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Predictions Will the Switch 2 be a "bust" to Nintendo Switch's "boom"? [READ OP BEFORE VOTING]

Will the Switch successor be a "bust" to Switch's "boom"? [READ OP BEFORE VOTING]

  • Total voters
    169
  • This poll will close: .
I don't see a Switch 2 do the same numbers as the og Switch as long as it is nothing more than a more powerful Switch, especially now that there is a fierce competition in handheld PC's.

Nintendo will have to convince old customers and new kids & their parents why the Switch 2 will be the next hip thing and it will need more than just amazing software to do that.

I see opportunities for Nintendo to do that, but it remains to be seen what they are going to do. I'm not expecting Nintendo to have much "new tech" this time around, technical prowess will impress many gamers but not everyone. To do better Switch 2 will have to reach new audiences.

So yeah, without much else to go on for now I definitely will say "Bust"
 
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Worth noting that the Switch name and brand has greater potential for longevity.

NES is a fairly standard name but over time the 'entertainment system' portion would become clunky and dated, dropped with the Nintendo 64. Famicom would also no longer be a descriptive name over time as what a 'home computer' was became more defined.

Game Boy is a cute riff on 'Walkman', and associated with lightweight portable gaming. It would begin to feel less and less appropriate, so to say, the moment we'd be getting larger devices with home console level visuals that are also intended to plug into a TV. Interestingly enough, Sony still manufactures devices with the 'Walkman' brand, cause it was always about high-quality personal audio on the go and that hasn't changed.

DS is associated with dual-screen touch gaming, it would have to be dropped the moment a device stopped using two screens or risk confusion. The Nintendo 'Indy' 3DS successor prototype, for example, had a single screen, so presumably the DS name would have been dropped from this device.

Wii has become associated with casual gaming, motion controls and accessories, that is the image the console cultivated no matter how many beloved core games were on the system. Even though I think 'Wii 2' is a better name than Wii U, it would still carry the baggage of that name.

Switch carries much less baggage. It appealed to both core and casual gamers right off the bat, the hybrid flexibility has a broad appeal, its library is diverse, and the console itself just casts a wide net. The name itself is cute and easy to say, it's descriptive of the console's main feature, and it's a word English-speakers use in everyday life so it already has an immediate familiarity and can be incorporated in a bunch of marketing print. It's become intrinsically associated with the hybrid console form factor and new PC handhelds are being called 'Switch-likes' regardless of if they have detachable controllers or not.

I haven't heard any alternative names for Switch that hit all the right points, I don't think there's a reason to drop the name until the brand itself becomes worn out. And I have doubts about that.

Skittzo said:
See, now this post @Mekanos may be a bit closer to uh... being interesting on this day.
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I live in NYC and I forgot... sorry
 
Some things will be hard to quantify, what will it do for Switch 2 to have games such as Call of Duty hopefully running well on it? Will the increased third party support of bigger games to the Switch 2 lead to Nintendo expanding with another audience of gamers that weren't interested in them or their consoles previously?
 
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I think we live in a very different console market today than we did back when even the PS4 was around. I think the most important thing for Nintendo is to expand a lot more globally. There is a lot of untapped potential in emerging markets beyond Europe, Japan and the USA that they can capitalise on massively.

So while it may not replicate the Switch's total sales in existing markets, it can always expand into others where the Switch isn't a known quantity.
Also, just to add to the lack of additional features discourse, I think the PS5 and Series X/S are proving that by the numbers improvements can be immensely successful all on their own (adaptive triggers are not a generation defining feature imo, especially when so few games actually use them.)
 
bellydrum said:
So a "bust" in this case means "doesn't sell 130+ million units"?

Well, sure
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Yeah the logic is pretty insane, it means that Playstation consoles have failed since the Ps2 by not matching the sales figures of that console. Playstation have consistent high sales, but not every console sells better than the previous one. I'd think Nintendo would settle for releasing hybrid consoles with consistently high sales as well.
 
