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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Giancarlo said:
release a 3D Donkey Kong game, Metroid Prime 4, a brand new Wario Land, the return of a dead or semi-dead franchise like F-Zero, Star Fox, and your consoles sales is gonna explode, is not hard to do this
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It’s almost as if you didn’t read the post.
 
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Giancarlo said:
release a 3D Donkey Kong game, Metroid Prime 4, a brand new Wario Land, the return of a dead or semi-dead franchise like F-Zero, Star Fox, and your consoles sales is gonna explode, is not hard to do this
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I'm sorry, my previous reply was kinda snippy.

The point is that Nintendo doesn't have (all) those games. At the end of the generation you only have so many games banked before your dev teams move on to prepare the launch slate for the next-gen system. And once you do, you start releasing things that you might have killed if it were three years earlier. That's why stuff like this comes out now. You can't magically invent games that don't exist, and you can't assign developer teams that you don't have. Maybe those games exist, maybe they don't, but what Kit and Krysta are saying is that the release of this game indicates that Nintendo has clearly moved their internal teams on, and they're releasing titles that are banked and/or cheap to ride out the end of the Switch life cycle.

One of which is almost definitely Prime 4, of course, but I would bet money that Prime 4 doesn't sell a single Switch to someone who doesn't already own one.

If you take the best selling 3D Donkey Kong, the best selling Metroid Prime, the best selling Wario Land and the best selling F-Zero of the entire franchise history, you have a combined total of 13 million units sold. So if every single one of those franchises broke records, and every single person who bought one of the games also bought a Switch, and there was zero overlap between those franchises, it would still be the worst year in Switch sales.

There just aren't unsatisfied Nintendo fans, with the possible exception of a small number of GameCube era nostalgists who want Pikmin and Prime 4 - the two games we know are coming. If Nintendo wants to move more Switches, they need a new IP, the way that Pokemon did for GameBoy in its seventh year. If Nintendo thinks they've got a Splatoon or Switch Sports in their back pocket - a new IP that opens up access to new fans and can carry a console - I bet they're gonna hold it for the next machine anyway.
 
Quoted by: TLZ
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Giancarlo said:
release a 3D Donkey Kong game, Metroid Prime 4, a brand new Wario Land, the return of a dead or semi-dead franchise like F-Zero, Star Fox, and your consoles sales is gonna explode, is not hard to do this
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So what are you going to have on the new console? :p
 
casualreader said:
I remember that video posted by ubisoft a while back.

For all the tech-savy folks in this chat (great reading your thoughts over the past few weeks btw, although I understand very little), is anything like that achievable with today's technology ?
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Here you see a simplified method how it basically would work

A proper solution would be just a more shiny and sturdy version of that. Basically contrast is too bad for proper end user usage, this technology is better for controlled areas like museums and fairs.
 
oldpuck said:
Pretty straight forward. Kit and Krysta confirming that this is likely exactly what it seems like - projects that might have been killed otherwise get a release because the dev teams have moved on to the next hardware, and that when they were at Nintendo, hardware variants were very strategically deployed, and the pastel Joy-Cons are a classic late-gen move.

Krysta says that the original 1-2 Switch was a boondoggle even at launch. Press was actively uninterested, and the dev team wasn't excited for it either.

Kit says that one of the late-gen challenges isn't just continuing to make money, but continuing to maintain a certain level of audience engagement, because you're going to need those eyeballs at the next big launch.
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From their yearly softwares sales the audience is definitely being engaged which was one of many problems for late stage Nintendo devices.
 
Discostew said:
Didn't watch it, but I seriously hate these thumbnails with the dumb expressions.
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I don't blame them. If their added value had been any kind of expertise, we'd have known about it a long time ago, so they do what they can to get people to click.
 
