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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Look over there said:
For example, here's something that occurred to me today. Just like how when single core progression slowed down, CPU design moved over to multi core, I think that there's potential for multi-game/task design.
Imagine something similar to split screen couch co-op, but instead of 2 players, it's 1 player controlling both sides. The left side of the controller is used for the left side's input; the right side of the controller for the right half. Granted, this essentially asks for 'games designed to be playable with one hand'. So directions + few command buttons.
One example would be, say, turn based JRPGs with stories following two perspectives. Conventionally, maybe you'd be alternating between the perspectives. But if you have multithreading grunt to spare, why not play both simultaneously? Ok, reading text would be annoying; would probably need to like, use the touchscreen to maximize one side/minimize the other when it's story time. Or it's an opportunity for an attachment that's basically a return of that Game Boy accessory that was... a larger screen or magnifying glass? Forgot which.
Aside from that, platformers, shoot-em-ups, anything else doable with a NES level of inputs. Imagine operating two at the same time. Hell, would it necessarily be two of the same genre? No, I say!
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Having each half of the controller controlling separate things is like, already a thing that pops up periodically. The most recent example being Bayonetta Origins.
 
Cybergatuno said:
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Releasing 2 consoles would roughly split the user base.
It would certainly split the development teams.
With the current investment, they would only release half the games for each platform, to half the audience.
Collective mind-share and media attention would be split as well, loosing ground to competition.

That doesn't sound like a recipe for success.
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Or it could near double the userbase, like what happened with the Wii and DS.
 
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Pokemaniac said:
An Ampere GPU cannot run code compiled for a Maxwell GPU without very extensive modifications that we currently have no evidence of. There will necessarily be some software emulation involved.
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I realize it's not very helpful, but there is some spec (don't remember) where GA10F had a version higher than Orin but lower than Lovelace. Could have been cuda? Or shader model? It's buried somewhere in this thread, I couldn't find it.

Anyway since Drake is the only chip with this specific version, some people speculated it could be related to Maxwell BC.

Edit:

v2-f5d85b7809d5b9348f2469a75612f763_720w.webp

I think it could be this, which of course crops a little bit to early.
 
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grobla123 said:
I know a lot of us have assumed a fairly robust DLSS solution for Redrakted. But remember this is Nintendo, and I don't know how hard they would go on tensor cores and newer tech (and it seems like the Redrakted hardware was finalized a while ago). I wouldn't be surprised if they have a customized "lite" solution they worked with Nvidia for... like not quite at a DLSS 2.0 level, let alone frame gen. Then consider that upscaling from low resolutions may have bad artifacting and probably wont do much on handheld mode. A DLSS solution will certainly help Redrakted, but I don't know that it will be the "magic" that it is on PC. Or I my vibe is wrong and they just got everything needed for a full fat DLSS solution, who knows. Or super bad end, somehow no DLSS solution (or like garbage DLSS 1.0 tier solution) at all somehow, despite all the implications from the leak. Imagine the outcry.
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The entire discussion thrust of this thread is primarily based on knowledge of the the Drake “T239” Nintendo SoC leak from the Nvidia hack last year.

These leaks came from data mining of Nvidia’s DLSS 2.2 sourecode. All the references to NVN api and the software/hardware targets are from that.

So if this is the thing that is releasing soon, someone has absolutely been running it through DLSS 2.2.

If this isn’t the thing being released soon, this thread needs to be locked and restarted completely.

Pokemaniac said:
An Ampere GPU cannot run code compiled for a Maxwell GPU without very extensive modifications that we currently have no evidence of. There will necessarily be some software emulation involved.
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I know this is going to sound flippant and combative, but I’m honestly asking and I literally want to know:

So when I swapped out my GTX 980 card (Maxwell) in my pc and replaced with an rtx 3080 ti (Ampere)…I could play every game in my Steam library just like I was with my GTX 980 the day before. No problem.

What am I missing here, what’s the difference. Extensive modifications? Software emulation involved? (admitted noob in this area)
 
Looking at the situation in a business setting I really doubt we get any kind of reveal this week. They don't want to hit their own Switch sales before the release of Wonder unless they will do a heavy price drop so that people still are willing to buy a Switch even when they know a new one is coming :p.

I even doubt they will do it before Black Friday and/or Holidays.

But Nintendo surprised me before so yeah.
 