Iโ€™m honestly expecting another PS4->PS5 situation here. Despite basically being a PS4 Pro Pro so far and being even more expensive at launch (likely to perhaps not even see a price cut, at least not till much later), its doing just as well. I donโ€™t really see why the Switch 2 couldnโ€™t replicate that so as long as it maintains what made the Switch 1 such a success. Thereโ€™s no big shift or change in direction happening here and your handheld PCs appeal to completely different markets. Plus itโ€™ll start off with considerably stronger support than the Switch 1 did. At most, I see a slight decline
 
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Itโ€™s going to sell a lot, but I donโ€™t think thereโ€™s any chance it gets close to the Switch lifetime. I would guess it sells between 90-110m total. Still great numbers, of course.
 
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I say yes.
  • 8" display, making the overall system much bigger than its predecessor
  • LCD, downgrade from current Switch
  • will require more expensive expandable storage
  • higher fidelity games before the EPD expansion is complete meaning Nintendo's output will drop dramatically
  • strong competition from other large size handhelds
  • pricing themselves out of their "second console" niche

obviously this is dependent on heavy conjecture and the turbulent leaks, but I'd say we're looking at a similar transition to DS -> 3DS: a clear upgrade that prices itself out of ubiquity. bonus points for completely giving up on portability too.

I have faith that whatever comes after it will be fucking fire though (Virtual Ball?)
 
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bellydrum said:
So a "bust" in this case means "doesn't sell 130+ million units"?
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It means not matching or exceeding the success of the predecessor, which, yes, in this case is 130+ million units
Danny said:
Yeah the logic is pretty insane, it means that Playstation consoles have failed since the Ps2 by not matching the sales figures of that console. Playstation have consistent high sales, but not every console sells better than the previous one. I'd think Nintendo would settle for releasing hybrid consoles with consistently high sales as well.
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I address PlayStation in the OP lol

Hero of Hyrule said:
you can actually argue this is an industry wide trend - Microsoft has consistently failed to do this. Sega consistently failed to do this back in the day. So did Atari. The only real exception to this is Sony (PS1->PS2, PS3->PS4, probably PS4->PS5), though even they had their stumbles (PS2->PS3 being legendary for how badly it was borked, and the less said about PSP->Vita, the better).
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SpringwoodSlasher said:
I wish there was a third optionโ€ฆI donโ€™t think it will bust but I would be surprised if it surpassed the OG Switch. Switch had COVID, which was unprecedented, and generated a ton of revenue for Nintendo.

So I guess I will vote โ€œbustโ€, but I donโ€™t think it will be a bust at all.
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Yeah, I was kinda forced to vote Yes.
I do believe hardware sales will not meet Switch. But on the flip side of that, the more important metric I anticipate to go up, and thatโ€™s software sales. I expect the next hardware to have lower hardware sales but a higher software sales volume, which would (IMO) still classify it as an equal or better success than Switch.
 
Based on movement from Switch Sales (if both are 7-7.5 year life spans, inflation is reigned in and no major recessions in the west, and supply is good throughout the year) I would expect the odds to be like this:

Generally I'd expect 80-90% of switch sales. Not unlike the SNES to the NES but closer. I think they may struggle to sell Switch 2s to all Switch 1 owners, especially families and people who may pick up a lite (a price cut will move a lot of switch 1 units, not unlike the NES or PS2 continuing to sell way after next gen).

% of switch sales
odds of occurrence
<70% 2% very unlikely, would be a very unexpected failure
70-79 17% somewhat likely
80-89 35% very likely
90-99 24% fairly likely
100-109 15% possible, but not very likely
110-119 5% still possible, but a big achievement (shareholders happy lmao)
120+ 2% very unlikely, very big win (PS2-esque Nintendo dominance for a gen and a very great position moving in to the generation after)

What would increase the odds?

