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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

This is very interesting indeed. I don't think it pertains to new hardware at all (ray tracing not being supported yet would certainly be a limiting factor), but it's very interesting not just that Nintendo is contributing to Vulkan directly, but they're contributing a major feature which fundamentally changes one of the key paradigms the API is built on.

I'm definitely no expert on graphics APIs either, but I would be surprised if this relates to emulation or BC in any way. From an emulation perspective, it would absolutely make sense that it could allow the dynamism supported by the graphics API being emulated to be better mapped to Vulkan. However, the only prior Nintendo hardware which would seem to warrant this would be the Wii U, as it's the only console other than the Switch which supports programmable shaders. In my understanding (which may absolutely be wrong), emulation of fixed-function hardware like GC or Wii would map well to the existing pipeline paradigm. And for reasons that should be obvious, I would expect Wii U emulation to be very far down Nintendo's priority list.

In terms of BC, I can't see any good reason to involve Vulkan in Nintendo's BC efforts. The benefit of Vulkan is that it is an open, general purpose, cross-platform API, and the benefit of contributing to it is that you can then depend on that contribution being supported across a variety of hardware and driver implementations. The implementation of backwards compatibility is almost the opposite of this; it is a very specific problem, for which a single implementation is made, to run on a single target architecture, and the entire stack can be (and probably is) proprietary. Nintendo and Nvidia can implement this in any way they wish without any regard for anyone else, so why would they constrain themselves by implementing it on top of a cross-platform API?

My guess is that Nintendo's involvement in Vulkan, and their usage of it in emulators, is a kind of future-proofing or insurance for future hardware. In the case of the emulators, there is probably little to no benefit from using NVN over Vulkan, but if they ever change hardware vendor in the future, then using Vulkan can at least mean avoiding having to re-implement their emulators as they had to do moving from Wii U to Switch. It's very unlikely they'll actually use Vulkan for games, but if they do change hardware vendor, they will have to work with them to implement a new graphics API for the new hardware. Using Vulkan as the starting point for such an API would make a lot of sense, as it's an API Nintendo is already familiar with, and any hardware vendor will also be familiar with and have a mature driver implementation for. Proposing improvements to Vulkan like the one we see here could simply be a way for Nintendo to push it closer to their "ideal" graphics API, and the closer it is to that, the less friction there would be in implementing any new custom graphics API in the future.
I know dolphin, at least, is subject to the same shader stutter that emulators for newer platforms are (if I understand correctly it's a shader per set of TEV parameters, or something like that), with the only real mitigation being that they've been able to write an "ubershader" that can (slowly) emulate the whole TEV pipeline in software for impacted pixels while they generate and compile an optimized shader in the background. Obviously Nintendo would probably ship shader caches to address the problem of having to generate them on the fly, but apparently the reason why dolphin has to do this is because games can just reconfigure the TEV with no warning and get results basically instantaneously. That definitely sounds like dynamism to me, but I don't know how it maps to this new extension.

As for why they might choose to use Vulkan for their BC layer, I think future proofing may be a compelling concern there, as well. I doubt that they'd go with a fully generic solution for performance reasons (in particular, the shader translator itself seems likely to be highly specialized), but keeping it as generic as possible while meeting their performance goals means less work bringing it forward beyond Drake. As time goes on, they could just Ship of Theseus it into a full on emulator the more that their hardware drifts away from the TX1. As proposed by @LiC, there's a certain appealing logic to using custom, highly hardware specific APIs like NVN in the moment to make games, while using more open standards like Vulkan to preserve them. Nintendo's got a good thing going with Nvidia right now, but they also had a good thing going on with IBM/AMD until one day it wasn't going so good anymore, and as you pointed out, they had to eat a fairly costly transition. In this current environment of much more expected BC, designing with an eye towards the longer term is probably a wise move.
 
I do recall that now, was it because of some issue though? That seems pretty late



I´ll leave it at this - Being as Nintendo has fumbled their reveals several times, they should take the time Sony took with the PS5 to properly differentiate the new platform from the Switch. Believe it or not, there is a chance that a significant chunk of their audience might write it off if the reveal to launch window is too narrow given it has no game changing form factor like the Switch and can easily be misinterpreted with reactions like ¨Just a Switch Pro, I´ll wait for Nintendo´s REAL next gen console in a few years¨
We can leave it at that but if the device having issues like that then that signifies a conceptually unsound device that no amount of doing better at reveal would fix.
 
