Sales Data Switch hits 114.33 million shipped, updated software numbers

[xghost777]

Sorted!

Thanks!

 

[Luminoth9090]

Due to the slightly disappointing hardware sales and record Q2 software sales the tie ratio this quarter was an insane 16.62
and pushes the Nintendo Switch over a total tie ratio of 8.

 

[Luminoth9090]

That hardware decline is to be expected; with the downward revision to the forecast, this'll be the first financial year since 2019/20 that hardware shipments don't top 20 million for the year.

For the fiscal year that is likely correct but for the Calendar year it might hit 20 million. After 3 quarters of the Calendar year Switch is at 10.79 million and needs a 9.21 million holiday to make it to 20 million.

 

[meatbag]

likely their first system to hit 1 billion software units sold.

And that's without GTA and COD and other big third party games. Astounding.

 

[Dunban]

Congratulations to Kirby for becoming the best selling game in the series!

Also that's a strong start for Xenoblade 3, I hope it reaches 2 million by the end of the year.

 

[Bonejack]

Remind me please, this is a earnings release without a Q&A briefing, right?

 

[Nintendojitsu]

The Nintendo Switch is the one who knocks.

 

[Ozeiyo]

Any updates for Metroid Dread?

 

[carlosfilho]

Great start for XC3.

 

[Stinky Horse]

Remind me please, this is a earnings release without a Q&A briefing, right?

There is usually one tomorrow. Previous quarter near to their annual meeting is where they don't do one.

 

[9-Volt]

And that's without GTA and COD and other big third party games. Astounding.

Well, the only GTA game on Switch is one of the best selling third party games. It re-enters top 10 eShop lists whenever there's a sale. It still has that GTA effect on the console.

 

[Enpsty]

Do you know what's mental? All these happened without a single price drop since launch. Absolutely insane.

 

[MisterSpo]

The next quarter will have several really big milestones:

• Switch overtakes PS4
• Switch overtakes GameBoy + GBC
• Switch software totals overtake Wii and DS software totals
• Switch becomes the first Nintendo system to ship more than 1 billion software units (potentially)

Any updates for Metroid Dread?

Updates would only come from 1 million copies being shipped in the reporting period. Maybe Dread is doing well and ships 1 million in the current fiscal year, but we'll likely need to wait for updated numbers. I forget the name of the agency, but a Japanese firm has updated sales totals, which is how we have updated figures for titles like XBC 2 and Fire Emblem Three Houses.

 

[Tailzo]

I'm happy to see Ring Fit being such a success

 

[AxkilAvenger]

Do you know what's mental? All these happened without a single price drop since launch. Absolutely insane.

Almost as criminal as the PS price hike..almost

 

[meatbag]

Well, the only GTA game on Switch is one of the best selling third party games. It re-enters top 10 eShop lists whenever there's a sale. It still has that GTA effect on the console.

… I’m not gonna lie, I completely forgot about the trilogy hahaha

 

[Galgavias]

Smash so close to breaking the 30M barrier. Kirby and the Forgotten Land proving to be a breakout hit for the puffball. Xenoblade 3 with a great debut. Software on the whole being very healthy. Switch just keeps on trucking.

 

[Johnzyboi]

Kirby possibly having two 5+ million games on the Switch, you love to see. Here’s hoping it can reach 10+ million.

Looks like Superstar has taken over as the de facto Mario Party to buy.

 

[Red Monster]

It looks like the only way the Switch can really be the best-selling console of all time is if Drake comes out and is a Game Boy Color situation.

 

[Amin_Parker]

Is it true that Nintendo’s next financial report would be sometime in February 2023?

 

[Chaotic Neutral]

It looks like the only way the Switch can really be the best-selling console of all time is if Drake comes out and is a Game Boy Color situation.

The dream is dead, long live the dream!

 

[AR15mex]

A quote from install base

Splatoon 3 hits 5M in Japan in a matter of weeks as expected, meanwhile not even 3M in the rest of the World is surprising

Not to me, the game looks exactly like 2 and the marketing team failed to show the new stuff to differentiate from its predecessor.

 

[meatbag]

Is it true that Nintendo’s next financial report would be sometime in February 2023?

Yep.

It looks like the only way the Switch can really be the best-selling console of all time is if Drake comes out and is a Game Boy Color situation.

Oooor if the Switch continues til past 2024.

A quote from install base

Splatoon 3 sold 2.9m in 3 weeks, which is more than what Splatoon 2 sold in 2 months (2.05m).

It's not that Splatoon 3 is doing poorly overseas. It's that Splatoon 3 is doing historical numbers in Japan.