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BDGAME said:


SD speed is not that bad at the end, or it is? And the speed is in the card, not the card reader, right? So, if someone buy a UFS card, the read speed will be of that card, right?
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Not sure how UFS card works but I read that A2 sd card does need special reader and driver which the Steam Deck doesn't have. It can read it just fine but it might be slower than A1 card which need to meet its rated spec without the above things
 
invwar said:
Here you see a simplified method how it basically would work

A proper solution would be just a more shiny and sturdy version of that. Basically contrast is too bad for proper end user usage, this technology is better for controlled areas like museums and fairs.
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Fantastic. Did you just figure the next iteration of Nintendo labo. If there was a way you could interact with it, would be nuts, and although I cannot imagine anything game-like with this, I m sure they could, seeing how creative they are.
Either way, certainly not for now but in 10 years who knows..
 
invwar said:
Here you see a simplified method how it basically would work

A proper solution would be just a more shiny and sturdy version of that. Basically contrast is too bad for proper end user usage, this technology is better for controlled areas like museums and fairs.
Click to expand...

This isn't a 3d hologram though. It's just a 2D image being semi-reflected for translucency effect.
 
casualreader said:
Fantastic. Did you just figure the next iteration of Nintendo labo. If there was a way you could interact with it, would be nuts, and although I cannot imagine anything game-like with this, I m sure they could, seeing how creative they are.
Either way, certainly not for now but in 10 years who knows..
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Animal Crossing
 
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BDGAME said:


SD speed is not that bad at the end, or it is? And the speed is in the card, not the card reader, right? So, if someone buy a UFS card, the read speed will be of that card, right?
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Ooh, gonna ramble a bit.
(but to answer your question, this sort of thing is usually both sides? Reader needs to be able to handle X version of protocol, the card itself needs to be so and so capable)
See the charts of benchmarks for both the internal NVMe SSD and the SD Card at 1:29 or 1:30? Here's my interpretation of what's going on...

SEQ = Sequential; you're working with one file and/or everything you want to work with is lined up for the best possible conditions.
Not surprisingly, the NVMe drive is crushing here.

Q should be Queue Depth, or the number of requests working simultaneously/in parallel. The NVMe drive shows some difference between Q1 and Q8, but doesn't seem to be hitting its theoretical max. Could be a CPU limit (I'm guessing power limit, as a desktop Zen 2 shouldn't have the same issue). The SD card on the other hand shows practically no difference between Q1 and Q8. It's only working one thing at a time?

RND = Random; I work with one file, finish, then jump to another file located elsewhere, and so forth.
Notice that at Queue Depth 1, the NVMe drive is only a few times faster than the SD card. Here's a question: how much of that difference is coming from the 'working with a given file' part and how much is coming from the 'I then jump around to the next file' part? :unsure:
I'm guessing more from the former than the latter, since at the end of the day, they're both using NAND flash. The medium itself can only be so responsive.
At Queue Depth 32, the NVMe drive pulls away again. So, jumping around randomly from a file to another one at a time isn't so hot. So the workaround is... why only work one at a time, when you can do a lot at once? As oldpuck mentioned before, cover up latency by employing parallelism. The SD card again seems to be stuck to just one thing at a time?


So to recap: When does an NVMe drive deliver on the hype (relative to something like an SD card)?
1. You are working with large, individual files. Here's something that the companies marketing these drives don't want to admit: this currently does not apply to the average consumer*. Granted, 'currently' does a heavy lifting here, because DirectStorage ought to be changing this in the future.
2. You can make lots of requests simultaneously/in parallel. Good idea! Also shouldn't be unique! SATA SSDs should also be to do this, as we know that in real life, there isn't much practical difference between NVMe and SATA for the average consumer. I assume, but don't know for sure, that UFS is also capable of this.

*corollary to this: the marketing push for PCIe gen 5 NVMe drives started this year. Guess what? Realistically, there's practically no meaningful improvement for the average consumer over existing gen 3 or 4 drives. Don't fall for the hype of ever increasing sequential speeds unless you know it'll do something for you.
 
Giancarlo said:
i choose Starfox
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21.webp
 
ertaboy356b said:
Kinda weird Nintendo shadow dropping games as if they're dumping everything for the switch right now.



They also dropped a video about how to create a Nintendo Account but that disappeared afterwards lmao.
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Just saw the Everybody 1-2-Switch announcement and the Nintendo Account thing... They really are cleaning their backlog huh? As things are going I'm not even too sure MP4 will release on the Switch, and if it does it'll look massively worse than the target release.
 