I feel like it's extremely easy to parse when someone means "I would like the Switch 2 to have fast transfer speeds instead of the very slow transfer speeds of the Switch 1"

I do hope the Switch 2 uses UFS 4.0, requires installs to UFS 4.0, and has minimal friction in transferring the data.
 
The assumptions that NIntendo has not announced anything after Pikmin because Drake is coming this year is one of the least reasons why would I expect it to release this year.
Yeah, this is confirmation bias.
Just like what people said about the delay of TotK, and the Splatoon3/XC3 swap.
Although I hope, and expect it will arrive this FY, or even earlier, this CY
 
I do recall that now, was it because of some issue though? That seems pretty late
Not really an issue, just waiting to have all the RDNA2 features.

Same for SS technically.

I do hope the Switch 2 uses UFS 4.0, requires installs to UFS 4.0, and has minimal friction in transferring the data.
I don’t think anything or very little use UFS 4.0 right now on the market.
 
The assumptions that NIntendo has not announced anything after Pikmin because Drake is coming this year is one of the least reasons why would I expect it to release this year.
But why not announce at least two games for 2H 2023 during the last Direct? The lack of information on anything after Pikmin 4 (barring DLC, but I don't think they we should consider them on the same level as a new game, aside from potentially, Xenoblade) is rather atypical of this company. I highly doubt Nintendo is just going to coast the rest of the year on DLC, TotK, and their tertiary ventures, so I would argue that an announcement of new hardware is imminent. If it is coming next year, we likely would have had more information on 2H, like we always do and it would be announced in the fall. This all might be confirmation bias, but this is what I've hypothesized.
 
A few questions for everyone, if [REDACTED] doesn't come out this year, what do you think Nintendo's 2H will look like, why do you think they would withhold information on 2H, and how do you think it will pan out (financially, critically, stuff like that)?
I know, wrong thread, but still....
 
A few questions for everyone, if [REDACTED] doesn't come out this year, what do you think Nintendo's 2H will look like, why do you think they would withhold information on 2H, and how do you think it will pan out (financially, critically, stuff like that)?
If H2 is software only, all I could figure is Prime 4 is finally coming and will carry the holiday season, and the reason they're being quiet about it is to not overshadow Prime Remastered too soon. 🤷‍♂️
 
A few questions for everyone, if [REDACTED] doesn't come out this year, what do you think Nintendo's 2H will look like, why do you think they would withhold information on 2H, and how do you think it will pan out (financially, critically, stuff like that)?
2D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, DLCs (pokemon and XC3), that’s some decent lineup for a console in its 7th year.

Why withhold: the lineup, though not bad, is not exciting enough. And they want to hide the real exciting launch titles later.
 
Does anyone have a favorite mockup/concept rendering of what they want the Switch 2 to look like?

My favorite is the Switch Up posted on reddit awhile back.

y0mz3wpgbv131.jpg


Only problem is it takes away the removeable controllers which I don't think Nintendo will do. There's other things to nitpick about it (the sticks/button placement.) But in terms of overall vision and being a convincing render, I think it does the best job I've ever seen.
So, your favorite mockup is basically a pretty Switch lite. The machine almost no one want because it lost a lot a functions. I really hope the sequel is not that.
 
If H2 is software only, all I could figure is Prime 4 is finally coming and will carry the holiday season, and the reason they're being quiet about it is to not overshadow Prime Remastered too soon. 🤷‍♂️
Wouldn't that bolster Prime Remastered's sales though? It would Prime(heh) everyone for when 4 finally releases.
 
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I paraphrased it a couple times already, but you can just check out the "Performance" section of the blog post. It states that the best case scenario is no performance penalty, and that in the general case there are performance penalties, which may be offset by CPU performance improvements in handling the pipelines. And rather than listing any performance improvement metrics, a list of maximum permitted regressions which they tested for is cited.
I think this misstates the case. Shader objects are a radically different API and data structure design in order to enable performance improvements and increase maintainability. Yes, when narrowly benchmarked, Shader objects may perform slower. But the intention is to enable performance wins by allowing games to drop very complex abstractions over pipelines.

