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Discussion Will oil prices accelerate the adoption rate of electric cars?

Kenka

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that oil prices, which have risen by two-thirds this year to a peak of $77 a barrel, could rise even more, causing market volatility, unless major oil producers produce more barrels.

U.S. drivers are now facing record-breaking high prices to fill up their tanks owing to increased oil market prices. While pricing at these levels may enhance the electrification of the transportation sector and contribute to the advancement of energy transitions. As a result, the lower cost of operating an electric vehicle may inspire more people to make the changeover sooner than expected, bolstering efforts to reduce transportation-related emissions.

If prices continue to rise in the coming years, regulators, manufacturers, and consumers are likely to shift to all-electric vehicles far more quickly, leading to a permanent loss of oil usage.
In Western Europe, the price hike has been absolutely brutal. I now have to pay 40% more than March last year for each time I visit the station. If this goes on for a longer time, I assume that people will flock to EVs, worsening the availability of rare materials and (of course) chips. Waiting lists for cars but also electronics will potentially get way longer.

What's your take on this FB?
 
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...

Sadly, every time something happens, a discussion about A and B comes up, and often times, as we have found out: No.

It should absolutely, for the record. We just know the answer...
 
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I was already keen on an electric car and now even more so. Assuming others feel the same, seems very likely.

But with that in mind, the oil producers and the groups that control oil prices will probably want to lower them before they derail their gravy train.
 
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I was actually listening to a story on NPR about this. With or without the current oil prices, auto manufacturers are betting big on an electric future, and the current situation is likely going to help sell it. But these things happen slowly and this is just one piece of the puzzle.
 
It will, however there are a lot of vested interests in stopping that happening. The government is way more likely to kill the environment by expanding fracking and buying in oil/gas from everywhere it can to keep prices down and save face than invest in subsidies and infrastructure to move people over more quickly
 
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It might, but I'm definitely in agreement that the adoption rate will be the highest among those who are already financially capable of buying a new vehicle short-term.

There's also the issue that EVs don't really solve other issues with car-centric societies (they're environmentally unfriendly beyond emissions and also highly ableist, ageist, classist and (at least in some places) potentially racist) and that moving over to well-maintained local and long-distance public transport along with walkability/cyclability will be a much, much better solution than just forcing people to switch to EVs.
 
EVs are still way too expensive in my country. We need massive productions worldwide so price can go down in small markets like my country.
 
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It might, but I'm definitely in agreement that the adoption rate will be the highest among those who are already financially capable of buying a new vehicle short-term.

There's also the issue that EVs don't really solve other issues with car-centric societies (they're environmentally unfriendly beyond emissions and also highly ableist, ageist, classist and (at least in some places) potentially racist) and that moving over to well-maintained local and long-distance public transport along with walkability/cyclability will be a much, much better solution than just forcing people to switch to EVs.
I 100% agree with the bolded part. Actually, I am in favor of moving private transportation entirely on rails (high speed or not) to solve the environmental issues linked to the use of asphalt. However, I am also interested in what you said before. What makes you say the electric cars are excluding parts of society? Is it an echo to what other posters said about the price of these vehicles? Or is it something more.
 
I 100% agree with the bolded part. Actually, I am in favor of moving private transportation entirely on rails (high speed or not) to solve the environmental issues linked to the use of asphalt. However, I am also interested in what you said before. What makes you say the electric cars are excluding parts of society? Is it an echo to what other posters said about the price of these vehicles? Or is it something more.
Charging stations. It’s easy to install a home charger, but that means you own a home which skews to a certain demo.

That being said I think all of this can and will be solved. I just don’t think it can be solved over night regardless of gas pricing. We just need cheaper and more available everything.
 
Charging stations. It’s easy to install a home charger, but that means you own a home which skews to a certain demo.
This, and another issue with some countries is the subsidising of EVs. People who are early in purchasing an EV can get some money for it, which results in a cheaper car. The problem is that this is only a temporary subsidy. Which means the early adopters will profit of this. This results in rich people being rewarded and the poor/less-rich people are punished. They can't afford an EV without saving, even with a subsidy, but when all rich people are done profiting from the subsidy, the poor is left with nothing.

