Predictions Will the Switch 2 be a "bust" to Nintendo Switch's "boom"? [READ OP BEFORE VOTING]

[Hero of Hyrule]

Nintendo has had a very interesting trend of a "boom" period followed by a "bust" period. To be clear, this refers only to decline in commercial performances:

• The "boom" of the NES was followed by the "bust" of the SNES (which declined from NES by ~25%)
• The "boom" of the Game Boy was followed by the "bust" of the GBA (which declined by ~35%)
• The "boom" of the Wii was followed by the "bust" of the Wii U (which declined by, uh, 85%)
• The "boom" of the DS was followed by the "bust" of the 3DS (which declined by ~50%)

Now, there are always caveats, explanations, and reasons: the NES had an uncontested playing field, while the SNES found itself in a crowded market; the GBA had an extraordinarily short life as a primary platform, and probably would have matched or even exceeded Game Boy had it been allowed to; the 3DS found itself having to contend not just with the mobile market at its peak, but also its own poor start thanks to bone headed decisions made by Nintendo; and the Wii U... okay, well, no excuses for that one.

But the point is, circumstances always arise that seem to cause an extraordinarily successful Nintendo platform to be followed up by a successor that fails to recreate those successes in that same way. Realistically, you can actually argue this is an industry wide trend - Microsoft has consistently failed to do this. Sega consistently failed to do this back in the day. So did Atari. The only real exception to this is Sony (PS1->PS2, PS3->PS4, probably PS4->PS5), though even they had their stumbles (PS2->PS3 being legendary for how badly it was borked, and the less said about PSP->Vita, the better).

Which brings us back to Nintendo, and to the Switch. This is, without question, Nintendo's most successful system to date. It's sold over 130 million units of hardware (and will probably end with its final tally being convincingly north of that), and over a billion units of software. It's helped Nintendo win back third party support that they haven't had in decades, and led them to their period of greatest profitability ever.

In other words, it's a huge boom. Are we due a bust with the follow up? It doesn't have to be a Wii U level collapse, to be clear; as mentioned above, Nintendo's "busts" run the gamut of the whole spectrum, from successful systems that still did well, just not as well as their predecessors, to systems that were mismanaged but rallied and found a convincing audience for themselves, to systems that absolutely were en route to outperforming their predecessors until other circumstances intervened, to the Wii U. A potential Switch 2 bust could be any of those, or something totally different. Or it just might not exist.

Do you think that will happen?

 

[Estew]

Voting no purely because of:

from successful systems that still did well, just not as well as their predecessors,

I think the Switch 2 will do really well, but I don't see it replicating the success of the Switch. Would be cool to see though!

EDIT: Poll was updated to match title, I voted yes

 

[SpringwoodSlasher]

I wish there was a third option…I don’t think it will bust but I would be surprised if it surpassed the OG Switch. Switch had COVID, which was unprecedented, and generated a ton of revenue for Nintendo.

So I guess I will vote “bust”, but I don’t think it will be a bust at all.

 

[oese0]

In other words, it's a huge boom. Are we due a bust with the follow up?

I don't think the next system will be a bust, not at all actually. While I think it's gonna be a practically impossible feat to have a repeat in sales numbers, I will still gonna be confident enough to say that the next system should very well be a huge hit.

I was so excited to click on the poll that I accidentally voted for yes instead of no.

 

[Mekanos]

If the question is "will the Switch 2 outsell the Switch," then I don't think so. But that shouldn't really be seen as a failure.

Spoiler

this is an interesting topic title to post on this date

Also for the love of god stop having a different question for the poll instead of the topic

 

[Hero of Hyrule]

Voting no purely because of:

I think the Switch 2 will do really well, but I don't see it replicating the success of the Switch. Would be cool to see though!

Sorry, that's on me, the title and poll originally asked different questions. I fixed that, so if you want to change your vote now you can (your original vote was in response to the title, which was the opposite question of the poll).

 

[shoptroll]

Crud. I meant to vote “yes”. I expect there will be a decline of some amount but it won’t be catastrophic. But it really depends on the strength of the software and the level of engagement they can get with the mainstream audience like the NES, Game Boy, DS, and Wii had.

 

[Skittzo]

I feel like one of the reasons the Switch has lasted so long is that they won't even risk having a "boom" part of the cycle anymore. They're just going to have their consoles last as long as it takes to start to approach saturation.

And when you can only get Nintendo games on these consoles I think they'll eventually all do well enough.

