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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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A Switch 2 reveal in November is also a good way for Nintendo to keep the conversation around them during the holidays, they don’t have any huge game dropping this month.

Then January will be all hyped up for their presentation,building momentum till the Smarch release, Peach game will be a consolation prize for the younger audience not able to upgrade yet

Mario RPG and Wario Ware aren’t considered huge games even if they are nice games, and you can tell by the marketing efforts surrounding them

Also that’s maybe why we getting all those Mario games during the potential Switch 2 Reveal to Release period, they know they are gonna take a loss somehow and are trying to mitigate it with their best selling franchise
 
I'm always impressed with this thread unwavering belief that the Switch 2 will happen as soon as humanly possible. We've done this for years now, and now that we know it's happening next year, you'd think it would be over, we have won. But no, we have to squeeze the announcement this year for a release as soon as March. Because it's what we do.
 
Charamiwa said:
I'm always impressed with this thread unwavering belief that the Switch 2 will happen as soon as humanly possible. We've done this for years now, and now that we know it's happening next year, you'd think it would be over, we have won. But no, we have to squeeze the announcement this year for a release as soon as March. Because it's what we do.
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Luffy mode on

YEAH! YES, WE DO!!!!

Luffy mode off

lemonfresh said:
God I love that gif so much
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It's pure positive energy.
 
Huh, this thread has gotten rather hard to follow for more casual lurkers lately, hasn't it? Around 500 posts a day now, and almost exclusively circular arguments about reveal/launch timing with some 8/5 nm and button colour talk sprinkled on top, though I guess that's to be expected when the performance level isn't really in question anymore.

Don't think I can really keep up, but based on everything that has been said, I'd wager there are at least two things 95+% of contributors here can agree on:
  1. We will know whether or not a March launch is in the works by the second half of November, or by the time of the Game Awards at the very latest. Within 7-10 weeks, in other words.
  2. If the release isn't planned for March, then by the end of February, we will still either have an official announcement about the release timing, or a practically-confirmed leaked/rumoured release window. That's 5 months away.
No matter how you look at it, the wait is almost over and we shall have some sort of certainty very soon.
 
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Are we really saying Mario RPG isn't a big game now to fit the November reveal agenda?

They can announce hardware the same month of a big game release.
 
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qwerp said:
Are we really saying Mario RPG isn't a big game now to fit the November reveal agenda?
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It just isn't a big game, but that's a nice addition to the collection

full.png
 
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so March is legitimately on the menu? It's true, the Pokemon leaker, it's all true! lol

seems a bit soon but November would have to the reveal timing if March was the release due to mass production ramping up.

the amiibo theory & bringing forward bundles to October paints some sort of picture for a window to announce something.

my money would be in May/June (reveal in Jan/Feb) but the great thing is a release sooner than H2 legitimately seems to be coming together.

i don't find arguments of it would overshadow xyz game or canablise holidays sales as particularly convincing counter-arguments. it's always going to overshadow something, Mario will be out the people buying $300 bundles this late in the Switch lifecycle are not the same people who will spend $500+ (including a game) selling out the launch.

as for launch titles, MP4 cross-gen is absolutely a given. i could buy into the no 3D Mario at launch if it's March but there has to be some type of exclusive title for launch. when the system is blown out they aren't going to show exclusive titles with none of them being available day 1. i also think a new 3D Mario & Mario Kart are far deeper in development (the timeline originally being for a 'Pro' model this year - T239 on 8nm?) than most would imagine and both of these games could literally be ready to launch any time next year.
 
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Mario Wonder is big enough to be Nintendo’s Oct/Nov/Dec game. Saying there is ‘no big November’ game is daft at best.

Do Sony not have a big holiday game then? As Spider-Man 2 also releases in October.
 
easternlights said:
Around 500 posts a day now, and almost exclusively circular arguments about reveal/launch timing with some 8/5 nm and button colour talk sprinkled on top, though I guess that's to be expected when the performance level isn't really in question anymore.
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At this point I think we all are just trying to will it into existence by posting in this thread
 
HankyPanky said:
as for launch titles, MP4 cross-gen is absolutely a given. i could buy into the no 3D Mario at launch if it's March but there has to be some type of exclusive title for launch. when the system is blown out they aren't going to show exclusive titles with none of them being available day 1. i also think a new 3D Mario & Mario Kart are far deeper in development (the timeline originally being for a 'Pro' model this year- T239 on 8nm?) than most would imagine and both of these games could literally be ready to launch any time next year.
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First party titles at launch:
  • Ambitious game from a well known IP
  • Casual, multiplayer game that make use of the console's new features

Nintendo has followed this precedent since the Wii. They only time they haven't since then was the 3DS (Nintendogs + Cats, Pilotwings) and the launch of that system flopped bad, so they wouldn't want a repeat.
 
