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StarTopic [Spoilers Allowed] Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST8| Press Your (Nintendo Direct) Luck! [Read Staff Post]

Which heavily rumored "it's absolutely gonna show up this time" game are we NOT going to see?


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If it releases within the current FY, they will have to acknowledge in May, before or at the time where they hold their briefing.
I see that logic, however I just have the impression that Nintendo is not in a rush. I believe new hardware was decided to be released in 2025 to make space for Swich 1 to die graciously, as it is still selling too well. Thus my guess is they'll have this calender year Switch 1 only with no mention of new hardware.
 
Ultimately, it's on everyone themselves to believe things or not. And it's on everyone's own if they allow to allow this stuff to get too serious.

So, instead of you apologizing, i'd recommend everyone who's angry at things changing / being wrong to step back from the internet for a while, and definitely not giving anyone who shares info a hard time.
So you say all Nintendo fans should leave the internet?

Well, more time for games, I guess…
 
I see that logic, however I just have the impression that Nintendo is not in a rush. I believe new hardware was decided to be released in 2025 to make space for Swich 1 to die graciously, as it is still selling too well. Thus my guess is they'll have this calender year Switch 1 only with no mention of new hardware.

There's a direct quote from Furukawa basically saying "This is not how it works".

So you say all Nintendo fans should leave the internet?

Well, more time for games, I guess…

Yes, and buy Unicorn Overlord while you're at it.
 
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but what about YEARLY sales 🫵🏼🤨
Furukawa said:
We encourage
you to exercise good judgment based on the information we provide on our official websites
and social media accounts. It takes a long time and thorough planning to get ready for new
hardware, and those plans are not impacted by whatever the latest business conditions might
be.
 
I fear it will be an Autumn release :p

Quick question, with Nintendo being secretive and how quite it has been, can we expect the switch 2 announcement this summer, or would it be more plausible if they did the same thing with the switch and announce it in ocktober.

Lastly thank you for your honesty and great response and not leaving us at the dark for the remaining month, it's highly appreciated.
If I were a Nintendo executive, and the delay is coincidentally giving me the option of replicating the original Switch's launch strategy, then I would replicate that. That is, assuming the reason the delay happened has been dealt with. At this stage of the successor's release, I would comfortably wait until the thing that caused the delay is 100% deal with, be it hardware, software (video game and/or OS), manufacturing or distribution related.
Honestly, right now, I have no idea. I'm getting conflicting info all around, which makes me think no one outside Nintendo HQ knows for sure at this point.
Completely random question:
In your experience dealing with Nintendo leaks, has it always been this hard to get info out of them, or have they tightened up during these recent years?
I am genuinely curious with Nintendo, seeing as how it's the only one of the big three that has a tight control over what leaks (granted, we knew of the TOTK OLED Switch a lot of months ago, but that was kinda like a time bomb that was gonna explode anyways).

May is not when their shareholders meeting happens, May 7th is their Annual Fiscal Year Report, they'll also share their projections for the current Fiscal Year, which ends in March 2025, as such, if a new gen is releasing in March and they expect to sell, say, 5-8m hardware in a month, it'd be in their projections and that's not something you can hide. They'll also will be paying the manufacturing, storage and shipping of the new system which would probably appear in their projections in some way.

Nintendo is, allegedly, preparing to ship over 10m units of the system this FY. Mochizuki might have gotten the date wrong, but it's still in this FY even if it launches in March 2025. You can't exactly hide the impact of producing, shipping and selling 10m units of unknown hardware in a single month or even through 2-3 months.



This is why I believe that they will acknowledge the system in May 7, even if they don't say it's name, even if they don't mention any special new features, even if they don't mention any specific games being prepared for it. They might just send a memo that states it'll happen and to wait for further information at a later date which, seeing as there is probably no General Direct until late June for the rest of the Switch's schedule for the year, will probably be either in September or October (they could replicate the Switch teaser to launch plan).

I think they might also want to avoid hardware leaks from manufacturing, so if that starts in July or August, they might just come clean and show the new hardware to us, so that they can show it in the best light possible and control the narrative, unlike what happened with the Switch, which leaked through Eurogamer in late July 2016, thus the possibility of them not waiting until September or October to show it to us is not 0%.


Hypothetically, can't Nintendo start the Fiscal Year with just projections of the Switch, and then later the year they revise it to include the successor's projections and reveal it then?