1. Enough 3rd party support and exclusives to be more people's "Main console". (something the switch has already been somewhat successful at relative to old Nintendo consoles). (ie getting COD for 10 years+, its actually weird the switch got no COD support with its install base, it did well enough on Wii so). Sounds like 3rd parties will be easier to port than in the past and some Nintendo teams haven't released anything for a while. They seem very prepared.

2. An aggressive or good price, $400 USD or even less would be good for a lot of people. Getting a lite or other paired down and cheaper console would also help. It also makes sense to make the barrier to entry cheap and make up the money in other ways (NSO and main game price increases, or getting games with some recurring income out (microtransactions are a dirty word but stuff like new costumes seem possible). Pricing remains to be seen and depends heavily on cost (including stuff like labor and warehousing).

3. Improved online. Frankly online games on switch are fairly poor. They have been improving but its still sub par. I genuinely cannot get friends online to want to play Mario Kart or Smash or Mario party etc because of the quality. This also limits being on top of free online game trends. (Nintendo would not want to miss the next trend like battle royale was etc, they would want those games ASAP).

4. Cross-promotion with movies/media etc. This one could be really big, with the theme parks and movies starting up. Timmy sees a DK movie, he might want a DK game or skin. Nintendo's IPs are very well known, but have historically Nintendo has been over-restrained in this space, lots of room for growth and clear focus for them now.

5. Remaining the clear choice with growing competition. Handheld PCs are held back by limited stock, highish cost, restrained marketing and difficulty in entering a competitive market. There is a chance they grow or even that either Sony or MS enter the market. Sure they don't want to split their dev teams and support multiple products, but the Switch market share is very tempting, it IS the clear market leader. They will be watching that. Still I would assume in the short term their competitors won't step up in the space too much.

This also goes for home consoles. Sony and MS are in heavy competition, if they continue to secure or pay for exclusives or otherwise make their product more competitive that will have some impact on the switch 2.

6. Aiming for more social media breakout successes from in house. Its hard to control for, but stuff like building stuff in TOTK is very "shareable". Something like Animal crossing taking off during COVID.

7. Backcompat and digital offers, NSO, digital and physical.
Better yet an offer ala the PlayStation collection as an early adopted incentive. Unlikely to as ninteno values keeping their games at a premium cost, but if they really wanted to they could pack in some software. Or create a bigger tier for a subscription services. Recurring income is very good. With the more recent price increases from Sony, it may indicate that offering expensive next gen games costs more than the customer base can bare, but I expect most people who are paying will continue to pay.

8. Hardware revisions, (ether a pro, or more minor revisions like lite or OLED or other stuff entirely). A pro only really helps substantially if the generation pushes out for a long time or they get games they wouldn't otherwise get. The new sales/double dip are unlikely to be >20-30% of the total install base, but it is sales. Sony seems happy with the performance of their pro models. Its not impossible there will be some change in hardware trends, like streaming take off much more. Being on top of this stuff is important too.
 
The NES to SNES and DS to 3DS and Wii to WiiU falloffs are due to extremely strong competition emerging that took huge chunks of their audience. While the Switch has garnered some minor competitors in the handheld PC space, it's nowhere close to how much competition the Genesis and iPhone were.
 
I have concerns about the successor. I think the casual audience that helped build the Switchโ€™s massive install base will shrug since it wonโ€™t be apparent why they need to replace their machine when it already has Mario Kart 8, Mario Party, etc.

I think bust is a stretch, though, because it feels to me like core fans are going to buy in and also because it is hard to imagine any device with the new Pokemon being a bust.
 
BowserIsMyFather said:
I feel like they are about to introduce something else. T239 only tells part of the story, and it's simply not just the 'Switch 4K' some are expecting.

"One of the things we look at always is how can we surprise and delight. How can we introduce new unique ways of playing. Thatยดs always in front of our mind" - Dougy B

I mean, they could absolutely carry the Switch brand forward with more powerful innards, but would that bring them similar success in a market full of handhelds boasting increased power levels every year?

