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Fun Club Tears Of The Kingdom VS. Baldur's Gate 3: Which One Will Take GOTY At The Game Awards (betting thread)

who will win GOTY at The Game Awards

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BG3 feels like a lock to win GOTY at this point

...although the TRUE GOTY is Mario Wonder
 
Conventional wisdom would suggest that TOTK will take it, mostly because it released earlier into the year. With the sole exception of one year that was already considered a down year, every winner at the Keighleys is a game that released in H1. More critics are bound to have played it and gotten the chance to really ruminate about it over what has already been a stacked year. Baldur's Gate 3 is a mammoth of a game that released relatively late into the year, there will be less critics to have gotten the chance to sink those 200+ hours into the game compared to that May period where the entire game industry collectively froze in time to absorb every last morsel of what people already figured would be the biggest game of the year. Still, Baldur's Gate 3 is clearly a monumental achievement nonetheless, and people like underdog stories, so I can't rule it out. I'm leaning TOTK for now, but not enough to bet on it.
 
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I’m torn.

Gut says BG3, it was massive and kind of revived a genre, a CRPG make a really good story for the win. Whereas TOTK has already “proven” itself being a much better iterative sequel to a game that swept in 2017 already. It’s got a ton of novelty and hype around it.

But I think people forget critics fucking love Zelda, sometimes even more than it’s own fans. Those people who gave it the most perfect scores for a single game ever in MC didn’t just suddenly stop thinking it was a 10, and those are our voters for TGA.
 
My personal pick is Zelda, but as far as what will get the award? Baldur's Gate 3. That game was everywhere when it came out (not that Zelda wasn't). You just couldn't get away from it. Act 3 being lackluster prevents me from giving BG3 the crown, but the chokehold it had on everybody and the fantastic critical reception means it'll get GOTY.
 
Overall, BG3

At TGA itself, Tears of the Kingdom

Just going by gut feeling. (which is how I mostly approach every single post I ever make on this website)
 
Gut feeling that BG3 sweeps this year even though I was a million times more impressed with TOTK.

I would further expand on these thoughts but I don't want to draw the ire of the aptly named Rot Crew.
 
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Personally, I'd go it's RE4R for me but I think BG3 will probably win at the game awards. Tears of the Kingdom is too samey to win it, I think.
 
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Well, according to my data:

gameawards-GOTYanalysis.png


TotK is the statistical favourite:

  • Action Adventure accounts for 56% of the winners from prior years
  • The winner generally isn't the top-scorer of either its year or the nominees themselves
  • Nintendo is highly popular when it comes to GOTY nominations
  • The number of TotK reviews on MC is far above-average for GOTY winners/nominations
  • Only a single TGA winner has released after July, and that was in the relatively 'dull' year of 2014
The only negative statistics-wise that Nintendo has is that it's not a multiplatform game; though BG3 was PC-only for the height of its popularity, and has yet to become fully multiplat, so I'm not sure how much of an advantage that is.

However, statistics don't say everything. BG3 is big enough, well-reviewed enough, and popular enough that it could take it and I would not be surprised at all. Frankly the only real surprise would be if it went to neither of the two, but I can't see that being the case unless - somehow - the fierce battle between them allows the No. 3 spot to eek out a win.
 
If Zelda wins, BG3 was robbed. Haven't played BG3 but I'm 100% sure it doesn't have a dozen cutscenes about the "Secret Stones" which are recycled each time and add absolutely nothing to the game, so on that alone it deserves to win.
 
My favorite games this year were Resident Evil 4, Mario Wonder, and Tears of the Kingdom with Resident Evil 4 being the clear winner by a fairly decent margin. However I really enjoyed all three. Tears was probably the most impressive from a technical standpoint but also had a lot of so-so elements. Wonder was pure joy most of the way through, even if there was some slight disappointments.

I'm playing through Alan Wake 2 and still need to get to Baldur's Gate 3, Armored Core VI, and Spider-Man 2. Excited to have a definitive opinion on this year eventually.
 
BG3 will win due to multiple biases even though it does not deserve to.

