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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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LukasManak22 said:
In what exactly? If you exclude Pokemon, which is almost always announced due to Pokemon Day, everything else published by Nintendo as in Metroid Dread, Mario Party Superstars and Wario Ware were first shown at E3.
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@Thraktor's charts above show pretty clearly that, even in 2021, Nintendo maintained a much higher number of announced games than they have right now.

Why Nintendo's announcements this year are how they are is up for debate, but I'm surprised that we've had so much argument about the situation being strange in the first place.
Chun said:
Then why not announce them all after TOTK in June like they've done with 2nd half slates in the past?
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They haven't really done that, though. They never wait that long to announce all of their second half.
 
majimazio said:
The only way to get through this is to announce an inexpensive download-only game like Kirby's Dream Buffet and release it immediately.
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I've only included games which had physical releases, so that wouldn't make a difference to the numbers, by the way I'm calculating them, anyway.

9-Volt said:
I don't think there's a deeper meaning for the empty latter half of the year. They'll just treat Level-5 games as if they're first party games and push them as such. Fantasy Life has so much potential to be a massive seller. Maybe some Mario spinoffs and Zelda ports to support that.
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Just looking at H2 is missing the point, though. Nintendo have almost no games announced for the Switch period. At any given point in the Switch's life, you could have looked at the number of forthcoming games Nintendo is involved in publishing, and you would have seen anywhere between 9 and 18 titles. You would currently see 4, and it's likely going to drop to 2 in about a month and a half. That's not a "oh, we'll just treat Level 5 games as first party" kind of difference.

Even though Nintendo has given many titles a relatively short announcement-to-release cycle with Switch, they've consistently announced a selection of titles a year or more in advance to ensure that players have something to look forward to in the longer term. At this point of any other year, we'd have a handful of games announced for 2024, a handful announced for 2023 but without dates, and a few more with no timeframe attached. Now, all we have is Metroid Prime 4, a game announced six years ago, and obviously not intended to still be on their unreleased slate by this point.

None of this means that Nintendo is actually going to have a quiet second half of the year, or that they don't have titles in place to release at the same cadence as they have for the past few years. They're entitled to announce games when they want, and if they want to exclusively announce games only a few months before release, they can do that. But if that's what they're doing, then it's a notable change from what they've been doing for the past 7 years, and it's a very strange time to make that change, when sales are dropping and people are asking whether a Switch 2 is on its way.
 
Pokemaniac said:
I strongly doubt Mario Kart 8 Deluxe again will be Drake's sole Mario Kart, but realistically, that's all we're likely to get near launch.

Why not assume Nintendo is pulling out of E3 for the same reason everyone else is?
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I'm just pointing out that if they had stuff to announce right at
E3, they may have stuck around. We don't know the timeline of who pulled out first etc, but the premise of your point I agree with. They could be unrelated, but at the same time, I'm also noting it's very unlikely they would turn around and hold a direct exactly at E3's now cancelled window, they probably pulled out because they just want to announce whatever they have on their own terms, which they do already anyways with the directs, but their timing was sitll determined by when E3 was held previously. Now they are completely unconstrained.
 
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One of the things that makes me most curious about the upcoming system, apart from the technical aspects of course, and also the correction of the joy con drift, the potential new look, or the possible gimmick (I really hope Nintendo won't give up VR, for instance), is the absence of specific Zelda title for the new hardware.

Even if it's not the best-selling game on the Switch, Breath Of The Wild will be remermembered as its iconic title from the start. I know it's also a Wii U title, but I think, looking back, people will probably associate BotW almost as closely with the Switch as Mario 64 did with the Nintendo 64, for example. Because this is THE game that brought a lot of people back to Nintendo. And we're in a situation where no matter what happens, there won't be a Zelda game specifically associated with the next hardware for several years. It's just weird, I think. I don't doubt that we'll have a lot of reasons to be happy in the future as Zelda fans (at least a 2D game I hope, certainly Wii U ports, possibly even N64 remasters/remakes). But It just not the same. Wind Waker HD on Wii U was just not the same as a brand new Zelda.
 
D36 said:
I'm talking about games in general. There is still a staggering lack of first and third-party games for the latter half of this year as opposed to 2021, that is not normal, no matter how you slice it. I don't know what Nintendo is cooking, but it smells fishy, nonetheless.
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Which first and third party games for H2 2021 are you thinking of here?
 