Not so sure.
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Very Real
 
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Not convinced that PC handhelds factor into this in some meaningful capacity.
 
I think Switch 2 will be another boom and break the pattern that Nintendo has had with a boom bust cycle (largely because I don't see a lot of the problems that created previous bust cycles happening this time around). That being said, I do also agree that Switch 2 likely won't outsell Switch 1. I do see it at least selling 120 million units (compared with likely over 150 million for Switch 1). That still would put Switch 2 in the Top 5, above all PlayStations except PS2 (although let's see what the PS5 does).
 
Sorry but that title is a โ€œbustโ€. You wouldnโ€™t even have had to explain so much in your OP if you had simply asked โ€œWill Switch 2 sell more units than Switch 1?โ€ Not to mention youโ€™re mostly using hardware sales as the sole metric for success.

Not that this poll makes any sense to do before we even know what the Switch 2 is.
 
Yeah your title is really not great OP, it's not fun having to agree with your premise that selling less than 130+ million units is a "bust"
 
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Boom.

Nintendo's brand and IP are only growing and now seeing surges of popularity from biggest ever movie's as well as games, theme-parks and the like...

I think Switch 2 will be Nintendo in their peak form and it will be around a looooong time... even longer than the Switch because with 2 they're going to tighten up loose ends they had with piracy, joycon drift, not to mention the power gap due to DLSS which will render a more even playing field in this age of diminishing returns. They are also expanding internally and becoming better and better with consistent game releases.

Switch 2 breaks the mold seen with the usual Nintendo boom to bust cycle (even though bust is not in any way an accurate terminology for most of these examples or selling under 130 million).

Book it.
 
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It will make more money than the Switch while selling fewer systems. I would count that as a "boom" but I think that would count as a "bust" for you. I don't think there's a meaningful point to be made with such comparisons if you're just looking at a single statistic
 
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I don't really think it's at all fair to call the gba a bust to the gb boom considering one was on the market 11-12 years before its successor released and the other 3.5-4 years yet still managed more than 2/3 of the sales in a third of the time.

If Switch 2 sold 100m in 4 years but Nintendo cut it off 3 years in for another console that had full BC with Switch 2 for some reason would people really consider that a bust?
 
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Not a chance.

Switch was a test, [REDACTED] is the refinement of that idea. I think Nintendo will do just as well, if not better, due to increased first party output and third party support.
 
I actually think it will do better?

Switch was a competent machine, but itโ€™s their first attempt at the hybrid. It felt like a compromised TV experience even at launch, and for half of the generation, journalists and the like have been saying multi-platform games run on Switch, but itโ€™s the worst place to play them. Steam Deck has released and nobody says that about it, despite it also being true. Itโ€™s beloved and praised. Thereโ€™s clearly a threshold for quality and diminishing returns at play. For Switch it wasnโ€™t about being the worst place to play these titles, it was just how much worse it felt.

If the information Nate/Eurogamer/VGC has given us on Switch 2 is all true - Switch (1) level titles running at 4K, 60fps, minimal load times, able to run the Matrix demo competently with RT, and still a handheld - theyโ€™re passing that quality threshold, stepping into the realm of diminishing returns, and I think core audiences will likely see the product differently. The idea of playing a multi-platform shooter on Switch 2 could be entirely legitimized to audiences.

Anyway clearly Iโ€™m optimistic, and Iโ€™m not hiding my personal bias. Also I predict Monolithsoft is going to get their first 5 million seller now that theyโ€™re escaping the Switch resolution ghetto. Thatโ€™s no bust.
 
I think it's super premature to have this poll before we know anything concrete about the next system.

