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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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The games for H1 2023 have been shown and my wallet is crying 🥲, in June we will get the rest of the titles for 2023.
I think Drake's release by 2023 is now remote, I'd say a 20% chance.

I'm aiming for 2024.
 
Josh5890 said:
Before the direct yesterday, I had 2023 new hardware at ~5%. Today though, I'm willing to give 2023 a 25% chance.
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Because the the roadmap for second half 2023 is damn near empty, it is easy to be suspicious something is up. They also didnt even mention Prime 4. Seems like the Prime Remastered drop would have been a time to thank fans for their patience for Prime 4, so here is Prime Remastered to play while you wait. Has Prime 4 been repositioned to be a Switch 2 launch title alongside a new 3D Mario?

Cybergatuno said:
For new hardware, I can't think of any hard reason for why Nintendo would need more than 2 weeks between reveal and release.
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I'm going to disagree with this. A few hundred thousand copies of a game at some Nintendo warehouses is easier to have planned out compared to millions of hardware units. Hardware also has many more manufacturing partners compared to having a bunch of Prime Remastered games printed. It does however show just how secretive Nintendo can be and totally blindside us, so I do suspect a short turnaround for reveal to launch with Switch 2.
 
Cybergatuno said:
Just a little wood into the fire ...

Metroid Prime Remastered releases physically 2 weeks after its reveal, and yet it wasn't leaked by anyone from retail. They probably didn't know yet since it doesn't have a big marketing.

For new hardware, I can't think of any hard reason for why Nintendo would need more than 2 weeks between reveal and release.
There are a few, avoid factory leaks, allow proper pre-orders and marketing (and eat into their current sales), etc.
But it could technically be a little as 2 weeks.
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Hardware, especially featured hardware, has completely different physical space needs in retail locations. Metroid Prime isn't getting a big standup display or a poster that needs to be prenegotiated (unlike Dread) and the space on the shelves for one game is the same as another. While the core of a Game Card is made by Micron, blank gamecards can be printed with data all over the world, reducing shipping costs.

Final assembly of a console happens at only a few factories in the world, the suckers are huge, and the display needs bespoke. If Nintendo dropped a new console with 2 weeks of notice, retail stores would be livid and many simply would not be able to stock them. No one is coming in early at Best Buy to put a couple copies of Prime on the wall, but you better believe they will have to double staff the night before a hardware launch to unload the truck and pile in the stock, set up the displays, and retire older products to meet contractual agreements on floor space.
 
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Mekanos said:
My main hangup with H2 2023 is I feel they would've definitely had TOTK launch with it, but I can't rule it out 100%. The June Direct will be very interesting.
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Unless the optics of a second delay would be too terrible to imagine, especially after giving the game a hard date. I don't remember the timeline offhand, though. So this theory might not hold water.
 
Dizzle said:
Unless the optics of a second delay would be too terrible to imagine, especially after giving the game a hard date. I don't remember the timeline offhand, though. So this theory might not hold water.
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My thinking is more that by 2022 if they were launching Switch 2 in Q4 2023, they would definitely know it, and would have planned Zelda accordingly, not announce it for May and then drop the Switch 2 six months later.
 
Mekanos said:
My thinking is more that by 2022 if they were launching Switch 2 in Q4 2023, they would definitely know it, and would have planned Zelda accordingly, not announce it for May and then drop the Switch 2 six months later.
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Completely agree. This is what makes me hesitant to be fully on board with H2 2023. But I'm certainly not counting it out.
 
Cybergatuno said:
Just a little wood into the fire ...

Metroid Prime Remastered releases physically 2 weeks after its reveal, and yet it wasn't leaked by anyone from retail. They probably didn't know yet since it doesn't have a big marketing.

For new hardware, I can't think of any hard reason for why Nintendo would need more than 2 weeks between reveal and release.
There are a few, avoid factory leaks, allow proper pre-orders and marketing (and eat into their current sales), etc.
But it could technically be a little as 2 weeks.
Click to expand...
Metroid Prime Remastered being shadow dropped and released in February when it could have held up a month in the schedule easily makes me think they have to have something decent in Holiday '23 but it could just be that they want to release chunky Zelda/Pokemon/Splatoon/Xeno DLC around then
 
Skittzo said:
Completely agree. This is what makes me hesitant to be fully on board with H2 2023. But I'm certainly not counting it out.
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If they have a new Mario on the way that is planned and built for Switch successor and Zelda is made for the Switch hardware, it makes perfect sense to give the Switch a big last hurrah (of high profile non-cross gen software) as Sony did with Ghost Of Tsushima and TLOU Pt II releasing on the PS4 a few months before the PS5 launch (especially considering Zelda like TLOU Pt II was delayed from the year before). They have plenty of stuff they can launch a console with in the pipeline.
 