Sol said:
I really hope the Switch 2 can properly utilize DLSS 3.5 (RT reconstruction). Early impressions from CP2077 are that it's almost magic.

www.pcgamer.com

I've tested Nvidia's latest ray tracing magic in Cyberpunk 2077 and it's a no-brainer: at worst it's just better-looking, at best it's that and a whole lot more performance

Nvidia's DLSS 3.5 Ray Reconstruction feature fits perfectly with Cyberpunk 2077's 2.0 added realism.
www.pcgamer.com www.pcgamer.com
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Still working on my dlss 3.5 breakdown, but basically : In its full desktop form, dlss 3.5 would be useful only in some edge cases. For the vast majority of RT workloads they'd be better off with a cutdown version.
 
Mario Wonder has likely been developed to be day 1 4k patch ready too. so instead of anything taking away from the other it's another selling point.
 
Here's how to make sure Mario Bros wonder wouldn't go under if there was a theoretical ReDraketed announcement:

Ray.Traced.Wonderseed.Sections.
 
qwerp said:
Are we really saying Mario RPG isn't a big game now to fit the November reveal agenda?

They can announce hardware the same month of a big game release.
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Nintendo's 2023 was all about not big multimillion seller niche games
 
ShadowFox08 said:
Yeah, I agree with you about the rise of digital. I'm a bit pessimistic about 512GB because

1. Nintendo historically offered lower storage history vs. their competitors. Wii U and Switch offered 8-64 GB, while PS3 and 360 offered 20-60GB at launch and 500 GB towards the end. PS4 and Xbone offered 500GB at launch, at least.
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512gb would still be less than what the competition is offering. Standard is a TB.
 
qwerp said:
First party titles at launch:
  • Ambitious game from a well known IP
  • Casual, multiplayer game that make use of the console's new features

Nintendo has followed this precedent since the Wii. They only time they haven't since then was the 3DS (Nintendogs + Cats, Pilotwings) and the launch of that system flopped bad, so they wouldn't want a repeat.
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i guess the question is whether a cross-gen Metroid would qualify as big enough. personally I don't think so and that a new, open world Mario would be by far the best candidate as a launch title. Rosalina was in the amiibo thing maybe Mario Galaxy 3?

at the same time Metroid will likely be ambitious, visually impressive and appeal to the sort of gamers who will buy up the system at launch. this could carry the launch along with a host of third party content and maybe even something unexpected - F-Zero? Star Fox?

then there's the absolute juggernaut that is Ridge Racer 8 🔥
 
Sin Drive said:
512gb would still be less than what the competition is offering. Standard is a TB.
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Sure, but if you're downloading a major title on PS5 or Series X you're looking at anything between 50 to 100GB with some now getting dangerously close to 200GB, so 512GB storage with Nintendo titles still making it anywhere between 20 to 40GB on the NG is an acceptable trade-off
 
Every Switch 2 Devkit comes with a little note from Nintendo, reading:

"Compression, motherfuckers. Do you use it?"

qwerp said:
It's hard to notice what is and isn't a joke in this thread sadly lol
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My above sentence is one.

Or is it not?
 
P4bl0 said:
It kinda is ? It was an obscure game at the end of the SNES that didn't even had a release in Europe, did most of his sales from Japan so it's kinda a niche game for the mainstream western audience
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Bro...

Its a MARIO rpg.

It doesn't matter if it didn't release in europe or didn't sell well in the west back in 96. The circumstances are different in 2023.
 
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Let's say the current information we have from the Nvidia leak is 100% accurate and nothing changes, and let's say that Kopite is 100% right and it is definitely the T239 at 8nm...

Would RT Reconstruction be possible with what we know so far?
 
FernandoRocker said:
Let's say the current information we have from the Nvidia leak is 100% accurate and nothing changes, and let's say that Kopite is 100% right and it is definitely the T239 at 8nm...

