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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Unless, of course, that number includes a new model ;)
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Correct me if I’m wrong but those 2017 sales were for the period between March 2016 and March 2017 no? So it doesn’t quite align with the Switch if one is to expect a 2023 launch based on this small increase in production, if Nintendo wanted to follow suit they’d actually release it Spring 2024. The slight uptick for that year was probably spurred on by Pokémon Sun/Moon, with Go massively boosting brand popularity for the franchise.

Mind you I’m still very much open to 2023, hell even a May launch. I think Nintendo planned the successor to release 6 years in and is gonna for the most part stick with it.
It would have included switch sales for the month of March, but the point is that the Switch was a known quantity for a period of that year of sales so should have had some impact on sales volumes. I would expect that Drake being released much earlier in switches 7th fiscal sales year would hurt OG switch sales more, but if its a premium priced product and Nintendo does in fact provide an option that's compelling and cheaper than the lite using tx1 then it could have the opposite effect. All depends on marketing of both products.
 
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So what your saying is that they learned nothing from the end of the Wii? Got it.
Well, they are still having a solid run of games, so there is not such a software drop off.
The adaption rate of software is also better. and the eshop helps them keep customer buying software. so yeah, its not quite the same.
the wish for HD was also higher with general audiences compared to 4k.

If they manage to milk the shit out of it and make a huge margin on hardware due to lower cost of goods instead of artificially killing a successful product by introducing a successor that has an impact on revenue and ROI, they actually are master planners :)
the thing is, it is a really risky move. its kind of trying to edge it out as far as they can to maximize profits,
but with that they risk overextending it, missing the ideal cutoff point and having to battle for 1-2 years to get back into the seat.
Don't know, not the maximum profit but stable and safe long term income seems to be the better move for a company like nintendo?
And its not like there arent methods when the switch 2 releases to monetize the heck out of switch:
make it cheap, low entry point, let the budget conscious spend tons on indies, evergreens and titles that can be cross releases.
 
Finally, on the matter of that report about Nintendo planning to ramp up production for the Switch this year, it isn't being specific at all about the hardware that is actually concerned.
Nintendo Co. plans to increase production of its six-year-old Switch console in the coming fiscal year after shipping roughly 21 million Switch consoles in the year ending March, according to people familiar with the matter.

Sounds pretty specific to me.
 
Saw many people pointing out that the Nintendo leadership is much more conservative since the Furukawa took over. But I mean, the whole board is still the same, only thing that changed is that Furukawa is CEO now.
 
Saw many people pointing out that the Nintendo leadership is much more conservative since the Furukawa took over. But I mean, the whole board is still the same, only thing that changed is that Furukawa is CEO now.
It’s not the only thing that changed.
  • Ko Shiota replaced Genyo Takeda
  • Shinya Takahashi replaced Shigeru Miyamoto
  • Chris Meledandri added
 
This.

I think they're about ready to introduce a new member of the "Nintendo Switch Family of Systems".
I was thinking about that too, but... Bloomberg says that vendors have been warned of plans to ramp up production...
I don't think this can be interpreted as "we are adding a new model with completely different SoC".
 
I was thinking about that too, but... Bloomberg says that vendors have been warned of plans to ramp up production...
I don't think this can be interpreted as "we are adding a new model with completely different SoC".
Depends on which vendors they're talking to and how many components the two models will be sharing.
 
It’s not the only thing that changed.
  • Ko Shiota replaced Genyo Takeda
  • Shinya Takahashi replaced Shigeru Miyamoto
  • Chris Meledandri added
Replacement by Shiota was still done under Kimishima.

Takahashi did not replaced Miyamoto, he replaced him only as a leader of all software. Which was inevitable. Takahashi was member of the board even in Iwata's era and Miyamoto is still member to this day. Only thing that changed are their positions to be more up. (f.e. Takahashi's position was switched to Shibata when he was brought up back to Japan in 2018 and Takahashi is now Senior Managing Executive Officer).

But yeah, Meledandri got added too because of their movie initiative.

But I think the main point I want to take from this is that the people that are here don't want Nintendo to became conservative that much or anything. People often brought up that Miyamoto is not that much into spotlight anymore, which is true but he is still right after Furukawa in terms of position.
 
I was thinking about that too, but... Bloomberg says that vendors have been warned of plans to ramp up production...
I don't think this can be interpreted as "we are adding a new model with completely different SoC".
Why can't it? They plan to ramp up production. They don't say "of existing Nintendo Switch models". They "ramped up production" in 2016 and 2017 for the Switch's launch.
 