 

[Mr Doggo]

A quote from install base



Not to me, the game looks exactly like 2 and the marketing team failed to show the new stuff to differentiate from its predecessor.

I feel like japan is way crazier about splatoon than the rest of the world, so splat 3 wont be doing something like reaching 20 million. It might just reach 2.

 

[Red Monster]

Oooor if the Switch continues til past 2024.

You think Original Recipe Switch will keep doing 20m a year after the New Switch launches? It’ll keep selling for sure, but I donno if it’ll sell as fast as it is now.

 

[meatbag]

You think Original Recipe Switch will keep doing 20m a year after the New Switch launches?

Bold of you to assume the new Switch is launching by 2024

 

[WestEgg]

Kirby is the real standout to me, over 5 million already is very impressive for a non-Mario 3D platformer.

 

[Luminoth9090]

Regional Hardware Shipments

Regional Software Shipments

For hardware as expected Europe fell this quarter. It seems Europe shipments are erratic, one quarter they're good and then the next
quarter they tank. For software every region did great apart from Other which was a bit down.

 

[MisterSpo]

Assuming Nintendo hit their forecast exactly, then Switch will be at 126.65 million by the end of the fiscal year (March 31st, 2023). It would need to ship another ~29 million before being discontinued to hit DS/PS2 numbers.

It's not impossible, but it's not something to be taken for granted. Really depends how soon and how quickly Nintendo shift manufacturing capacity over to new hardware. I very much expect new hardware within the next 12 months, but that doesn't necessarily mean the first-gen Switch is going to vanish without a trace. But I think it's a tough ask at this point; obviously it really depends on when Nintendo launch new hardware and what sort of balance they strike between new and old Switch shipments.

 

[meatbag]

I very much expect new hardware within the next 12 months

And because of this Nintendo has decided to delay the next Switch to 2026

 

[Hajeman]

Due to the slightly disappointing hardware sales and record Q2 software sales the tie ratio this quarter was an insane 16.62
and pushes the Nintendo Switch over a total tie ratio of 8.

So the latest Q2 is the best Q2 ever for Switch software with 54 Million games sold. That's why Nintendo still have an amazing net profit 230 Billion yen (up 34% from last year) for their 1st half FY2023 even their hardware is lower

 

[shoptroll]

Thats a lot of mario kart

And people keep wondering why they haven’t changed the Black Friday bundle in 5 years. The game still sells well that’s why.

1.72 million

Good numbers, people can stop with the hand wringing now.

Splatoon 3 still isn’t as good as it deserves to be in the west. Japan is doing some heavy lifting on that one

I don’t think it’ll happen (and I don’t necessarily want it to happen either) but I wonder if the game not being F2P like its contemporaries is part of what’s holding it back in the west. Yes it’s brazenly and intentionally Japanese AF (especially 3) but at the core the gameplay has a lot more in common with something like Overwatch which was $20 cheaper before going F2P and wasn’t locked to a single platform.

I don’t think Nintendo cares that much though. They’ve had multiple brands in the past take a while to break out in the West, and the whole “too anime” thing is being chipped away at across multiple mediums. I don’t think the series will ever do COD numbers in the West but it’ll grow with time.

 

[Skittzo]

It looks like the only way the Switch can really be the best-selling console of all time is if Drake comes out and is a Game Boy Color situation.

Pretty sure this is exactly what's going to happen.

 

[Cucufate]

Those software numbers... damn. 6 years in and people are still buying games at an amazing rate.

Thats a lot of mario kart

Obligatory

 

[Hajeman]

Assuming Nintendo hit their forecast exactly, then Switch will be at 126.65 million by the end of the fiscal year (March 31st, 2023). It would need to ship another ~29 million before being discontinued to hit DS/PS2 numbers.

It's not impossible, but it's not something to be taken for granted. Really depends how soon and how quickly Nintendo shift manufacturing capacity over to new hardware. I very much expect new hardware within the next 12 months, but that doesn't necessarily mean the first-gen Switch is going to vanish without a trace. But I think it's a tough ask at this point; obviously it really depends on when Nintendo launch new hardware and what sort of balance they strike between new and old Switch shipments.

Current 6 month FY2023 sold 6.7 Million Switch and they target 19 Million total. So they need to sold another 12.3 Million Switch from Oct 2022 - March 2023. Holiday quarter alone will sold almost 10 Million. So yes at the end of FY2023 they can sold 127 Million Switch

 

[Nautilus]

Also doesn’t look like Xenoblade is a growing franchise.