There are three reasons why Nintendo might end up with unsuccessful hardware:

1) Trying to shoehorn in a unique selling point that does not catch on with the market but is impossible to separate from the identity of the platform (3DS, Wii U)

2) Introducing exotic hardware that is difficult for developers to make games for (Nintendo 64, to a lesser extent GameCube)

3) Failing to deliver enough system-selling software (GameCube, 3DS, Wii U)

If what we've heard is true, and Nintendo is releasing a direct successor to the Switch that does not disrupt its unique selling point... So far the only one of these that I'm especially worried about is #3. They'd have a platform with a proven USP that has not yet been replicated by competitors (Steam Deck is still a portable PC, not a console), and that platform would use hardware that shouldn't be difficult for developers to get on board with.

So they'd have to seriously miss the boat on what people want from Mario, Zelda, Pokรฉmon, Animal Crossing, etc. Which, to be fair, has happened before. But there's no way to predict whether that will happen based on what we currently know. We might get a sneak peek based on how Super Mario Bros. Wonder turns out.

Basically, the system will live or die based on whether Nintendo makes games that people really want to play. Go figure.

Also, I don't really think SNES and Game Boy Advance qualify as examples to inform this discussion. SNES's biggest problem was that it had competition that was much stronger than anything NES faced, and Game Boy Advance basically crammed 80% of its predecessor's hardware sales into half the timeframe. The good examples are Nintendo 64 (complete collapse of Nintendo's market share), Nintendo 3DS (poor software sales even after the hardware rebounded), and Wii U (a complete failure all around). Otherwise we'll be stuck in the "infinite growth" fallacy, where the main thing that matters for success is growth rather than profitability.
 
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There will be statues created of the console depicting its upper body, from the shoulders or so up? I'm not sure how that actually works in this scenario, but I'm intrigued.
 
SpringwoodSlasher said:
I wish there was a third optionโ€ฆI donโ€™t think it will bust but I would be surprised if it surpassed the OG Switch. Switch had COVID, which was unprecedented, and generated a ton of revenue for Nintendo.

So I guess I will vote โ€œbustโ€, but I donโ€™t think it will be a bust at all.
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My thoughts- verbatim.

Are you psychic?

iu
 
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If Sony can release a PS5 with absolutely 0 games and still sell more than PS4, Nintendo should sell 500 million of the Switch 2 since it will have:

1. Actual games.

2. Have Nintendo's backing.

3. We love Nintendo.

4. $70 games, but this time it is ok.

5. The best value gaming subscription service in history.
 
Yavga said:
I don't see a Switch 2 do the same numbers as the og Switch as long as it is nothing more than a more powerful Switch, especially now that there is a fierce competition in handheld PC's.

Nintendo will have to convince old customers and new kids & their parents why the Switch 2 will be the next hip thing and it will need more than just amazing software to do that.

I see opportunities for Nintendo to do that, but it remains to be seen what they are going to do. I'm not expecting Nintendo to have much "new tech" this time around, technical prowess will impress many gamers but not everyone. To do better Switch 2 will have to reach new audiences.

So yeah, without much else to go on for now I definitely will say "Bust"
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Yeah this. I for one, have no desire to get a Switch 2 on the short term: The Switch has a huge library of games that I have yet to play and it's only growing at a faster rate than I can catch up and there are still confirmed megatons like Prime 4 or Silksong to come. I don't care for more resolution or framerate, so unless Switch has a really nice ace under its sleeve, just raw power isn't going to be enough to convince me. I think most of the existing consumers think this way.

It will take several big exclusives to pull me in, but what could those be? We just got a new Zelda so we won't be seeing a new one in a few years. MP4 is going to release on Switch, so an hypothetical MP5 is faaar away. I don't care for Animal Crossing, Smash or Pokรฉmon. MK8 got a new circuit pack a month ago that I still haven't touched, though a new MK9 with some big novelties would be a really tempting reason. 3D Mario? I don't know if it's the same team behind Wonder, but it makes all the sense that Nintendo may be saving it for the release of Switch 2. Astral Chain 2 or a new action title by Platinum games could be another one. I doubt that these games will be ready at release, so until Switch 2 build a library of its own I don't see myself taking the step this time.
 
