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Fun Club Tears Of The Kingdom VS. Baldur's Gate 3: Which One Will Take GOTY At The Game Awards (betting thread)

who will win GOTY at The Game Awards

  • Total voters
    253
  • Poll closed .
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I prefer Zelda, but western gaming will prioritize a developer that is not as big as Nintendo and a game that seems to be a new IP (even though BG is old as hell).
 
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I still think back to TGA 2020 and how a lot of us felt like Animal Crossing New Horizons was the game that reigned the osmosis that year and that it winning GOTY would make for the better "narrative" in a year as fucked as 2020.

AC fans will disagree now but it still should've won for a litany of reasons.
 
This is a very personal opinion, and I know people are divided on the subject, but for me ToTk has corrected some of the things I had trouble with in Botw and added content and depth -in every sense of the word-. Overall, I think Totk is a much better game than Botw.

However, I think BG3 will win for the same reason Botw won in 2017: the ability to hype everyone, to impress everyone, to bring novelty. And given the very nature of Geoff's thing, it seems pretty normal and justified to me that BG3 should win according to these criteria, in addition to the game's very many qualities, although coming out bug-free is apparently not one of said qualities.
 
Plum said:
Well, according to my data:

gameawards-GOTYanalysis.png


TotK is the statistical favourite:

  • Action Adventure accounts for 56% of the winners from prior years
  • The winner generally isn't the top-scorer of either its year or the nominees themselves
  • Nintendo is highly popular when it comes to GOTY nominations
  • The number of TotK reviews on MC is far above-average for GOTY winners/nominations
  • Only a single TGA winner has released after July, and that was in the relatively 'dull' year of 2014
The only negative statistics-wise that Nintendo has is that it's not a multiplatform game; though BG3 was PC-only for the height of its popularity, and has yet to become fully multiplat, so I'm not sure how much of an advantage that is.

However, statistics don't say everything. BG3 is big enough, well-reviewed enough, and popular enough that it could take it and I would not be surprised at all. Frankly the only real surprise would be if it went to neither of the two, but I can't see that being the case unless - somehow - the fierce battle between them allows the No. 3 spot to eek out a win.
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TOTK was already my GOTY, but it has to win now because of this analysis. Bravo.
 
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Also, this situation brings me back to 2018, where Red Dead Redemption 2 was winning a lot of awards but ended up "losing" GOTY to God of War.

Also, TOTK will win, since the poll is heavily favouring BG3 and this forum is always wrong in the polls.
 
rick_C said:
BG3. It is not about BG3 is good or not, it just because TOTK doesnt fit the "taste" of TGA.

IMO TOTK have more innovation on gaming. It bring much more new gameplay experience to player compare with BG3, but this is not what TGA focus on.

Although i think nintendo doesnt really care about it, so thats fine.
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Data shows TotK fits the taste of the TGA's just fine.

I think it's close enough it'll probably be a coin flip and you could in this case reasonably waste a couple hours just thinking of multiple meta reasons why either of the games will win. Definitely not one I'm confident betting on at all.
 
TOTK makes sense because let's be fair, it sold 20M+ copies... a lot more ppl played it than BG3 even in the gaming media most likely + its Zelda and open world 3d action adventure that will probably do very well with a wider swath of voters.

What I can see happening though, is TOTK and BG3 split a lot of votes and the committed and fairly sizable horror fanbase lean hard into Alan Wake and it pulls off an upset while the other two take votes away from eachother
 
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SpaceGodzilla said:
edit: This is a betting thread. know this before voting

I know nominations aren't out yet but we all know it's going to come down to these 2, anyway, the losing teams must change their icon to a "sad Mario" for 2 weeks

here are some examples



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despite me wanting TOTK to win GOTY 2023, i feeling Baldur Gate 3 have a much high probability be crowned GOTY 2023
 
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Both TotK and BG3 have about 150 reviews on MC and both sit at a 96, so it's funny how close that is when considering this.

Also worth remembering 10% of the final ballot comes from fan votes, and both obviously have very large and passionate fanbases.
 
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Leica said:
Data shows TotK fits the taste of the TGA's just fine.