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Mekanos said:
My main hangup with H2 2023 is I feel they would've definitely had TOTK launch with it, but I can't rule it out 100%. The June Direct will be very interesting.
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Same here, but I can reconcile it with the idea that Switch 2 will be backwards compatible it won't be a situation where Zelda is "the last hurrah".
 
I've been thinking about why Nintendo, in the event of a H2 Drake release, would release TOTK so close to a new console, and not do a BOTW and delay the game for the launch. And I have a theory that I'd like to present, to know what you think of it.

Nintendo's plan when delaying BOTW to the Switch's release was not to say "hey, buy the game on Switch instead of Wii U". The plan was to have consumers forget it's on Wii U to begin with.

Wii U was a relatively unknown console that the general market knew the name but that's pretty much it. Nintendo delayed BOTW because they knew they could get away with making it THE Switch game, and have people not even know there's a Wii U version. I have lost count of how many times people thought I was a liar when I said I had BOTW on Wii U; they just couldn't comprehend the idea that BOTW was not a game always intended for the Switch.

My theory is that Nintendo is okay with releasing TOTK so close to a new console because they know this strategy won't work with TOTK. Switch is not some relatively unkown console. No matter how hard Nintendo tries, they can't - and they know it - hide that it's a Switch 1 game.

And put yourself in the mind of the average Switch owner. If TOTK was released at the same time as Drake, would they buy a Switch 2 ? Hell nah. Why buy a new console to play the game you can already play ? Especially so that Nintendo gamers are not the ones looking the most at tech - most won't give a shit about a resolution and/or graphics boost.

The Switch stealing a Wii U game to make it THE launch title worked because of how unknown and unpopular the Wii U was. Everyone thought BOTW was a Switch exclusive. But if Nintendo wants to sell Drake, they need an exclusive that would make people actually want to buy the new console. Because everyone will know TOTK is not a Drake exclusive.

So selling TOTK alongside Drake would be useless as people would just play on their Switch, but it's not just that : selling TOTK alongside Drake would also be contreproductive - because it steals the show from the Drake exclusive.
Does Nintendo want gamers, at the launch of Drake, talking about a Switch 1 game ? They would want all the attention on the new stuff, and TOTK would steal that attention. People would just not care about the new console, and all the hype would be for a game that people can and will buy on Switch.

Also remember that when BOTW launched, basically no one owned a Wii U, so people who wanted to play BOTW, even if they knew it's on Wii U, would just buy a Switch instead for future proofing. Because if they have to buy a console, might as well buy the new one. But that won't work because everyone owns a Switch. Let's face it : the Wenn diagram of potential Drake buyers and Switch 1 owners is close to a circle. People will have a console that can play TOTK, and won't want to shelve 400 bucks to play the same game with shinier graphics.

In 2017, people who didn't know that BOTW was a Wii U game bought a Switch for BOTW. Those who knew it was a Wii U game but didn't have a Wii U bought a Switch because why buy a dead console. Those who had a Wii U and knew BOTW was coming on Wii U were for a large part core Nintendo fans who would have bought the Switch anyway. Everyone buys Switches thanks to BOTW.
In 2023 and in the hypothesis that Nintendo would release TOTK with Drake, people who don't know that TOTK is a Switch 1 game won't exist. Those who know it's a Drake game but don't have a Switch 1 have an extremely low probability of buying Drake because they didn't buy a Switch 1, and are probably not interested in Drake. Those who have a Switch 1 will either just play it on Switch 1, or be the core Nintendo fans who would have bought Drake anyway. TOTK sells 0 Drake system.

To sum it up, my theory is that Nintendo actively wants TOTK to not release alongside Drake because in the event Nintendo does that, everyone who would be a potential Drake buyer would just buy the Switch version - because they already own it and don't care for resolution- and the hype would be stolen away from Drake. What Nintendo wants is for the TOTK hype to die down at least a bit before Drake arrives with an exclusive, to have the game and the console be the center of attention.
 
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Josh5890 said:
Same here, but I can reconcile it with the idea that Switch 2 will be backwards compatible it won't be a situation where Zelda is "the last hurrah".
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Especially if Nintendo are able to patch their big Switch releases to be 4K compatible - then it would be an extra demo of the Switch 2's capabilities rather than a last harruh.
 
