ll need another source before we take this translation on board.
Regardless of what the text in the article truly says, it still means nothing. Interviews like these have words that are all chosen carefully. The words mean whatever they need to mean in the future. If there is no console release next year, well this interview didn't indicate that. But if one does release, than this article didn't say it couldn't happen either. Looking at interviews like this where it's just corporate speak because they can't reveal anything is futile.
 
People seem to be forgetting that the last first party 3DS game released like 1½ years after the Switch came out. How long Nintendo plans to keep producing Switch software is quite meaningless, especially when a cross-gen period is very likely.
 
Yes but I never saw a company announce a new product and say "surprise ! It wasn't included in our forecast so here are our updated expectations for this fiscal year, we lied to our investors just to keep the surprise for the fans".

For the release time frame, I said holiday 2024 but indeed I meant H2 but it is obvious that it wouldn't be released during the summer, it would likely be between the end of septembre and the end of november.

The fiscal year predictions were solely about Switch 1, that's what Furukawa meant. Also his comment was only reported by a Bloomberg journalist known for remixing stuff, none of his comments were included in the actual Q&A
 
Not really no. I was really convinced we d get a presentation this year and release around march, but the recent nonsense feels discouraging in this respect. Am I the only one to feel this way ?
eh I'd say 2024 being the reveal year has felt pretty likely ever since the June direct with Mario Wonder being the big holiday release.

People don't like the reasoning but unless the console literally comes out in March, I don't see Nintendo taking any chances to kneecap their second biggest release of the year (even if the impact ends up being minimal).

My personal guess being March as the earliest possible time they reveal new hardware based on natedrake own sources.
 
Not really, no. If anything, the recent interview bolstered my March reveal/September release belief.

This year is truly about the Switch 1 & it having its going-away party with what will likely be its last big exclusive game (Mario Wonder).
I agree. Mario Wonder is the last big exclusive. Revealed in March followed by presentation in May-June and release in September.
 
The fiscal year predictions were solely about Switch 1, that's what Furukawa meant. Also his comment was only reported by a Bloomberg journalist known for remixing stuff, none of his comments were included in the actual Q&A
Yes but that's what I meant, whatever he meant, you don't need the perfect translation, what we got was enough to understand that he meant that there wouldn't be a new hardware for this fiscal year, that's all. No need to speculate like "oh why did he specifically said that, it probably means that Switch 2 will be released for holiday 2023 or early 2024" like most people do on this thread where hints are seen literally everywhere, when things are generally quite obvious.
 
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People seem to be forgetting that the last first party 3DS game released like 1½ years after the Switch came out. How long Nintendo plans to keep producing Switch software is quite meaningless, especially when a cross-gen period is very likely.
The last first-party title on 3DS actually launched 2 years after Switch came out (Kirby's Epic Yarn port launched in March 2019), which pretty much meant 3DS got support for two entire fiscal years alongside Switch. 3DS got third-party support for another 2 years or so after that, I think, until some time in 2021, meaning 8 years of first-party support and 10 years of third-party support.

Switch is both massively more popular and has a far more active and lucrative software market. Add to that cross-gen support being easier this time around given the tech context, and it's not crazy to assume that Nintendo are going to be continuing first-party Switch support for even longer than they continued with 3DS.
The last big exclusive... then a year of nothing?

I don't buy it.
Not entirely unprecedented for Nintendo to have that big a gap between major software titles, given we went 12 months from Super Mario Odyssey in October 2017 to Super Mario Party in October 2018, with only small/medium scale titles launching in that interim. That being said, I'm personally of the opinion that Nintendo hoped for bigger things from Labo in that period, and right now I'd still look at early next fiscal year (May through July, though I'd pick June as the sweetspot) for new hardware.

But I don't think it's impossible Nintendo are prepared to spend January through August riding things out on smaller scale and middle-tier software launches; they'd have the new console to point to as their next Big Thing and a September launch still means the hardware is available for half their next fiscal year.
 
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