I think it's close enough it'll probably be a coin flip and you could in this case reasonably waste a couple hours just thinking of multiple meta reasons why either of the games will win. Definitely not one I'm confident betting on at all.
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About GOTY, it just a (core gamer) fanbase game due to its voting system. Nintendo games are exclusive and blue ocean, which add a huge debuff on it. Even if it is better than its competitor, the result is obvious, so no need to spend time on it.
 
JorgenRaft said:
I don't exactly understand how TotK doesn't fit the "taste" of TGA when BotW won in 2017.
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Botw did far away better than its competitor to overcome the debuff. But i dont think Totk have such power to overcome the debuff right now, even i think Totk did better than BG3 in gameplay experience.

I remembered that when 2017 GOTY announced, aonuma feel surprised too, they just though they were an also-ran.
 
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Having played both extensively, id vote baulders gate 3. But both games are truly excellent, accomplishments in the industry and both deserve to be celebrated, one shouldnt have to “win” over the other. That just makes people dislike great games out of spite
 
MeatheadSamus said:
I'd bet my bank account BG3 will win. Haven't played it but TGA seems to like the darker, grittier games.
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I dont think that has anything to do with it? Baulders gate 3 has pheonomenal writing, great characters, fun turn based combat, a lot of cool possibilities for how you want to interact with the world. Actually regarding that last point both it an zelda are similar in that sense. I dont think it’s getting preferential treatment for being dark. Its an inventive game, just like Zelda is
 
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rick_C said:
About GOTY, it just a (core gamer) fanbase game due to its voting system. Nintendo games are exclusive and blue ocean, which add a huge debuff on it. Even if it is better than its competitor, the result is obvious, so no need to spend time on it.
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This still makes no sense because TotK (or Zelda in general really) is a critic's darling and it has a pretty active/fervent core gaming fanbase online too, it's really favorably positioned with how the voting system works at these awards.
 
I am playing BG3 at the moment. While I REALLY enjoy a ton of aspects and is more "different" than TotK and that gives me enjoyment points....

I kinda feel TotK is hands down the better game. Due to having extremely complex mechanics and almost 0 bugs.
In my time with BG3 I felt I ended in a multitude of "have to load again" type of bugs that harmed the experience. It's also quite clunky control wise (not that TotK is perfect)

Honestly, I do believe I'm subjectively objective (meaning of course it's still my opinion) but it's not even a contest from a critic's standpoint
 
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aus89 said:
TOTK makes sense because let's be fair, it sold 20M+ copies... a lot more ppl played it than BG3 even in the gaming media most likely + its Zelda and open world 3d action adventure that will probably do very well with a wider swath of voters.

What I can see happening though, is TOTK and BG3 split a lot of votes and the committed and fairly sizable horror fanbase lean hard into Alan Wake and it pulls off an upset while the other two take votes away from eachother
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I don't think sales matter, what matters is if critics played the games, but if they did even a split vote for Baldur's Gate and Tears of the Kingdom would probably beat Alan Wake. You have to remember that while Alan Wake is a critics darling, it's fairly niche and Baldurs Gate is probably at 10-12m by now, and Zelda at 20m.

And then of course, Alan Wake would probably have a somrwhat split vote with REmake 4, and it has less reviews than both BG3 and Tears, which are almost tied.
 
BG3 because they gave it to BOTW back in 2007.
IIRC sequels rarely win (yeah I know BG3 is technically a sequel, but you know what I mean).
 
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JorgenRaft said:
I don't exactly understand how TotK doesn't fit the "taste" of TGA when BotW won in 2017.
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I think my general take on it is that Breath of the Wild was the hot new thing at the time. Tears of the Kingdom is a redux of that now. A very good one, but still ultimately a redux. Similar logic to the God of War duology; 2018 was the brand new look for the franchise, Ragnarok was the iterative sequel that built off of that.

TotK will pull plenty of awards too, but in the context of the main award, BG3 is a much closer fit compared to previous years' winners.
 
Damn it's crazy to see those poll results. Back in the nominations prediction thread, back in late July a few days before the full release of the game, a few of us were saying that it was a lock for a nomination, which was met with a general consensus of "no way a CRPG gets nominated", so that alone makes me think it'll indeed win seeing how the general consensus is now that it'll probably win.

BG3 is THAT big that people think that fucking TOTK of all games won't win.
 
