Nintendo is a Japanese company, and Japan remains its most important market. Japan buys almost as many consoles as all of Europe, they buy more games per person, and they have a single shared language.
No Metroid game has sold a million copies in Japan since the NES. In fact the entire lifetime sales of the whole franchise in Japan is less than 2 million.
And the Prime sub-franchise does worse. Including the rereleases, Prime has sold less than 200k in Japan. By way of comparison, Snipperclips sold better than the entire lifetime sales of the Prime games in Japan.
There is no world where Metroid Prime is the key game in Nintendo’s global launch strategy.
I’m not trying to be harsh. I just want to make clear that considering Metroid is very Western Nintendo Fan Hardcore Gamer centric, and no matter what the strategy, it’s a bad pick.
Prime 4 can’t be a broad appeal cross gen game with Japanese ceiling of 50k in sales.
Prime 4 can’t target hardcore gamers because Nintendo already tried that when they announced the game 3 months into the Switch era. Those people either bought a Switch already or are burned by Nintendo not delivering in 6 years.
Prime 4 cannot be a big exclusive showpiece if it is a cross gen game.
The only thing that can get MP4 to be part of next gen launch is for it to coincidentally be done around the time of next gen launch.
With all due respect, this take is something I've never agreed with despite the logic and facts behind it. I can understand it completely but I can't outright rule Prime 4 out despite how many people insist on ruling it out.
It's a matter of putting all my hope into them wanting to actually make Metroid a bigger franchise than it has been and taking a risk on it. And Nintendo does, at times, take risks.
I believe it can be part of their global launch strategy for Switch 2 and it will surprise many people when Prime 4 is announced within launch window when hardware is announced.
I just don't see at this point a world where Prime 4 hasn't also been in development for newer hardware. I mean, what did they decide to launch OLED with? Metroid Dread. I know it's just a small upgrade to current gen Switch but they easily could've chosen any other franchise they have to be that title to highlight the advantages of OLED to customers and instead they iterated repeatedly how OLED makes Dread look better and how it took advantage of that display. They didn't even need to associate Dread with OLED but they did anyway.
I can't really think of a game we know is long in the tooth in development that is from a studio where graphics and fidelity are important. Prime has always been a graphical showcase on Nintendo consoles. I can't really see how Prime 4 won't be leveraged to showcase at least something about Drake's capabilities, I can't. This adds up a lot more for me if I consider that Prime 4 is being factored into launch window for new hardware, both for Nintendo's insistent refusal of not showing a single morsel of this game and acknowledging it as well as the hardware's supposed launch date as well.
No matter what odds are against it, I am really adamant that Nintendo will Nintendo and do it anyways because sometimes they do take risks and you never know, it might pay off. There will have to be a point where Metroid has a Zelda moment and reaches a zeitgeist, with Switch's base it is better to try hard now than to never bother with the franchise and never try. Given Metroid's renewed interest and the project's Nintendo has been making acknowledging that interest and the positive reception that is garnering, I don't think Nintendo isn't at least trying to make Metroid land and boost its popularity. I think Prime 4 is a bigger game than people suspect it to be and really undermine it and its potential.
I will be the dark horse and say a lot of people here come reveal and release will be shocked and surprised. And if I'm wrong, remind me in the future. I just can't get on board thinking Prime 4 really is just an absolute nothingburger that isn't even factored into anything with Nintendo because it doesn't hit back home. Why even bother restarting development and trying so hard in the first place? I think it will be placed however it's going to be placed but I don't view it as low as some might, I do think it can be launch worthy and that it will be revealed within that window when hardware is revealed. They have their plans, I'm sure there will be other games, Metroid can easily be a part of that line-up.
The Switch family is the best time with the popularity Nintendo has at this moment in time to push Metroid and try to make something that will land harder than previous entries. I think Prime 4 is going to be something special and more ambitious than anything the franchise has done before and it will garner interest from what direction it goes in.