Would RT Reconstruction be possible with what we know so far?
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Based on what I read here, in order to preserve the number of tensor cores and other features, the GPU would have to be smaller due to the size of the die, around 400mhz+, that's as fast as an OG Switch GPU. So yeah you can have your cake and eat it too but at PS1 graphics lmao.
 
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FernandoRocker said:
Let's say the current information we have from the Nvidia leak is 100% accurate and nothing changes, and let's say that Kopite is 100% right and it is definitely the T239 at 8nm...

Would RT Reconstruction be possible with what we know so far?
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It’s possible on every other RTX GPU in existence so it’d be weird if it weren’t.
 
oracion said:
Mochi sneaks into TGS.
He seems to have arrived at the nearest station, Kaihin-Makuhari.

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I agree, it is a shame that they havent built a proper station right at the expo hall.

Man was that walk miserable when the typhoon hit last year. Though to be fair, you had to wait in line to get in anyways so how much was a shorter walk going to help.
 
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Kopite's original comment re T239 was all the way back in June 2021. this was at the same time there were rumours of dev-kits, DLSS etc. I don't believe an overclocked Mariko was ever on the cards but I do think the original plan was to launch a 'Pro' type system late 2022 which would have been T239 on 8nm. sometime quite soon after it's redesigned on a better node and this version of the chip nears completion around the time of the Nvidia hack.

Nintendo aren't sure when they're going to release this improved Switch so delay Zelda a year to buy time as it's a potential launch title. well before the end of 2022 they decide the system will not launch with Zelda and give it breathing room to redesign the controller and add potential new gimmick? potentially the window for manufacturing bigger volumes at a lower cost also widens so it's preferable to wait.

just thinking aloud but this is my timeline as to what may have transpired since we heard about a Switch 2 T239 etc. it makes sense there may have been a T239 on 8nm (hence Kopite keeps repeating this) but it was canned quite early around 2H 2021.
 
Theory:

What if we get Mario Galaxy 2 as a Spring 2024 launch game remake ? That would explain why they didn't put in on Switch 1.. It would also work with Peach game releasing on Switch 1 around the same timing.

A lot of people missed out on that game, and I feel like Nintendo wants to reuse their AAA games that didn't have much time to shine

I also feel like the Galaxy world would be ideal to showcase the Raytracing and other bells and whistles

Then MP4 in Summer/Fall 2024 and Mario Kart 10 for Holiday
The new 3D Mario in 2025 when the new system has a decent userbase

I'm thinking this because the Rosalia amiibo is coming back out of the blue too
 
So in thinking a bit further on the Xbox on ARM possibility, I realize now that while my hypothetical far in the future was probably a bit too hypothetical and too far in the future for anyone to really speculate upon, I have a different way to frame my question that might be easier to answer. Nintendo's biggest advantage over Valve, outside of OS, APIs, etc. is that a portable ARM CPU is just capable of being faster while still draining less energy and drawing more heat than a glorified laptop x86 CPU. But, despite this, and admittedly with problems, the Steam Deck has seemingly held up well enough with most PS5/Series X games that it can at least run them, with the expected amount of possible work to get a PC game to run the way you want it. Now this is due in large part to modern PC games becoming more and more scalable but....

....Lets say we invert the scenario. Say Microsoft had decided to get really far ahead on their transition to ARM, and developed their own custom, console targeted ARM CPU cores and used them in the Series X, launching in 2020. They have some fancy compatibility layer for the One all ready to go or they just dont care about backwards compatibility in this case that really doesn't matter. Nintendo's still planning to launch a Switch 2 in 2024 and really only has ARM to choose from, and to be fair, there is far more on the market already optimized for high power applications in the portable space with ARM than their is at all for console/PC spec ARM processors. Given the willingness to pay for the latest nodes and the latest cores, could Nintendo have, in this hypothetical situation, released a Switch 2 within their realistic power budget, with an ARM CPU that could keep up with Microsoft's hypothetical 2020 ARM CPU well enough to at least run most current gen exclusives? Under the assumption that Nintendo will have high enough profit margins with the real world Switch 2 that they would have room to break even paying for better CPU cores if they REALLY wanted to. Also under the assumption that they can even GET the latest and greatest nodes, given they seem to be almost entirely exclusive to Apple who seemingly is on good terms with TSMC unlike Nvidia who is the one buying production line space for Nintendo and isn't exactly on good terms with TSMC.
 
ziggyrivers said:
How can a apparent backwards compatible successor console undermine software sales?