Lancelot said:
Just saw the Everybody 1-2-Switch announcement and the Nintendo Account thing... They really are cleaning their backlog huh? As things are going I'm not even too sure MP4 will release on the Switch, and if it does it'll look massively worse than the target release.
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I don't think they will do switch fans dirty like that. More than likely MP4 will be a cross gen game. I can't think of any 1st party games they announced, to only release om the successor.

bayonetta said:
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God I wanna falcon paunch their faces 😆
 
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ShadowFox08 said:
I don't think they will do switch fans dirty like that. More than likely MP4 will be a cross gen game. I can't think of any 1st party games they announced, to only release om the successor.
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Kirby Return To Dreamland and Pikmin 3 are the most recent examples I know of, not sure if there's been any since then. Nintendo's switch to almost exclusively announcing games closer to release has sort of stopped this from happening, even though it's been rumored to have happened behind the scenes for unannounced games. That said, MP4 falls in the same bucket as Kirby RtD and Pikmin 3 as far as games that went though dev problems after being announced, so I wouldn't be shocked if they moved it entirely to Switch 2.
 
ertaboy356b said:
They also dropped a video about how to create a Nintendo Account but that disappeared afterwards lmao.
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That one was titled as part of a Nintendo How To series, so I presume it was just launched early. Interesting that they'd have a "tutorial" program for the Switch, but worth noting that "active users with Nintendo accounts" is a metric they're pushing hard on the investor side. Having contact information for everyone who owns your console is a pretty good move when you're getting ready to launch the next one.
 
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ertaboy356b said:
Kinda weird Nintendo shadow dropping games as if they're dumping everything for the switch right now.
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ILikeFeet said:
this is a third party game, I don't see how it counts
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And considering that it's a day-and-date multiplat, it's not like Nintendo could hold the trailer for a June Direct. Same for most of the other recent announcements on their YouTube channel - they're all previously announced things, or stuff that was simultaneous release. The only thing Nintendo has marketed that could come in a direct, but didn't, was Stinky Horse
 
Instro said:
Kirby Return To Dreamland and Pikmin 3 are the most recent examples I know of, not sure if there's been any since then. Nintendo's switch to almost exclusively announcing games closer to release has sort of stopped this from happening, even though it's been rumored to have happened behind the scenes for unannounced games. That said, MP4 falls in the same bucket as Kirby RtD and Pikmin 3 as far as games that went though dev problems after being announced, so I wouldn't be shocked if they moved it entirely to Switch 2.
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I don't think there's any real risk of Prime 4 skipping Switch unless it gets rebooted a second time. The current version has probably been in development for longer than the hardware itself, and there's no reason to believe the Retro Studios version is particularly troubled.
oldpuck said:
And considering that it's a day-and-date multiplat, it's not like Nintendo could hold the trailer for a June Direct. Same for most of the other recent announcements on their YouTube channel - they're all previously announced things, or stuff that was simultaneous release. The only thing Nintendo has marketed that could come in a direct, but didn't, was Stinky Horse
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The chances of that game ever actually being in a Direct were pretty close to zero. Stinky Horse is not really Direct material.
 
Concernt said:
The end times... Conspicuously end the first month of H2 2023.

Holiday release seems... Like the plan
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this vs. the lack of leaks from marketing and all that is leaving me kinda conflicted. i think i'm leaning towards the possibility that these "casual" announcements are being left out of what's going to be a typical June Direct.
 
ProngoLuvr said:
this vs. the lack of leaks from marketing and all that is leaving me kinda conflicted. i think i'm leaning towards the possibility that these "casual" announcements are being left out of what's going to be a typical June Direct.
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I think the "lack of leaks" dialogue to be both unconvincing and ultimately extremely misguided. Leaks are by far the exception, not the rule, and to pretend we haven't had unprecedented amounts of leaks about this device is simply to not live in reality. The "marketing leaks", the typical analysts, the "insiders", these have all... Already happened. Some were misfires. So now, between that and a crack down on leaks, is it really that surprising that the leaks lately are manufacturing and supply chain, rather than analyst or marketing?

The "marketing leaks" have already happened. They just happened far, far before it actually released.

All that, and absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Not "unworthy evidence", but simply not evidence at all one way or the other. Meanwhile, there actually IS some evidence of PRESENCE. Quite a bit, really!

So when you knock that part off. You're left with just "this". Just this weird drought of announcements or games. This weird exceptional June with no current indication of a Direct.

