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I do care, at least about when Drake releases. 2023-2024 is a nice expected timeframe. 2025 or later and I'll start wondering what went wrong.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)
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The two rumors that bug me in combination are "Switch production is increasing" and "Post-TOTK lull, Nintendo doesn't have anything worth making an E3 booth over". If both of those are true the answer that might best serve both is "Extra production is for next gen hardware, which will have no interesting games", which would also be pretty stupid.
I suppose that the "good news" is that a Direct is supposedly scheduled for soon. Not that it should come as a big surprise though.
As for the rest, as long as we're not provided with any more details about that supposed "proof", I'm going to operate under the assumption that it's BS.
Goodtwin
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The post TotK lull doesn't come from a trusted source, so I would probably ignore that speculation for the time being. Things could look very different in a couple weeks once a Direct has shown off more software set to release this year. If Nintendo were aiming for Switch 2 late 2023 release, E3 would make sense to show it off. Especially if Sony and Microsoft are skipping the event, it would be all eyes on Nintendo with Switch 2. If they aren't releasing until 2024, all bets are off, and we might not see it revealed until after the new year since Nintendo wouldn't want to hinder OG Switch sales.
D
Deleted member 887
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If Nintendo wants to launch next-gen hardware, then they have games for it. And if they want to show those games during/after the hardware is announced, there is going to be a fallow period before that launch.
We've been living with a cross-gen period in our mind for so many years, but Nintendo is about to have a proper 6.5/7 year Switch generation. There is every reason to hold games till after announcement, rather than announce games, then say they'll be playable on new hardware. The better marketing move, even if they are cross gen, is to show the games in full glory on day one, then mention they'll be playable on your old Switch (in 720p graininess).
We've been living with a cross-gen period in our mind for so many years, but Nintendo is about to have a proper 6.5/7 year Switch generation. There is every reason to hold games till after announcement, rather than announce games, then say they'll be playable on new hardware. The better marketing move, even if they are cross gen, is to show the games in full glory on day one, then mention they'll be playable on your old Switch (in 720p graininess).
I'm going in and expecting the classic.
Aonuma appears, explaining the game isn't quite ready yet, and a delay to Holiday 2023. We apologize for the inconveniences, but don't worry, we have another 50 second trailer for you.
Then Switch 2 speculation for Holiday 2023 will run rampant again, as we live in the endless now.
But no doubt a trailer rivaling Botw's Jan 2017 one would be really nice.
10k
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Drake delayed to 2024 so they can get it on 3nm MBCFET
LiC
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I disagree about the best marketing strategy, but this isn't about holding off on showing certain games, this is about whether or not there will be games releasing while they're preparing new hardware.
In the past, there was only ever a next-gen handheld or home console to worry about, never both at the same time, so the appropriate teams would shift development to the new platform and game releases would slow down for that current platform only, while the other kept humming right along. Now there's only one platform. What on earth would make Nintendo decide to have all their teams stop releasing games for it at the same time, instead of staggering them so noteworthy releases could continue right up until the new hardware, as they would in the past (thanks to the separate platforms)? That makes no sense whatsoever. They've been able to sustain continuous releases for six years, and they can (and will!) do the same right up until the new hardware is ready.
And that's regardless of what their plan is for the marketing of cross-gens, exclusives, whatever.
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12GB tops I think.
Spheromancer
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Just want to comment here to address everyone about the rumour on the Gaming Leaks subreddit earlier today. Was approved by a new mod before I woke up, not something the mod team represents. Looking through the "proof" it was as barebones as it gets.
Also the 7th is not only a Tuesday, a day on which Nintendo has never held a February direct, but it's also the day of the earnings/investors meeting. It makes no sense for the Direct to be on that day. I dont want us to be connected to this rumor at all, treat it as BS.
That being said... I still stand by the "primed and ready" source. If there is no Metroid at the next Direct I will eat all the crow!
Also the 7th is not only a Tuesday, a day on which Nintendo has never held a February direct, but it's also the day of the earnings/investors meeting. It makes no sense for the Direct to be on that day. I dont want us to be connected to this rumor at all, treat it as BS.
That being said... I still stand by the "primed and ready" source. If there is no Metroid at the next Direct I will eat all the crow!
Anyone knows why the post was deleted? External pressure or have they come to the conclusion that is was BS?
Hosermess
Koopa
Much appreciated.
I don't really buy that Nintendo won't have a new Mario game this year, given the movie and theme park attraction opening in the US.
To be honest I treat anyone who claims to have insider info on Nintendo's actual software pipeline with a huge grain of salt. I've been following Nintendo since the 90s through every kind of website, magazine, etc. ... no one has ever predicted their software library for a year correctly.