HankyPanky said:
looks more like Zelda was moved to May to give a bump to the next FY more than anything.

maybe we'll get Wind Waker HD & Twilight Princess toward the end of the year if they're stringing out out the remasters. clearly games are ready to go but being delayed to pad out this next year or gulp two.
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Seems like a weird business decision to push Zelda out when they ended up missing their targets. Now investors are annoyed, stock is being downgraded, etc. I think the game just needed more time to finish.
 
If Drake is coming this year - and this is hypothetical, I don't know how likely I think it is now - the release window may have been finalized before Zelda was delayed. In this scenario, Zelda was always coming before the new hardware (and they have other stuff in mind for launch titles) so there was no need to consider tying the two. Moreover, delaying Zelda from 2022 to Spring 2023 is a hell of a lot better optics than from 2022 to holiday 2023
 
I fully reject the idea that Nintendo would have, or should have, delayed TotK to fit a hardware launch later this year. When they revealed it, it was likely planned for release around 2021-2022, which obviously would have been completely independent from plans for upgraded hardware in 2023. When they announced its 2022 release date two years of COVID later, that's still nowhere near a potential holiday 2023 hardware launch. Then, just because the game's own development circumstances prompted a delay to 2023, why on earth would they make the choice to suddenly treat it as part of their 2023 hardware plans, when it clearly never was before? And disrupt the TotK-less plans for new hardware they certainly already had before the game's likely multiple delays pushed it even remotely close to that timeframe? And "six months" as stated, while a massive delay on its own, is not even what was on the table: a delay to holiday 2023 would have been at least 12 months, depending on what the internal 2022 release target was. That's a crazy thing to do even if Nintendo had suddenly wanted TotK to become part of their hardware plans (which, again, I don't believe they did).
 
hologram said:
If Drake is coming this year - and this is hypothetical, I don't know how likely I think it is now - the release window may have been finalized before Zelda was delayed. In this scenario, Zelda was always coming before the new hardware (and they have other stuff in mind for launch titles) so there was no need to consider tying the two. Moreover, delaying Zelda from 2022 to Spring 2023 is a hell of a lot better optics than from 2022 to holiday 2023
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Basically my thoughts in a more concise and less unhinged form.

You can also consider it from the opposite end, too. When TotK's development began in 2018, Nintendo was only working on the Mariko Switch and the Lite. The game's release window and positioning on the Switch were decided before plans for upgraded hardware even existed. An unforeseeable pandemic is the only reason things got stretched everything out so egregiously that now the two kind of seem sorta almost (but not really very) close to each other.
 
If they didn't delay TotK for Switch 2's H2 2023 launch then:
1) It IS backwards compatible
2) They have a bigger game, arguably a new 3D Mario (which would make sense) and some big game like Metroid Prime 4 as well as 3rd party stuff
 
"One per console" tends to be Nintendo's move for the main franchises. Tears of the Kingdom was a Switch game, Switch is a successful console, and the whole theme of the Switch era is "no dry years."

Tears of the Kingdom was never intended as a launch title, and you bet your butt that there are a bunch of games we've not heard of that were. Delaying Zelda again just to have it compete with whatever was planned as a launch title, while leaving the first half of the year pretty barren doesn't sound like a great move.

Even if the launch title is cross gen, the move is to announce it with the hardware, show how great it looks to whet everyone's whistle, then show it running on the old hardware. That's how you use cross-gen games to drive hardware sales, not the other way around.
 
LiC said:
Basically my thoughts in a more concise and less unhinged form.

You can also consider it from the opposite end, too. When TotK's development began in 2018, Nintendo was only working on the Mariko Switch and the Lite. The game's release window and positioning on the Switch were decided before plans for upgraded hardware even existed. An unforeseeable pandemic is the only reason things got stretched everything out so egregiously that now the two kind of seem sorta almost (but not really very) close to each other.
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Where are you getting that TOTK began development in 2018? I haven't seen that cited so I'm curious.
 
Mekanos said:
Where are you getting that TOTK began development in 2018? I haven't seen that cited so I'm curious.
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From Creating a Champion pg. 424 Aonuma says "Development of the next Zelda has already begun." The interview is a translation from the Master Works artbook which was released Dec 2017. So late 2017 is when I assume they started.
 
oldpuck said:
"One per console" tends to be Nintendo's move for the main franchises. Tears of the Kingdom was a Switch game, Switch is a successful console, and the whole theme of the Switch era is "no dry years."