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AngryAlchemist said:
I don't think sales matter, what matters is if critics played the games, but if they did even a split vote for Baldur's Gate and Tears of the Kingdom would probably beat Alan Wake. You have to remember that while Alan Wake is a critics darling, it's fairly niche and Baldurs Gate is probably at 10-12m by now, and Zelda at 20m.

And then of course, Alan Wake would probably have a somrwhat split vote with REmake 4, and it has less reviews than both BG3 and Tears, which are almost tied.
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I think it's probably fair to say that BG3 is still more niche than Zelda (about 10m more niche apparently).
But yeah - I don't see there really being a Sekiro style result where Alan Wake etc... eeks it out, but its a possibility, I guess we have to see if RE4 even gets nominated as well - I see it being TOTK, BG3, Spider-Man 2, Alan Wake 2, Mario Wonder and then one of... Starfield (possible for Xbox/Bethesda fans), RE4, maybe Hi-Fi Rush - i see Starfield getting in ahead of RE4 somehow
 
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I just hope in the annual Keighley's bashing, because I'm still pissed about MK8 which was robbed in 2014



/s
 
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BG3 seemed less controversial (relatively)
While totk is a great game, there was some criticism about its derivative was from note.

BG3 seemed as if is was just praised, and as if it gave a genre a huge boost. Haven't played it.

I would say BG3
 
rick_C said:
BG3. It is not about BG3 is good or not, it just because TOTK doesnt fit the "taste" of TGA.

IMO TOTK have more innovation on gaming. It bring much more new gameplay experience to player compare with BG3, but this is not what TGA focus on.

Although i think nintendo doesnt really care about it, so thats fine.
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What about TOTK doesn't fit TGA? It's quite the contrary really
 
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rick_C said:
About GOTY, it just a (core gamer) fanbase game due to its voting system. Nintendo games are exclusive and blue ocean, which add a huge debuff on it. Even if it is better than its competitor, the result is obvious, so no need to spend time on it.
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You think Nintendo has a debuff and not a buff?😂 what
 
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I am still playing totk with my son. He was too young when botw came out, It was the first Zelda I played blind together with my son. So when I look back, years from now, this will stay in my memory. And hopefully in his memory. Bg3 is such a good game. It is so good. But this moment with my son can not be topped and tops even the little me moment when I first played OoT. Sorry Bg3. Any other year I would have voted for you. But regardless, bg3 will win at the end. Great year for gamers.
 
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I'm biased because I've only played TOTK, so I'm going with that. Truthfully, BG3 may edge out the win in the end, and honestly either game would appear deserving.

My TOTK take is now that I'm finally sinking some good hours into it, I always get fascinated, and impressed by how everything. just. fucking. works. Having not played BG3, I am not privy to if BG3 launched in such a completed state like TOTK did.
 
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Watch Alan Wake 2 win and all but 4 people who voted have to be sad clickbait Mario for two weeks.
 
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It is gonna be BG3. They convinced regular gamers to play a CRPG. Thats a miracle on it's own before you get into what seems to be the mechanical and story stuff that my friends been telling me about.
 
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Starphanluke said:
Baldur's Gate takes GotY, Zelda takes Direction
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I could see it flipping either way when it comes to both, but I definitely think if there's any award where the difference ends up being split, it'll be this one. TOTK was too much of a worldwide phenomenon to completely ignore, being praised by critics, game developers, and players alike. The jury is a multinational one from all around the globe and there's the strong possibility that there'll be some regionally slanted votes because of it. I also imagine that because TOTK came out so early in the year, there's a high likelihood that more people on the jury will have gotten to experience it compared to the other nominees that are playing it close to the date. Recency bias is almost never a thing at the Keighleys, where the big GOTY winners are typically games put out earlier in the year.
 
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voted for TotK without reading the OP and realizing the gravity of the situation.

guess there goes my avatar!
 
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I think vote splitting is going to hit ToTK harder than BG3. I'm personally not a huge fan of either game, FWIW.
 
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It's Baldur's Gate 3 but I voted Zelda anyway, thank me later if I managed to make any cosmic impact with this through the sheer power of my objective bias.
 
I voted zelda, but seeing how many outlets put BG3 above tears, I think baldurs gate is gonna take it
 
Right now it seems like BG3 is only ahead by two or three critic awards compared to TOTK, so it's really hard to tell what the vibe is among the critics going into TGA. BG3 is being propped up by quite a bit of Reader's Choice awards at this early stage.
 
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