While it is disappointing that we will have to likely wait longer, I can wait. It is a shame that we wont get a better version of Tears of the Kingdom (though I expect it will be ones of the games that gets a remaster when the Switch 2 comes out) I am sure the game will be fantastic and will look forward to a new successor when it comes. Was dying for the switch pro or whatever it was going to called but now that we are at least a year out, I can wait and just look forward to when it is announced, that is going to be really exciting.
 
While it is disappointing that we will have to likely wait longer, I can wait. It is a shame that we wont get a better version of Tears of the Kingdom (though I expect it will be ones of the games that gets a remaster when the Switch 2 comes out) I am sure the game will be fantastic and will look forward to a new successor when it comes. Was dying for the switch pro or whatever it was going to called but now that we are at least a year out, I can wait and just look forward to when it is announced, that is going to be really exciting.
Why would that be likely? Nothing factual has so far suggested a delay. In fact some reputable news sites are reporting production for Nintendo is actually accelerating. 😉
 
Replacement by Shiota was still done under Kimishima.

Takahashi did not replaced Miyamoto, he replaced him only as a leader of all software. Which was inevitable. Takahashi was member of the board even in Iwata's era and Miyamoto is still member to this day. Only thing that changed are their positions to be more up. (f.e. Takahashi's position was switched to Shibata when he was brought up back to Japan in 2018 and Takahashi is now Senior Managing Executive Officer).

But yeah, Meledandri got added too because of their movie initiative.

But I think the main point I want to take from this is that the people that are here don't want Nintendo to became conservative that much or anything. People often brought up that Miyamoto is not that much into spotlight anymore, which is true but he is still right after Furukawa in terms of position.
I don’t think it really matters if it was done by Kimishima as that was another inevitable one

For Nintendo not to be conservative they would have to have a radical change in thinking. Considering Furukawa is a protégé of Iwata & a numbers guy I don’t see that happening. I mean Kimishima is still there as well just not on the board as an Executive Adviser.
 
An increased forecast at this stage Is very much like defying the laws of physics. Being mindful that this is Bloomberg reporting and not yet a formal forecast, I would find even a no change forecast to be aggressive, so increasing forrcast is a puzzler.

The received wisdom last couple of years was COVID moved forward demand and declines post covid are expected.

Suffice to say Expecting an up year suggests Nintendo isn't just going to be doing special editions. It could be increasing orders to hide a Switch successor, or be more benign like a new revision or revisions , a new product offering in a new configuration, and price cuts.
 
Sounds pretty specific to me.

May 2, 2021
TOKYO -- Nintendo will ramp up output of the Switch to about 30 million units this fiscal year, Nikkei has learned, marking an all-time high for the flagship gaming device in a bid to capitalize on continuing stay-at-home demand. The Kyoto-based company approached multiple parts suppliers about accelerating production. People with direct knowledge of the matter verified plans to expand output.



May 6, 2021
Fiscal Year ending in 3/22 Nintendo Switch hardware forecast: 25.50m



Specific != correct
 
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so seems there is two camps here:
Camp 1. This thing isn't coming out until 2024/2025 and Nintendo wanting to sell 20 mil this year confirms that
Camp 2. This thing is coming this year and Nintendo wanting to sell 20 mil this year confirms that

Im Camp 2. Lets go bayyyybayyyyy
 
so seems there is two camps here:
Camp 1. This thing isn't coming out until 2024/2025 and Nintendo wanting to sell 20 mil this year confirms that
Camp 2. This thing is coming this year and Nintendo wanting to sell 20 mil this year confirms that

Im Camp 2. Lets go bayyyybayyyyy
Camp 1 is cringe and realistic, while Camp 2 is based and dumb. Somehow, I'm cringe (no hardware this year) and dumb (#Team2027)
 
ok can someone please help me understand this... theres one video from switchforce saying no switch until 2025?!?!?!!?!? then on the4 flipside this spanish youtuber behind the games say the switch 2 is in pre production??!??! what is going on????






Watch better content creators
 
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ok can someone please help me understand this... theres one video from switchforce saying no switch until 2025?!?!?!!?!? then on the4 flipside this spanish youtuber behind the games say the switch 2 is in pre production??!??! what is going on????





Neither of them have any idea what's going on.
 
ok can someone please help me understand this... theres one video from switchforce saying no switch until 2025?!?!?!!?!? then on the4 flipside this spanish youtuber behind the games say the switch 2 is in pre production??!??! what is going on????





too much time spent looking for answers on youtube is all that is going on
 
so seems there is two camps here:
Camp 1. This thing isn't coming out until 2024/2025 and Nintendo wanting to sell 20 mil this year confirms that
Camp 2. This thing is coming this year and Nintendo wanting to sell 20 mil this year confirms that

Im Camp 2. Lets go bayyyybayyyyy
Option 3 big plans for Switch. Price cuts. New revision perhaps with a new form factor

Option 4 reporting error.