Of course it is.

XC 2 did 1.08 in the first month, and XC DE did about 1.38 million in the first month. Even if XC 3 tecnically had an extra month of sales, most sales surely came from the first month. But analyse the situation:

The best point of comparison is against XC 2, and against it XC 3 did about 70% better(probably closer to 50% due to having an extra month. Still great though). Even if XC 2 had the benefit of being in the Switch's first year, its long legs were almost exclusively due to being an excellent game. And considering that XC 3 is as well, if not more, received as 2, it stands to reason that XC 3 should have similar legs to XC 2. Not only that, but the game will remain on people's mind thanks to the expansion. As the previous Direct has shown, XC 3 will probably be shown in all directs, for any update the game gets, until the big story expansion gets released. So not only the holidays are comming, but XC 3 should get a big shout out from Nintendo in February, June and September(when directs usually happen) and people will be reminded that the game exists.

The next two quarters will be decisive in wether the game will have legs, but everything points to that it will.

And any comparison to XC DE, in the sense that sales may be more similar to that one, is wrong in my opinion. For the simple fact that DE is a remake of a game that already had a release on Wii, 3DS and Wii U. Not to mention to being "old news", and not being a new release, and all that comes with it. Between the 3 versions, XC 1 probably already had sold something really close to 2 millions(not including any emulation or pirating that people might have done) before XC DE released, and that obviously reflected on its legs.

So as of NOW, XC 3 grew significantly the franchise. All that is left to see is if its going to have legs, which I believe it will. I personally expect it to sell 500k this holiday, but we'll see.

 

[Chaotic Neutral]

Oooor if the Switch continues til past 2024.

Assuming Nintendo hit their forecast exactly, then Switch will be at 126.65 million by the end of the fiscal year (March 31st, 2023). It would need to ship another ~29 million before being discontinued to hit DS/PS2 numbers.

It's not impossible, but it's not something to be taken for granted. Really depends how soon and how quickly Nintendo shift manufacturing capacity over to new hardware. I very much expect new hardware within the next 12 months, but that doesn't necessarily mean the first-gen Switch is going to vanish without a trace. But I think it's a tough ask at this point; obviously it really depends on when Nintendo launch new hardware and what sort of balance they strike between new and old Switch shipments.

I know sales are still good (last 2021-2022 being the best year aside from 2020-2021), but momentum is definitely slowing. There was still a 5m drop between years and I'd expect a steeper drop off per year from now caeteris paribus. 2 years on from 2023 is probably the minimum to hit the PS2/DS mark and I don't see new hardware being 3 years out.

Tbh, I think at this point @Red Monster is right in his assessment that we're not seeing PS2 levels without Drake being classified a GBC style upgrade to the current Switch. That being said, that's exactly what I expect will happen.

 

[Koren Lesthe]

Well, Xenoblade 3 really got something meatier.

 

[ILikeFeet]

And people keep wondering why they haven’t changed the Black Friday bundle in 5 years. The game still sells well that’s why.


Good numbers, people can stop with the hand wringing now.


I don’t think it’ll happen (and I don’t necessarily want it to happen either) but I wonder if the game not being F2P like its contemporaries is part of what’s holding it back in the west. Yes it’s brazenly and intentionally Japanese AF (especially 3) but at the core the gameplay has a lot more in common with something like Overwatch which was $20 cheaper before going F2P and wasn’t locked to a single platform.

I don’t think Nintendo cares that much though. They’ve had multiple brands in the past take a while to break out in the West, and the whole “too anime” thing is being chipped away at across multiple mediums. I don’t think the series will ever do COD numbers in the West but it’ll grow with time.

Being very Japanese hasn't hurt any game yet. Besides, Splatoon is very contemporary so it resonates all over the world, stylistically.

The biggest thing I think hurt it was not being different enough. The multiplayer is great and unchanged, but outside of that, there's not too much change, I think

 

[Guaraná]

Any updates for Metroid Dread?

Metroid Dread? More like Metroid Dead, right??

 

[Mr Doggo]

Any updates for Metroid Dread?

dread will only get a update in two possible occasions

One is if the game crushes famiboards's hopes and manages to sell 1 million within 2022's fiscal year. Not impossible, but it is a very hard thing to do.

Second (this one thankfully does not need any sales achievement to happen) will be at CESA White Papers in early 2023.