My Tulpa said:
I know this is going to sound flippant and combative, but I’m honestly asking and I literally want to know:

So when I swapped out my GTX 980 card (Maxwell) in my pc and replaced with an rtx 3080 ti (Ampere)…I could play every game in my Steam library just like I was with my GTX 980 the day before. No problem.

What am I missing here, what’s the difference. Extensive modifications? Software emulation involved? (admitted noob in this area)
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Shaders on PC are dealt with by drivers realtime (or precompiled when first launching the game in some cases). For all modern consoles, shaders come precompiled on the software package for the specific GPU of the System. Maxwell and Ampere instructions aren't compatible, so a compatibility layer of some kind (be it a precompilation before running the game, be it realtime emulation) will be needed.
 
MrBones said:
Nobody on this forum will like my answer, but:

Multiple hardware SKUs. Diverge the console and handheld lines again.

Nintendo achieved their greatest success (Wii+DS at 250m sales) when they supported two systems. More systems on the market = more sales. The hard cap for a single system is 150, and I don't see that changing.

My armchair business idea is a traditional console alongside a purposefully underpowered handheld system centered around a core gimmick (ala the DS). You could sell the handheld system for cheap and have rapid turnaround time for game development due to the lower scope. The popularity of indie games proves smaller scoped games aren't a inherently sales inhibitor.
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Nintendo is right now at it greatest success, maybe you could argue in terms of brand exposure they did better in the Wii + DS era (I can't tell), but by most other relevant metrics they have never been as successful as right now.

I think you are right though when you say Nintendo could potentially split again their hardware SKUs but for it to actually make sense it should happen under two condition:

  • The new SKU (in addition to the portable/hybrid one) should offer a different way to play to any other device on the market. There is no room for simply another Xbox of PlayStation.
  • The systems should share (and by that I mean be natively cross-compatible) at least about 70% of thier software library. Meaning I can buy Super Mario Wonder and play it on both systems without limitation, leaving just a small share of titles tied to a single platform.
 
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If Switch 2 is backwards compatible, lots of people will sell or trade in their switches, which will be bought second hand by new customers who might buy Mario Kart 8 and BotW, maybe a Pokémon.

If it's not backwards compatible, a lot more people will keep it, and Nintendo miss out on those software sales.
 
VegiHam said:
If Switch 2 is backwards compatible, lots of people will sell or trade in their switches, which will be bought second hand by new customers who might buy Mario Kart 8 and BotW, maybe a Pokémon.

If it's not backwards compatible, a lot more people will keep it, and Nintendo miss out on those software sales.
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I don't think there's a large population of people who didn't get into Switch gaming because of high entrance cost.

During sales you can get a Switch for 200$-250$. Second-hand console would be like what, 100$-150$? Not that big of a difference, considering people are paying 60 bucks per game.

No BC would mean that a sizeable portion of users might not switch (no pun intended) to a new console, and either keep playing the Switch (sunk cost and all) or would be lost to Sony/Microsoft. And that's the biggest issue for Nintendo right now, transfering the existing player base to Switch 2.
 
VegiHam said:
If Switch 2 is backwards compatible, lots of people will sell or trade in their switches, which will be bought second hand by new customers who might buy Mario Kart 8 and BotW, maybe a Pokémon.

If it's not backwards compatible, a lot more people will keep it, and Nintendo miss out on those software sales.
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Good point.

The same applies to OLED sales.
Some people dismiss current hardware sales as just people upgrading.
But old Switches end up on the second-hand market, bringing new customers.
 
lieeiusex said:
According to the comments related to this rumor, the "T239 cancelled" rumor had a wide impact because the source had made numerous and accurate revelations about Nvidia's GPU. But the original text is very short and lacks clear details, therefore, there are too many possible interpretations, for example, the actual situation may be that the final code name of T239 was adjusted, etc.
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Again I feel compelled to point out there is no reason to believe that the source of this rumor is in any way reliable.

The source was a random forum poster, much like any of us, who claimed to have heard this information from someone reliable, yet did not name them and did not provide any evidence to support this, only a screenshot with all of the names cropped out.
 
