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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Orin - 8nm
Thor - 5nm (probably)
Drake - also 5nm (probably)

I hate to burst your bubble, but Thor won't be portable - it'll be larger than a RTX 4090. Drake already represents the small version of the tech in Thor.



You can see the leap from PS4 to Drake (a "portable" PS4) was bigger than the leap from PS4 to PS5 - and a similarly sized leap isn't on the roadmap at all.

But as you originally said "we must be hitting the limit for node shrinks" and we kinda are. But Ada doesn't have any TFLOP's that Drake doesn't have. Drake uses all of Ada's power saving tech. Drake remains the best bang-for-watt technology out there.

Thanks for all the info. I really like how Drake shares a lot of the features that Ada has. I had no idea that Thor would be so big though! I thought it would be similar (with similar variants) to Orin and Xavier before it.
 
Whatever this thing is going to be called, it has to communicate that it's the next system with zero room for ambiguity. I also feel that whatever gimmick it'll have will be limited to software and not be intrusive, like the Joy-Cons. I know it sounds boring, but I genuinely believe that the name is going to be close to, if not outright called "Switch 2"; that name would conform to the latter two statements and what I personally believe Nintendo is also going for. Otherwise, they'll probably go with something like "Nintendo Switch 2nd Gen", as others have suggested in the past.

Agree. I know its not the most popular name here in the forums, but Switch 2 is very straight forward and consumers will immediately understand it is the successor. There are other options of course, but its hard to argue that Switch 2 avoids any potential confusion with consumers. People need to remember that the CEO for Nintendo is no longer the creative type but instead is more business oriented. There needs to be a balance between the creatives and business conservatives at Nintendo. Miyamoto should still have plenty of influence on the software development side, but on the hardware side of things he needs to be more limited. With Switch they now have an established platform that is positioned for long term success that doesn't need to reinvent itself. I do not see the appeal of being able to play portably and also docking to the TV becoming any less attractive than it has with Switch. Currently Nintendo has this market to them selves with no real competition and seeing as how the current CEO is more conservative, I would be very surprised if they deviated far from what has been a monumental success.
 
I found this, would be nice if it's true:

Reveal:
Adding further credibility to the theory that we could get Switch 2 news from Nintendo itself in the very near future are the reports that a new Nintendo Direct presentation is being prepared. An online tipster has indicated it will be held between September 11 and 15. This digital event would come just before the Tokyo Game Show, an annual tradeshow held in Nintendo’s home country. This would be the perfect opportunity for new hardware to be showcased. It’s scheduled to kick off on September 21, and Nintendo is already confirmed to be in attendance.


Launch:
Currently, the general opinion is that Nintendo might launch a Switch 2 or NG Switch in the second half of 2024. However, this recent report from TechInsights, along with a previous third-party forecast that also stated the likelihood of an earlier launch, points to a potential Nintendo Switch 2 release date falling in the first half of 2024. More specifically, the prediction here is for a March or April release, which would help Nintendo make ground on Sony in terms of global console shipments.


 
If it's not Switch 2 they're moving away from Switch as a whole and I'm very very confident in saying that.

I also wouldn't put any stock in hardware announcements before the year is out. Nintendo very rarely announces new major hardware in a Direct and has never done it in the Switch era.
 
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I found this, would be nice if it's true:

Reveal:
Adding further credibility to the theory that we could get Switch 2 news from Nintendo itself in the very near future are the reports that a new Nintendo Direct presentation is being prepared. An online tipster has indicated it will be held between September 11 and 15. This digital event would come just before the Tokyo Game Show, an annual tradeshow held in Nintendo’s home country. This would be the perfect opportunity for new hardware to be showcased. It’s scheduled to kick off on September 21, and Nintendo is already confirmed to be in attendance.


Launch:
Currently, the general opinion is that Nintendo might launch a Switch 2 or NG Switch in the second half of 2024. However, this recent report from TechInsights, along with a previous third-party forecast that also stated the likelihood of an earlier launch, points to a potential Nintendo Switch 2 release date falling in the first half of 2024. More specifically, the prediction here is for a March or April release, which would help Nintendo make ground on Sony in terms of global console shipments.



