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Discussion What video game IP besides Mario could make for a billion dollar movie?

Gartooth

Gartooth

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Mario's record breaking opening weekend combined with the strong holds projected in its 2nd weekend is making its run to over $1 billion at the global box office a complete certainty at this point.

My question is what other video game IP, if there are any, have the potential of also being a billion dollar movie at the box office?
 
Besides Mario, its difficult to say. I think on the brink of mario's hype i think a DK film could do rather well but i dont think 1 billion teritory.

Neither Zelda would too.

Pokemon is the most likely one but after Detective Pikachu failed to clean 450 million i have my doubts if it would reach 1 bill.

And the other "large" ips either wouldn't do 1 bill too (like splatoon) or arent suited to the big screen at all (such as animal crossing)

Maybe if nintendo keeps a high standard of quality that could make IPS like DK to surpass 1 bill in the future, but for now i think only mario is likely to do so.

I think its wrong to say that a film needs to surpass 1 billion to be a success too.
 
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On its first go just through brand power? Maybe Minecraft if they hadn’t gone live action. Other than that, it would need to be an amazing film in its own right. I don’t think there are any guarantees.
 
WestEgg said:
On its first go just through brand power? Maybe Minecraft if they hadn’t gone live action. Other than that, it would need to be an amazing film in its own right. I don’t think there are any guarantees.
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Kingdom Hearts. Adapt game 1. The nostalgia of revisiting worlds from the previous Disney Animation movies alone would be able to draw a lot of nostalgia. Plus, Mickey, Donald and Goofy in a movie. Come on.
 
Mario is generational in a way that few franchises, even those in gaming that are of a similar age, are. My showing had kids, people my age (late 20s) and people in their 50s all in one showing.

It's why I don't think Minecraft would make it - though it'd have a fighter's chance. I would have said Pokemon, but with Detective Pikachu I think it's clear that it'd have to be a specific sort of film to make the most of that built in audience.
 
Minecraft, GTA, Animal Crossing and an actual Pokemon movie.
 
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JR436 said:
Mario is generational in a way that few franchises, even those in gaming that are of a similar age, are. My showing had kids, people my age (late 20s) and people in their 50s all in one showing.

It's why I don't think Minecraft would make it - though it'd have a fighter's chance. I would have said Pokemon, but with Detective Pikachu I think it's clear that it'd have to be a specific sort of film to make the most of that built in audience.
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I feel similarly. It has to be an IP that can't just appeal to kids alone. Mario has been going on consistently for 40 years so you had every age demographic come out to see it because so many people have played a Mario game at one point in their life.
 
entut1 said:
Kingdom Hearts. Adapt game 1. The nostalgia of revisiting worlds from the previous Disney Animation movies alone would be able to draw a lot of nostalgia. Plus, Mickey, Donald and Goofy in a movie. Come on.
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Kingdom Hearts would be a nightmare to adapt into film. If they wanted to do it Justice, they would adapt Disney segments in the style of the source material, but that would be too expensive and resource intensive, so we’d get Ralph Breaks the Internet style Disney character portrayals. And that’s not even getting into trying to adapt the plot into a two hour window in a satisfying way. They’d have to move from set piece to set piece faster than Mario did, which would choke time for character development that the fans will be looking for. I think Kingdom Hearts would almost certainly need a longer form adaptation like a series or anime to be in anyway satisfying.
 
Yeah, Pokemon is the only other one I could see maybe happening if they make one more traditionally like the games and anime. But it's tough to compare to the 40+ years of nostalgia for Mario and how omnipresent it is as a brand. I teach kids and almost all of them know Mario, many of them from their parents who also grew up on the games.

The Mario movie is playing less like a traditional family film and more of a must-see event like Avengers or Star Wars. You really need the older demo for that.
 
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Pikmin

First movie that can make 1 Pikmillion at the box office

Also, shouldn't this thread be in a The Roost?
 
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Gartooth said:
I feel similarly. It has to be an IP that can't just appeal to kids alone. Mario has been going on consistently for 40 years so you had every age demographic come out to see it because so many people have played a Mario game at one point in their life.
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It also has to be an IP that has managed to remain consistently popular throughout that time. Mario hasn't really gone through the same peaks and valleys that a franchise like Sonic has.
 
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Zelda and Splatoon would be billion dollar hits for Nintendo but not sure for Metroid and Star Fox
For others, Roblox, GTA, and COD if Activision is open for it.
 
andreeeee456 said:
Zelda and Splatoon would be billion dollar hits for Nintendo but not sure for Metroid and Star Fox
For others, Roblox, GTA, and COD if Activision is open for it.
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Let's pump the breaks here, Splatoon isn't even a decade old. It is nowhere near as internationally popular as series like Mario, Pokemon or Zelda either.
 