Tears of the Kingdom was never intended as a launch title, and you bet your butt that there are a bunch of games we've not heard of that were. Delaying Zelda again just to have it compete with whatever was planned as a launch title, while leaving the first half of the year pretty barren doesn't sound like a great move.

Even if the launch title is cross gen, the move is to announce it with the hardware, show how great it looks to whet everyone's whistle, then show it running on the old hardware. That's how you use cross-gen games to drive hardware sales, not the other way around.
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Zelda has never really been a strict "one per console". Even some of the series that do adhere to that probably aren't doing so super intentionally.
 
Serif said:
From Creating a Champion pg. 424 Aonuma says "Development of the next Zelda has already begun." The interview is a translation from the Master Works artbook which was released Dec 2017. So late 2017 is when I assume they started.
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That's my confusion. Aonuma has already said it began development in 2017. We just don't know when in 2017 exactly.
 
I think there is definitely something mysterious going on with the second half of the year.
  • As it has been said, Nintendo didn't revealed software releasing after July in the last direct as they do more often than not
  • Now that I think about it, TOTK releasing in May was thought by many as weird and hardware releasing with it was a sensible explanation for this but what if TOTK and Drake weren't planned to release together, what does explain this ?
  • If a June direct doesn't happen and after July still feels empty then why didn't Nintendo delayed Pikmin 4 or TOTK to try to fill that hole ? While spacing out Cereza, Metroid and Kirby ?
  • Why did then Nintendo crowd the first half of the year and nothing about the second half ?
  • Maybe they have a new Mario game ? But why didn't they talk about it by now ? Maybe they want to finish with the movie first then reveal the game ? If so a June direct shall tell. If not it would be extra weird on the remaining of the year.

I think Nintendo wants to make space for something big happening after July that will fill that hole. If nothing big was happening and after July was empty then they could have just delayed TOTK or Pikmin 4 and space out H1 2023 games.

If Drake's release is to happen at the end of this year, 6 months after TOTK, I really think it will launch with an exclusive game. For some reason(surely because of remnants of Switch Drake can be midgen and Switch launch thinking) we assumed it has to launch crossgen with TOTK or a Switch game but I don't know, maybe Nintendo isn't confident enough that the performance difference alone would be enough to convince Switch owners to directly upgrade so they need to pump an exclusive with it at launch. Sure Metroid Prime 4 could be crossgen but I don't think this is what will carry Drake's launch but we never know.

Also recall TOTK was supposed to launch in 2022 and now being very dubious about Nate's late2022/H12023 timeline, if Drake was rather late2023/early2024 ever since then if TOTK's delay didn't happen there would be atleast a year between TOTK and the Drake Switch release also meaning TOTK never had anything to do in Switch 2 launch period.
 
Mekanos said:
That's my confusion. Aonuma has already said it began development in 2017. We just don't know when in 2017 exactly.
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Preproduction and planning are realistically the only things that could have been happening in 2017, as they were still working on BotW DLC. 2018 is likely the point when they kicked off a specific project with an end goal and timeline, which is why it would be the most relevant to what I was saying. Of course, if "real" development did start in 2017, that just further strengthens my argument.
 
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Josh5890 said:
I posted this on Install Base, but I will do it on Fami as well.

So I think this is the place to officially plant my flag regarding the future of Nintendo hardware. The quick and dirty is that Nintendo will have new hardware out by March 2024 and anything later likely means we will have a heavy software drought.

The main reason why I expect this is based on Nintendo's lack of games after July. Now, I know what people will scream at me. "Nintendo always keeps things close to the vest. They don't announce stuff too early." While that is very true, this feels different.
  • After Pikmin 4, there are no more "2023 games". Every year in the Switch era, after the Spring direct there are games that at least have a "coming this year" release window. The slate is suddenly very dry.
  • Nintendo's "new" first party announcements yesterday was the GB/GBA games and the
  • After Zelda: TotK is released, there will only be Prime 4 left from the group of games that was announced a long time ago. Everything from Bayonetta to Advance Wars will have been released. There isn't any other game left that is "well, this game could release this year..."
  • There are a lot of Nintendo groups and partner groups that have been quiet for quite a while. EPD 8 & 9, NST, Grezzo and Good Feel are just some examples. If we go even deeper, one could argue that a company like Next Level Games or Camelot might had another project on the side along with their recent Sports offerings. There are several teams that should be due to release something in the next 12~18 months, and normally some of those projects would have been announced by now.
Before the direct yesterday, I had 2023 new hardware at ~5%. Today though, I'm willing to give 2023 a 25% chance. I think Nintendo can coast through the later half of 2023 with more ports, software price cuts (Players Choice anyone?) and maybe one or two small surprises. I highly highly doubt we are getting a big Pokémon game this fall given Game Freak's output the last couple of years. So basically, Nintendo can buy a few months riding their library, but by early 2024, there really needs to be new hardware on the table.
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We probably have at least one more port/remaster this year and possibly Metroid Prime 4 this holiday. The more I think about it the more I think we’re getting a Direct in July or August to detail the rest of the year and early next year.
If the system ends up being holiday 2024 then 2023 could still have plenty of small games and ports/remasters.
 