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It wonโ€™t be a bust because it will have all of Ninendoโ€™s software development resources behind it. The WiiU, 3DS, N64, and Cube all had issues with having enough software to start sales momentum. The Switch was a success because it has had a flood of games throughout its life.
 
I voted "yes" but I don't think it wil be a flop. Now that we have every Nintendo games on a single platform, I don't see how it could have a huge flop like the WiiU was, for example. Now that we know that a system will get Mario games, Smash Bros, Pokรฉmon, Animal Crossing, etc. I could totally see the next Switch ending with more than 100 millions of consoles sold if the marketing is as good as it is for the Switch.
 
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If we treat any decline as a potential bust, then Switch 2 may be a bust, because Switch 1 will set an increadibly high benchmark. That said, nothing stops it from outselling or matching Switch 1, it's just harder statistically.

If we treat anything over 100m then it will be continued boom.

As long as Switch 2 is a straighforward upgrade, BC, with the right pricing , games and clear communication to customers and good release schedule management, i don't see why Nintendo won't be able to see 20+ million of these every year for the next 5-6 years.
 
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Iโ€™m gonna go on a limb and say this title is intrinsically misleading, becuase the way bust is used in business and sales, and in general terminology. Is soemthing thatโ€™s been destroyed, someone that broke free, or something that got utterly and thoroughly beaten by competition.

The only just Nintendo she had was the wii u really. It was sudden and a huge drop.

Better terminology would be decline.

And Nintendoโ€™s boom and bust cycle is also dumb.

Both the NES and SNES did well for the market positions, the snes was the first time there was more than one option so of course it declined and even then it only declined by 12 million, which ofr tod situation against a competitor for the first time was really good the NES was the entire industry it was a once in eternity thing. The N64 declined and did poorly agaisnt itโ€™s competition, then you got the GameCube which declined form there at a lessened but still bad rate. Then the wii which exploded and then the bust of the wii u.

Start, expected decline, sudden decline, steady decline, boom, bust, boom would be the pattern. which is hardly a pattern

Simplifying it is neat and all but it does not tell a full or accurate story.

(This also doesnโ€™t even involve handhelds or software)

Though I also wouldnโ€™t describe the switch as a boom, itโ€™s been a lot more steady than the wii, which litterally boomed and then fell off the face of the earth, just like an economic boom.

Switch is, to be honest itโ€™s hard to find a word to describe it for how unprecedented it is within this industry.
 
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Not a chance. The way they are positioned in the market right now is insane. Their IPs have never been more popular. You could tell the narrative turned negative around Nintendo towards the end of the Wii/DS era. People were tired of the motion controls and the family games. Families aren't a reliable source to launch a system, you need fans and these were kinda turned off by that era.

Compare that to the Switch era where Nintendo as a brand is at their strongest imo. They had a hit in theaters, games are breaking records and the only thing in conversation is how the Switch had it's time and people are ready to move to another console. The demand is there and unless they come into the market with a 600$ pricing or a new gimmick that is too silly, i doubt this will bomb in the first years.

Now the long term game is different. Switch had so much crazy elements at the macro level that no one can predict that helped it's trajectory. But i still feel their next system will probably target 80-110 millions.
 
BowserIsMyFather said:
I feel like they are about to introduce something else. T239 only tells part of the story, and it's simply not just the 'Switch 4K' some are expecting.

"One of the things we look at always is how can we surprise and delight. How can we introduce new unique ways of playing. Thatยดs always in front of our mind" - Dougy B

I mean, they could absolutely carry the Switch brand forward with more powerful innards, but would that bring them similar success in a market full of handhelds boasting increased power levels every year?

Not so sure.
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While I agree, there may be something else we don't know yet about the system, at the same time I don't think devices like Steam Deck or ROG Ally will pose any significant threat in the near future, as those are "portable PCs" not really handheld consoles. Additionally, Nintendo systems are first and foremost 1st party games systems.