Mekanos said:
Let's pump the breaks here, Splatoon isn't even a decade old. It is nowhere near as internationally popular as series like Mario, Pokemon or Zelda either.
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There were talks about including Splatoon in Super Nintendo World, so if they start building a Splatoon expansion for Super Nintendo World in the future, I am really expecting that the Splatoon film will make a billion.
 
andreeeee456 said:
Zelda and Splatoon would be billion dollar hits for Nintendo but not sure for Metroid and Star Fox
For others, Roblox, GTA, and COD if Activision is open for it.
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i very much doubt it. Even for zelda that doesnt have the instant family factor that mario has. And yeah splatoon is a 10 year old ip lol, it wouldn't do 1 bill.

And like i said above, a film doesnt needs to cross 1 billion for it to be a success lol. Nintendo obviously isnt banking on all of its films to do that otherwise they will be pretty disappointed.
 
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I think a Pokémon movie made with the same care as the Mario movie could easily do it.
 
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Honestly...
Pokemon done right (not based on an Spinoff, and having pokemon be more cute? but this one feels like it would be hard to do), Zelda done right could work (in, make it a fantasy epic that also catches the Lord of the Rings crows, meaning having it be 90 minutes does not work, but even 3h would kinda be short to tell such a story of Assembling a team of Sages to help you find the legendary sword and kill the bad guy, would probably work better as a series). Heck, i could see every season of the zelda series being a different interpretation of the myth, in one its child link, in another its a random dude that becomes the legendary hero, then one based on the hero of time...

FF has so much pottential, using its aestetics and all, but packing it in a story thats mass marketable. but its probably more a 250-300M movie.

A GTA movie would be a good crime movie...but with GTA branding and references. To narrow of an actual audience for 1B.

Super Smash Bros with enough hype from previous movies could break 1B.

Ironially... Kingdome hearts with enough disney ties ins could win?

I think thats it, i cant see any other even close.
 
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Minecraft, Fortnite, and Pokémon would all hit that mark. Don’t think anything else would. Maybe Animal Crossing if it’s done right.
 
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What can you imagine this hypothetical Pokémon movie to be about? A Blue/Red adaptation? A sequel to the classic anime with a grown Ash?

I find hard to believe that an original story could push the film to the billion tbh
 
The Doki Doki Panic film when it's rebranded as a Mario movie in the West.
 
andreeeee456 said:
There were talks about including Splatoon in Super Nintendo World, so if they start building a Splatoon expansion for Super Nintendo World in the future, I am really expecting that the Splatoon film will make a billion.
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The Mario theme park isn't why the movie is making so much money, it's because it's one of the most recognizable and beloved entertainment brands in the world. Splatoon doesn't have the history or popularity to come close to that.

Síriocaz said:
What can you imagine this hypothetical Pokémon movie to be about? A Blue/Red adaptation? A sequel to the classic anime with a grown Ash?

I find hard to believe that an original story could push the film to the billion tbh
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It would be difficult to do with time constraints, but maybe a mix of adventure and league battles (not literally 8 gyms, maybe like 2-3). LOTR + sports movie.

There's no doubt it's a tough question and probably why they tried something smaller in scope with Detective Pikachu.
 
I'm wondering if even Pokemon under ideal circumstances that weren't the case with Detective Pikachu (animated, adapting Red/Blue or the original anime) could crack a billion.

The franchise I think has a generational divide that Mario didn't have to worry about due to its primary target audience being kids vs. Mario who's target audience has always been everyone. Would anyone older than the first generation of kids who grew up with Pokémon (around 30 to 40 year olds) show excitement for a movie of this IP?

Then there's just the question of if it would feel like an "event" in the same way a new Mario movie in 30 years was, since Pokemon has a long history of anime TV + movies and the recent Detective Pikachu movie.
 
WestEgg said:
Kingdom Hearts would be a nightmare to adapt into film. If they wanted to do it Justice, they would adapt Disney segments in the style of the source material, but that would be too expensive and resource intensive, so we’d get Ralph Breaks the Internet style Disney character portrayals. And that’s not even getting into trying to adapt the plot into a two hour window in a satisfying way. They’d have to move from set piece to set piece faster than Mario did, which would choke time for character development that the fans will be looking for. I think Kingdom Hearts would almost certainly need a longer form adaptation like a series or anime to be in anyway satisfying.
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You can do 1 in a trilogy if you write it well. Let's do that first. Because the complexity that comes after...oh boy.
 
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The Minecraft movie that actually exists isn't going to get anywhere close. Sounds like a nightmare in the making.