 

[Estew]

Sorry, that's on me, the title and poll originally asked different questions. I fixed that, so if you want to change your vote now you can (your original vote was in response to the title, which was the opposite question of the poll).

Ohh, I see! Updated the vote now, thank you!

 

[AngryAlchemist]

If the SNES is considered a "bust" period, then maybe? The Switch will probably end up at around 145-160 million units sold, and a 25% decline would still make a Switch 2 one of the most successful consoles of all time. I don't entirely agree with your definition that the SNES is a successor that "fails to recreate those successes in that same way", because while the SNES didn't sell as much as the NES, it was an example of stablization of the market + the first big competitor to Nintendo.

So if the SNES is a bust, then the question you're really asking seems to be whether the Switch 2 will sell as well if not more than the Switch. And in that case I can see it being a "bust", but that seems unreasonable given the astronomical heights the Switch has reached. I don't think there's any reason that if Nintendo plays their cards right, the Switch 2 won't pass 120m, basically.

 

[BlueKing]

Isn't this board bad enough with the bad attitudes and fighting without adding this oil to the fire?

 

[Aostia82]

In terms of at least slight decline of LT hardware sales, yes it will be a "bust"

Still, I see it doing pretty well (if it IS a Switch 2 for real)

 

[AngryAlchemist]

If the question is "will the Switch 2 outsell the Switch," then I don't think so. But that shouldn't really be seen as a failure.

Spoiler

this is an interesting topic title to post on this date

Also for the love of god stop having a different question for the poll instead of the topic

Wait, why is it an interesting topic title?

 

[Skittzo]

Honestly I don't even see a decline in sales as an inevitability. I doubt it will sell as rapidly as the Switch but I can see it being on the market a good deal longer, considering how future proofed this machine seems to be, plus the fact that DLSS continues to get new extremely powerful features via simple software updates.

 

[carbvan]

Switch 2 won't hit 120 million units. I'm guessing it taps out at 80m. Not bad, but not as huge of a success. The console will no doubt be more expensive so the casual audience will be lost a bit.

 

[Hero of Hyrule]

Also for the love of god stop having a different question for the poll instead of the topic

Yeah, sorry, I fixed it lol

Crud. I meant to vote “yes”. I expect there will be a decline of some amount but it won’t be catastrophic. But it really depends on the strength of the software and the level of engagement they can get with the mainstream audience like the NES, Game Boy, DS, and Wii had.

I've allowed the option to change votes, since I messed up originally with the question

Isn't this board bad enough with the bad attitudes and fighting without adding this oil to the fire?

Huh?

If the SNES is considered a "bust" period, then maybe? The Switch will probably end up at around 145-160 million units sold, and a 25% decline would still make a Switch 2 one of the most successful consoles of all time. I don't entirely agree with your definition that the SNES is a successor that "fails to recreate those successes in that same way", because while the SNES didn't sell as much as the NES, it was an example of stablization of the market + the first big competitor to Nintendo.

So if the SNES is a bust, then the question you're really asking seems to be whether the Switch 2 will sell as well if not more than the Switch. And in that case I can see it being a "bust", but that seems unreasonable given the astronomical heights the Switch has reached. I don't think there's any reason that if Nintendo plays their cards right, the Switch 2 won't pass 120m, basically.

That's basically what this is coming down to, yeah - will Switch 2 outsell the original Switch? Right now I am tempted to say no, it will not, but I would also have said "no" in response to a lot of questions about Switch 1's successes (and I was one of the more optimistic people about it back in the day!), so I find it an interesting topic for discussion, especially given the whole range of possibilities that that would cover

 

[Mekanos]

Wait, why is it an interesting topic title?

You remember the title of the second Lord Of The Rings book? And then something else that went "boom."

 

[Joy-Boy]

Now, there are always caveats, explanations, and reasons: the NES had an uncontested playing field, while the SNES found itself in a crowded market; the GBA had an extraordinarily short life as a primary platform, and probably would have matched or even exceeded Game Boy had it been allowed to; the 3DS found itself having to contend not just with the mobile market at its peak, but also its own poor start thanks to bone headed decisions made by Nintendo; and the Wii U... okay, well, no excuses for that one.

But the point is, circumstances always arise that seem to cause an extraordinarily successful Nintendo platform to be followed up by a successor that fails to recreate those successes in that same way. Realistically, you can actually argue this is an industry wide trend - Microsoft has consistently failed to do this. Sega consistently failed to do this back in the day. So did Atari. The only real exception to this is Sony (PS1->PS2, PS3->PS4, probably PS4->PS5), though even they had their stumbles (PS2->PS3 being legendary for how badly it was borked, and the less said about PSP->Vita, the better).

