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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Marce-chan said:
I'm sorry to sneak in like that but this thread surely has been moving way faster than I could possibly watch closely, so may anyone of you lovely people summarize what made this bump? Any new rumors or something, or was the dev kit photo + dev kits in Spain the last information we got? Anything pointing towards an earlier release (like early 2024) or any games mentioned? Thanks in advance 🥰❤️‍🩹
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Just a bunch of really low quality rumors that team H1 2024 and team 2026 jumped on.

(and yes, obviously the Switch 2 may not use T239, especially as there's a ton of contradictions regarding the current speculation. But "Chinese forum leaker who may be reliable and just trust me bro, he is, he maybe got a post deleted about this rumor, so it must be true" is pretty low quality)
 
NGL, only way imo that T239 doesn’t match expectations is that if yields are worse than expected and they disable an SM to improve then a bit but even that is honestly extremely unlikely
 
Marce-chan said:
I'm sorry to sneak in like that but this thread surely has been moving way faster than I could possibly watch closely, so may anyone of you lovely people summarize what made this bump? Any new rumors or something, or was the dev kit photo + dev kits in Spain the last information we got? Anything pointing towards an earlier release (like early 2024) or any games mentioned? Thanks in advance 🥰❤️‍🩹
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Dev kit PHOTO?!
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Nintendo can pretty easily sell the Switch 2 for $500 so this gives them a lot of leeway for more power if they wanted to. But I don't know what their current priorities are.
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Cuts off a huge number of kids and families from their customer base. And honestly it’s just not gonna be expensive enough to make that it so it warrants a 500 dollar price tag.

The S23 ultra which has an expensive and sophisticated camera array and a super fancy screen and super premium materials and water proofing certifications has a bill of materials around 460$, console margins (yes even for Nintendo) aren’t as fat as phone makers and Nintendo’s most expensive part will probably be the chipset. A bill of materials below 400$ is pretty much a given.
 
Marce-chan said:
I'm sorry to sneak in like that but this thread surely has been moving way faster than I could possibly watch closely, so may anyone of you lovely people summarize what made this bump? Any new rumors or something, or was the dev kit photo + dev kits in Spain the last information we got? Anything pointing towards an earlier release (like early 2024) or any games mentioned? Thanks in advance 🥰❤️‍🩹
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AshiodyneFX said:
NGL, only way imo that T239 doesn’t match expectations is that if yields are worse than expected and they disable an SM to improve then a bit but even that is honestly extremely unlikely
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Not only is it unlikely, but a silicon wafer used to make T239 on a 5nm process would produce a large quantity of T239 chips, so yield issues would be less of a concern. It's one of the reasons Xbox Series S is cheaper to make than Xbox Series X, the processor is (designed to be) a little under half the size of a Series X processor and so they just have more of them per processed wafer, and even failed Xbox Series X SOCs can be repurposed into Xbox Series S SOCs.
 
Concernt said:
Not only is it unlikely, but a silicon wafer used to make T239 on a 5nm process would produce a large quantity of T239 chips, so yield issues would be less of a concern. It's one of the reasons Xbox Series S is cheaper to make than Xbox Series X, the processor is (designed to be) a little under half the size of a Series X processor and so they just have more of them per processed wafer, and even failed Xbox Series X SOCs can be repurposed into Xbox Series S SOCs.
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Unrelated but speaking of nodes, if it ends up being 5nm I hope handheld mode is WEAKER than we expect because I don’t want to have another erista situation, I bet they could have a larger gap in power between modes this time given resolution targets and what not
 
D36 said:
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karmitt said:
Pikmin 4 is a solid step up from 3 as well. And these are only games we know about. Nintendo might not be pouring 220 million into a single game (no idea what Tears cost), but they are definitely improving their products.

Im really eager to see Prime 4 and 3D Mario if both take advantage of the new tech.
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Hell yeah!! Pikmin 4 seriously looks like a high effort title, got a hell of a lot of people working on it(500) and puts a lot of emphasis on scale, vistas and big and expansive world.

I really can't wait to see how great MP4 will look and play and I can only dream of what they'll do next for Mario with those ~6 years of development + new hardware.
SiG said:
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Νεφέλωμα said:
And Just Dance 2028 too
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That's underselling it, since they released it on Wii until like 2020 and also did even Wii U versions until very recently? Don't expect them to ditch Switch until like the 3rd year of PS6 lol.
Concernt said:
Dev kit PHOTO?!
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Edit: my bad
 
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Very hard to follow this thread lately. What is the latest rumor?
 