D36 said:
Judging by the success of the Mario Movie, I'd say that licensing out their properties is a path they can take. Obviously, they're gonna wanna have a tight grip on these kinds of projects as to protect their brand image, but I think it's a viable strategy. Introducing their franchises through other mediums is a great way to get new consumers into their main products. It's likely why we have three Mario games releasing so close to each other during the Holidays.
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well Nintendo will expand the reach of it IP, trough movies/TV series and theme park as we see with Super Nintendo World and the Mario movie, Nintendo, Universal Pictures, Illumination and others Hollywood Studios must be in hard talks, Nintendo must have a lot of them IP they plan to expand to others medias such as movie, the fact the Super Mario Bros movie did $1.3 bilions alone prove the power of Nintendo franchises, and this will reflect in hardware/software sales, i imagine if Nintendo did a Legend of Zelda movie, with the popularity the franchise is having right now, is gonna be quite beneficial for them.
 
Nintendo has a position to win with software. Be it cross-gen or next-gen exclusive, their titles have Evergreen status. Even if they make a, say, Drake exclusive Donkey Kong game, during its lifetime, the software will keep selling, even though “confining” it to the Redacted could reduce its sales potential.

And nevermind already existing Evergreen games helping the Switch 2. Moreso if Nintendo decides to give a boost to them with the new generation’s tech.

I think software-wise, the Switch NG can ride itself calmly.
 
My Tulpa said:
Ok.

So you try to argue against me that using an Ampere SoC is overkill to do simple DLSS…and then you just admit to me there is not such thing as a Volta or Turning SoC that can adequately do simple DLSS of 1080p games to 4K.

This is why I think your argument isn’t compelling. You are agreeing with me but don’t know it lol.



The tensor cores in older Nvidia SoC’s were used for car AI and such. Not DLSS gaming. For good reasons.





That’s ampere architecture, not Turing or Volta (just to hit home against your augment that ampere SoC is overkill for 4K DLSS.)

And the RTX 2050 isn’t good for 4K DLSS. It’s primarily used for 1080p DLSS gaming for ~60fps

And the RTX 2050 is 30w

And the RTX 2050 has 64 tensor cores, not 48

And the RTX 2050 has memory clocks at 1.7 ghz

This isn’t a good argument against why I say 12SM at 1ghz and 15w isn’t overkill to get 4K DLSS to adequately work.




Huh?

Rendering at lower resolutions like 540p/720p to 4K is exactly how DLSS performance mode works (especially in lower end systems that can’t force 400w and push 2000 CUDA cores and 300 tensor cores and over clocking).

I can see Drake SoC being exactly what is needed to get a game like ToTK that is 900p/30fps on the tx1+ and being able to DLSS to 4K/60fps, with a bit left over from some graphics pushing.

And DLSS is the point of the chip. I don’t know why anyone would say that it isn’t.

It’s exactly the kind of tech advancement Nintendo gravitates towards. Everyone who guesses Nintendo will use cutting edge tech for raw graphics rendering power…has always been wrong. At least they have been wrong in the last 30 years. Which makes me confident in saying you are wrong about this.




This is what anyone should expect the power of Drake to be in portable mode based on the Nvidia leaks.



I mean, you still have to factor in performing at 11w and much lower clocks…but ok? I’m betting Drake portable should look/run better than the ps4 too. So what?

That has nothing to do with how Nintendo will approach their software development nor how they position the Drake model in the Switch brand.



Well, I don’t see the ps5 adding anything new to the “core experience of gameplay” or adding new gameplay. It’s essentially newer hardware to make games look and run (hopefully) better.



One thing I’ve learned from watching gamers discuss Nintendo hardware over the last 30 years, is that Nintendo never actually ends up using advanced tech exactly how core gamers think/expect them to.

As I’ve said, if Nintendo can find a way to use tensor to do some crazy, unique AI gameplay with it instead of DLSS, they will make some exclusives like that. But that’s for a 1-2 Switch kind of game, not a mainline game.

VR? Irrelevant. That’s a niche peripheral in the console market anyways whether Nintendo wants to do it or not makes no difference in how Drake is positioned or what their software development strategy is.

To put it another way, by the time Nintendo wants to develop, and eventually release, some huge grand game of a big franchise with scope and gameplay never seen before now that they have released ToTK…that’s like another 6+ years anyways. We are talking about hardware released after the Drake/Switch brand.



I guess ps5/Series X devs have been taking a massive L for 3 years now. No one really cares. People seem to enjoy the games released the last 3 years. For those new consoles, as well as the old Switch consoles. As well as the pc whic runs 5+ year old tech. If devs take a massive loss for 5 years instead of just 3…pretty sure it won’t make much a difference.

In other words, you are overblowing and overstating this “massive L”. Diminishing returns. This is 2023 not 1993.