The problem with analyzing patterns like this is that it doesnt take into account that Nintendo are people, and people learn from their mistakes.
Yes, circumstances have led to certian consoles underperforming, but never for the same reasons twice. Like nearly every mistake the Wii U made, from marketing to branding to launch titles were corrected when the Switch launched.

Maybe they'll make new mistakes in the future, but that's no more or less likley than them knocking it out of the park.

 

[Skittzo]

You remember the title of the second Lord Of The Rings book? And then something else that went "boom."

Ehhhhh

Not sure if I'd consider the word "boom" to be taboo in any way today.

 

[GenOneCam]

The Switch is extremely popular, its successor will not do as well in overall sales for a number of reasons. It has had a very long shelf life due to pandemic delays, there was also a huge gaming boom due to the pandemic. I also believe that many people are still very happy with their Switches and will not be so quick to jump to Switch 2. Because of that I think we will see a cross gen life of the Switch that lasts at least a few years into Switch 2's life and continue to drive sales. Not to mention that there is going to be a lot more competition in that space in the years to come, I doubt any of them will outsell Nintendo but a more crowded market is going to affect Nintendo's ability to sell consoles.

 

[BowserIsMyFather]

I feel like they are about to introduce something else. T239 only tells part of the story, and it's simply not just the 'Switch 4K' some are expecting.

"One of the things we look at always is how can we surprise and delight. How can we introduce new unique ways of playing. That´s always in front of our mind" - Dougy B

I mean, they could absolutely carry the Switch brand forward with more powerful innards, but would that bring them similar success in a market full of handhelds boasting increased power levels every year?

Not so sure.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

That's basically what this is coming down to, yeah - will Switch 2 outsell the original Switch? Right now I am tempted to say no, it will not, but I would also have said "no" in response to a lot of questions about Switch 1's successes (and I was one of the more optimistic people about it back in the day!), so I find it an interesting topic for discussion, especially given the whole range of possibilities that that would cover

It is an interesting discussion, and I don't mind the liberal use of the word "bust" either lol. Was just making a point I think the SNES was still pretty successful, as were some of the other consoles, it's decline is notably lower.

I think the big factor that would be hard to replicate for the Switch 2 is the COVID effect, the Switch also essentially had three lives between it's first few years, the COVID years, and the decent boost Zelda + Pikmin has given it (especially in Japan).

 

[Hero of Hyrule]

The problem with analyzing patterns like this is that it doesnt take into account that Nintendo are people, and people learn from their mistakes.
Yes, circumstances have led to certian consoles underperforming, but never for the same reasons twice. Like nearly every mistake the Wii U made, from marketing to branding to launch titles were corrected when the Switch launched.

Maybe they'll make new mistakes in the future, but that's no more or less likley than them knocking it out of the park.

That's actually the very point I am trying to make, it's never the same set of mistakes across these boom/busts, but a different set of circumstances every single time that ends up hamstringing the performance of their follow ups a little. As of right now, Nintendo is better positioned going into the launch of a new system than they ever have been. The question now is, will they (or something else) intervene to hold the Switch 2 back a little regardless? Maybe the Switch itself was the beneficiary of certain circumstances that the Switch 2 will not have (such as the aforementioned COVID-19 sales gains)?

 

[Deleted member 3433]

No. Could easily become the best-selling platform of all-time. Yes, I'm incredibly optimistic. Sue me.

 

[E.Gadd]

Nah, this whole situation is gonna end up being Nintendo's own version of the Ps1 to Ps2. Just watch.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

You remember the title of the second Lord Of The Rings book? And then something else that went "boom."

 

[Hero of Hyrule]

It is an interesting discussion, and I don't mind the liberal use of the word "bust" either lol. Was just making a point I think the SNES was still pretty successful, as were some of the other consoles, it's decline is notably lower.

I think the big factor that would be hard to replicate for the Switch 2 is the COVID effect, the Switch also essentially had three lives between it's first few years, the COVID years, and the decent boost Zelda + Pikmin has given it (especially in Japan).

