Rather than what Nintendo is saying when asked about the unannounced new console, which can often only be interpreted in a hindsight except for statements such as "No new console, please enjoy and go suck on some ice while you're at it", I think that Nintendo's release schedule and marketing strategy, combined with game development cycles, are a much better indicator on what they have in store.
We currenlty have no visibility whatsoever after summer; this is indeed uncharted territory, and it tends to indicate that Nintendo is preparing something unusual; or they are incompetent and put themselves in those uncharted territory with no preparation. I trust Nintendo to not do that, they like money too much. I do not believe that for example, Nintendo is holding back the 3D Mario marketing to give Zelda (or Animal Crossing) breathing space. I also do not believe that Nintendo doesn't have a 3D Mario nearing completion after 6 years and zero DLC besides Luigi Balloons. Thus, Nintendo has probably a showable 3D Mario yet keeps it under wraps. My opinion was, and still is nearly a year later, that it's because it's a launch title of the new console. It was also one of the reason (among other) why I did not believe that Zelda would be a launch title.
Combined with the knowledge that Nvidia has a Nintendo-targeted chip at an advanced stage of development, and considering the fact that the Switch is 6+ years old with declining sales (which Nintendo probably forecasted; it's their job), it is probable in my opinion that Nintendo will release their new console within the next 8 to 18 months along Mario. And since I like gaussian curves (we all have our kinks, don't judge), I place the maximum probability at around March 2024. Late 2023 wouldn't surprise me too much. Neither would late 2024, though it would disappoint me because I'm ready for a new console after 2023.
We currenlty have no visibility whatsoever after summer; this is indeed uncharted territory, and it tends to indicate that Nintendo is preparing something unusual; or they are incompetent and put themselves in those uncharted territory with no preparation. I trust Nintendo to not do that, they like money too much. I do not believe that for example, Nintendo is holding back the 3D Mario marketing to give Zelda (or Animal Crossing) breathing space. I also do not believe that Nintendo doesn't have a 3D Mario nearing completion after 6 years and zero DLC besides Luigi Balloons. Thus, Nintendo has probably a showable 3D Mario yet keeps it under wraps. My opinion was, and still is nearly a year later, that it's because it's a launch title of the new console. It was also one of the reason (among other) why I did not believe that Zelda would be a launch title.
Combined with the knowledge that Nvidia has a Nintendo-targeted chip at an advanced stage of development, and considering the fact that the Switch is 6+ years old with declining sales (which Nintendo probably forecasted; it's their job), it is probable in my opinion that Nintendo will release their new console within the next 8 to 18 months along Mario. And since I like gaussian curves (we all have our kinks, don't judge), I place the maximum probability at around March 2024. Late 2023 wouldn't surprise me too much. Neither would late 2024, though it would disappoint me because I'm ready for a new console after 2023.
The amount of shame they'd lay on you for disappearing for months at a time, feeling so lonely...I couldn't do it, no thank you.