Thraktor said:
None of this means that Nintendo is actually going to have a quiet second half of the year, or that they don't have titles in place to release at the same cadence as they have for the past few years. They're entitled to announce games when they want, and if they want to exclusively announce games only a few months before release, they can do that. But if that's what they're doing, then it's a notable change from what they've been doing for the past 7 years, and it's a very strange time to make that change, when sales are dropping and people are asking whether a Switch 2 is on its way.
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Aside from Switch era, announcements of H2 titles as late as E3 isn't new to Nintendo at all. It actually happened quite a lot in Wii/3DS/Wii U era. Something is cooking here, no doubt about that, If we go by mid June with no H2 titles in sight, then yes hardware is undoubthly coming this year.
 
boodream said:
One of the things that makes me most curious about the upcoming system, apart from the technical aspects of course, and also the correction of the joy con drift, the potential new look, or the possible gimmick (I really hope Nintendo won't give up VR, for instance), is the absence of specific Zelda title for the new hardware.

Even if it's not the best-selling game on the Switch, Breath Of The Wild will be remermembered as its iconic title from the start. I know it's also a Wii U title, but I think, looking back, people will probably associate BotW almost as closely with the Switch as Mario 64 did with the Nintendo 64, for example. Because this is THE game that brought a lot of people back to Nintendo. And we're in a situation where no matter what happens, there won't be a Zelda game specifically associated with the next hardware for several years. It's just weird, I think. I don't doubt that we'll have a lot of reasons to be happy in the future as Zelda fans (at least a 2D game I hope, certainly Wii U ports, possibly even N64 remasters/remakes). But It just not the same. Wind Waker HD on Wii U was just not the same as a brand new Zelda.
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I think that it's a great opportunity to make full remakes of Majora or Ocarina, finally make some 2D Zelda as well to make the wait for next Zelda better. Imo this just shows that EPD releases don't coincide that much with hardware releases, if they decide earlier in development that X game is not launching with new hw they aren't doing that.
 
Chun said:
Then why not announce them all after TOTK in June like they've done with 2nd half slates in the past?
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Because that's not how Nintendo typically does things. Honestly, I don't think TotK is all that relevant to whatever comes after it.
 
Chun said:
Then why not announce them all after TOTK in June like they've done with 2nd half slates in the past?
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Exactly. Nintendo has no reason to announce their lineup for the 2nd half of the year since everyone’s attention is on TotK. Hold a June Direct and announce them then while everyone is still on a ‘Nintendo’ high from TotK.
 
Trevelyan said:
Exactly. Nintendo has no reason to announce their lineup for the 2nd half of the year since everyone’s attention is on TotK. Hold a June Direct and announce them then while everyone is still on a ‘Nintendo’ high from TotK.
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Uh, yeah they do, at least to the same capacity as they normally would. Just not announcing anything new beyond a few months out at a time when people are already questioning the longevity of the hardware just due to its age is a bold move.
 
I don't have a lot of insight regarding the tech speculation side of this conversation BUT I do have quite a bit of knowledge regarding the financial/Geo-Market side of things as it is my career of choice. One thing we all need to consider is timing. Nintendo employs a team of marketing/financial experts and I PROMISE you they are telling the people who make these decisions that a Spring 2024 release will be risky in terms of sales and profits if the worldwide market situation continues as is.

(Market Nerd Explanation) To put it briefly, We are likely about to experience another boom cycle putting both stock markets and inflation back to highs. Inflation to Nintendo is VERY big deal especially the in the context of Forex (Currency trading) trading. US to JPY and vice versa. As of this moment, The US dollar is retreating and this will be an opportunity for an optimal launch in late 2023. The danger here is Spring 2024 onward. We (The USA) are staring down the barrel of an economic event once central banks around the world realize they must spike Interest rates to numbers not seen since the 80's or completely lose control over inflation. I believe this could happen around Spring-Summer 2024 and a next gen switch launch during this would render it almost a Wii-U situation with mass layoffs and decreased money usage on entertainment (specifically families)

(Back on topic) Nothing is ever "certain" but for people whose career it is to forecast financials to CEOs all see this coming. Its why you are hearing about Bank failures and (minor) job layoffs in Tech. They are preparing. So I believe 100% Nintendo will be eyeballing this situation in regards to a next gen switch release. The time to strike is Holiday 2023 in that sense. Whether or not they are capable/ready is a completely different conversation.
 