Yes this report is from end of august and went quite under the radars, surprising it pops now - it was first reported by fwd-bwd on this thread
 
I found this, would be nice if it's true:

Reveal:
Adding further credibility to the theory that we could get Switch 2 news from Nintendo itself in the very near future are the reports that a new Nintendo Direct presentation is being prepared. An online tipster has indicated it will be held between September 11 and 15. This digital event would come just before the Tokyo Game Show, an annual tradeshow held in Nintendo’s home country. This would be the perfect opportunity for new hardware to be showcased. It’s scheduled to kick off on September 21, and Nintendo is already confirmed to be in attendance.


Launch:
Currently, the general opinion is that Nintendo might launch a Switch 2 or NG Switch in the second half of 2024. However, this recent report from TechInsights, along with a previous third-party forecast that also stated the likelihood of an earlier launch, points to a potential Nintendo Switch 2 release date falling in the first half of 2024. More specifically, the prediction here is for a March or April release, which would help Nintendo make ground on Sony in terms of global console shipments.


The second part is worth considering as a counterpoint to the H2 launch rumors (though it seems more like an "industry expectation" from TechInsights rather than real info), but the first part isn't. Directs have nothing to do with hardware reveals, especially not the regularly scheduled September Direct, likely to happen at the exact same time this year as it did last year.
 
People weren't confused about the Wii U just because of the name. They were confused because of the marketing and messaging that came with the name. The ads that didn't show the console itself, that didn't talk about games now being in HD, that didn't make any attempt to say it's a break from the Wii in any way.

And a lot of that was intentional on their part, they thought people wanted "more Wii" so they intentionally kinda blurred the lines between successor and peripheral in the marketing. The problem was by the time it launched people really didn't want "more Wii" and there was nothing independently compelling to most consumers beyond that.

Fair enough. What’s weird though is the use of the letter U to mention it’s different. With Wii, it was “we would like to play” seemingly that it’s about everyone playing together. With Wii U, it seemed like you saying with blurring the lines, it’s now suddenly about “you” again.

Yes, the naming scheme wasn’t the only issue, but I will say with a better naming scheme, the marketing may have been able to write itself.

Wii HD, Super Wii, or Wii 2 would’ve been easy to communicate with folks, despite the insistence of using the Gamepad as the forefront of the device.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I feel in some alternate reality, the name of the Wii U was called Wii 2 (or Wii Two, Wii Too), and the marketing wasn’t as dire.

But we now have the Switch, and in that same alternate universe, the Switch may not exist. 🤷‍♂️
 
People weren't confused about the Wii U just because of the name.
100% true fact, I didn't know that the Wii U wasn't a Wii add-on until after the Switch was announced.

Thanks for all the info. I really like how Drake shares a lot of the features that Ada has. I had no idea that Thor would be so big though! I thought it would be similar (with similar variants) to Orin and Xavier before it.
Orin's variants (AGX, NX, Nano) are all the same chip, physically. When they come off the line, there will be flaws in wafer that will inevitably make some subcomponent unusable on some of the chips. Rather than trash the whole chip, they use a laser to disable access to that part of the hardware, and then sell the lower-powered chip at a lower cost.

An Orin Nano is a full Orin that has at least half of the GPU and the CPU cluster that works. Orin NX has 3/4s of the CPu and half the GPU. AGX has the full chip working.

The term for this is floorsweeping - you can think of it literally as sweeping through the floor trash, looking for treasure.

When a chip comes off the line, no matter how much of it is working, there are micro variations in each chip that effect how efficient it is at carrying electricity. Less efficient means more heat at higher clock speeds, means it tends to fail at those clock speeds. Each chip is tested for efficiency, and the best ones are put in the top bin and then the chips are graded - binned - beneath that.

In the past, floorsweeping and binning are separate processes, but they are so intermingled now, that 90% of the time, we use binning to mean both. Between the two, we get all of the variants of Orin, except for Drake.

Orin Nano - the bottom bin, most floorswept
Orin NX 8GB - the bottom bin, less floorswept
Orin NX 16GB - higher bin, same floorsweep
Orin AGX 32GB - most of the chip works
Orin AGX Industrial - all the chip works
Orin AGX 64 GB - the whole chip works, better bin
Orin AGX Developer kit - whole chip works, best bin possible

Physically, all of these are the same size, because they're all the same chip. Drake is a different beast. Drake is a different design entirely, that shares components with Orin, but is a different chip. If the Orin variants are siblings, Drake is a first cousin.