I'm open to all options but on the surface increasing production defies all logic and there has to be a reason, even if its something we don't think will work. Saying management is insane or not smart is probably not a reason for me.
 
so seems there is two camps here:
Camp 1. This thing isn't coming out until 2024/2025 and Nintendo wanting to sell 20 mil this year confirms that
Camp 2. This thing is coming this year and Nintendo wanting to sell 20 mil this year confirms that

Im Camp 2. Lets go bayyyybayyyyy
Camp 2 makes more logical sense.

Camp 1 is cringe and realistic, while Camp 2 is based and dumb. Somehow, I'm cringe (no hardware this year) and dumb (#Team2027)
No need for insults, to yourself or anyone. Camp 2 as they put it is definitely the more logical choice, because Camp 1 has to suppose Nintendo will increase demand year on year with no solid reasoning, while Camp 2 has a simple answer backed by facts and factory leaks alike: The increased production is to launch a new console which can produce its own demand.
 
I don’t think it really matters if it was done by Kimishima as that was another inevitable one

For Nintendo not to be conservative they would have to have a radical change in thinking. Considering Furukawa is a protégé of Iwata & a numbers guy I don’t see that happening. I mean Kimishima is still there as well just not on the board as an Executive Adviser.
Iwata had nothing to do with the choice of Furukawa. If he knows anyone well, it's Shibata, with whom he worked for a long time in Europe, and indeed his biggest managerial decision to date has been to promote Shibata strongly.

Furukawa was appointed in order to reassure the markets and the company with a more coporate and conventional profile. It was this same internal desire for a reassuring consensus that led to the appointment of Kimishima to ensure the transition.

The choice is consensual because we're talking about someone who has spent his entire career at Nintendo and knows the internal culture, but even so it's first and foremost someone who studied Political Science,who knows marketing well and will be open to all sorts of diversifications, who has links with the Polemon Company, and who for the moment has done nothing more than let people work where they were before his arrival, because everything was working well.

We'll see when things aren't going so well how "conservative" he is. My fear is that he won't be conservative enough, i.e. that he won't be able to go against the stupid whims of the financial community like "common, give up your own hardware and make mobile games".

Those who absolutely want Nintendo to be "less conservative" partly forget that this would basically mean denying the corporate culture that makes it special for the best.
 
Camp 2 makes more logical sense.


No need for insults, to yourself or anyone. Camp 2 as they put it is definitely the more logical choice, because Camp 1 has to suppose Nintendo will increase demand year on year with no solid reasoning, while Camp 2 has a simple answer backed by facts and factory leaks alike: The increased production is to launch a new console which can produce its own demand.
you're so based...

I gotta believe!
 
Iwata had nothing to do with the choice of Furukawa.
this is probably wrong. Furukawa may not have taken his place immediately but like Tim Cook Furukawa was being groomed as a successor while Iwata was sick. Depressingly, the interim probably had to do with Iwata's cancer being so aggressive when it returned.

...now I'm sad
 
I feel like a price cut makes more sense for the increase than it somehow being a new console.

2023 just feels so unrealistic to me, unless this thing releases in November.
 
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The trick to believing is to make sure you're not emotionally invested enough that you're actually hurt when it doesn't happen.

Just remember it's all for fun.
yeah tbh im just using this hardware speculation as a way to make the days til TotK go faster. That is MY big thing this year. Even if a switch 2 launched this year it still wouldnt over shadow TotK for me
 
you're so based...

I gotta believe!
The trick to believing is to make sure you're not emotionally invested enough that you're actually hurt when it doesn't happen.

Just remember it's all for fun.
Skittzo is right. While I'm trying my best to work with the facts and leaks we have to try and make sense of it, I'm just a stranger on the internet.

With that said, this is the situation that makes the most sense to me.
 
Can someone give a timeline or explanation for Switch T239 being pushed to early 2024/early 2025, that would lead folks to accept this speculated timeframe at face value. Again, neither yesterday's podcast nor Digital Foundry's article try to reconcile it with NVN2 or Linux data. One explanation could be that the manufacturing would be for some other T239 device slated for this year which hasn't been announced yet. Is that it ?

I'm gonna keep poking and prodding at this.
 
this is probably wrong. Furukawa may not have taken his place immediately but like Tim Cook Furukawa was being groomed as a successor while Iwata was sick. Depressingly, the interim probably had to do with Iwata's cancer being so aggressive when it returned.