After the Feb 2021 direct and Pokemon Presents, we had these big games to look forward to in the long term (not talking about early/Summer 2021 games):

Pokemon Legends Arceus
Pokemon Brilliant Diamond & Shining Pearl
Splatoon 3
Triangle Strategy
Bayonetta 3
Zelda "BotW2" at the time
Metroid Prime 4

Right now in April 2023, we have:
Metroid Prime 4 (only first party game)
Professor Layton New World of Steam

Multiplat or small 3rd party games: DecaPolice, Fantasy Life i

There's a clear difference in Nintendo's effort of keeping interest and momentum in their platform long term (aka 2024 or even late 2023)
 
D36 said:
Shin Megami Tensei V, No More Heroes 3, and (technically second-party, but I'd say it can pass as a Nintendo game) Pokemon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl.
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Well there's no Pokemon this year, but third party wise we know of Gollum, Hogwarts Legacy, Fantasy Life, Decapolice and Dragon Quest: Adventures of Dai among others.

I'd say it's comparable to what we knew at the start of April 2022 and April 2021.
 
LukasManak22 said:
I think that it's a great opportunity to make full remakes of Majora or Ocarina, finally make some 2D Zelda as well to make the wait for next Zelda better. Imo this just shows that EPD releases don't coincide that much with hardware releases, if they decide earlier in development that X game is not launching with new hw they aren't doing that.
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I would be absolutely thrilled if we finally got a brand new 2D Zelda and if the N64 Zelda games got a Final Fantasy 7 treatment. But Breath Of The Wild has put so much emphasis on the open world that I wonder about the audience reaction. I mean, a wider audience.
 
H2 could easily be the DLC packs along with a couple of remasters (Kid Icarus Uprising, F-Zero GX) along with some smaller 3rd party games and indies while they save the bigger first and third party releases for a Spring-Summer 2024 launch window for Switch 2. They’ll want to save stuff for the first year of Switch 2 regardless if the games are compatible with the OG console or not.
 
Quoted by: D36
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RaymondBryce said:
Which first and third party games for H2 2021 are you thinking of here?
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As of 2nd of April 2021, the following games which Nintendo were involved in publishing had been announced:

New Pokémon Snap, Miitopia, Famicom Detective Club: The Missing Heir, Famicom Detective Club: The Girl Who Stands Behind, DC Super Hero Girls: Teen Power, Mario Golf: Super Rush, The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD, Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, Metroid Prime 4, Shin Megami Tensei V, Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl, Pokémon Legends Arceus, Triangle Strategy

Out of those, four were released in the first half of 2021, five in the second half of 2021, and the remaining 6 in 2022 or later.

Here's the equivalent list for 2nd April 2023:

Advance Wars 1 + 2: Re-Boot Camp, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, Pikmin 4, Metroid Prime 4

Currently we have two games to release in the first half of 2023, one in the second half, and one with a big question mark next to it.

LukasManak22 said:
Aside from Switch era, announcements of H2 titles as late as E3 isn't new to Nintendo at all. It actually happened quite a lot in Wii/3DS/Wii U era. Something is cooking here, no doubt about that, If we go by mid June with no H2 titles in sight, then yes hardware is undoubthly coming this year.
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I'm aware Nintendo have a long history of announcing games mid-year and releasing them within the following 6 months. My point was that they haven't been doing so exclusively. They've always mixed in a smattering of games announced further in advance. Announcing some of your games less than 6 months before release is one thing, announcing all of your games less than 6 months before release is something different, and that seems to be what's happening for some reason.

I also wouldn't say that it means new hardware is absolutely coming this year. As @oldpuck pointed out, the very fact that it's unprecedented means we can't make definitive conclusions from it, as there aren't any precedents to draw from. I personally think that releasing (or at least announcing) new hardware in the second half of the year would be a good reason why Nintendo has stopped announcing new Switch games more than a few months in advance. There are possibly other equally good explanations too.
 
ITSMILNER said:
H2 could easily be the DLC packs along with a couple of remasters (Kid Icarus Uprising, F-Zero GX) along with some smaller 3rd party games and indies while they save the bigger first and third party releases for a Spring-Summer 2024 launch window for Switch 2. They’ll want to save stuff for the first year of Switch 2 regardless if the games are compatible with the OG console or not.
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That's not gonna be enough to move units, especially in the Switch's 7th year.
 
