For funsies, here's a slightly beer-inspired hypothesis of what Nintendo's next few years might look:
2023: TOTK is the Switch's last big launch (I mean in terms of number of units sold). The rest of the year is bulked out with Pikmin 4, maybe something Mario related to tie into the movie, and a load of remasters/remakes of old games, predominantly single player ones. Rumours begin to swirl their new console is coming, which Nintendo begin to acknowledge. Nintendo cut the price of the base Switch to give it one last big Christmas to compensate for these rumblings, before a very late reveal of Switch 2 before Christmas (Game Awards maybe?)
2024: Switch 2 launches in March before financial year end. Metroid Prime 4 is the big launch game, while at the same time multiple updates are issued to 'improve' already launched games such as TOTK and Splatoon 3. A new Mario Platformer or equivilent is the big Christmas game, but any games that are released are largely cross gen with Switch 1.
2025: Cross gen compatible games with Switch 1 begin to be phased out as Switch 2 builds on its installbase. Nintendo's big games for this year are Mario Kart 9 and Animal Crossing, and GameFreak (knowing them) will likely release Pokemon Gen 10 this year as well. To cap things off, a new Smash is revealed to be in development.
2026 and beyond: Smash launches 2026, and a new Switch 2 exclusive Zelda is launched the year after. Probably slot Splatoon 4, Xenoblade 4 and many Fire Emblems in there somewhere as well.