Thor is probably built on Ada. The next Nintendo console, assuming it's Nvidia driven, won't be based on Ada, or Blackwell (what comes after ada) but whatever comes not one, but two gens after that. We'll be off the current roadmap by then.
 
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Do we think there's any likelihood the next Direct may confirm the NG's existence and state it's coming soon or set up a reveal event for it in a month or two?

Keeping in mind the way Furukawa runs the business side of things is quite different and more straightforward or heck even more 'corporate' than his predecessors
 
Do we think there's any likelihood the next Direct may confirm the NG's existence and state it's coming soon or set up a reveal event for it in a month or two?

Keeping in mind the way Furukawa runs the business side of things is quite different and more straightforward or heck even more 'corporate' than his predecessors
Small, but yes, I think there is a chance. Even if it isn't IN the direct... Directly, it could be briefly before, and this is a cross gen direct. Briefly afterwards, with a mention of a "special announcement" in the direct. Or indeed within the direct itself. Wouldn't be the first time hardware with more processing power was revealed in a Direct. Definitely the first time for a new generation, but I don't think that's all that substantial a difference. The calibre of game between 3DS and New 3DS exclusive was basically generational.
 
911NGIO1WsL.jpg
Wii_U_Basic_Set_8GB_251419.2.jpg


When you've got the marketing emphasizing the new gamepad showing off similar looking games to the Wii, similar looking accessories on store shelves,, the 'u' icon being this rinky dink thing next to the very prominent 'Wii' logo, similar design language between the Wii's controls and the tablet, the console itself being tucked away and looking similar to a horizontal Wii... I'm not exactly surprised there was brand confusion.

Even retailers messed up.

xlghte3muljz.jpg


Nintendo would need to mess up significantly to achieve this level of confusion. I don't think a new Switch would be confused as a tablet accessory. If it were named something like Switch 4K, consumers may initially see it as an optional upgrade not necessary if they don't own 4K TVs / played handheld. But I think people are more likely to purchase upgraded mobile devices every year than stationary consoles. I think a worse move is shipping a console that looks, smells, and functions like a Switch but is called something else entirely.
 
Small, but yes, I think there is a chance. Even if it isn't IN the direct... Directly, it could be briefly before, and this is a cross gen direct. Briefly afterwards, with a mention of a "special announcement" in the direct. Or indeed within the direct itself. Wouldn't be the first time hardware with more processing power was revealed in a Direct. Definitely the first time for a new generation, but I don't think that's all that substantial a difference. The calibre of game between 3DS and New 3DS exclusive was basically generational.

Any examples ?

I find it interesting that Nintendo is putting out all the big announcements (Wonder direct, Switch bundles) out of the way already (of something bigger ?)
 
Just saying: Nintendo is not allowed to announce prices in Europe.
Remember the Nintendo Switch Presentation before launch in 2017 when they basically just said the prices in Japan, Americas and then Europe they just go "please check with your local retailer".
It's not exactly that, it's Price fixing that is forbidden (it's why they talk price when it's on their store). There's a price of course, it's in the agreement.
Price fixing means the publisher can't prevent the seller to not discount that price (on his margin) for competitive purpose, as long as it's not at a loss.
 
911NGIO1WsL.jpg
Wii_U_Basic_Set_8GB_251419.2.jpg


When you've got the marketing emphasizing the new gamepad showing off similar looking games to the Wii, similar looking accessories on store shelves,, the 'u' icon being this rinky dink thing next to the very prominent 'Wii' logo, similar design language between the Wii's controls and the tablet, the console itself being tucked away and looking similar to a horizontal Wii... I'm not exactly surprised there was brand confusion.