D36 said:
That's not gonna be enough to move units, especially in the Switch's 7th year.
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Most of the units this year will be sold in May with Zelda and the Zelda OLED. If they announced the new Switch this year it would slow sales down the tail end of the year anyway so they are probably banking on the Zelda launch for this year.
 
ITSMILNER said:
Most of the units this year will be sold in May with Zelda and the Zelda OLED. If they announced the new Switch this year it would slow sales down the tail end of the year anyway so they are probably banking on the Zelda launch for this year.
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But what about the rest of the year, in that case?
 
oldpuck said:
Nintendo would market hardware with a very short marketing cycle,
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Nintendo announced the Switch on 20 October 2016 and launched 3 March 2017 - that 135 days, or just under 4.5 months. A summer announcement with a November launch is perfectly feasible. The Lite and V2 both had July announcements with September launches, so a couple of months extra for a new system should be sufficient, I would have thought
 
ITSMILNER said:
Most of the units this year will be sold in May with Zelda and the Zelda OLED. If they announced the new Switch this year it would slow sales down the tail end of the year anyway so they are probably banking on the Zelda launch for this year.
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I honestly don't see ToTK having a massive impact on hardware sales. It's a direct sequel to BoTW, so how many people who want to play it don't already own a Switch and a copy of BoTW? Maybe the 5 Wii U owners who haven't bought a Switch yet? There'll surely be some kind of bump, between people buying the special edition, and maybe some people who have sold their Switch in the intervening years or whatever. I don't see it being anywhere near "most of the units this year", though.

As a point of comparison, when Pokemon Scarlet and Violet launched last November, it was the fastest selling Nintendo title in history. It had very little impact on hardware sales, though. Almost every region saw hardware sales drop by about 25% YoY in the last quarter of 2022. In Japan, where we have week-by-week data, the bump was pretty modest, with hardware sales up 70K from the previous week, but still very much in line with typical sales for the same week in previous years.

As Switch reaches market saturation, the days of huge hardware sales figures when major games are released are long past. There's still a lot of people interested in buying Switch software, but almost all of them already own a Switch by this stage.
 
RaymondBryce said:
Well there's no Pokemon this year, but third party wise we know of Gollum, Hogwarts Legacy, Fantasy Life, Decapolice and Dragon Quest: Adventures of Dai among others.

I'd say it's comparable to what we knew at the start of April 2022 and April 2021.
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Fair enough, but (and I don't mean to move the goalpost) I'm still not convinced that this is business as usual for Nintendo, as we still lack that first-party hook for 2H.
 
We all agree that the end of the year is an appropriate launch window. That's true for the next hardware. It was also true for a new Zelda game in 2022, before it was delayed. We'll know more this summer anyway. If Nintendo can do it, they have no reasons not to launch a new model at the end of 2023. In the same way they had no reasons to to wait until May to launch TotK.
 
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I think there is a case to be made for a 2024 release that explains the lack of announcements regarding h2 2023. Assuming we get a new system h1 2024, Nintendo has no reason to announce games releasing in 2024 until after new hardware is announced. Doing otherwise wouldn't make sense for cross-gen games, as they want customers to think the switch versions are downgraded switch 2 games, instead of the switch 2 versions being thought of as upgraded switch ports. By announcing these games before announcing new hardware, people will associate these games as primarily switch games rather than switch 2 games. This means that until Nintendo wants to announce and showcase their new hardware, they are limited to only announcing and marketing 2023 switch titles. With that being the case, Nintendo is forced to not unveil their 2nd half titles too early. They can't announce the rest of the year's lineup now, because when they get to their summer direct they'd have nothing new to show. Instead, they'd rather capitalise on the hype of new announcements in a summer presentation and try to maintain momentum for the switch going into the holiday season.
 