One theory I have is that Nintendo may have been working on some new kind of game experiences (and VR/AR would be my first bet), but right now the Switch is simply performing so well they don't have incentives to start "new ventures", we may start to see them when the Switch-line will effectively start to decline.
 
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Bait02 said:
While I agree, there may be something else we don't know yet about the system, at the same time I don't think devices like Steam Deck or ROG Ally and the likes pose will pose any significant threat in the future as those are "portable PCs" not really handheld consoles. Additionally, Nintendo systems are first and foremost 1st party games systems.

One theory I have is that Nintendo may have been working on some new kind of game experiences (and VR/AR would be my first bet), but right now the Switch is simply performing so well they don't have incentives to start "new ventures", we may start to see them when the Switch-line will effectively start to decline.
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I'd love for the new 'Switching' layer.to be a VR/AR mode.
 
Voted yes, it will "bust". (Maybe a 20% decline, imo)

When your existing console may end up as the best selling console of all time, it's almost insane to predict that the next one will do better.

Switch had:
A entirely blue ocean market (there were no hybrid consoles).
The Covid-19 mega-boost.
One of the greatest killer apps of all time at launch.
A seven year stretch of mostly uninterrupted prosperity in the west, and lots of quantitative easing creating lots of spending / money flows.
An enormous amount of WiiU games to port to plug droughts that were essentially new to the market due to the failure of the Wii U.

You just can't expect all of that to happen again.

Just the blue ocean market thing is already starting to change somewhat as handheld PCs and Sony's streaming device show. Not real threats as of now, but a demonstration that competition will inevitably arise.

And that's all BEFORE you go into the historical patterns in the OP that suggest that their "evolution" consoles perform worse in the market than their "revolution" consoles. But I always, always prefer the evolution consoles, so I'm feeling pretty good right about now.
 
Will Switch 2 do better then the current Switch? Probably not, current Switch is going to end it's run at worst as the 3rd best selling gaming device ever after the PS2 and DS. To think any device would exceed that is foolish, especially when Switch 2 won't get the covid bump in the middle of it's life.
 
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Yavga said:
I don't see a Switch 2 do the same numbers as the og Switch as long as it is nothing more than a more powerful Switch, especially now that there is a fierce competition in handheld PC's.

Nintendo will have to convince old customers and new kids & their parents why the Switch 2 will be the next hip thing and it will need more than just amazing software to do that.

I see opportunities for Nintendo to do that, but it remains to be seen what they are going to do. I'm not expecting Nintendo to have much "new tech" this time around, technical prowess will impress many gamers but not everyone. To do better Switch 2 will have to reach new audiences.

So yeah, without much else to go on for now I definitely will say "Bust"
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"Fierce competition"

Please

Steam Deck and other portable PCs are not "fierce competition" to any console. They are niche products and have always been niche products. Steam Deck will be celebrating from the rafters if it sells Vita or WiiU numbers lifetime, that's not a device competing with the Switch successor where 100 million lifetime would be "disappointing".
 
By the threads standards, I have to lean bust. I can see a 20-25% decline as the Switch will be hard to followup and is one of the best selling consoles of all time when its all said and done.

But imo a 20-25% decline for Switch 2 still would be a success for Nintendo and I wouldnt personally call that a bust.

To put in perspective, the Switch is probaly going to end at what 140-150mil Switch sold? At a 25% "bust" decline Switch 2 is clearing over 100mil consoles sold. Idk, if I am Nintendo I would be happy with that
 
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BassForever said:
"Fierce competition"

Please

Steam Deck and other portable PCs are not "fierce competition" to any console. They are niche products and have always been niche products. Steam Deck will be celebrating from the rafters if it sells Vita or WiiU numbers lifetime, that's not a device competing with the Switch successor where 100 million lifetime would be "disappointing".
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If one were to buy a Switch as a Indie machine or a smaller games device Steam Deck becomes a competitor for its pricing alone. I think the next Switch has more competition than ever, if it wants to reach a crowd beyond the people buying a Switch for the Nintendo exclusives alone.