Don't get me wrong, I loved the game, but BG3 winning anything proves that you can release games that are full of progression blocking bugs and unfinished, rushed content in the latter half of the game because most people, even reviewers, don't get anywhere close to finishing their games.
 
personally leaning towards TOTK (barely) but that's mostly because of the voting board is multinational and BG3 doesn't seem all that popular in Japan and BG3 just lost to Alan wake 2 for critic's choice for GOTY at the golden joystick which is U.K based, ultimately I think it's going to come down to players vote (which only about 10% that goes into what wins) and who the American critics lean towards more
 
We as Nintendo fans are often fighting against the claim of Nintendo bias in the industry, meanwhile the same fans will throw bias claims at other properties.

I guess that’s the circle of life.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
My favorite games this year were Resident Evil 4, Mario Wonder, and Tears of the Kingdom with Resident Evil 4 being the clear winner by a fairly decent margin. However I really enjoyed all three. Tears was probably the most impressive from a technical standpoint but also had a lot of so-so elements. Wonder was pure joy most of the way through, even if there was some slight disappointments.

I'm playing through Alan Wake 2 and still need to get to Baldur's Gate 3, Armored Core VI, and Spider-Man 2. Excited to have a definitive opinion on this year eventually.
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Your post illustrates just how great a time we live in for loving video games, whatever the plateforms.
 
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To answer the topic, I think BG3 edges it out. It seems like it really spiced up the genre same way BotW did in 2017.

I think TotK is great despite having a lot of issues with it, but a BG3 win I think would be more interesting.

My own GOTY is RE4, as I found it basically as perfect as I found the OG 15 years ago. Pikmin 4 is right behind it, though that is sadly not gonna be in these conversations as much.
 
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Lunacid.

The hype for Zelda and Baldur’s Gate feels pretty manufactured. You’re telling me that millions of people played these games? Psh, come on. I don’t even know half as many gamers.
 
Dardan Sandiego said:
Lunacid.

The hype for Zelda and Baldur’s Gate feels pretty manufactured. You’re telling me that millions of people played these games? Psh, come on. I don’t even know half as many gamers.
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Have you ever seen Zelda and Baldur in the same room? Makes you think...
 
Badlur's Gate 3 feels more novel (though I haven't played it) and I'm expecting that to give it the edge for TGA. Tears is ultimately very much a BoTW sequel despite how much it brings to the table

Tears is my personal current GoTY though
 
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Neither game does anything for me. I got bored of TotK 20 hours in and Baldur's Gate 3 is so full of bugs, the party members were so embarrassingly horny, the story so banal, general gameplay so slow and performance so bad in act 3 that I'm frankly amazed it even has the reception it has.

It actually really sucks that people think BG3 did some momentous thing to revive CRPGs while Torment, Tyranny, Wasteland 2 and 3, Pillars of Eternity 1 and 2 and Shadowrun all came out over the last however many years and oh look at that all of those series are now dead and the devs had to move on to other genres so anyone saying the genre's revived now after a game spent half of its dev time with fans giving them free QA testing, congrats, too little too late. Better enjoy the one you have, which might actually be finished in another couple years.

Anyway, big rant aside, I'd pick Alan Wake 2, Mario Wonder, RE4R or even Star Ocean 2R but I know that last one is just a personal thing.
 
BG3 will get some other awards whole goty will go to either Wonder or TotK. Since TotK won most hyped game last year, I'm leaning on Wonder.
 
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It'll be BG3. To me the GotY is Starfield followed very closely by TotK. I just don't vibe with the type of game BG3 is. I think the game is a bit overrated and reviewers got caught up in the grassroots style hype the game had. From what I played, it's a game with some very serious issues which is ironic as people used it as a chess piece to call out the state of AAA gaming.
 
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If I were giving betting odds purely on vibes: 50% BG3, 42% TOTK, 5% Alan Wake 2 (dark horse at the late hour), 1% Spiderman 2, 1% something else.
 
I think it depends upon how voting is done

The more people who have the ability to vote, the more I think it leans towards TotK winning. TotK has sold almost 2x the copies of BG3, and is in a more crowd pleasing genre. Even in this thread look at the amount of people who actively claim to have not played BG3 but believe it "deserves it" off vibes.

I also think people here are underselling how innovative TotK's mechanics are and overselling how much "better" BG3 reviewed/was received. It's basically a wash for reviews.
 