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Waiting on two things at this stage:

1. Any updates from the Uncles that we can use to ascertain whether or not Nintendo's secrecy over the second half of the year pertains to a Holiday 2023 release for Drake/Switch 2 if any production updates come through.
2. June/July Nintendo Direct that will either confirm everything being suspected or flat out rest the case that this console isn't coming until early 2024.

I cannot wait till after TOTK releases because that is when things will get far juicier in terms of finally getting resolution on these matters.

#TeamHoliday2023 🤙
 
Zelda being released in May doesn't stop a Zelda 4K release later this year if it were to happen. Nintendo releasing a Switch 2 exclusive higher Def version will sell well. If anything, it will snag more double dippers then if they were released at same time.

That said there is a very large gap in software knowledge. Nintendo is tight lipped, but they are not usually this barren on future news. It could very well be all they have left for the year will be remasters and dlc. If so that would be huge problem and one, they have acknowledged going back to the Wii they want to avoid as far as the library of games suddenly going dry at the end of life. Its a good way to ensure Switch as a platform dies off faster.

People will make excuses about the current library is enough for new gamers etc. but the reality is Hype is generated as much by new people as by the people who currently own the system. When the current owners fade off due to a declining library the hype around the device in general dies.
 
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Josh5890 said:
Same here, but I can reconcile it with the idea that Switch 2 will be backwards compatible it won't be a situation where Zelda is "the last hurrah".
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I should say when I said last hurrah, i meant like last big Switch game before they announce and start promoting the following games with successor even if the games are cross gen as Ghost Of Tsushima and TLOU Pt 2 were for PS4 before Spider-Man launched with PS5
 
I feel like the new hardware won't come as a surprise, we've seen the investors restless already, I think Nintendo will talk about it well in advance, even if it's not officially revealed. So as long as they're quiet, I'm not expecting it this year. And if it is this year, then I really expect them to mention it early May in their new FY outlook.
 
My prediction of Switch lineup after June

2023
July - Pikmin 4, Pokémon SV Expansion 1
August - Switch Sports Expansion, Yoshi's Wooly World
September - Detective Pikachu, F Zero GX Online
October - Super Mario Bros 5
November - Mario and Sonic at the Olympics
December - Pokémon SV Expansion 2, Zelda TotK DLC

2024
February - Pushmo
March - Tamodachi Life Sequel
April - Paper Mario TTYD or Paper Mario Colour Splash Remaster
May - Xenoblade X
June - Pokémon Lego Go 2 or Black and White Remake
July - Zelda Link Between Worlds Remaster
August - Donkey Kong Spin Off
September - Switch 2 and Metroid Prime 4 (Cross Gen), Switch 2 Casual game
October
November - New 3D Mario
 
Mekanos said:
My main hangup with H2 2023 is I feel they would've definitely had TOTK launch with it, but I can't rule it out 100%. The June Direct will be very interesting.
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It's a bit of a Schrödingers Cat thing. Would Zelda help the launch of Drake? Maybe! Does Drake need the help of Zelda? Maybe? Does Zelda need Drake to sell gangbusters? Maybe! Can Zelda sell gangbusters without Drake? Maybe!

If Drake launches in Q4 2023, Zelda is still fresh enough for both to help each other out imo. In this situation, them having a "smaller" big game like 2D Mario or something similar, it can work out.
 
kalosmani said:
My prediction of Switch lineup after June

2023
July - Pikmin 4, Pokémon SV Expansion 1
August - Switch Sports Expansion, Yoshi's Wooly World
September - Detective Pikachu, F Zero GX Online
October - Super Mario Bros 5
November - Mario and Sonic at the Olympics
December - Pokémon SV Expansion 2, Zelda TotK DLC

2024
February - Pushmo
March - Tamodachi Life Sequel
April - Paper Mario TTYD or Paper Mario Colour Splash Remaster
May - Xenoblade X
June - Pokémon Lego Go 2 or Black and White Remake
July - Zelda Link Between Worlds Remaster
August - Donkey Kong Spin Off
September - Switch 2 and Metroid Prime 4 (Cross Gen), Switch 2 Casual game
October
November - New 3D Mario
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You forgot the Splatoon 3 and Xeno 3 DLCs for late 2023
 