It is like a micro version of OpenGL versus Vulkan in the first place. Head to head, there is no reason for Vulkan to be faster than OpenGL, but the API surface of OpenGl doesn't map onto the way renderers actually work anymore, leading to expensive abstraction layers and a twisty maze of OpenGL extensions designed to access the real power of the hardware. Vulkan reduces implementation complexity, while increasing performance by actually providing a closer match to developer needs and the hardware's design. Shader objects are the same .

Khronos ships a software layer that enables the extension on top of pipelines, but passes onto the underlying driver implementation if it's there. The minimum regression in the standard is in order to ensure that driver's don't implement bad versions in order to comply, thus preventing the dev community from leaving pipelines behind, and leaving the software layer as a guaranteed minimum performance target that ISVs can rely on.

In the long term, Khronos expects that shader objects will be a perf win on the GPU side too, depending on how hardware evolves. But even in the short term those CPU wins are real when running on drivers that support the extension directly, like the new Nvidia driver.
 
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Does anyone have a favorite mockup/concept rendering of what they want the Switch 2 to look like?
This'll do it.
gbqcmPr.jpg

Believe it or not, there is a chance that a significant chunk of their audience might write it off if the reveal to launch window is too narrow given it has no game changing form factor like the Switch and can easily be misinterpreted with reactions like ¨Just a Switch Pro, I´ll wait for Nintendo´s REAL next gen console in a few years¨
As a worst case scenario, that's a pretty good one to have. OLED model was still 10 million for its first year.

I don't think most people would EXPECT a mid-gen upgrade in year 7 or 8, so I don't think it will take much to convince the people who aren't fools or trolls that that's not the case.
 
SEGA was fucking fantastic in its heyday and if it had kept its console manufacturing and its old spark until today, I would have been more into them than Nintendo.

The old SEGA and their clear blue skies is just something I... really vibe with.
 
But why not announce at least two games for 2H 2023 during the last Direct? The lack of information on anything after Pikmin 4 (barring DLC, but I don't think they we should consider them on the same level as a new game, aside from potentially, Xenoblade) is rather atypical of this company. I highly doubt Nintendo is just going to coast the rest of the year on DLC, TotK, and their tertiary ventures, so I would argue that an announcement of new hardware is imminent. If it is coming next year, we likely would have had more information on 2H, like we always do and it would be announced in the fall. This all might be confirmation bias, but this is what I've hypothesized.
They are announcing their games when they are ready. What's the reason to announce anything else in that Direct when TotK was launching just a 3 months from that point. Isn't it better to announce your Holiday game after TotK is out? Later in June for a October/November release? In 2021 they announced Metroid Dread and Mario Party at E3. In 2013, they announced Super Mario 3D World at E3 (altough it was mentioned earlier for few seconds that new 3D Mario would come later that year). In 2014 they announced Captain Toad at E3 for release later in that year, the same with TriForce Heroes in 2015 and this extends. 2022 was different since they had announced all Holiday titles already either in previous year or earlier in the year (Pokemon, Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, Mario Rabbids 2 etc.). This also happened in different years. There isn't a set pattern that they need to announce Holiday titles earlier in the year, they will announce them based on their marketing timing and schedule. Right now am operating in a scenario that they have full General Direct and in it, they will show new 2D Mario for release later in the year (roughly 4+ months from reveal to release, the same that NSMUDX and Super Mario Maker 2 had). They will probably have some smaller stuff for Holidays too. The lineup that Nintendo has for this year, with TotK included is something other could only dream of when system is old as it is and 2D Mario is perfect de ja vu title for this Switch. Then later in this FY (by the end of March 2024) we will get Switch 2.
 
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Do we have any substantial evidence that the device could still come this year?

No there isn't. But there's a time frame within which it should come considering the information (not rumor) which we had through 2022 regarding Drake. That time frame starts around October this year and finishes around October 2024.
Anything before is science fiction and anything after is cancellation.

The actual release date is anyone's guess. Mine is between March to June 2024.
 