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Marce-chan said:
I'm sorry to sneak in like that but this thread surely has been moving way faster than I could possibly watch closely, so may anyone of you lovely people summarize what made this bump? Any new rumors or something, or was the dev kit photo + dev kits in Spain the last information we got? Anything pointing towards an earlier release (like early 2024) or any games mentioned? Thanks in advance 🥰❤️‍🩹
Click to expand...
Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
 
AshiodyneFX said:
Unrelated but speaking of nodes, if it ends up being 5nm I hope handheld mode is WEAKER than we expect because I don’t want to have another erista situation, I bet they could have a larger gap in power between modes this time given resolution targets and what not
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Yeah, I mean the resolution targets at play are very different this time around, with 4K for TV mode and 1080p for Handheld and Tabletop Mode, that's 25%, vs. 720p and 1080p being 40%. There's a lot more headroom in Handheld mode with this device.

Though there is a SMIDGE of nuance to be aware of, since DLSS will change those numbers drastically. We could end up with a lot of games rendering at 1080p internally in TV mode and a lot of games rendering at 720p internally in handheld mode, bringing it back to Switch levels of difference (well, ever so slightly less due to DLSS performance impacts, but that's really in the weeds.)

I think some common resolutions (excluding native resolution games) would be formed from existing DLSS modes. Assuming all output to native res at the end of DLSS:

Ultra Performance Mode, with 720p/360p internal resolutions, for very demanding games.

Performance mode, with 560p/1080p for middle ground games.

Quality/DLAA mode, with 900p/1440p for lighter 3D titles.

And an "even further beyond" with a 1080p+/4K+ internal resolution, upscaled even further, then binned down to the screen for perfect sharpness, a-la Ori and the Will of the Wisps on Xbox Series X.
 
LinkURL said:
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Marce-chan said:
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Hell yeah!! Pikmin 4 seriously looks like a high effort title, got a hell of a lot of people working on it(500) and puts a lot of emphasis on scale, vistas and big and expansive world.

I really can't wait to see how great MP4 will look and play and I can only dream of what they'll do next for Mario with those ~6 years of development + new hardware.

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That's underselling it, since they released it on Wii until like 2020 and also did even Wii U versions until very recently? Don't expect them to ditch Switch until like the 3rd year of PS6 lol.

Yeah, it circulated on Twitter for awhile, idk if it was debunked. I'll try to find a link and post it here.
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This is more or less where I got the idea from.
fwd-bwd said:
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Concernt said:
PLEASE DO!
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AshiodyneFX said:
Dev kit WHAT??!!!
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I'm sorry, I got it wrong. It was a picture of the Switch 1 dev kits taken by Anatel(technology regulator in Brazil) posted by Necrolipe reporting that some studios were receiving dev kits. Some sensationalistic Brazilian sites and tweeters posted said picture as a leaked dev kit for Switch 2. Since the thread moved hella fast I thought it was talked about already and that it was reported more heavily. I'm really sorry.
Said photo:
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ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Nintendo can pretty easily sell the Switch 2 for $500 so this gives them a lot of leeway for more power if they wanted to. But I don't know what their current priorities are.
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I have to disagree. I don't care how powerful Nintendo can make their next system, $500 will shut out a large part of Nintendo's market. Nintendo launches Switch 2 for $500 and it immediately turns into "I'll wait for a price cut" for most people.

They don't need to stick to $300, but I think going higher than $400 will be a tough ask.
 
Marce-chan said:
I'm sorry, I got it wrong. It was a picture of the Switch 1 dev kits taken by Anatel(technology regulator in Brazil) posted by Necrolipe reporting that some studios were receiving dev kits. Some sensationalistic Brazilian sites and tweeters posted said picture as a leaked dev kit for Switch 2. Since the thread moved hella fast I thought it was talked about already and that it was reported more heavily. I'm really sorry.
Said photo:
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NGL, HAT-001 goes hard, design wise.

I also find it fascinating that, while it uses the Wii U power connector, this image shows it using a generic adaptor with the proprietary connector stitched on! Fascinating!
 
Marce-chan said:
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Hell yeah!! Pikmin 4 seriously looks like a high effort title, got a hell of a lot of people working on it(500) and puts a lot of emphasis on scale, vistas and big and expansive world.

I really can't wait to see how great MP4 will look and play and I can only dream of what they'll do next for Mario with those ~6 years of development + new hardware.

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *


That's underselling it, since they released it on Wii until like 2020 and also did even Wii U versions until very recently? Don't expect them to ditch Switch until like the 3rd year of PS6 lol.

Edit: my bad
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Sorry, I misread Prime 4 with Pikmin 4. I know Pikmin 4 uses Unreal Engine 4 for a fact, which proves Nintendo is not shy from using 3rd party engines if it benefits them.
 
NintenDuvo said:
Man all these rumors were sounding good until the T239 about being canceled, i really hope this doesnt mean that Nintendo is not going to use DLSS
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T239 is not cancelled, as far as we know, and Nintendo is not abandoning DLSS as a concept.
 