Nintendo's internal software development is kept very tight and it's hard for there to be leaks because this isn't like a hardware where dev kits have to go out to hundreds of devs all across the world and/or manufacturing factories have to get the heads up or have actual production months in advance.
Unless you have sources within Nintendo's software dev teams in Japan, and I seriously doubt any US/Europe based insider has anything close to that, you really can't know what Nintendo is doing internally. Shit, I don't even think NOA knows what the Japanese side is working on until that much earlier than anyone else, Nintendo only gives that info on a need to know basis.
To be honest I treat anyone who claims to have insider info on Nintendo's actual software pipeline with a huge grain of salt. I've been following Nintendo since the 90s through every kind of website, magazine, etc. ... no one has ever predicted their software library for a year correctly.
Nintendo's internal software development is kept very tight and it's hard for there to be leaks because this isn't like a hardware where dev kits have to go out to hundreds of devs all across the world and/or manufacturing factories have to get the heads up or have actual production months in advance.
Unless you have sources within Nintendo's software dev teams in Japan, and I seriously doubt any US/Europe based insider has anything close to that, you really can't know what Nintendo is doing internally. Shit, I don't even think NOA knows what the Japanese side is working on until that much earlier than anyone else, Nintendo only gives that info on a need to know basis.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
Because they don't want to release two big Zelda games in the same year.
Other than the Threehouse team working on game localization, I'd say so too.
MP!
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D
Deleted member 887
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I find it hard to believe Nintendo would attach their development calendar to external things like that. Maybe they've had one banked for a while?
The strongest tie in is a game built on nostalgia that is very welcoming to new players - NSMB Wii? Galaxy 2?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
NSMB Wii is just U but worse though, lol.
Galaxy 2 by itself is probably not happening.
I think there's a decent chance that a new 2D Mario comes out since one might have been in development since 2019, but it could take a lot of time if this is a gameplay and art reboot of the series.
They were very skeptical.
I mean, unless they want shit sitting on shelves for a long while after, I guess. feels like a waste if you ask me
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It could depend on what their long term production plan is. Might make more fiscal sense to produce a bunch now even if they won't sell all of them and then less next year, leaning on the remaining stock from this year to help bolster supply.
Or they could be just producing more parts to be shared with different hardware as I suspect.
lattjeful
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Maybe if we're lucky, the 1000 page party and the Drake launch party will overlap.
davec00ke
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i'm still waiting for the console SuperMetalDave64 promised me.
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You and me both.
Kazuyamishima
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lattjeful
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Write me down as number four
snorkellingfish
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After thinking about it, Nintendo no-showing at E3 isn't inconsistent with a holiday 2023 release, even if the reported reasoning is true.
If their planned announcement for a Switch 2 is after E3, it would make sense that they'd want to wait to show Switch 2 / cross-gen heavy hitters until they can show them running on a Switch 2. In that case, they'd have upcoming titles, but those titles wouldn't be available to show at E3.
I'm not sure that we can read anything either way from E3.
If their planned announcement for a Switch 2 is after E3, it would make sense that they'd want to wait to show Switch 2 / cross-gen heavy hitters until they can show them running on a Switch 2. In that case, they'd have upcoming titles, but those titles wouldn't be available to show at E3.
I'm not sure that we can read anything either way from E3.
Something interesting to think on is potential price points and if there will be much of a crossover period.
I'm sure that beyond the mainboard components, the Switch OLED and Switch 2 will have similar or the same components - case, screen, controllers, and battery - and that all of those are relatively easy to source or manufacture more of, but that the mainboard components for Switch 2 will be more difficult.
I could see a scenario where $300 Switch 1 is discontinued when Switch 2 (which should be OLED) is released, but production capacity of Switch 2 is more limited for a while and where Switch 2 starts somewhere between $400 and $500. This catches early system demand issues and increases the costs and risks around scalping.
When production capacity of Switch 2 hits its stride, Switch OLED is discontinued and Switch 2 either keeps it's $400 price (I hope it's not higher) or drops to meet the pricing void left by the Switch OLED.
I neither believe or disbelieve that there will be a direct on Feb 7. Most of that post is wrapped around conspiracy level stuff -
Nintendo has never done a February direct on a Tuesday. Tuesday directs are usually only done for E3. - and - Nintendo's investor meeting is also on the 7th, and that doesn't make sense for the Direct to be on the same day. - are good examples of that.Frankly if they mean to talk about a Switch 2 at the investor meeting and don't want to leave much time for speculation before the actual announcement, then a same day direct makes a bunch of sense.