So I've been thinking, and Nintendo really needs to do these things to guarantee the Switch 2's success:

1) Shadow-drop it. People loved Hi-Fi Rush and Metroid Prime Remastered being shadow-dropped, so why not do it for a console? To keep from leaks they need to make sure not to tell anyone, not even publishers and retailers: the surprise is everything.
2) Price it $100 more than the Steam Deck. More profits and it's Nintendo, after all. People will be all over it. They love Mario!
3) Don't release a mainline Mario game for it.
4) Focus hard on 2D games, designing the entire system around making sure they look the best. 3D games aren't the future nor will they ever be.
5) Call it the Nintendo Uranus

What does everyone think? Personally, in these turbulent times, the above will really cement Nintendo as a major platform holder for many years to come.
 
Every Nintendo console up to this point has a distinct identity, even those with a similar feature set - the closest Nintendo has come so far to making a straightforward incremental upgrade of a console design (not counting minor revisions in the GB/DS/3DS lines) was the SNES and the Wii U, and even those were distinguished by their large gaps in technical capability, major controller upgrades, and (in the case of the Wii U) a new set of unique software features.

I wonder if Nintendo will replicate this with the Switch 2 - the minimalist design philosophy that is pervasive in the Switch's hardware and system software doesn't seem to provide much room for innovation. I expect we're going to see a bigger and thicker tablet, minor redesigns on the dock (maybe not even that, considering the evidence that the latest dock models are already designed for a new console) and Joy-Cons, rounded corners in the menu, maybe a couple new controller gimmicks.. but I can't see it feeling like as big of a leap as any of their other consoles did. The Switch is already at the point of graphical fidelity where, while better graphics will be a nice selling point, it won't be as striking of a jump as NES->SNES or Wii->WiiU were, so I doubt it'll distinguish itself technically like those consoles did.

I wouldn't be surprised if, considering the massive success of the Switch, Nintendo largely sticks to its design philosophy from now on, making small revisions over the years to match up with current design trends - and design trends haven't changed much since 2017. It's an obvious move for Nintendo to make, but I'd be disappointed if new Nintendo consoles end up looking like yearly iPhone revisions - new Nintendo consoles used to come with new design philosophies, huge technical leaps, radical new feature sets or paradigm shifts.. but how do you get any of that out of a minimalist, 'jack of all trades' device like the Switch?
 
4) Focus hard on 2D games, designing the entire system around making sure they look the best. 3D games aren't the future nor will they ever be.
Nintendo should unironically rerelease the GBA with a store and some onboard storage and send their ninjas after all the heathens that tried to develop 3D games for it
 
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Every Nintendo console up to this point has a distinct identity, even those with a similar feature set - the closest Nintendo has come so far to making a straightforward incremental upgrade of a console design (not counting minor revisions in the GB/DS/3DS lines) was the SNES and the Wii U, and even those were distinguished by their large gaps in technical capability, major controller upgrades, and (in the case of the Wii U) a new set of unique software features.

I wonder if Nintendo will replicate this with the Switch 2 - the minimalist design philosophy that is pervasive in the Switch's hardware and system software doesn't seem to provide much room for innovation. I expect we're going to see a bigger and thicker tablet, minor redesigns on the dock (maybe not even that, considering the evidence that the latest dock models are already designed for a new console) and Joy-Cons, rounded corners in the menu, maybe a couple new controller gimmicks.. but I can't see it feeling like as big of a leap as any of their other consoles did. The Switch is already at the point of graphical fidelity where, while better graphics will be a nice selling point, it won't be as striking of a jump as NES->SNES or Wii->WiiU were, so I doubt it'll distinguish itself technically like those consoles did.

I wouldn't be surprised if, considering the massive success of the Switch, Nintendo largely sticks to its design philosophy from now on, making small revisions over the years to match up with current design trends - and design trends haven't changed much since 2017. It's an obvious move for Nintendo to make, but I'd be disappointed if new Nintendo consoles end up looking like yearly iPhone revisions - new Nintendo consoles used to come with new design philosophies, huge technical leaps, radical new feature sets or paradigm shifts.. but how do you get any of that out of a minimalist, 'jack of all trades' device like the Switch?
There's no reason to suspect this device will be any bigger or thicker. Given we already have what appear to be power consumption tests, the cooling and battery situation would be pretty much the same as the original V1 Switch. That and the fact it's possible for this device to use the Dock with LAN Port that already exists, and it really can't change size that much.
 
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