Hermii said:
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LinkURL said:
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D36 said:
This is more or less where I got the idea from.
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Thanks!! Part of me kinda wishes it happens in Q2 2024 since that can make for more cross gen games and a softer transition where I still can have some stuff to play on OG Switch until I'm able to buy the NG, while a holiday 2024 pretty much confirms a more traditional transition with cross gen games being more like what we got on 3DS after Switch came out(with more stuff since it'll also be playable on NG but not what I think we'd get from early 2024-2025)
 
Josh5890 said:
I have to disagree. I don't care how powerful Nintendo can make their next system, $500 will shut out a large part of Nintendo's market. Nintendo launches Switch 2 for $500 and it immediately turns into "I'll wait for a price cut" for most people.

They don't need to stick to $300, but I think going higher than $400 will be a tough ask.
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Yeah. Nintendo's path to success is convincing families. We've seen it with the Wii, the DS and the Switch. They need families and $500 really alienates families, especially in today's economic climate.

NintenDuvo said:
Man all these rumors were sounding good until the T239 about being canceled, i really hope this doesnt mean that Nintendo is not going to use DLSS
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Yeah I wouldn't put stock into that t239 rumor yet.
 
Marce-chan said:
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Thanks!! Part of me kinda wishes it happens in Q2 2024 since that can make for more cross gen games and a softer transition where I still can have some stuff to play on OG Switch until I'm able to buy the NG, while a holiday 2024 pretty much confirms a more traditional transition with cross gen games being more like what we got on 3DS after Switch came out(with more stuff since it'll also be playable on NG but not what I think we'd get from early 2024-2025)
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Josh5890 said:
I have to disagree. I don't care how powerful Nintendo can make their next system, $500 will shut out a large part of Nintendo's market. Nintendo launches Switch 2 for $500 and it immediately turns into "I'll wait for a price cut" for most people.

They don't need to stick to $300, but I think going higher than $400 will be a tough ask.
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I could see them doing $449. They’ll come in cheaper than the PS5 Disc Version and Series X, but more than PS5 Digital and Series S.

I’m ready to spend like $600 Canadian on this thing haha
 
Derachi said:
I could see them doing $449. They’ll come in cheaper than the PS5 Disc Version and Series X, but more than PS5 Digital and Series S.

I’m ready to spend like $600 Canadian on this thing haha
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Hey, I'm willing to drop $500+ myself, but I know that I'm not the majority of the market.
 
Josh5890 said:
Hey, I'm willing to drop $500+ myself, but I know that I'm not the majority of the market.
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You can never discount the fact that the Switch is real popular, and that inflation is wild. Maybe they WOULD charge 499. I guess we’ll see.
 
With inflation I can see Nintendo thinking they can get away with charging $500 but only to be met with it selling slower than the Switch. People love the brand but they also tie it very close to being the ¨value gaming device¨. Its going to be a challenge to get buyers pay a premium price when the difference between its visuals (and things like a lack of an SSD) and the PS5 will be easy to see.

I just really hope Nintendo doesn´t buy into their own hype and think they can charge the highest end of price points they are considering.
 
Hush said:
With inflation I can see Nintendo thinking they can get away with charging $500 but only to be met with it selling slower than the Switch. People love the brand but they also tie it very close to being the ¨value gaming device¨. Its going to be a challenge to get buyers pay a premium price when the difference between its visuals (and things like a lack of an SSD) and the PS5 will be easy to see.

I just really hope Nintendo doesn´t buy into their own hype and think they can charge the highest end of price points they are considering.
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UFS is kinda SSD
 
DJBlitzkrieg said:
Question, would they really cancel a chip whose updates already appeared on the linux kernel?
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It has happened before so it isn't impossible.

Look, Nvidia designs the chip, Nintendo buys it. The company who decides whether to put stuff in the Linux kernel is Nvidia, who uses Linux as part of their development processes. The company who decides if the project will proceed is Nintendo.

But we know that Nvidia got as far as making test chips. Neither company is likely to let the process get that far unless they were absolutely ready to go. Nvidia has a reputation for not sampling until the design is locked. Nvidia killed Atlan much much earlier in the process. Nintendo kept Mont Blank on paper as long as possible, in order to avoid sinking money into a chip they were no 100% on.
 
mjayer said:
The calculus has changed.
2023 = 10%
2024 H1 = 70%
2024 H2 = 20%

Where are the team 2023 peeps at? Aint seen any posts in a bit. Starting to feel hopeless? I guess in a few weeks we'll know for sure!
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I'm still here!! Just chilling on that a bit because some users were making Team2023 discussion a bit toxic for a while. 😅 Based on what I've read here over the years about timing of tapeout to release, and the fact that manufacturers rarely stockpile and sit on chips for very long, 2023 has continued to make sense to me.

That being said, Q1 2024 also fits with that feeling of mine, as there's really only a few months difference between holiday '23 and March '24. Either way, I guess I'm #TeamSoonish
 
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