Serious question
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ILikeFeet said:
it doesn't if you look at Last of Us part 2
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or Ghost of Tsushima. Sony released two of their most successful PS4 titles within months of the PS5's release, with TLOU2 releasing a mere week after the big PS5 blowout event.

They can reveal and release this thing whenever but this notion that people with Switches will stop buying the games they're interested in because a Switch 2 that plays Switch games was just revealed is silly. As is the idea that a console's seventh holiday on the market is more important than getting the message out there for a successor they've said they want to transition into better than in prior generations.
 
Lio said:
or Ghost of Tsushima. Sony released two of their most successful PS4 titles within months of the PS5's release, with TLOU2 releasing a mere week after the big PS5 blowout event.

They can reveal and release this thing whenever but this notion that people with Switches will stop buying the games they're interested in because a Switch 2 that plays Switch games was just revealed is silly. As is the idea that a console's seventh holiday on the market is more important than getting the message out there for a successor they've said they want to transition into better than in prior generations.
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Then why not announce it in August.
 
InfinityWarrior88 said:
Why are you obsessed with August? LOL
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Because it would give a normal amount of time between announcement and release for a March release and it wouldn't conflict with any Nintendo releases and it would be before the heavy promotional cycles of the four games Nintendo is releasing this holiday.

November to March is the shortest time from announcement to release of any modern console and would have a chance of undermining the promotion happening for WarioWare, Mario RPG, and Christmas shopping.
 
tgtCG said:
So in thinking a bit further on the Xbox on ARM possibility, I realize now that while my hypothetical far in the future was probably a bit too hypothetical and too far in the future for anyone to really speculate upon, I have a different way to frame my question that might be easier to answer. Nintendo's biggest advantage over Valve, outside of OS, APIs, etc. is that a portable ARM CPU is just capable of being faster while still draining less energy and drawing more heat than a glorified laptop x86 CPU. But, despite this, and admittedly with problems, the Steam Deck has seemingly held up well enough with most PS5/Series X games that it can at least run them, with the expected amount of possible work to get a PC game to run the way you want it. Now this is due in large part to modern PC games becoming more and more scalable but....

....Lets say we invert the scenario. Say Microsoft had decided to get really far ahead on their transition to ARM, and developed their own custom, console targeted ARM CPU cores and used them in the Series X, launching in 2020. They have some fancy compatibility layer for the One all ready to go or they just dont care about backwards compatibility in this case that really doesn't matter. Nintendo's still planning to launch a Switch 2 in 2024 and really only has ARM to choose from, and to be fair, there is far more on the market already optimized for high power applications in the portable space with ARM than their is at all for console/PC spec ARM processors. Given the willingness to pay for the latest nodes and the latest cores, could Nintendo have, in this hypothetical situation, released a Switch 2 within their realistic power budget, with an ARM CPU that could keep up with Microsoft's hypothetical 2020 ARM CPU well enough to at least run most current gen exclusives? Under the assumption that Nintendo will have high enough profit margins with the real world Switch 2 that they would have room to break even paying for better CPU cores if they REALLY wanted to. Also under the assumption that they can even GET the latest and greatest nodes, given they seem to be almost entirely exclusive to Apple who seemingly is on good terms with TSMC unlike Nvidia who is the one buying production line space for Nintendo and isn't exactly on good terms with TSMC.
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I don't know if we'll ever see ARM in Xbox and PlayStation. x86 will inevitably be replaced eventually, but so will ARM. I think something like RISC-V is going to be more likely (companies like Nvidia are already doing RISC-V stuff, albeit for their GPUs)
 
Nintendo will be using quantum computers by the time Microsoft transitions to ARM.

You don’t have hypothesize because Apple is already doing what Microsoft should have done. What Intel should have done. People need to be reminded that Microsoft is a software company. Always has been. Their hardware has never been good. Surface was almost there, but it turned to sh!te. Microsoft is a very outdated company, all things considered. Windows is extremely outdated, slow, buggy, and bloated. Unfortunately, they can’t move away from that because it will break compatibility with old apps. They've been trying to cut the bloat, but it’s going to be a very long process.
 
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