Even retailers messed up.

xlghte3muljz.jpg


Nintendo would need to mess up significantly to achieve this level of confusion. I don't think a new Switch would be confused as a tablet accessory. If it were named something like Switch 4K, consumers may initially see it as an optional upgrade not necessary if they don't own 4K TVs / played handheld. But I think people are more likely to purchase upgraded mobile devices every year than stationary consoles. I think a worse move is shipping a console that looks, smells, and functions like a Switch but is called something else entirely.
Missed out on the entire Wii U era after not realising for years it wasn't just an updated Wii model with a touchscreen controller (honestly even the TV ads put so much focus on using the pad that it just looked like a new controller setup), it didn't help there wasn't much in the way of promoting the titles aside from the Xenoblade X edition box on the Tesco shelves, and apart from the Mario Kart, Just Dance mat or Wii Sports attachments you'd take out during a family night or house party, the Wii itself wasn't a serious gaming console

It also didn't really help that going back to look at the title line-up trailers, and the E3 events etc., there's a ridiculous amount of emphasis on the Wii itself to the point that even people who saw all those events didn't completely realise it was supposed to be an entirely separate effort
 
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Any examples ?
The Nintendo Directs for Japan on 29 August 2014, Oceania on 14 September 2014, and the Americas and Europe on 14 January 2015, for the New Nintendo 3DS and/or New Nintendo 3DS XL.





But saying that, I don't expect hardware announcements during Nintendo Directs in the future. I expect hardware announcements to be completely separate from Nintendo Directs.
 
Any examples ?

I find it interesting that Nintendo is putting out all the big announcements (Wonder direct, Switch bundles) out of the way already (of something bigger ?)
New Nintendo 3DS! Not a new generation, but certainly more power, new gimmicks, and more features. Would they do this for a whole new generation? I don't know, but Directs get a LOT of eyeballs, and the current CEO is firmly a business minded individual. Given it seems like a decent idea, it's possible that they will.
 
The Nintendo Directs for Japan on 29 August 2014, Oceania on 14 September 2014, and the Americas and Europe on 14 January 2015, for the New Nintendo 3DS and/or New Nintendo 3DS XL.





But saying that, I don't expect hardware announcements during Nintendo Directs in the future. I expect hardware announcements to be completely separate from Nintendo Directs.

We got hardware in the Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, technically. It would not be unprecedented.
 
I leave a tab of this thread open when I'm working.

today a guy who works with me asked what in the world I keep reading so much here.

I didn't know what to answer.
Say it is porn... Or the Pereyra guy Palmeiras is said to be negotiating with. It will give you a smaller headache.
 
Small, but yes, I think there is a chance. Even if it isn't IN the direct... Directly, it could be briefly before, and this is a cross gen direct. Briefly afterwards, with a mention of a "special announcement" in the direct. Or indeed within the direct itself. Wouldn't be the first time hardware with more processing power was revealed in a Direct. Definitely the first time for a new generation, but I don't think that's all that substantial a difference. The calibre of game between 3DS and New 3DS exclusive was basically generational.
Maybe I dreamt this but I remember this video from E3 2016 with Reggie in front a yellow animated background referencing the NX would will be unveiled later in the year when talking about the platforms Zelda BOTW would eventually release on. I've spent a good 30 minutes trying to find it but no luck. I'll keep digging.

In fairness this was after they had already mentioned the existence of the NX to investors.

Edit: Here we all. E3 2015 at timestamp 10:28. Reggie referencing the next generation platform in a Digital Event. Yeah not a direct and certainly different circumstances but it's the closest thing I could find to Nintendo mentioning a new platform in something that resembles a direct.
 
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We got hardware in the Super Mario Bros. Wonder Direct, technically.
Personally, I consider special editions of already released hardware model(s) (e.g. Mario Red Edition OLED model) to be quite different from new hardware models (e.g. New Nintendo 3DS lineup).

I was primarily talking about the latter.
 
Speaking of this naming talk with Switch 2, Nintendo has used all different kinds of ways for new names whether to introduce a new hardware feature, a non-numerical way of denoting a sequel, or whatever the Wii U naming scheme was.

But even now we have the Switch, the Switch Lite, and now the Switch OLED. OLED appears to communicate well with consumers, so wonder if say Switch 4K, or Switch Ultra HD could work.

Though admittedly, Switch Ultra does sound kinda cool.
The risk with Switch 4K is that it communicates that the reason to get one is to play Switch games in 4K - and, conversely, implying that there's no need to upgrade if you're not worried about 4K. (Some of us are still happy with 1080p TVs.)

Beyond that, I don't have a lot of thoughts on the name. I feel like Switch 2 or Super Switch or Switch Advance or Switch Ultra all communicate next-gen just fine, although only one of them leaves easy room for a Switch 3 down the line if Nintendo decide to hold onto the branding for longer.
 