I hope it managed to reach 3,5 million.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

The next quarter will have several really big milestones:

• Switch overtakes PS4
• Switch overtakes GameBoy + GBC
• Switch software totals overtake Wii and DS software totals
• Switch becomes the first Nintendo system to ship more than 1 billion software units (potentially)

Updates would only come from 1 million copies being shipped in the reporting period. Maybe Dread is doing well and ships 1 million in the current fiscal year, but we'll likely need to wait for updated numbers. I forget the name of the agency, but a Japanese firm has updated sales totals, which is how we have updated figures for titles like XBC 2 and Fire Emblem Three Houses.

Your thinking of the CESA White Book

I know sales are still good (last 2021-2022 being the best year aside from 2020-2021), but momentum is definitely slowing. There was still a 5m drop between years and I'd expect a steeper drop off per year from now caeteris paribus. 2 years on from 2023 is probably the minimum to hit the PS2/DS mark and I don't see new hardware being 3 years out.

Tbh, I think at this point @Red Monster is right in his assessment that we're not seeing PS2 levels without Drake being classified a GBC style upgrade to the current Switch. That being said, that's exactly what I expect will happen.

It’s hard to say how momentum is slowing since Nintendo is having issues just getting the things in store. Whether through a combination of procurement or shipping, the Switch has had a shortage for quite awhile now. I would say we’ll see closer towards the new fiscal year if those are being resolved.

 

[Marce-chan]

1.72 Million. Updated sales for the six month million sellers:

Splatoon sold almost 8M in less than one month.
SOLD 5 MILLION ONLY IN JAPAN IN LESS THAN ONE MONTH!!!
Incredible!!!

 

[Weebos]

Damn, Sword and Shield sold another 870K? The legs on this beast with two newer Pokemon games available lol.

 

[Caviar]

• Pokémon Sword/Shield - 25.37M (+870K)

It amuses me every time I see it. The legs on this game are phenomenal by any standards, especially for a JRPG, especially for a Pokemon game. It's basically Breath of the Wild tier legs at his point. It was only barely outsold this quarter by Arceus, a much newer game, in a season when the direct main-series successor looms close.

 

[shoptroll]

Being very Japanese hasn't hurt any game yet. Besides, Splatoon is very contemporary so it resonates all over the world, stylistically.

Right, and anime is increasing in popularity among "the youth" (which we're seeing borne out in things like Netflix's programming shifting) so it's really not a mark against the game. It's effectively ahead of the curve.

The biggest thing I think hurt it was not being different enough. The multiplayer is great and unchanged, but outside of that, there's not too much change, I think

But that doesn't seem to hurt COD year after year, and plenty of people seemed to have checked out OW2 and aren't sick of Fortnite or League or Dota yet.

The point I was trying to make was that it's an entry in a very saturated market and there's a lot of entrenchment you have to break through. I don't know the popularity of the competition in Japan but that might explain why it found a fertile ground to grow in vs. ROW which is a much much larger market.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Right, and anime is increasing in popularity among "the youth" (which we're seeing borne out in things like Netflix's programming shifting) so it's really not a mark against the game. It's effectively ahead of the curve.


But that doesn't seem to hurt COD year after year, and plenty of people seemed to have checked out OW2 and aren't sick of Fortnite or League or Dota yet.

The point I was trying to make was that it's an entry in a very saturated market and there's a lot of entrenchment you have to break through. I don't know the popularity of the competition in Japan but that might explain why it found a fertile ground to grow in vs. ROW which is a much much larger market.

I think what helps CoD is that it has lots of marketable bombastic moments. not to mention the single player does change things up, especially with MW2. and I'm not talking about multiplayer, I specifically called that out as not being the problem

 

[Angel Whispers]

Metroid: Dread will get updated when Balan Wonderworld: Remastered releases on the next Switch.

 

[Luminoth9090]

Although sell-in (sold to retailers) numbers are down 580k year on year the sell-through (sold to consumers) is practically the same which means either they overshipped last year or they can't produce enough to satisfy demand this year, it is probably a bit of both.

Surprised their financials are higher than last years Q2, but most are from foreign exchange gains and we didn't have any notable big releases in last years Q2.

 

[Luminoth9090]

Title	Japan	Overseas	Global	JP/Global	Data as of
Splatoon	1.79M	3.16M	4.95M	36.2%	Dec 2020
Splatoon 2	5.11M	8.19M	13.30M	38.4%	Mar 2022
Splatoon 3	5.01M	2.89M	7.90M	63.4%	Sep 2022

Splatoon 3 has almost matched Japanese lifetime shipments of Splatoon 2 in one quarter and it also has a ridiculous Japan to global ratio of 63.4%. It should change over the next quarter though because overseas regions will not be as frontloaded as Japan.