space-coyote said:
I think there is a case to be made for a 2024 release that explains the lack of announcements regarding h2 2023. Assuming we get a new system h1 2024, Nintendo has no reason to announce games releasing in 2024 until after new hardware is announced. Doing otherwise wouldn't make sense for cross-gen games, as they want customers to think the switch versions are downgraded switch 2 games, instead of the switch 2 versions being thought of as upgraded switch ports. By announcing these games before announcing new hardware, people will associate these games as primarily switch games rather than switch 2 games. This means that until Nintendo wants to announce and showcase their new hardware, they are limited to only announcing and marketing 2023 switch titles. With that being the case, Nintendo is forced to not unveil their 2nd half titles too early. They can't announce the rest of the year's lineup now, because when they get to their summer direct they'd have nothing new to show. Instead, they'd rather capitalise on the hype of new announcements in a summer presentation and try to maintain momentum for the switch going into the holiday season.
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There is always a real possibility this launches in Spring 2024. I think through a VARIETY of reasons though, It is objectively the wrong move. Holiday 2024 would even be better than Spring. I would hope Nintendo would be smarter than this BUT its not like they haven't gone against wisdom before.
 
Thraktor said:
I'm aware Nintendo have a long history of announcing games mid-year and releasing them within the following 6 months. My point was that they haven't been doing so exclusively. They've always mixed in a smattering of games announced further in advance. Announcing some of your games less than 6 months before release is one thing, announcing all of your games less than 6 months before release is something different, and that seems to be what's happening for some reason.

I also wouldn't say that it means new hardware is absolutely coming this year. As @oldpuck pointed out, the very fact that it's unprecedented means we can't make definitive conclusions from it, as there aren't any precedents to draw from. I personally think that releasing (or at least announcing) new hardware in the second half of the year would be a good reason why Nintendo has stopped announcing new Switch games more than a few months in advance. There are possibly other equally good explanations too.
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Yeah, not having announced other titles for future is one thing, altough is someone surprised that they have seemingly no dated games for 2024? Even if some 2024 games are cross-gen, you would announce them when new hardware is already unveiled imo.

I pointed out earlier, and still think this is likely scenario that if new hardware misses 2023, new 2D Mario gets announced in June for October/November. It's the perfect title for 7 year Switch. It's not really a 3D Mario type of deal but would still make Nintendo a good amount of profit and would sold well. All other New Super Mario Bros. titles (except for one) got around 4-6 months reveal-to-release at maximum.
 
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Demon Lizardman said:
I mean, if we were getting a new console later this year, wouldn't they just have delayed Zelda so it launches with the console?
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Not if they have another title in mind to be the flagship [Redacted] title.

Plus TotK will sell well w/o redacted and may well be used to showcase 4K patches.

We simply don’t know.
 
Demon Lizardman said:
I mean, if we were getting a new console later this year, wouldn't they just have delayed Zelda so it launches with the console?
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No, because it was already intended for the Switch and it wouldn't benefit from a cross-gen launch the same way BotW did.
 
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Demon Lizardman said:
I mean, if we were getting a new console later this year, wouldn't they just have delayed Zelda so it launches with the console?
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Why do that when you already have software ready to go with it (MP4? MO2?) ? Or Why do that when the new console is merely just a 4K upgrade at the end of the day and as such you have patches ready to go. It could quite be the case that delaying Zelda to Holiday 23 with the next gen switch would make everything very cramped.
 
GameRant keeps a running list of every announced Switch game, and archive.org keeps a copy from across history, so we can know exactly what we knew at any position in time.

Thraktor said:
As of 2nd of April 2021, the following games which Nintendo were involved in publishing had been announced:

New Pokémon Snap, Miitopia, Famicom Detective Club: The Missing Heir, Famicom Detective Club: The Girl Who Stands Behind, DC Super Hero Girls: Teen Power, Mario Golf: Super Rush, The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword HD, Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, Metroid Prime 4, Shin Megami Tensei V, Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl, Pokémon Legends Arceus, Triangle Strategy

Out of those, four were released in the first half of 2021, five in the second half of 2021, and the remaining 6 in 2022 or later.
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And one of them was announced in early 2021 for a 2022 release, Splatoon 3.

And to supplement that with April 2022:
Nintendo Switch Sports, Mario Strikers: Battle League, Fire Emblem: Three Hopes, Live A Live, Xenoblade Chronicles 3, Bayonetta 3, Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope, Pokemon Scarlet/Violet, Splatoon 3, Advance Wars 1+2 Reboot Camp, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, Metroid Prime 4.