...now I'm sad

Kimishima himself said he thought of Furukawa when he was leading the transition. And their profiles are relatively similar, by the way.
As you say, Iwata unfortunately had other sad things to care about anyway.
 
this is probably wrong. Furukawa may not have taken his place immediately but like Tim Cook Furukawa was being groomed as a successor while Iwata was sick. Depressingly, the interim probably had to do with Iwata's cancer being so aggressive when it returned.

...now I'm sad
Reggie refers to Furukawa as a "Iwata's right hand man at the time". It's pretty telling to me that they had no plan what so ever on Iwata's successor, since his cancer came back in around of March 2015. And after that it sadly got pretty quick. So I don't believe Furukawa was after positioned as future CEO, that was done when Kimishima took over since they knew he is only temporary.

Anyway, way of topic here. Just wanted to point out my two cents.
 
The talk about Miyamoto before made me think about when hes done with Nintendo. The man is basically the reason Nintendo is what they are. Creating, Zelda, Mario, DK, while having important roles in Pokemon red and blue and metroid prime. ALSO NINTENDOGS.

There are alot of accomplished people in the video game space but i think he is by far the most important.
 
ok can someone please help me understand this... theres one video from switchforce saying no switch until 2025?!?!?!!?!? then on the4 flipside this spanish youtuber behind the games say the switch 2 is in pre production??!??! what is going on????





ah youtube, great for misinformation
 
Can someone give a timeline or explanation for Switch T239 being pushed to early 2024/early 2025, that would lead folks to accept this speculated timeframe at face value. Again, neither yesterday's podcast nor Digital Foundry's article try to reconcile it with NVN2 or Linux data. One explanation could be that the manufacturing would be for some other T239 device slated for this year which hasn't been announced yet. Is that it ?

I'm gonna keep poking and prodding at this.
That device probably would have been announced at CES, which is why 2023 remains an open question for a new Nintendo system.
 
Loving all the copium in this thread. Lol.

Now, we just need the Factory Uncle's to weigh in...
Analysis of the facts is not copium. 🤭

The fact is there has been continuous work on the T239 on the public Linux kernel. That it was leaked that T239 is for "Hovi", and that "Hovi" is Nintendo.

We can't extract a specific time from that, but we can talk probabilities.
 
I'm sure this has been asked before, and is a tiring question, but I don't follow the thread super closely and am not super tech knowledgeable, but how 100% sure are we that the T239 is the chip they're using? I know the whole NVN2 thing ties it to Nintendo because the Switch is NVN, but is there anything other than that? Like is it not possible they're using something we know nothing about that wasn't leaked?
 
I'm sure this has been asked before, and is a tiring question, but I don't follow the thread super closely and am not super tech knowledgeable, but how 100% sure are we that the T239 is the chip they're using? I know the whole NVN2 thing ties it to Nintendo because the Switch is NVN, but is there anything other than that? Like is it not possible they're using something we know nothing about that wasn't leaked?
Possible? Sure. Likely? No.

This chip, according to the leaks, was designed in consultation with Nintendo, then, according to Linux commits, produced and subsequently tested extensively.

Why would they go into fabrication with a chip FOR Nintendo if Nintendo chose not to use it?
 
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Iwata had nothing to do with the choice of Furukawa. If he knows anyone well, it's Shibata, with whom he worked for a long time in Europe, and indeed his biggest managerial decision to date has been to promote Shibata strongly.

Furukawa was appointed in order to reassure the markets and the company with a more coporate and conventional profile. It was this same internal desire for a reassuring consensus that led to the appointment of Kimishima to ensure the transition.

The choice is consensual because we're talking about someone who has spent his entire career at Nintendo and knows the internal culture, but even so it's first and foremost someone who studied Political Science,who knows marketing well and will be open to all sorts of diversifications, who has links with the Polemon Company, and who for the moment has done nothing more than let people work where they were before his arrival, because everything was working well.

We'll see when things aren't going so well how "conservative" he is. My fear is that he won't be conservative enough, i.e. that he won't be able to go against the stupid whims of the financial community like "common, give up your own hardware and make mobile games".

Those who absolutely want Nintendo to be "less conservative" partly forget that this would basically mean denying the corporate culture that makes it special for the best.
By all accounts Furukawa was being groomed as Iwata’s heir apparent much like Yamauchi did with Iwata. Iwata’s untimely death resulted in the board selecting Kimishima as a steadying hand before handing the reigns over. So no it was not just because they wanted to reassure the markets or have a more corporate profile.

If you believe him, Furukawa is very much influenced still by Iwata & Yamauchi
While he may change the company a bit, Furukawa still wants to preserve Nintendo going into the future.
 
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