Yet... Strangely... There are rumblings. Not of a Direct. But of a "digital event" to come.

Now what kind of Nintendo digital event ISN'T a Direct... Well, they've never revealed a new generation in a Direct, for starters.
 
Concernt said:
I think the "lack of leaks" dialogue to be both unconvincing and ultimately extremely misguided. Leaks are by far the exception, not the rule, and to pretend we haven't had unprecedented amounts of leaks about this device is simply to not live in reality. The "marketing leaks", the typical analysts, the "insiders", these have all... Already happened. Some were misfires. So now, between that and a crack down on leaks, is it really that surprising that the leaks lately are manufacturing and supply chain, rather than analyst or marketing?

The "marketing leaks" have already happened. They just happened far, far before it actually released.

All that, and absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Not "unworthy evidence", but simply not evidence at all one way or the other. Meanwhile, there actually IS some evidence of PRESENCE. Quite a bit, really!

So when you knock that part off. You're left with just "this". Just this weird drought of announcements or games. This weird exceptional June with no current indication of a Direct.

Yet... Strangely... There are rumblings. Not of a Direct. But of a "digital event" to come.

Now what kind of Nintendo digital event ISN'T a Direct... Well, they've never revealed a new generation in a Direct, for starters.
Click to expand...

I can't believe we're in June and people are still going on about the potential of it launching this year.

It's probably Fall 2024, sorry.
 
Concernt said:
I think the "lack of leaks" dialogue to be both unconvincing and ultimately extremely misguided. Leaks are by far the exception, not the rule, and to pretend we haven't had unprecedented amounts of leaks about this device is simply to not live in reality. The "marketing leaks", the typical analysts, the "insiders", these have all... Already happened. Some were misfires. So now, between that and a crack down on leaks, is it really that surprising that the leaks lately are manufacturing and supply chain, rather than analyst or marketing?

The "marketing leaks" have already happened. They just happened far, far before it actually released.

All that, and absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Not "unworthy evidence", but simply not evidence at all one way or the other. Meanwhile, there actually IS some evidence of PRESENCE. Quite a bit, really!

So when you knock that part off. You're left with just "this". Just this weird drought of announcements or games. This weird exceptional June with no current indication of a Direct.

Yet... Strangely... There are rumblings. Not of a Direct. But of a "digital event" to come.

Now what kind of Nintendo digital event ISN'T a Direct... Well, they've never revealed a new generation in a Direct, for starters.
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Are you putting weight into what that Kotaku person said lol? Come on.

I can't tell, man....but are you another one of these people with a bit that you just stick to or are you serious?
 
Quoted by: D36
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Concernt said:
I think the "lack of leaks" dialogue to be both unconvincing and ultimately extremely misguided. Leaks are by far the exception, not the rule, and to pretend we haven't had unprecedented amounts of leaks about this device is simply to not live in reality. The "marketing leaks", the typical analysts, the "insiders", these have all... Already happened. Some were misfires. So now, between that and a crack down on leaks, is it really that surprising that the leaks lately are manufacturing and supply chain, rather than analyst or marketing?

The "marketing leaks" have already happened. They just happened far, far before it actually released.

All that, and absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Not "unworthy evidence", but simply not evidence at all one way or the other. Meanwhile, there actually IS some evidence of PRESENCE. Quite a bit, really!

So when you knock that part off. You're left with just "this". Just this weird drought of announcements or games. This weird exceptional June with no current indication of a Direct.

Yet... Strangely... There are rumblings. Not of a Direct. But of a "digital event" to come.

Now what kind of Nintendo digital event ISN'T a Direct... Well, they've never revealed a new generation in a Direct, for starters.
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tbh i wouldn't expect a big publication to tease a console announcement as vaguely as that unless they're really uncertain about what exactly the presentation is about, in which case they might be better off waiting until they can get more info. console leaks from big publications have been pretty consistent for every model of the Switch and for Nintendo's past systems, but that hasn't really shown up for this next system. Bloomberg's reporting on a 4K Switch may have been for the successor, but their current stance on its release date is just "we dunno, maybe 2024?" i think it's too late at this point for a 2023 release. i'd love to be wrong though.
 
Hocot8 said:
Are you putting weight into what that Kotaku person said lol? Come on.