H1: 4. H2: 5 2023+: 3

Furthest out game with a release window: Zelda, Q2 2023

Thraktor said:
Here's the equivalent list for 2nd April 2023:

Advance Wars 1 + 2: Re-Boot Camp, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, Pikmin 4, Metroid Prime 4

Currently we have two games to release in the first half of 2023, one in the second half, and one with a big question mark next to it.
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And the "second half" game is for July, while in previous years it's been September-November.

The Switch is going to break the DS's record for the longest gen since the GameBoy on June 4th of this year. If Nintendo makes it to March of next year without new hardware it will be the longest gap between revisions of hardware in the 21st century. It's not just weird that Nintendo is going quiet, it's a weird time to go quiet. If Nintendo intends to keep the Switch around for another year, they need to say so, and then prove it with software releases. But they're saying "uncharted territory" and announcing nothing.

Investors: "Gonna release new hardware"
Nintendo: "You know we're in uncharted territory."
Investors: "People aren't buying evergreens as much anymore. How are you going to reach new customers without new hardware?"
Nintendo: "You need a combination of software and hardware"
Investors: "So what are you going to release for your hardware"
Nintendo: "...games"
Investors: "Like what?"
Nintendo: "Zelda is going to do very well"
Investors: "And after that?"
Nintendo: "Yeah, uncharted territory"
Some Nintendo fans: "Yeah, sounds legit!"
Other Nintendo fans: "It's all part of the new hardware plan Bay Bee!"
Me: whistling
 
oldpuck said:
GameRant keeps a running list of every announced Switch game, and archive.org keeps a copy from across history, so we can know exactly what we knew at any position in time.


And one of them was announced in early 2021 for a 2022 release, Splatoon 3.

And to supplement that with April 2022:
Nintendo Switch Sports, Mario Strikers: Battle League, Fire Emblem: Three Hopes, Live A Live, Xenoblade Chronicles 3, Bayonetta 3, Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope, Pokemon Scarlet/Violet, Splatoon 3, Advance Wars 1+2 Reboot Camp, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, Metroid Prime 4.

H1: 4. H2: 5 2023+: 3

Furthest out game with a release window: Zelda, Q2 2023


And the "second half" game is for July, while in previous years it's been September-November.

The Switch is going to break the DS's record for the longest gen since the GameBoy on June 4th of this year. If Nintendo makes it to March of next year without new hardware it will be the longest gap between revisions of hardware in the 21st century. It's not just weird that Nintendo is going quiet, it's a weird time to go quiet. If Nintendo intends to keep the Switch around for another year, they need to say so, and then prove it with software releases. But they're saying "uncharted territory" and announcing nothing.

Investors: "Gonna release new hardware"
Nintendo: "You know we're in uncharted territory."
Investors: "People aren't buying evergreens as much anymore. How are you going to reach new customers without new hardware?"
Nintendo: "You need a combination of software and hardware"
Investors: "So what are you going to release for your hardware"
Nintendo: "...games"
Investors: "Like what?"
Nintendo: "Zelda is going to do very well"
Investors: "And after that?"
Nintendo: "Yeah, uncharted territory"
Some Nintendo fans: "Yeah, sounds legit!"
Other Nintendo fans: "It's all part of the new hardware plan Bay Bee!"
Me: whistling
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As a Nintendo investor (And no, Not just "a few shares") those questions while important, Are not what I want to know. I want to know how they plan to capture more market share by penetrating the casual crowd, How they are leveraging IPs through other avenues than gaming, and how they are managing/incorporating new technology, and finally how they are navigating the worldwide market turmoil. However...

Some Nintendo investors simply invest for the national Japanese pride through the Nikkei. Some invest simply for growth. Some invest because they like the company and grew up with its products. That is how their non answers to investors such as "Uncharted territory" has and will continue to work. 90% of the their investors don't invest in Nintendo to make good money (Even though that is the entire point). There are thousands of the other companies with better investment gains. Nintendo can be silent and investors can be frustrated and nothing would change lol
 
ILikeFeet said:
if Nintendo's schedule is coinciding with Drake announcement then I can see a July announcement to a November launch. that's one month less than the Switch reveal to launch
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Refusing to announce the Switch 2 in June to save the precious 14 extra sales that would otherwise be lost... I don't know.

If it's not announced by July 1st, Fall 2024 is overwhelmingly likely.