A very beefy Switch 2 cannot escape a comparison to other handheld devices competing for players their free time.
 
Yavga said:
If one were to buy a Switch as a Indie machine or a smaller games device Steam Deck becomes a competitor for its pricing alone. I think the next Switch has more competition than ever, if it wants to reach a crowd beyond the people buying a Switch for the Nintendo exclusives alone.

A very beefy Switch 2 cannot escape a comparison to other handheld devices competing for players their free time.
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But why don't you at all see the different target audiences of the people buying steam deck vs the typical Nintendo consumer? Do casuals buy and play Steam decks? Do families buy steam decks to their 10 year old kid as a christmas present? Steam deck is for hardcore gamers only. They are not at all the same demographic as the usual consumer and buyer of Nintendo hardware and software. We have the results already. Switch being essentially worthless in specs compared to the Steam deck will still sell 15 million units or so into its 7th year, if the Steam deck can't compete with a very weak Switch how can it compete with a Switch 2 that is essentially at the same level of performance as a Steam deck? It will lose the only upside it had against its much more popular Nintendo competitor. And the upside it enjoyed for years still gave it no chance against the weak Switch.
 
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I expect 90-110M LTD, just a slight decline caused by not being the new big thing anymore. Still healthy results

Btw handhelds pc are sub 1m sellers outside of Steam deck which is probably a 5m+ seller at best lifetime wise, they are directed more to the PC audience than the console one and are as much as a threat as gaming laptop to Switch.
 
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Yavga said:
If one were to buy a Switch as a Indie machine or a smaller games device Steam Deck becomes a competitor for its pricing alone. I think the next Switch has more competition than ever, if it wants to reach a crowd beyond the people buying a Switch for the Nintendo exclusives alone.

A very beefy Switch 2 cannot escape a comparison to other handheld devices competing for players their free time.
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Stop using the gamer (tm) bubble for your analysis. There is maybe 0.25% of Switch owners who bought the thing as only a portable indie or smaller games machine.

Just as a reminder

www.gamesindustry.biz

Omdia: Steam Deck's total console sales count to hit 3m units in 2023

Sign up for the GI Daily here to get the biggest news straight to your inbox A new Omdia report estimates that the lifeโ€ฆ
www.gamesindustry.biz www.gamesindustry.biz

So by the end of 2023, lifetime sales of the Steam Deck are expected to reach 3 million, so about 1.5 million a year. The Vita sold 4 million in it's first year and was seen as a failure.

There are levels to this, the Steam Deck and other portable pcs are a niche in this industry.
 
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It won't be a bust, but it won't sell nearly as many consoles as Switch did.

Many Switch owners will not upgrade.
 
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Yavga said:
If one were to buy a Switch as a Indie machine or a smaller games device Steam Deck becomes a competitor for its pricing alone. I think the next Switch has more competition than ever, if it wants to reach a crowd beyond the people buying a Switch for the Nintendo exclusives alone.

A very beefy Switch 2 cannot escape a comparison to other handheld devices competing for players their free time.
Click to expand...
Using a Steam Deck as a 'hybrid' device is inherently more inconvenient because it's a PC running mostly Windows games and can't auto-adjust in-game settings to tune for best performance at a specific battery life or resolution, and there is no seamless Switching capability.

Non-demanding indie games run essentially identical on Switch 1 so it becomes a question of user experience, and Switch is way more convenient. When Switch 2 releases it will remain the most seamless option and the power gap will shrink significantly.

Current home consoles are also much more convenient and provide sufficient power that gaming PCs are not really considered their 'competition'. I consider Steam Deck to be more convenient than typical desktop gaming PCs thanks to Steam OS but it is still not a true 'console', and other Windows based PC handhelds are even more jank on the frontend side. They're cool for what they are but are not competition for the Switch in the mass market, even if they are considered legitimate alternatives to a Switch in the minds of some enthusiast gamers who are willing to stomach the bit of tinkering.
 
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