I think Detective Pikachu was held back by virtue of presenting itself like a spin-off; but i'm not sure how well a Hollywood Pokemon movie would turn out either. The gym challenge and Pokemon League (even with a bit of criminal organisation sprinkled in) don't make for a very interesting story; and doesn't leave you with much potential for a sequel that doesn't feel like the exact same movie. Even the anime doesn't bother with it anymore; the new series is focused on a group of adventurers flying around in their Final Fantasy-looking airship. We also don't get anime films nearly as often as we did the last two decades so I guess there is a bit of room now for Pokemon to experiment. You'd inevitably need to deviate to make a successful Pokemon film; it's just a matter of what direction to deviate in, since Detective Pikachu clearly isn't the way.
 
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My first thought was Zelda, but a lot of things would have to break right in order to hit $1 billion. Never say never though I’m more likely to think that $1 billion isn’t happening for any other video game IP.
 
Catsylvania said:
My first thought was Zelda, but a lot of things would have to break right in order to hit $1 billion. Never say never though I’m more likely to think that $1 billion isn’t happening for any other video game IP.
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I think the issue with Zelda is unlike Mario it's had a lot of peaks and valleys in its popularity over the years. It's never been unpopular, per se, but it feels more like it has a big zeitgeist moment every decade (LOZ, OOT, TP, BOTW), and then surrounding games that are successful but less iconic and recognizable. Regardless, 1 billion or otherwise, we can be assured they're working on something Zelda right now after the Mario movie's success.
 
My first thought was Zelda too but I kinda share the sentiment some here already voiced that it just isn't as universally recognizable as Mario..
There's mabye Pokemon but I agree that it probably wouldn't be as big an event with multiple decads of animated Pokemon on TV and in cinemas, plus you would really run into trouble as to what you'd be adapting... Final Fantasy runs into similar problems of "what to adapt?". Call of Duty won't get that precious all ages audience.

Maybe Minecraft? But again, I don't think it has that broad of an appeal as Mario, at least not yet.

I just don't know man. Almost feels like Mario was a once in a lifetime opportunity?
 
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who knows? I don't think there's an easy way to predict this.

We could end up with a scenario where an adaptation of a lesser known game just kinda blows up, akin to Guardians of the Galaxy back in 2014.

Hell, you could argue Rampage already did this on a smaller scale, since it was the second highest grossing video game movie at the time (now at fourth)
 
Zelda, Pokemon (Detective Pikachu was great, but it was so far removed from what 'Pokemon' is to most people I'm not surprised it didn't do better), Minecraft and GTA could all do it.
 
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Gonna be really clique considering the Nintendo owns this IP as well, and this is my #1 running franchise of all time so I am a bit bias…

But I feel Legend of Zelda IF DONE CORRECTLY would be able to pull it off.
 
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Remember, Warcraft, even if it was a few years after it peaked didnt come close to a billion dollars.
I dont think any 'hardcore' gaming franchises would be able to hit that number honestly. It needs the kids audience which is why I think huge franchises like GTA, Call of Duty and so on wouldnt be able to crack it..

Outside of Mario...
Pokémon
Minecraft
Fortnite


I kind of think that's it.. ? At least for now
 
If Nintendo is able to establish themselves as a film brand to audiences like Marvel or Pixar then it could help lift the potential box office of lesser known franchises. But yeah right now I have a hard time seeing many other Nintendo IP pulling off a billion dollars. Donkey Kong and Zelda have the most box office potential but I'd hesitate to say they can do a billion.
 
Gartooth said:
If Nintendo is able to establish themselves as a film brand to audiences like Marvel or Pixar then it could help lift the potential box office of lesser known franchises. But yeah right now I have a hard time seeing many other Nintendo IP pulling off a billion dollars. Donkey Kong and Zelda have the most box office potential but I'd hesitate to say they can do a billion.
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If Mario does a billion I would guess DK does about half of that. Avengers did 1.5 billion and Winter Soldier did around 700. Being a spin-off of a super popular movie will help but it has to build itself as its own brand too. If a new DK game comes out between now and the movie though that might change the calculus.
 
Mekanos said:
If Mario does a billion I would guess DK does about half of that. Avengers did 1.5 billion and Winter Soldier did around 700. Being a spin-off of a super popular movie will help but it has to build itself as its own brand too. If a new DK game comes out between now and the movie though that might change the calculus.
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A game wouldn't matter at all. The audience for the Mario movie went well beyond the Switch playing audience.

If DK has an audience problem it will be with kids because the brand hasn't been relevant in their upbringing. But Mario's audience turnout shows people of all ages coming out in force so I wouldn't call this a deal breaker.
 
I've always believed that a Halo movie in 2007, coinciding with the release of 3 would have become one of the biggest movies of all time.

Microsoft fumbled that franchise HARD when it came to expanding beyond games.
 
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