I haven't kept on top of hardware talk, but I do think 2023 is still pretty mysterious post-Direct. That's kinda fun, especially because there's a lot for me to play for now. I think there's several possibilities at play here:

1) new hardware is late 2023, hence Nintendo keeping things under wraps and avoiding E3. I could see a late June/early July reveal with an accompanying software showcase not long after. The big title for the end of the year is 3D Mario on new hardware in October; something cross-gen and mass-market in November (Tomodachi? Mario Party? An Animal Crossing spin-off?); and perhaps Metroid Prime 4 or remasters of Primes 2 and 3. Prime R's lower price point has me suspecting that we'll be seeing more Metroid in 2023. Nintendo skip E3 because they want to talk hardware in their own time, and not 3 weeks after Zelda at E3.
2) new hardware is at some point in 2024. Nintendo are keeping quiet on software plans simply because they want to keep the immediate focus on Zelda and the Mario movie. Looking at coverage across gaming websites over the last 2 days, I'd say Nintendo have done a pretty good job of keeping the focus on Zelda and the near-term on Switch; Prime R and the GB/GBA dropping out the blue has also made people really focus on the here and now, and the Zelda trailer is mysterious enough that people are once again digging through it and talking about it.

In any case, I don't think the odds are high that Nintendo only rely on remasters and expansions for the second half of the year. So far in 2023 they're spacing new releases out every other month. Wouldn't surprise me if we see 2 or 3 new games clustered into September through December alongside the expansions and more re-released content (a little like 2018, which had 2 big new titles in Party and Smash at the end of the year). The years on Switch where Nintendo lean on old content tend to pretty full in terms of the number and frequency of releases; I suspect Nintendo know that fewer titles with major mainstream hype means they need to try and get more stuff out in general to appeal to as many people as possible. With the obvious exception of Zelda, everything for this year's confirmed line up will sell less than 5 million copies. Compare that to Pokemon Legends, Kirby, Switch Sports, Splatoon 3 and Pokemon Scarlet/Violet all exceeding that milestone last year, and I think that illustrates the point I'm making - Nintendo need more stuff in general to drive engagement in the absence of more mainstream titles; though that doesn't mean the second half will be entirely missing any major mainstream game.

In the near-term, Pokemon Presents at the end of this month should perhaps fill out the software slate a little more (DLC, Detective Pikachu, another spin-off, perhaps NSO updates). I'm wondering if Nintendo do a Super Mario event or Direct - perhaps on March 10th (Mario Day!) to talk about the film, new merchandise, and perhaps videogame plans for the series this year. If that happened, I think we wouldn't be getting new hardware (because I'm 100% in on 3D Mario being the launch title), but we would get a new 2D Mario confirmed for later in the year and perhaps a spin-off or remaster of some sort (a 3D All-Stars reissue? Super Mario RPG HD? Mario sports? Mario Party? New Super Mario All-Stars?). In the absence of both new hardware and new Pokemon at the year's end, Mario is Nintendo's most bankable option. Equally, if new hardware is coming, I think 3D Mario is the most obvious choice for getting the system off to a strong start. I find it odd we've seen so little of the series for 2023 when last year's Mario slate was unusually thin, and when this is the plumber's year on the big screen, so I do think something moustachioed is waiting behind the scenes.
 
the funcles don't seem to have ever implied plans have changed, right? they've just had vague allusions to a timeline we don't know
 
Bonejack said:
It's a bit of a Schrödingers Cat thing. Would Zelda help the launch of Drake? Maybe! Does Drake need the help of Zelda? Maybe? Does Zelda need Drake to sell gangbusters? Maybe! Can Zelda sell gangbusters without Drake? Maybe!

If Drake launches in Q4 2023, Zelda is still fresh enough for both to help each other out imo. In this situation, them having a "smaller" big game like 2D Mario or something similar, it can work out.
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Zelda definitely will sell gangbusters without Drake.
 
kalosmani said:
My prediction of Switch lineup after June

2023
July - Pikmin 4, Pokémon SV Expansion 1
August - Switch Sports Expansion, Yoshi's Wooly World
September - Detective Pikachu, F Zero GX Online
October - Super Mario Bros 5
November - Mario and Sonic at the Olympics
December - Pokémon SV Expansion 2, Zelda TotK DLC

2024
February - Pushmo
March - Tamodachi Life Sequel
April - Paper Mario TTYD or Paper Mario Colour Splash Remaster
May - Xenoblade X
June - Pokémon Lego Go 2 or Black and White Remake
July - Zelda Link Between Worlds Remaster
August - Donkey Kong Spin Off
September - Switch 2 and Metroid Prime 4 (Cross Gen), Switch 2 Casual game
October
November - New 3D Mario
Click to expand...