(I'm using the words subsidy and subsidising, but I don't know if it's the correct word lol. Anyway, I mean that the government helps with the purchase of an EV in some countries)

I know we can't afford an EV. We need cars to be around €10.000 to be affordable.
 
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In Europe they are going to be cheaper soon (in some places like Norway they already are) due to taxes and Euro 7 legislation (new legislation which is really restrictive emission wise) than combustion cars , so they will start dominating new cars sales soon but in the case of general car usage they still need another 15-20 years to be more prevalent in the used market where more people can afford them.
Outside Europe is a different situation and I imagine it will take even more time for electric cars to be prevelent even if manufactures have said they still stop producing new models of combustion cars between 2025-2030 (old models will keep being produced for a while still though)
 
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Charging stations. It’s easy to install a home charger, but that means you own a home which skews to a certain demo.

That being said I think all of this can and will be solved. I just don’t think it can be solved over night regardless of gas pricing. We just need cheaper and more available everything.

Chargers are also completely infeasible for anyone who live in somewhere like Dresden, Germany where so much of the housing is in tower blocks. What, are people going to start dropping cables out of their 10th floor window to charge their cars?
 
However, I am also interested in what you said before. What makes you say the electric cars are excluding parts of society? Is it an echo to what other posters said about the price of these vehicles? Or is it something more.
Oh there's definitely more.

Before that, I should a) correct you - I wrote "car-centric societies" (or you could call them "car-dependent", po-tay-to, po-tah-to). Some of these problems already do exist to a large degree in areas where the car is the only mode of transport by design and would hardly go away should we switch from ICEs to EVs, or other concepts like hydrogen cells. That is to say, we would likely see a reduction in both CO2 emissions as well as noise pollution - something research has linked to being a contributor to high stress levels.

And b), I'd like to apologize in advance for some of my later points - I'm German, white and (mostly) able-bodied, so if I'm putting something out there that's either far-fetched or false, feel free to correct me.

Car-dependent societies are in so far riddled with issues in that they exclude people by age - this mainly applies to children who legally cannot drive, but it also affects the elderly who may lose abilities such as spatial perception (saw this in my grandmother, she gave up on long-distance driving about a decade ago because of that) and have lower reaction times, leading to an increase in accidents.

They exclude people with disabilities - that is not to say that we needn't do a whole lot more for people with disabilities, including making the use of public transportation and spaces more friendly for them, but in many ways, these people can still be dependent on someone to drive them to appointments. Now, you CAN fit a car to be driven by someone with disabilities - mainly paraplegics - but that can be extremely costly and may require the absence of the car for a long time.

Which brings us to the other issue - cost. Keeping a car is costly (apart from the act of buying it) and while no concise studies on the subject have been made, I've seen people mentioning that not owning a private car can raise the amount of money they have available for other things. I know that's probably not super important, but, uh... idk, wouldn't it be swell if you could use the money you waste on your car to just go to the office for something nice, or even just not worrying about food or rent?

The point about racism is something I've not seen elsewhere but the US, but I think it's important to point out that for a lot of modern car infrastructure, neighborhoods mainly populated by people of color were torn down or split in two because rich white people didn't want the Interstate going through their backyard.

There's a plethora of other issues car dependency brings with it - inefficient and expensive infrastructure due to planning are just one - but overall I think my point has been made. And I don't think we should completely get rid of cars either, there's plenty of use for them in business and service and I think car sharing services could fill the need for a privately owned motor vehicle, should the need arise. I think EVs are useful, but overall, I think they're more of a stop-gap to a society that is less dependent on cars.
 
At least where I live, unless you can charge at home and/or your workplace, you are pretty much shit out of luck. The infrastructure just isn't there.

Add to that the high cost of EV's, despite government subsidies, and… Yeah, good luck with that.
 
Quoted by: VHS
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Oh there's definitely more.