Goodtwin
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Nintendo's manufacturing partners have a finite capacity for what they can produce. With Switch still selling very well, it is certainly possible they may want to create a reserve of Switch stock so that they can transition to creating Switch 2 stock at some point. I would assume Nintendo wants to avoid having severe shortages of Switch 2 units for sale when they do decide to roll it out. Good chance that those manufactures cannot keep up with current Switch demand while simultaneously gearing up to manufacture the next system. Depending on when Nintendo rolls out Switch 2, there could be a fiscal year where Nintendo is in position to sell through over 30 million units of hardware between the old and new model.
davec00ke
Octorok
The problem with that is days consoles falling in price is over, thats the reason why xbox made the series s because they did not want to lumbered only selling a $500 console for a generation.
No reason for them to have games sit on the shelf for so long if the game is already completed and ready to go. Could mean that most game development had moved onto the next gen console (my speculation only). So they need to tier off releases to keep the switch going until the next gen switch.
Klax0nKlax0ff
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I’ve seen people put forth an explanation for Nintendo increasing Switch production that they may be stockpiling units so they can sell them later. Not sure if speculation is that current production lines are due to be phased out or get more expensive and they are getting ahead of that. But would Nintendo’s investors like that if that’s the case? I don’t follow the investor relations and stock market closely enough to know if that would be viewed negatively for a company’s financials. My impression is that it’s not a financially healthy practice. Circumstances are what they are, of course and Nintendo has to deal with the situation accordingly. But from the investor/stock holder angle, wouldn’t their stock price take a hit at this news?
davec00ke
Octorok
I doubt they will tell their shareholders.
There's a problem there that Nintendo is not Microsoft. They're not necessarily going to run the same strategies.
That's also not a problem. It could be Switch 2 coming in at $400 and the OLED staying at $350. There are many scenarios for Nintendo swapping out consoles in the market. They could release 2 at $350 and clearance OLED and Red Box Switch. They could aim to have Switch Lite 2 out at the same time as Switch 2, or not.
One of Nintendo's big challenges past putting out a backwards compatible successor that's marketed well and sells effectively is dealing with excess Switch 1 inventory. How they do that will both be visible to us and invisible. The best we shall see of that will be through the lens of their pricing and discontinuation strategy.
I wonder if the 3DS early pricing fiasco is far enough in their past that they'll commit that blunder again. I know WotC forgot about their OGL/GSL fiasco of 2008 when January of 2023 came around.
I was talking about switch consoles themselves. increasing production but not expecting to sell all of them means flooding the channels, which isn't always the best move if the tide turns
Could also be a situation where they're talking about getting inventory of parts that may not be easily available in a year or two. We are about to hit the 4th year of Mariko. Mariko being the replacement Erista which was in the market for the Nvidia Shield for 4 years at that point.
If they've already chosen a release window for the Switch 2, then they need to make sure they have enough inventory to:
- Continue to deliver Switch 1 product until they discontinue it
- Continue to be able to make repairs
- Optionally have enough to produce Switch Lite units until a Switch 2 die shrink happens so they can make a Switch Lite 2.
Thomas_T9
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Why would it be too large if it’s “ideal for small form-factor, low-power products like drones and handheld devices”?
Look over there
Bob-omb
Too large in the $$$ sense. Too much unused silicon that Nintendo would have to pay for.
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Random aside:
Anybody else see that rumor of Ada's Titan supporting 48 GB of ram? That's either 24 or 48 GDDR6 chips. Let's go with 24, as the latter is too silly. 24 chips would conventionally imply a 768-bit memory bus width. But that also seems silly. But Samsung did announce GDDR6 stacking towards the end of last November. So let's the 48 GB quantity checks out; then we're looking at 24 GDDR6W chips stacked within an area equivalent to 384-bit bus width. Naturally, it implies Samsung being the memory supplier for this card specifically, as opposed to the rest of the 40 series so far (and a few of the 30 series) using GDDR6X, which was a special thing developed between Micron and Nvidia.
as others said, too many useless parts for what Nintendo needs. and other segments like drones and larger edge devices aren't power/heat constrained like the Switch is
Armoured_Bear
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I really don't think E3 has any relevance to Switch 2, the console makers have been steadily withdrawing from E3 for several years, this would have happened anyway.
Not that I think we'll get a console this year but as far as E3 goes - nothing to see.
Not that I think we'll get a console this year but as far as E3 goes - nothing to see.
Klax0nKlax0ff
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But if they increase production on Switch and don’t meet the sales targets for the year, the investors will find out and ask why their forecasting was so off.
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