I can't tell, man....but are you another one of these people with a bit that you just stick to or are you serious?
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I don't see this as a bit. I also don't see a lack of leaks correlating to a lack of announcements.
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I can't believe we're in June and people are still going on about the potential of it launching this year.

It's probably Fall 2024, sorry.
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There's nothing that leans to either side except for Nintendo not denying any new hardware this fiscal year.
I've talked about this before, but I don't think we should be too bullish on 2024 just yet.

Something something confirmation bias. Let's wait and see.
 
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D36 said:
don't see this as a bit. I also don't see a lack of leaks correlating to a lack of announcements.

There's nothing that leans to either sides except for Nintendo not denying any new hardware this fiscal year.
I've talked about this before, but I don't think we should be too bullish on 2024 just yet.

Something something confirmation bias. Let's wait and see.
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Yeah well I don't know when someone is sticking to a bit or not apparently. It doesn't help that I'm downing jack daniels lmao.

I mean I'm much more bullish on 2024 than 2023. We're running out of time to truly consider 2023 as an option. I just can't actually believe that Nintendo would be able to shut up everyone working for 3rd party devs. So if we are to believe the "leaks" about some switch pro which came from 3rd party devs then the lack of something recently from 3rd party devs should stand for a little. Am I wrong to believe that? Of course if you want to not believe the whole dev kits leak that's fine. I can't really blame nor challenge you haha.

Maybe I'm assuming wrongly to think the leaks would come from 3rd party.
D36 said:
The closest we have is the Switch, provided you disregard the preemptive announcement of the NX.
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Yeah but extraordinary circumstances were a huge variable in that.
 
Hocot8 said:
Yeah but extraordinary circumstances were a huge variable in that.
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And this could be the case now. I think 2024 believers just need to chill out with trying to "force" people when nothing tangible to support either side has cropped up. We shouldn't need a run around or remarks about "what hasn't been done before," all over again, i thinks. If you think 2024, more power to you.
 
Sin Drive said:
And this could be the case now. I think 2024 believers just need to chill out with trying to "force" people when nothing tangible to support either side has cropped up. We shouldn't need a run around or remarks about "what hasn't been done before," all over again, i thinks. If you think 2024, more power to you.
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same can be said for the 2023 people lol.
 
Hocot8 said:
same can be said for the 2023 people lol.
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Sure but who is telling 2024 believers they're wrong for just purely believing in 2024? I've seen 2023 folks say it could still be either way but firmly believe in their release year based on current evidence. The truth is we don't know until we do but they seem fine with that.

Edit: Just to clarify, i don't think every 2024 believer is doing this. I just don't see the gains of trying to dive deep into arguments we don't really have more info bout to support either side.
 
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ProngoLuvr said:
tbh i wouldn't expect a big publication to tease a console announcement as vaguely as that unless they're really uncertain about what exactly the presentation is about, in which case they might be better off waiting until they can get more info. console leaks from big publications have been pretty consistent for every model of the Switch and for Nintendo's past systems, but that hasn't really shown up for this next system. Bloomberg's reporting on a 4K Switch may have been for the successor, but their current stance on its release date is just "we dunno, maybe 2024?" i think it's too late at this point for a 2023 release. i'd love to be wrong though.
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Hocot8 said:
Yeah well I don't know when someone is sticking to a bit or not apparently. It doesn't help that I'm downing jack daniels lmao.

I mean I'm much more bullish on 2024 than 2023. We're running out of time to truly consider 2023 as an option. I just can't actually believe that Nintendo would be able to shut up everyone working for 3rd party devs. So if we are to believe the "leaks" about some switch pro which came from 3rd party devs then the lack of something recently from 3rd party devs should stand for a little. Am I wrong to believe that? Of course if you want to not believe the whole dev kits leak that's fine. I can't really blame nor challenge you haha.

Maybe I'm assuming wrongly to think the leaks would come from 3rd party.
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The Nvidia hack is the main difference maker for how leaks for this device are being understood in this thread. For a variety of understandable reasons, most people reporting on leaks about Nintendo hardware for the past year have done so while ignoring the Nvidia hack. The problem is that the details of that reporting are often at odds with the details from the hack, and we have no way of knowing why with our current information.