Before that, I should a) correct you - I wrote "car-centric societies" (or you could call them "car-dependent", po-tay-to, po-tah-to). Some of these problems already do exist to a large degree in areas where the car is the only mode of transport by design and would hardly go away should we switch from ICEs to EVs, or other concepts like hydrogen cells. That is to say, we would likely see a reduction in both CO2 emissions as well as noise pollution - something research has linked to being a contributor to high stress levels.

And b), I'd like to apologize in advance for some of my later points - I'm German, white and (mostly) able-bodied, so if I'm putting something out there that's either far-fetched or false, feel free to correct me.

Car-dependent societies are in so far riddled with issues in that they exclude people by age - this mainly applies to children who legally cannot drive, but it also affects the elderly who may lose abilities such as spatial perception (saw this in my grandmother, she gave up on long-distance driving about a decade ago because of that) and have lower reaction times, leading to an increase in accidents.

They exclude people with disabilities - that is not to say that we needn't do a whole lot more for people with disabilities, including making the use of public transportation and spaces more friendly for them, but in many ways, these people can still be dependent on someone to drive them to appointments. Now, you CAN fit a car to be driven by someone with disabilities - mainly paraplegics - but that can be extremely costly and may require the absence of the car for a long time.

Which brings us to the other issue - cost. Keeping a car is costly (apart from the act of buying it) and while no concise studies on the subject have been made, I've seen people mentioning that not owning a private car can raise the amount of money they have available for other things. I know that's probably not super important, but, uh... idk, wouldn't it be swell if you could use the money you waste on your car to just go to the office for something nice, or even just not worrying about food or rent?

The point about racism is something I've not seen elsewhere but the US, but I think it's important to point out that for a lot of modern car infrastructure, neighborhoods mainly populated by people of color were torn down or split in two because rich white people didn't want the Interstate going through their backyard.

There's a plethora of other issues car dependency brings with it - inefficient and expensive infrastructure due to planning are just one - but overall I think my point has been made. And I don't think we should completely get rid of cars either, there's plenty of use for them in business and service and I think car sharing services could fill the need for a privately owned motor vehicle, should the need arise. I think EVs are useful, but overall, I think they're more of a stop-gap to a society that is less dependent on cars.
I thank you for being so thoughtful about the subject. I can definitely agree with each point you raised. It is understandable going through each argument that the oil prices by themselves will not be the major factor in changing buying habits/obligations. There must be more coming in on a infrastructure level.

The 'dependance' to cars is scary. Not only because many households will be forced to shelling out more money for simply driving around but also because the whole supply of oil is fragile; many other crises could happen that can easily wipe away families savings. We now have a chip crisis and an oil crisis. Soon, we will have a loan crisis. When factored in, these events can precipitate large portions of the population in poverty - and yes - inability to be mobile. I don't want to witness that.

Your last points have given me pause to think. The 'backyard' argument is sensible and is yet another sign that the segregation was ostensibly a way to corner vast parts of the population in less desirable places. I have to check other parameters as well such as the presence (or absence) of parks, the proximity to hospitals and universities and the distance to public transportation stations to see if there is an imbalance at these levels too. The topic is extremely interesting to me because segregation is (imo) a factor that slow societies down as a whole. And we need to be reactive to tackle our current challlenges.

In Switzerland, we have had a policy to mix every group of people together. One of our richest villages has actually a refugee shelter in it. And any refugee in general has the ability to roam freely for as long as he/she wants and perform any kind of activity they deem safe for themselves. Our model, I think, is successful since we have none of the 'integration' (I put this word in speech marks deliberately) issues that we see in our bigger neighbouring countries. Our first and second generation refugees are highly skilled, proficient in their domain just like the Swiss, and rapidly gain the awareness to vote on crucial domestic and foreign policy issues. And I think we have altogether done a good job given how consistently successful we have been in the last 40 years.

I am going slightly off-topic but yeah, I believe segregation that is either chosen or dictated by infrastructure is a brand on societies. The road infrastructure should help mix populations and ideas, not keep them apart.

Which brings us back to the original topic - but with a slight twist: can the electrification of mobilty play a role in the societal issues we are having now? Is it the opportunity we need?
 