I think an NES->SNES situation is close to what I expect (I think the Switch 1 will end somewhere between 145-155 million units, i think the Switch 2 will be 125-135 million units). Of course, this is just based on my current guesses, if the Switch 2 ends up defying expectations and market trends as extraordinarily as the first Switch did, then all bets are off, and we could end up with that PS1->PS2 transition that @E.Gadd and @Rhythm Shift are expecting

 

[Weebos]

I don't see it matching the original Switch, especially if it releases at a higher price point (as expected).

I think all of the current consoles will be hard to beat by their successors, unless folks are forced to stay inside again with another flood of stimulus cash.

 

[Ripfeld89]

It'll be a bust by Switch standards but nothing near the degree of a "failed" console or be worth cutting its life short. People will generally be aware of it and look on it favorably, but not as many will consider it worth purchasing right away mostly due to economic factors.

 

[Bait02]

I'm expecting next gen Switch not to be quite comparable...

for one because I think their next gen lifespan will be even longer, expecially if they manage to replicate a similar degree of success, and form the rumors it seems they aren't being conservative with the hardware which further suggests this to me.

In addition I think they will eventually introduce new formats/form factors further down the line.

In the end, presuming a similar degree of success, I would expect a situation more similar to GB vs GBA, only chronologically inverted.

Though, in the end it will mostly depend on 1st party titles and thier appeal.

 

[DeuceGamer]

With all franchises on a single system and a hybrid concept, I feel like the floor of Nintendo systems moving forward should be around ~70m unless something goes terribly wrong with the technology or pricing.

 

[Hero of Hyrule]

With all franchises on a single system and a hybrid concept, I feel like the floor of Nintendo systems moving forward should be around ~70m unless something goes terribly wrong with the technology or pricing.

Agreed. The absolute minimum hardware Nintendo has sold in any generation was the Wii U/3DS one, where they sold 85 million units. Accounting for double dipping, I think 75-80 million should be the bare minimum going forward.

 

[SuperCharlie78]

Switch 2 could get the likes of Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Call of Duty, GTA, all on the same system.

Potentially it could outsell the Switch by reaching 200 millions units sales.

 

[Skittzo]

Yeah I think it's impossible to answer this without knowing what their long term roadmap is, because the length of support is probably going to be the biggest factor.

 

[Brofield]

I'm optimistic, in the sense that Nintendo themselves have at least publicly acknowledged how important it is to have a successful console transition. We know it, they know it, we know they know it, everyone's watching them parallel park and they are absolutely taking their time making sure it's a one and done success.

 

[Hero of Hyrule]

Yeah I think it's impossible to answer this without knowing what their long term roadmap is, because the length of support is probably going to be the biggest factor.

Oh 100%, we are making guesses about a device that we don't know anything about really, with the uncertainty further compounded by us being in uncharted and unprecedented territory for Nintendo platforms here. Should be fun either way!

I'm optimistic, in the sense that Nintendo themselves have at least publicly acknowledged how important it is to have a successful console transition. We know it, they know it, we know they know it, everyone's watching them parallel park and they are absolutely taking their time making sure it's a one and done success.

Yeah, i hope Nintendo is able to learn the right lessons and, equally importantly, able to execute on their learnings properly as well.

 

[Mekanos]

Ehhhhh

Not sure if I'd consider the word "boom" to be taboo in any way today.

It's not

But it's a funny juxtaposition

Anyway, I could see something similar to the GBA for the Switch 2; from what I remember in its early years it had a similar path to the original Game Boy, but the DS kneecapped all of its momentum. That wouldn't happen with Switch 2, but I still wonder how much Switch 1 is lightning in a bottle.

 

[Apenknul]

As of now, where we only hear things of specific hardware details, I can not have an opinion. Will it sell less than OG Switch, perhaps. But it might have new and cool features that will do the trick to make it sell well. I'm sure the Switch 2 is not only a Switch that runs games better, I'm sure Nintendo has some cards in their sleeves of what gimmicks it can do in which the OG Switch can't.

Also, funny to me enough, when you look at NES -> SNES, GB -> GBA, DS -> 3DS, Wii -> Wii U, all the successors have the predecessors name in them, but a addition to it. The only time this isn't the case is N64 -> Gamecube. I have no clue of what's going on between those gen's, but in the case of the Switch -> Switch 2, I have this feeling Nintendo won't call this a ''Switch 2 (or other addition)'' but call it completely different, so people start to think it's something different but feels familliar.

As of now, where we aren't certain of many things, but only the fact that'll come soon, I can't vote the poll. It wouldn't be fair to me, as I have no clue of what the new system will do, besides more power.