In other words, the strange thing here is not so much that third party devs are keeping secrets to an extent that hasn't happened before, but that it seems like Nintendo's timeline for this new device is directly at odds with the timelines of third party devs presumably working on games for the same device.

How is that possible? Your guess is as good as mine. I think that Nintendo might release the device with only first party titles, with perhaps a few third party games from very close and trusted sources, and then slowly integrate other third party games that are being worked on over the next year or two. But again, this is entirely my own conjecture. Honestly, I'm almost more curious about the timeline of events behind the development of this device than the date of the announcement.
 
Sin Drive said:
Sure but who is telling 2024 believers they're wrong for just purely believing in 2024? I've seen 2023 folks say it could still be either way but firmly believe in their release year based on current evidence. The truth is we don't know until we do but they seem fine with that.
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I'ma dm you my response because it's going to throw the thread off but I do get what you are saying at the end. I've gotten criticism for saying just that before. I'm not against you or D36 and I hope they didn't take my post as trying to "force" them to be on my side haha.
carbonaxiom said:
The Nvidia hack is the main difference maker for how leaks for this device are being understood in this thread. For a variety of understandable reasons, most people reporting on leaks about Nintendo hardware for the past year have done so while ignoring the Nvidia hack. The problem is that the details of that reporting are often at odds with the details from the hack, and we have no way of knowing why with our current information.

In other words, the strange thing here is not so much that third party devs are keeping secrets to an extent that hasn't happened before, but that it seems like Nintendo's timeline for this new device is directly at odds with the timelines of third party devs presumably working on games for the same device.

How is that possible? Your guess is as good as mine. I think that Nintendo might release the device with only first party titles, with perhaps a few third party games from very close and trusted sources, and then slowly integrate other third party games that are being worked on over the next year or two. But again, this is entirely my own conjecture. Honestly, I'm almost more curious about the timeline of events behind the development of this device than the date of the announcement.
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I mean that's fair. Especially your last paragraph.

I'm just tryna understand why people believe what they believe. I believe in 2024 but it's certainly not a strong belief nor is based on some iron clad logic. My logic is loose and filled with biases so if I can ask something that can help me work around my biases then I'm going to do that. That's what the 3rd party bit was all about.

Anyway I appreciate your educated response along with your conjecture.
 
Maybe we are the release dates we made along the way.

It’s about the journey, not the end 😌

release the kraken you cowards! Er, the Drake you cowards!
 
Hocot8 said:
I'ma dm you my response because it's going to throw the thread off but I do get what you are saying at the end. I've gotten criticism for saying just that before. I'm not against you or D36 and I hope they didn't take my post as trying to "force" them to be on my side haha.

I mean that's fair. Especially your last paragraph.

I'm just tryna understand why people believe what they believe. I believe in 2024 but it's certainly not a strong belief nor is based on some iron clad logic. My logic is loose and filled with biases so if I can ask something that can help me work around my biases then I'm going to do that. That's what the 3rd party bit was all about.

Anyway I appreciate your educated response along with your conjecture.
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When you look at what happened with NX, Nintendo actually managed to keep details about the thing mostly under wraps until only a few months before the unveiling trailer, and that was with a delay, even. Leaks are a fickle and unreliable source of information, and Nintendo's gotten pretty good at controlling them. Another factor worth considering is that it's likely that much of the third party lineup this thing will have in the launch window won't be true exclusives, with most of the games probably releasing on either Switch and/or PS and XBox as well, which will help to further limit the number of people that even need to touch this thing. The lack of third party leaks is perhaps somewhat notable, but just doesn't seem to be a strong determining factor for when this is releasing.

The main reasons I think 2023 is at least the target are that the hardware development timeline seems to line up reasonable well with that, from what we can guess and that Nintendo has been acting pretty erratic and extra mysterious this year. With Nintendo's second half still so up in the air, yet indicators pointing much more towards feast than famine, we're probably in for a bunch of announcements soon regardless of what's happening.
 
I still believe that Nintendo has managed to keep this thing under wraps and 2023 is still a possibility, or its possible it was the original target date.

It could be that we all genuinely get surprised when they announce the device and drop the digital showcase, and as much as I love to speculate and mull over leaks, being truly surprised by their release is the most exciting prospect to me.
 
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