Maybe I dreamt this but I remember this video from E3 2016 with Reggie in front a yellow animated background referencing the NX would will be unveiled later in the year when talking about the platforms Zelda BOTW would eventually release on. I've spent a good 30 minutes trying to find it but no luck. I'll keep digging.

In fairness this was after they had already mentioned the existence of the NX to investors.
After announcing NX in 2015, Nintendo had said publicly they wouldn't be talking more about it until 2016. In April 2016, they announced that it would be released in March 2017 and that the then-unnamed BotW would get a simultaneous release on it. Then it was radio silence until the day before the reveal in October.

Reggie did appear in a video from E3 2016, but all he did in it (besides holding a moment of silence for a recent mass shooting... America!) was cue up the BotW reveal.
 
Beyond that, I don't have a lot of thoughts on the name. I feel like Switch 2 or Super Switch or Switch Advance or Switch Ultra all communicate next-gen just fine, although only one of them leaves easy room for a Switch 3 down the line if Nintendo decide to hold onto the branding for longer.
True. Switch 2 is a future-proofed name that avoids the consumer confusion of 'What's the different between Switch Advance and Switch Ultra?" down the line. Like how the Xbox naming scheme is kind of a mess (360 -> One -> Series). Admittingly Xbox's marketing does a better job of communicating a next-gen console so I'm not ruling anything out.
 
But that's exactly my point. When naming the OLED model they chose a name that makes it extremely clear that it's a variant of the existing Switch with an OLED screen. When naming their next generation hardware by the same logic we should expect them to choose a name that makes it extremely clear that it's a next generation Switch. I haven't read a single good suggestion other than Switch 2 which does that.
It should be called Nintendo Switch Wonder 🤭

It’s imaginative enough to leave room for interpretation that it’s a console for a new era of ✨WONDER✨
 
since this is a hardware thread can we all agree not to post what someone leaks of the Nintendo Direct here in this thread, that Pyoro guy really ruined the last direct for me and wish i had went in blind
 
New Nintendo 3DS! Not a new generation, but certainly more power, new gimmicks, and more features. Would they do this for a whole new generation? I don't know, but Directs get a LOT of eyeballs, and the current CEO is firmly a business minded individual. Given it seems like a decent idea, it's possible that they will.
They can make the same sort of attention with a special press event, like they did with Switch. In fact, an announcement outside their usual schedule is guaranteed to bring in even more attention.

In any case, using general Directs to showcase new hardware is probably not the best idea because it runs the risk of competing for time or overshadowing other announcements. It's better to just create a dedicated event so all the important info can be conveyed smoothly and exclusives can be show properly.

(Even more so if there's major gimmicks involved, at which point hands-on demonstrations are pretty much obligatory).
 
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I wonder if us defaulting to AR/VR for gimmicks (or even no gimmick at all) is a lack of imagination on our end. It's not like technology for video games has plateaued or anything, but it feels like we are making enough suggestions that sound innovative or push the envelope for game design. Perhaps it's our collective trauma from the Wii U days or maybe it's simply not worth entertaining, because many of the Switch's features aren't integral to its core, unlike the portability.

Nintendo might figure something out, but it's hard to imagine what they'll do to make the successor stand out as more than just a more powerful Switch without a.) getting in the way of the system's core features and b.) having a new feature that is appealing in its own right.

The Switch can be considered a culmination of Nintendo's endeavors throughout their tenure as console manufacturers, with the systems features mimicking others from Nintendo's past systems. For all we know, the successor could simply be an evolution of all of these features; more accurate Joy-Cons, a better touch screen, maybe even haptic feedback ala the PS5. Basically, it could be a more capable Switch in more than just specs and DLSS.
 
Nintendo Switcharoo
This actually isn't bad. I mean it is bad, but it does the job of saying "these things are connected" while at the same time saying "this is a distinct product".

I do think that Nintendo will pull a 3DS or iPhone 3G - or even an Xbox 360. I think there is a way (and I can't think of it but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist) to name the product in a way that distinguishes is from it's predecessor, while dodging the simple - and sometimes difficult to say - "2"
 
Not NG Switch-related but I'm curious about what other people think about this:

When Nintendo inevitably puts their feet into the VR/AR space with their own device, would it be better for them to release it as an addon for their current-gen hardware or as an standalone device that utilizes the same architecture as their main console (maybe even the same hardware)?
 
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