I absolutely hope this does not come to pass.

September 2024 Switch 2 release is just absurd and some of those titles easily can fill a 2023 spot.
 
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Cybergatuno said:
Just a little wood into the fire ...

Metroid Prime Remastered releases physically 2 weeks after its reveal, and yet it wasn't leaked by anyone from retail. They probably didn't know yet since it doesn't have a big marketing.

For new hardware, I can't think of any hard reason for why Nintendo would need more than 2 weeks between reveal and release.
There are a few, avoid factory leaks, allow proper pre-orders and marketing (and eat into their current sales), etc.
But it could technically be as little as 2 weeks.
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Technically, they could pull a SEGA with the Saturn and say, " Hey, switch 2 releases today, " but there are reasons no other company has ever done that before or since. It's chaos, it pisses retailers off, and it confuses consumers.

The comparison with Prime Remastered is a bit wishful, IMO. First off, there are 2 weeks between reveal and release in the US. In Europe, it's a bit more than 3, which I think gives some insight into the challenges of revealing a product and releasing a physical version in such little time. Nintendo would need to gamble and prioritise one market over the other. That was terrible for the PS3 in 2005, and I think it would hurt the brand.

Then you have to consider the scope of the successor to Nintendo's most successful console since the DS and compare it to a remake of a "minor" game (it's no TOTK. If Nintendo hasn't been able to deliver the physical version of the game to all markets at the same time in such a short timeframe, I find it difficult to believe they could do that with an actual console, with the logistics this entails.

This seems very unlikely, all things considered.
 
If Drake really ends up being an actual Switch 2, a hard successor, i could see Nintendo wanting to keep announcement and release within a 6 months timeframe.
Similar to the current Switch. (Counting from when it was first shown in Oct 2016 and not when it PR said that they work on a new system codenamed NX)

So if it's 2023, they would have to announce it sometime in May / June. Dunno if May might be tricky or not, but i feel they wouldn't risk putting a damper on TotK's launch sales because enthusiats would be "gonna wait for Drake then".
 
Bonejack said:
If Drake really ends up being an actual Switch 2, a hard successor, i could see Nintendo wanting to keep announcement and release within a 6 months timeframe.
Similar to the current Switch. (Counting from when it was first shown in Oct 2016 and not when it PR said that they work on a new system codenamed NX)

So if it's 2023, they would have to announce it sometime in May / June. Dunno if May might be tricky or not, but i feel they wouldn't risk putting a damper on TotK's launch sales because enthusiats would be "gonna wait for Drake then".
Click to expand...

Nintendo gonna do what Nintendo gonna do, but to me, revealing the Switch 2 BEFORE TOTK is the right thing, especially especially if Switch 2 is coming this year.

For the marketing
As a part of the hype cycle of this game, showing off the improvements drake makes (and thus having an even more amazing final epic trailer) having the hardcore wait a few months to get it with the new console isn’t a that big deal, the normies are going to see the better trailer and get it if they want it or not. The game will have a long tail regardless.

For consumer confidence
Revealing if and how the title will be cross-gen. If they announce this and select other titles will be playable on Switch 2 with these graphical updates, for free? Feels good. Makes some hardcore okay with not waiting that might have waited for Switch 2 had they not known so it may be more of a wash.

Also if Nintendo decides to be dicks and release the 4K version of TOTK for another 70 bucks? And you find that out a couple months after getting the inferior version for Switch 1? Feels bad man.
 
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LiC said:
Preproduction and planning are realistically the only things that could have been happening in 2017, as they were still working on BotW DLC. 2018 is likely the point when they kicked off a specific project with an end goal and timeline, which is why it would be the most relevant to what I was saying. Of course, if "real" development did start in 2017, that just further strengthens my argument.
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i just really really hate the distinction between "preproduction" and "real" development.

You cant have real development without preproduction,
ti is tied directly to the project, it ties up resources and costs money.
preproduction is not PRE development, its the FIRST part of development.
If something is in preproduction, its in development.
Thats a hill im gonna die on.

its usually just used to diverge discussion why a project took so long.
 
mjayer said:
Nintendo gonna do what Nintendo gonna do, but to me, revealing the Switch 2 BEFORE TOTK is the right thing, especially especially if Switch 2 is coming this year.