Did any voting outlet already dropped awards or ranked lists? TGA is kind of an aggregator so we could use some of those results as a thermometer. Probably too early though, TGA should’ve been in January 😅

I saw that Alan Wake 2 won the Golden Joystick critics’ award but I have no idea about that jury’s composition and it never seems to predict TGA’s

Online conversations seem to favor Baldur’s Gate 3 but Zelda might vibe with more members of the outlets' teams due to their different genres
 
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BG3 holds absolutely no appeal to me, have zero interest in what it's doing or how it goes about it, yet as a huge Zelda fan I can just tell it should probably win over TotK if it's down to the two of them. TotK was for sure an amazing game but definitely fell short of justifying its time of development, the corners it cut, its price, and whole existence. Where as BG3 seems to be universally praised by those who are into it, spoken of as a game that over-delivers, sets a new bar for polish and depth, puts other games in its class to shame to the extent that the competitors really want you to just ignore it.
 
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BG3 feels like this year’s breath of the wild, funny enough. It’s got the praise and the hype factor, and it feels like more of an “achievement” so to speak. As good as totk is, I think those more ephemeral factors will hold it back.
 
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I'm not sure why people care who wins the goty award at the VGAs. I'd guess it's probably gonna be BG3 tho, or Zelda, or maybe something else.
 
EggmaniMN said:
Neither game does anything for me. I got bored of TotK 20 hours in and Baldur's Gate 3 is so full of bugs, the party members were so embarrassingly horny, the story so banal, general gameplay so slow and performance so bad in act 3 that I'm frankly amazed it even has the reception it has.

It actually really sucks that people think BG3 did some momentous thing to revive CRPGs while Torment, Tyranny, Wasteland 2 and 3, Pillars of Eternity 1 and 2 and Shadowrun all came out over the last however many years and oh look at that all of those series are now dead and the devs had to move on to other genres so anyone saying the genre's revived now after a game spent half of its dev time with fans giving them free QA testing, congrats, too little too late. Better enjoy the one you have, which might actually be finished in another couple years.

Anyway, big rant aside, I'd pick Alan Wake 2, Mario Wonder, RE4R or even Star Ocean 2R but I know that last one is just a personal thing.
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okay im lead shadowrun defender and even I know it looks absolutely out of place in that statement
harebrained went on to make battletech, and lamplighter's league. battletech is literally another ttrpg made back in the 80s that they gave a modern coat of paint and modernized, lamplighter's isn't based on a specific ttrpg, but is also a character driven rpg that shares a lot of the same DNA of their game design when it came to shadowrun.
harebrained schemes is just doing non Shadowrun stuff- you can still get a lot of the same vibes you could from Shadowrun by playing Lamplighter's League especially.
i don't disagree that CRPG's have had a presence in the gaming sphere before the return of baldurs gate, but to argue that harebrained went onto other genres strikes me as odd considering THE GOATS NEVER LEFT BABY HAREBRAINED IS STILL IN THE BUILDING
[i do miss jivebot though, perhaps one day we can get a continuation of the best AI in the world. Shadowrun 2 Baby!]
 
BG3. It is not about BG3 is good or not, it just because TOTK doesnt fit the "taste" of TGA.

IMO TOTK have more innovation on gaming. It bring much more new gameplay experience to player compare with BG3, but this is not what TGA focus on.

Although i think nintendo doesnt really care about it, so thats fine.
 
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I love Zelda, never played BG3, but I can see why this one has to win.

Quality and quantity.
 
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rick_C said:
BG3. It is not about BG3 is good or not, it just because TOTK doesnt fit the "taste" of TGA.

IMO TOTK have more innovation on gaming. It bring much more new gameplay experience to player compare with BG3, but this is not what TGA focus on.

Although i think nintendo doesnt really care about it, so thats fine.
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How can you say that when botw won?
 
I think it's interesting that apparently Alan Wake 2 won the critics choice at the Joystick Awards. It could mean a vote that splits, I would guess, more between AW2 and BG3. I've yet to play BG3 (waiting for it to arrive on XSX, for which I have more controllers than my PS5), so personal GOTY is TOTK. Normally I think it would win the TGA too, it seems like a broader liked genre and the things it does with it's construction engine far surpass any competition. But if I were to bet I would give it to BG3. Much like last year with Elden Ring and GOW Ragnarok, I don't think they're going to award a straight sequel to a game that already won, at least not with good competition, and I think a large subset of critics will be amenable to the idea that BG3 revives a genre and is therefore more influential.
 
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