No doubt, I have a 2021 Bolt at the moment but have been waiting on a buyback on it for months. Finally got the call yesterday, placed my order for a Tesla Model 3. The price went up $1K overnight, and my shipping time keeps getting shuffled around. The thirst is real.

I looked at other brands too, the Ford Mach-e has a 28+ week delay time for example. There are no KIA EV6 around me to test drive. etc

At least where I live, unless you can charge at home and/or your workplace, you are pretty much shit out of luck. The infrastructure just isn't there.

Add to that the high cost of EV's, despite government subsidies, and… Yeah, good luck with that.
Is this anecdotal, or you have an EV? Just curious, I find people have similar thoughts but when they look at plugshare for their areas they are often surprised how many chargers are hidden around. Not saying that's you just curious
 
Which brings us back to the original topic - but with a slight twist: can the electrification of mobilty play a role in the societal issues we are having now? Is it the opportunity we need?
Yes. I think we're at a point where I think it could be feasible to reorganize society away from fossil fuels and hyperindividualized transportation to electricity - which can be produced with little to no pollution of any kind - and more sustainable, as well as inclusive ways of living.
 
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No doubt, I have a 2021 Bolt at the moment but have been waiting on a buyback on it for months. Finally got the call yesterday, placed my order for a Tesla Model 3. The price went up $1K overnight, and my shipping time keeps getting shuffled around. The thirst is real.

I looked at other brands too, the Ford Mach-e has a 28+ week delay time for example. There are no KIA EV6 around me to test drive. etc


Is this anecdotal, or you have an EV? Just curious, I find people have similar thoughts but when they look at plugshare for their areas they are often surprised how many chargers are hidden around. Not saying that's you just curious
I do not have one myself, but I know people who do, including in my family, and they all say the same thing. They either have an EV because they can charge at home/their workplace, or because they got it for free as a company car.

I should add that I am talking about a very rural area that does not even have convenient public transport (1 bus line that is specifically tailored to fit the school schedule, and thus largely inconvenient for everyone else, especially over school breaks where they cut down on their schedule even more), so with the lack of the most basic infrastructure it shouldn't be too surprising that charging stations aren't much of a thing here either.

From what I can gather, there is a grand total of 9 charging stations in the nearest city.
 
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If anything, it would just drive markups on crossover hybrids even higher to get the SUV look with better gas mileage in a big game of fuck you got mine.
 
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I think it would accelerate the adoption of electric cars and other electric vehicles i.e. buses gradually. Like others have said the cost is high now, but it's only a matter of how long before it's affordable to everyone. The snowball effect will apply to electric vehicle (EV) adoption, when more people/organizations know of others that have electric vehicles they are more likely to get one themselves.

However, I'm not entirely sure if the electric grid itself will be able to handle the demand or if electricity rates will go up because of this demand. I know a lot of governments are aiming towards certain target dates where a certain percentage of vehicles on the roads need to be hybrid/electric, but I hear almost nothing about increasing electricity generation which we will definitely need. Especially since, let's be honest, to the average person the biggest advantage to an EV is fuel affordability and not the environment. In the worse case scenario, if electricity rates were to rise due to the increase in EVs not only would it look less attractive but yeah lots of people would be pissed.
 
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I don't have money to pay for gas and you think I have money to buy a new car?
Yeah, this is the biggest problem with the messaging around electric cars, as seen with Pete Buttigieg's recent step in it. A mass transition will be impossible because so long as there's a profit motive, these cars will be incredibly expensive. I would love nothing more than to go electric. The infrastructure just isn't here.

Not to mention the chip shortage.
 
No. I would like an electric vehicle. However, they are expensive. And where would I charge it? Very few homes in my city have garage parking, as they are brownstones, row homes, brick colonial buildings. So it is all street parking.
 
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If people are struggling to afford gas, I don't know where anyone thinks they're gonna get the money for an EV
 
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Not until economy of scale catches up to any demand for electric cars, both in charging networks and production of cars. Unfortunate but a reality.

It took the model T to make cars affordable to the even middle class. First cars appeared in the late 1880s, the model t appeared in 1908.....
 
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