The majority of the Switch userbase of gamers are extremely happy with the type of Nitnendo games they are getting. They just want them to look and run optimally.

Drake will provide this…
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Not to be rude or anything, but I have no idea what you’re arguing anymore. It’s difficult to follow.
 
My Tulpa said:
I know this is going to sound flippant and combative, but I’m honestly asking and I literally want to know:

So when I swapped out my GTX 980 card (Maxwell) in my pc and replaced with an rtx 3080 ti (Ampere)…I could play every game in my Steam library just like I was with my GTX 980 the day before. No problem.

What am I missing here, what’s the difference. Extensive modifications? Software emulation involved? (admitted noob in this area)
Click to expand...

Because PC games need to run on multiple GPU hardware architectures, for shaders in PC games they either distribute the actual source code itself with the game, or a hardware-agnostic intermediate representation (eg SPIR-V). Your graphics driver then compiles the code on-the-fly into binaries specifically for your GPU architecture. This is usually well hidden by the drivers, but if you've noticed stuttering the first time you play a game or reach a new area on a DirectX 12 game, then it's probably caused by new shaders having to be compiled.

On consoles like Switch, there's only one hardware architecture, so developers instead pre-compile shaders specifically for that architecture (in this case Maxwell) and ship the compiled shaders with the game. This means they don't have to worry about shader stuttering, they should be able to use slower offline compilers that produce more performant binaries, and they can even make use of shader assembly language if they want to.

Nvidia's new GPU architectures typically change the instruction set quite a bit from the previous one, deprecating some old instructions and adding some new ones. They can do this because on PC shaders are compiled by the driver anyway, so they don't have to worry about compatibility. They're not re-inventing the wheel every time, even from Maxwell to Ampere about 70-80% of the instructions are the same, but for Nintendo that's still enough that they'll have to add a compatibility layer to convert shaders from the Maxwell instruction set to the Ampere instruction set.
 
Elgift said:
I don't think there's a large population of people who didn't get into Switch gaming because of high entrance cost.

During sales you can get a Switch for 200$-250$. Second-hand console would be like what, 100$-150$? Not that big of a difference, considering people are paying 60 bucks per game.

No BC would mean that a sizeable portion of users might not switch (no pun intended) to a new console, and either keep playing the Switch (sunk cost and all) or would be lost to Sony/Microsoft. And that's the biggest issue for Nintendo right now, transfering the existing player base to Switch 2.
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I sort of disagree. I don't think it's a huge huge group, as in I don't think it's twenty million, but I do think there's a good few million families who would pick up a £99 switch as a birthday present for a six year old who loves Mario who wasn't born yet in 2017, as an example.
Cybergatuno said:
Good point.

The same applies to OLED sales.
Some people dismiss current hardware sales as just people upgrading.
But old Switches end up on the second-hand market, bringing new customers.
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Yeah, a lot of people on forums love to keep and collect old hardware, but I think the majority of OLED upgraders release an OG Switch into the world.
 
SmolSam said:
I honestly don't know what Nintendo is waiting for to make a Zelda gacha game for phones. You could summon any character from the franchise like in FEH and play as them with the gameplay of a 2D Zelda, since it looks like Nintendo won't be making any more 2D Zeldas from now on.
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Cause they don’t care about the mobile market anymore now that the Switch is successful. The only reason they joined was due to investor pressure; while their strategy wasn’t really conducive on sustaining a foothold in the market.
 
I'll also say I'd be very impressed if nintendo somehow managed to completely keeps under wraps the manufacturing of their next hardware considering all the moving pieces, both lite and oled were pretty much reported as being manufactured way before their official announcements. Just doesn't seem feasible imo (unless you think they announce it far in advance for early next year but then you risk impacting your hardware sales for the rest of the year).
 
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I think it’s highly possible Nintendo has a tighter leash on leaks because of the Switch’s success. Nowadays, who wouldn’t want to have their software in this console? Who wouldn’t want to participate in the successor to the Switch? Leakers would have much to lose if Nintendo reprimands them, which is possible we haven’t seen very detailed leaks.

Now, I’m not saying this is the case, but rather, presenting a scenario where Nintendo is obviously a market leader where devs flock to them, so Nintendo has a much more powerful stand over them.
 
MrBones said:
Nobody on this forum will like my answer, but:

Multiple hardware SKUs. Diverge the console and handheld lines again.

Nintendo achieved their greatest success (Wii+DS at 250m sales) when they supported two systems. More systems on the market = more sales. The hard cap for a single system is 150, and I don't see that changing.