(I would say Fall 2024 is likely currently and becomes very likely if we pass mid May with no announcement)
 
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DJBass88 said:
There is always a real possibility this launches in Spring 2024. I think through a VARIETY of reasons though, It is objectively the wrong move. Holiday 2024 would even be better than Spring. I would hope Nintendo would be smarter than this BUT its not like they haven't gone against wisdom before.
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I don't think aiming for a spring launch is necessarily a bad move and there are plenty of advantages to it. Firstly, if there are potential supply constrains you don't have the casual audience competing with enthusiasts to get one during the holiday period since the enthusiasts will likely already own one. Secondly, you can increase value proposition of an upgrade by having an established software library built up over the better half of a year while letting each title still have its own full marketing cycle. Thirdly, you can expand the appeal of some more niche IPs, especially more graphically demanding ones such as the metroid prime series.
 
DJBass88 said:
Why do that when you already have software ready to go with it (MP4? MO2?) ? Or Why do that when the new console is merely just a 4K upgrade at the end of the day and as such you have patches ready to go. It could quite be the case that delaying Zelda to Holiday 23 with the next gen switch would make everything very cramped.
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What's MO2?
 
Quoted by: D36
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DJBass88 said:
As a Nintendo investor (And no, Not just "a few shares") those questions while important, Are not what I want to know. I want to know how they plan to capture more market share by penetrating the casual crowd, How they are leveraging IPs through other avenues than gaming, and how they are managing/incorporating new technology, and finally how they are navigating the worldwide market turmoil. However...

Some Nintendo investors simply invest for the national Japanese pride through the Nikkei. Some invest simply for growth. Some invest because they like the company and grew up with its products. That is how their non answers to investors such as "Uncharted territory" has and will continue to work. 90% of the their investors don't invest in Nintendo to make good money (Even though that is the entire point). There are thousands of the other companies with better investment gains. Nintendo can be silent and investors can be frustrated and nothing would change lol
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Wouldn't their stocks drop, in that case? I don't think Nintendo's been all this stuff about "uncharted territory" for nothing; the relative silence is still telling, we just don't know what.
 
D36 said:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
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Pokemaniac said:
@Thraktor's charts above show pretty clearly that, even in 2021, Nintendo maintained a much higher number of announced games than they have right now.

Why Nintendo's announcements this year are how they are is up for debate, but I'm surprised that we've had so much argument about the situation being strange in the first place.

They haven't really done that, though. They never wait that long to announce all of their second half.
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But notably, they DID wait to announce all but one home console game for 2017 until January of that year. Funny that!
 
DJBass88 said:
As a Nintendo investor (And no, Not just "a few shares") those questions while important, Are not what I want to know. I want to know how they plan to capture more market share by penetrating the casual crowd, How they are leveraging IPs through other avenues than gaming, and how they are managing/incorporating new technology, and finally how they are navigating the worldwide market turmoil. However...

Some Nintendo investors simply invest for the national Japanese pride through the Nikkei. Some invest simply for growth. Some invest because they like the company and grew up with its products. That is how their non answers to investors such as "Uncharted territory" has and will continue to work. 90% of the their investors don't invest in Nintendo to make good money (Even though that is the entire point). There are thousands of the other companies with better investment gains. Nintendo can be silent and investors can be frustrated and nothing would change lol
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You sound like the type of investor I'd rather Nintendo not pay attention to. We've had enough Blue Ocean, give us more Red Waterfall.
 
TSR3 said:
Nintendo announced the Switch on 20 October 2016 and launched 3 March 2017 - that 135 days, or just under 4.5 months. A summer announcement with a November launch is perfectly feasible. The Lite and V2 both had July announcements with September launches, so a couple of months extra for a new system should be sufficient, I would have thought
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I think it's feasible, but it's not the same as the Switch. The NX's launch date was announced a year in advance, and it had a well marketed launch title, and was succeeding a device that sold so poorly its launch title was effectively an exclusive, when it came to moving units.

The Switch launched in an environment of "What it the NX? And are there going to be reasons to buy it other than Zelda, because it is already going to sell more than the Wii U just because of Zelda."

The current environment is "does REDACTED exist? Was it cancelled? And what percentage of the fan base is actively upset at the idea of moving on? What the hell would it's launch title be, and will it be cross-gen, and if it is, will we bother buying the new thing?"
 
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