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Discussion UK: General Election called for 4th of July

Ok... that ITV debate between Rishi and Starmer was bad. Both were pretty bad at it. Rishi was way too rude and spoke over the host over and over again and Starmer couldn't articulate his points in a timely manner.
 
Ok... that ITV debate between Rishi and Starmer was bad. Both were pretty bad at it. Rishi was way too rude and spoke over the host over and over again and Starmer couldn't articulate his points in a timely manner.
The 45 second format is terrible. I want to hear how our two major party's leaders will lead the country, not a sequence of shouted tweets.
 

Reform got within 2 points of the tories in a you gov poll following farage being made leader. Not too late for them to tank but at this point you can barely call them a protest vote for the Tories. They have a real chance of replacing them. As if things couldn't get more depressing.
 

Reform got within 2 points of the tories in a you gov poll following farage being made leader. Not too late for them to tank but at this point you can barely call them a protest vote for the Tories. They have a real chance of replacing them. As if things couldn't get more depressing.
Not exactly great news but vote share paints a very incomplete picture under FPTP. Is that share concentrated in constituencies they can realistically win or is it too diffuse for them to really make major gains? Traditionally vote share for UKIP/Reform has not translated into equivalent seats.

They won't replace the Tories, at least not in this election, and I think the real risk they pose is that the Tories move further right to try and take that vote back, becoming increasingly Trumpian under some danger like Braverman.
 

Reform got within 2 points of the tories in a you gov poll following farage being made leader. Not too late for them to tank but at this point you can barely call them a protest vote for the Tories. They have a real chance of replacing them. As if things couldn't get more depressing.
The kind of ignorance that thinks a far right vote and attacking everyone else is the way out of economic disparity following 14 years of Tory rule and shooting themselves in the foot with Brexit, is a special kind of ignorance. One that not only doesn’t learn lessons, but refuses to, and doesn’t want anyone else to aspire for anything beyond despair and small-minded bullshit either.
 
On a lighter note, here's Lee Anderson failing to log into his alt before endorsing himself.



Just Lee Anderson trying to follow himself, probably forgot to switch accounts back.
 
Not exactly great news but vote share paints a very incomplete picture under FPTP. Is that share concentrated in constituencies they can realistically win or is it too diffuse for them to really make major gains? Traditionally vote share for UKIP/Reform has not translated into equivalent seats.

They won't replace the Tories, at least not in this election, and I think the real risk they pose is that the Tories move further right to try and take that vote back, becoming increasingly Trumpian under some danger like Braverman.
This is all true but if the result of the election ends up being say labour 40 tory 20 reform 15 then bigoted and (crypto)fascist voters will be more confident they don't need to defect to tories in 2029 even if it is a more competitive election and so could launch a genuine campaign to win not to move the tories to the right as they have been doing for decades. And if that campaign goes well enough that it flips so reform are ahead of the tories it'll be reform gaining seats with the Tories struggling to get any. And if Starmer and co. fail to deliver any change for the good there is a possibility people might just try anything especially if there remains no viable left wing alternative two elections down the line.

So yeah I wasn't saying they're going to replace them this time but they could get a result good enough to replace them in the next few years. I sincerely hope they don't and they collapse to sub 10 though.
 
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Sunak- leaves D-Day remembrance event early to record self-serving election interview.
Also Sunak- ‘stop the boats crossing the channel’.
 
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My head is in my hands at the situation in France today. After a massive loss to the far right in the European elections, Macron’s just dissolved parliament there and called a snap election. He’s literally gambling with France itself. Haven’t seen anything like it since Brexit. Did he see Cameron gamble with the soul of the nation and think that somehow ended well or something
 
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My head is in my hands at the situation in France today. After a massive loss to the far right in the European elections, Macron’s just dissolved parliament there and called a snap election. He’s literally gambling with France itself. Haven’t seen anything like it since Brexit. Did he see Cameron gamble with the soul of the nation and think that somehow ended well or something
France has a hung parliament IIRC so I guess he believes he has nothing to lose. He's wrong, but y'know... that's how it goes.
 
France has a hung parliament IIRC so I guess he believes he has nothing to lose. He's wrong, but y'know... that's how it goes.
Yeah. His political career has nothing to lose. France itself has a hell of a lot if they end up with years of a far right majority.
 
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New MRP poll.
As expected, the Tories' position is dire and places them only 16 seats ahead of the Liberal Democrats.
A 262 majority would be absolutely mindblowingly enormous, but a majority that large will probably be difficult to control so Keir Starmer has a huge task ahead of him in that regard.
This is the sort of result that will probably mean the Tories will campaign for a form of Proportional Representation which would be an interesting sight to see.
 


New MRP poll.
As expected, the Tories' position is dire and places them only 16 seats ahead of the Liberal Democrats.
A 262 majority would be absolutely mindblowingly enormous, but a majority that large will probably be difficult to control so Keir Starmer has a huge task ahead of him in that regard.
This is the sort of result that will probably mean the Tories will campaign for a form of Proportional Representation which would be an interesting sight to see.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do that while lurching even further right in an alliance with Reform in order to maintain some kind of viable (in terms of size) opposition under FPTP next time around. Which would just be bizarre.
 


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