For the marketing
As a part of the hype cycle of this game, showing off the improvements drake makes (and thus having an even more amazing final epic trailer) having the hardcore wait a few months to get it with the new console isn’t a that big deal, the normies are going to see the better trailer and get it if they want it or not. The game will have a long tail regardless.

For consumer confidence
Revealing if and how the title will be cross-gen. If they announce this and select other titles will be playable on Switch 2 with these graphical updates, for free? Feels good. Makes some hardcore okay with not waiting that might have waited for Switch 2 had they not known so it may be more of a wash.

Also if Nintendo decides to be dicks and release the 4K version of TOTK for another 70 bucks? And you find that out a couple months after getting the inferior version for Switch 1? Feels bad man.
Click to expand...

I don't think Nintendo would do a full Drake 4K version. I can see them doing a patch on Drake, paid or not, or put it in as a feature for the all but confirmed Expansion Pass.

Generally, Nintendo should value customer goodwill over pressing each coing possible out of something in the beginning.
 
Bonejack said:
Dunno if May might be tricky or not, but i feel they wouldn't risk putting a damper on TotK's launch sales because enthusiats would be "gonna wait for Drake then".
Click to expand...
Realistically though those enthusiasts will get FOMO and cave. It’s Zelda, people have caved over far less.
 
I feel like people are too focussed on the idea that the Switch 2 launch has anything to do with ToTK (myself included). Honestly looking at it now, I don't think ToTK is, or was ever intended to be, a cross-gen title. Work would have started on it in 2017 immediately after BoTW released, and 2 or more years of development would have been completed on ToTK before work on the new console even started. It was also almost certainly intended to be released at least a year before Switch 2, and although development delays may have pushed it closer to Switch 2 than intended, that doesn't mean it's suddenly a cross-gen game. If the development team is having trouble getting a large scale, ambitious project like ToTK out the door on time, the last thing they'd want to hear is "So, given it's taking longer than expected to finish for Switch, why don't you massively rework almost the entire game so that we can use it as a graphical showcase for our next gen console?"

I think ToTK will probably get a "4K" patch, because I expect Nintendo to patch a handful of Switch games for the new console as a cheap way to bolster the Switch 2 launch lineup. I don't think it will be much more than a resolution increase, though, maybe with increased draw-distance or other simple to implement changes like that. We won't be getting ray tracing or anything like that.

Looking at the current Switch lineup post-Direct, as other people have noted there's only a single announced first party Switch game that won't be released by July (Metroid Prime 4). Nintendo stuck extremely close to their "only H1 2023 titles" for this direct, with Pikmin 4 only creeping over into H2 by a couple of weeks. Invariably in the past they would have announced one or two first party games with a vague 2023 release window at a direct like this, but we actually only got a single first party announcement, Metroid Prime remake, which of course they released immediately.

I know there were already reports that Nintendo would have a very light release schedule after ToTK, but I'd be amazed if they're going to go through the last five months of the year with only a single first party title in MP4. Nintendo have gotten a lot better with avoiding software droughts since consolidating their software development to a single platform with Switch, and it seems unlikely to me that they'd leave the second half of the year so quiet. Even if they just don't have that much software ready for this year for one reason or another, they could have avoided front-loading it so much and pushed some games back to the second half of the year.

It could be confirmation bias, but to me that makes it seem more likely that Switch 2 is releasing in the second half of the year. We've been focussed on looking at dates where Nintendo has major game releases (eg ToTK), but we probably should have been doing the opposite: look at dates where Nintendo has absolutely nothing announced. I do think a lot of Nintendo's early Switch 2 titles will be cross-gen games, but it makes no sense to announce them for Switch and only later reveal they're cross-gen. Look at Sony and Microsoft's recent cross-gen titles: every one of them was revealed running on the new generation hardware, and Sony barely even acknowledged the previous gen versions of the games. When you're announcing a game, you want to show it off in the best way possible, and running on previous gen hardware isn't it.
 
Here is an interesting snippet, on the bandai/namco FAQ for Baten Kaitos...the game supported resolution while docked is 1080p (*works up to 1440p)

Baten Kaitos I & II HD Remaster: Q&A | Bandai Namco Entertainment, Inc.

<p>Find out answers to the most common questions regarding Baten Kaitos I & II HD Remaster.</p>
www.bandainamcoent.com www.bandainamcoent.com

I could be looking too much into this but found it interesting. I can't think of another game that supports a higher resolution.
 
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