My armchair business idea is a traditional console alongside a purposefully underpowered handheld system centered around a core gimmick (ala the DS). You could sell the handheld system for cheap and have rapid turnaround time for game development due to the lower scope. The popularity of indie games proves smaller scoped games aren't a inherently sales inhibitor.
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If Nintendo ever split their hardware again I would be so done. Having it all in one place is an absolute luxury.
 
justanotherperson said:
What does it say? It's unavaiilable.
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Senior Engineer, Shader CompilerSenior Engineer, Shader Compiler
Nintendo · Full-time

  • Apr 2022 - Present · 1 yr 4 mosSaranac Lake, New York, United StatesSaranac Lake, New York, United States

  • HiQES LLC logo
    Senior ArchitectSenior Architect
    HiQES LLCHiQES LLCApr 2013 - Apr 2022 · 9 yrs 1 moApr 2013 - Apr 2022 · 9 yrs 1 mo
      • Low-level Graphics Consulting to Nintendo Technology Development. Maintained and completed Wii U graphics drivers including creation and implementation of compute API's. Assigned to confidential next generation development.
 
My Tulpa said:
And the ps4 number is padded because it includes all those digital only game sales which the ps2 didn’t have and that Nintendo doesn’t count.
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This is wrong, Nintendo absolutely counts digital sales and games bundled with hardware they state so on their website and every financial report they put out.
Digital sales are usually 40-50% of their total software sales.
 
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SmolSam said:
You are definitely better informed than I am about the marketing of that game :censored:
But in my defense, I was talking about the franchise in general rather than just one specific game in my previous posts.
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I just remembered it being everywhere. I googled the details ;)

I love Metroid. I don’t need it to be a huge franchise - as long as Nintendo keeps making them, and they keep being good, and they don’t try to mutate it into something else to try to boost sales? I’m happy.
ReyVGM said:
Have you ever had a burger with thinly-shredded cabbage, ketchup, mayo, and hot sauce? It's really good.
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Not a ketchup guy, but it does sound good
 
Dimensio said:
This is wrong, Nintendo absolutely counts digital sales and games bundled with hardware they state so on their website and every financial report they put out.
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Nintendo doesn’t count digital only games i.e. games/software that can only be bought digitally for their final software count. If they did count digital only then they would have passed 1bil software sold earlier then just this year.
 
Dimensio said:
This is wrong, Nintendo absolutely counts digital sales and games bundled with hardware they state so on their website and every financial report they put out.
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Either you misread what they said or you are in the wrong, because Nintendo does not count digital only games (which was stated in the post you replied to) in their totals. They specifically say so in their financial reports.
 
Armoured_Bear said:
Senior Engineer, Shader CompilerSenior Engineer, Shader Compiler
Nintendo · Full-time

  • Apr 2022 - Present · 1 yr 4 mosSaranac Lake, New York, United StatesSaranac Lake, New York, United States

  • HiQES LLC logo
    Senior ArchitectSenior Architect
    HiQES LLCHiQES LLCApr 2013 - Apr 2022 · 9 yrs 1 moApr 2013 - Apr 2022 · 9 yrs 1 mo
      • Low-level Graphics Consulting to Nintendo Technology Development. Maintained and completed Wii U graphics drivers including creation and implementation of compute API's. Assigned to confidential next generation development.
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this is gonna spawn so many useless youtube videoes
 
Dimensio said:
This is wrong, Nintendo absolutely counts digital sales and games bundled with hardware they state so on their website and every financial report they put out.
Digital sales are usually 40-50% of their total software sales.
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Nintendo to my knowledge still does not count unit sales of digital only games in their software sales totals. They count digital versions of packaged sales of course but not digital only games.
 
MadMarvainy said:
I have yet to argue with anyone regarding BC lol.

I firmly believe it is happening.



What? Noo. Pablo was literally spamming the thread with craziness and posting fake shit as if it was a matter of fact that also ended up headlining on other sites as news and MVG is just stating what he thinks. This is nothing like that. Have your opinion of an opinion and keep it moving. It can be done respectfully.

It is also worth bringing up because it is a pattern of behavior on here for people to react this way when someone says something they don't want to hear. I've seen this happen with Digital Foundry as well as a few other insiders whenever they have any dissenting opinions or guesses.
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Fair enough with Pablo, but most of the opinions regarding MVG have been respectful, albeit exasperated.
 
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