 

[Skittzo]

It's not

But it's a funny juxtaposition

Anyway, I could see something similar to the GBA for the Switch 2; from what I remember in its early years it had a similar path to the original Game Boy, but the DS kneecapped all of its momentum. That wouldn't happen with Switch 2, but I still wonder how much Switch 1 is lightning in a bottle.

I don't think Switch 1 ever was lightning in a bottle. It resonated with the core gaming audience first and foremost, and that was due to the games.

If you have a Switch 2 that plays those games but better, then also all their new games PLUS all the best PS4/XB1 games that weren't there before and any new gen ports you might get, that's an exciting proposition for those same fans that bought the Switch year 1 or 2.

 

[VorpalNonsense]

I dont expect SUCC 2 to do as well as Switch, so in that sense, sure.
But as long as Nintendo continues to embrace the strengths of the Switch in their next console, and maintain backwards compatibility, I think the gravy train will keep on rolling forward. Just perhaps not as enthusiastically, because people won't be as hungry as they were after the struggle that was the WiiU era. People are happy with their Switches and the transition period may naturally be less urgent. But as long as they hit the right notes, should perform fine.

 

[OctoSplattack]

"Bust" is a strong word, but I do think it may end up selling less when everything is said and done seven years from now. Not by a huge amount, though.

 

[Pennington]

Yes #trusttheprocess

 

[Serif]

Boom Boom Boom, followed by Boom

Believe.

 

[Armoured_Bear]

Noted yes as I can see it being a great success but not quite Switch levels.
In reality, I have no idea.

 

[ImpendingFoil]

Voted Yes. I don’t think it’s going to be anywhere near a Wii to Wii U decline but I don’t see the numbers exceeding the Switch. The Switch benefited a lot from the pandemic and I’m really hoping we as a society don’t have to go through anything like that again any time soon.

Much like any Nintendo system though it is going to offer great new games and experiences and I’m excited for what the future brings.

 

[Danny]

Some things the Switch 2 has that sets it apart from the Wii U.

Specs: The Wii U had notoriously weak specs even on release date. The Switch 2 has not only very good specs but stuff like DLSS that will instantly show a massive improvement over Switch. So unlike Wii to Wii U this won't be a situation where people will even remotely be able to compare the graphics of the newer console with the graphics of the older console.

Hybrid formfactor: Nintendo has a sketchy record of home console sales since the N64 era, but on the flipside their handheld systems have all been successes to varying degrees. People have always loved to play Nintendo games in a handheld mode, and handheld systems in the end is what has saved Nintendo from having to leave the console market all together.

Third party support and a unified Nintendo development team: The Switch 2 will have a lot of third party support, due to the popularity of the Switch but also by the big next gen jump of the Switch 2, which will make it much easier to port over games to the Switch 2.

Momentum: When the Wii U was released the previous console Wii had a dead momentum, its peak popularity had by then been in massive decline for years, so when the Wii U launched it had almost no momentum at all, which has been a common problem for Nintendo home console transitions over the years. Switch 2 on the other hand will launch with a huge momentum of releasing shortly after about 15 million unit sales of Switch in the previous fiscal year. That in turn with the Nintendo account system transfering to the next system and BC hopefully in the mix should make it easier for the Switch 2 to ride on that momentum forwards for a good launch year. The Switch has an incredible active user base still, the Wii did not have an active base that were still buying games by the millions every quarter when the Wii U was released. The Wii user base had already long since moved on from the console and were not in the slightest thinking about jumping over to the Wii U.

 

[Starphanluke]

Voted Yes because I think it will not match Switch numbers. I think it will still be a success, though, so it's a bit of a weird way to phrase the question.

 

[Skittzo]

Boom Boom Boom, followed by Boom

Believe.

See, now this post @Mekanos may be a bit closer to uh... being interesting on this day.

 

[Machrider]

... maybe.

It's hard to say because I think Nintendo's fanbase could be on the way up in the next 5-10 years, aside from just natural growth, things like the Mario movie and a rumored live action Zelda movie, obviously there will be other Mario movies and stuff maybe building towards a Smash film ... I think their brand is going to become much bigger than just video games (they themselves are touting that too, see Doug Bowser's recent comments).

 

[New Donker]

I think between the diminishing returns on graphics and there still being a ton of games releasing on ps4/Xbox1, a Switch successor has a real chance of being more successful than the Switch, especially if Nintendo keeps releasing bangers and 3rd parties hop on in higher numbers