"latest business conditions"

ambiguous andy
I was gonna reply against what Furukawa said, but this is the company that comfortably skipped on Holiday 2016 for the sake of giving the Switch a proper launch in March, of all months.

So yes, Nintendo's approach to new generation releases is independent of current business performance.
 
I was gonna reply against what Furukawa said, but this is the company that comfortably skipped on Holiday 2016 for the sake of giving the Switch a proper launch in March, of all months.

So yes, Nintendo's approach to new generation releases is independent of current business performance.
Well they also has NES Classic for holiday 2016. Honestly it's for the best because WOW would that be a dangerous combo for the holiday season.
 
Is there a precedent for Nintendo Direct in June announcing a game coming out in July?

Another question that has little to do with: where does this somewhat annoying trend to constantly use the notion of 'copium' that I see everywhere in online conversations come from?

With LM2 releasing at the end of June they could skip a retail release in July and maybe fill the gap with some minor eshop release (or Hagi Port only digital at launch like Pikmin 1+2).
 
So we’re just gonna get Paper Mario trailers all the way up to its release. I’m still hoping for some new story content…no high hopes
 
Is there a precedent for Nintendo Direct in June announcing a game coming out in July?
In terms of first-party stuff that has a physical and digital release, no, and Nintendo have never skipped July for a combined physical/digital release in all the years Switch has been available:

2017 - Splatoon 2
2018 - Captain Toad (plus Octopath Traveler outside Japan)
2019 - Fire Emblem Three Houses
2020 - Paper Mario: the Origami King
2021 - Skyward Sword HD
2022 - Xenoblade Chronicles 3
2023 - Pikmin 4

There've been some pretty notable releases there over the years, and given by late July usually it's the start of holiday/vacation time for many countries Nintendo operate in, it's not surprising they launch something to sell into that summer break. It should be noted that titles in June don't preclude a July title; 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 all had Mario titles launch in June before another game in July, for example. Last year, Everybody 1-2 Switch snuck out right at the end of June, so Luigi's Mansion 2 launching in June doesn't really prevent Nintendo doing anything in July. To me, the lack of a July game presently is a little odd; it's been a firm fixture throughout the entire Switch era whereas other months (August, December, January and April, for example) haven't been constant fixtures on the Switch release calendar.

If the software situation really is difficult for them because of a hardware delay, then skipping July might make a degree of sense: they can focus on selling their large library of Mario titles and do some summer discounting, and maybe ramp up with some NSO titles. An early June Direct could date a game for August - perhaps a July game is pushed back by a month or so to pace out Nintendo's software. Alternatively there's a 'casual' title incoming which doesn't need a Direct spot and will get a summer launch out of the blue, like Everybody 1-2 Switch last year or Game Builder Garage in 2021.
 
In terms of first-party stuff that has a physical and digital release, no, and Nintendo have never skipped July for a combined physical/digital release in all the years Switch has been available:

2017 - Splatoon 2
2018 - Captain Toad (plus Octopath Traveler outside Japan)
2019 - Fire Emblem Three Houses
2020 - Paper Mario: the Origami King
2021 - Skyward Sword HD
2022 - Xenoblade Chronicles 3
2023 - Pikmin 4

There've been some pretty notable releases there over the years, and given by late July usually it's the start of holiday/vacation time for many countries Nintendo operate in, it's not surprising they launch something to sell into that summer break. It should be noted that titles in June don't preclude a July title; 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 all had Mario titles launch in June before another game in July, for example. Last year, Everybody 1-2 Switch snuck out right at the end of June, so Luigi's Mansion 2 launching in June doesn't really prevent Nintendo doing anything in July. To me, the lack of a July game presently is a little odd; it's been a firm fixture throughout the entire Switch era whereas other months (August, December, January and April, for example) haven't been constant fixtures on the Switch release calendar.

If the software situation really is difficult for them because of a hardware delay, then skipping July might make a degree of sense: they can focus on selling their large library of Mario titles and do some summer discounting, and maybe ramp up with some NSO titles. An early June Direct could date a game for August - perhaps a July game is pushed back by a month or so to pace out Nintendo's software. Alternatively there's a 'casual' title incoming which doesn't need a Direct spot and will get a summer launch out of the blue, like Everybody 1-2 Switch last year or Game Builder Garage in 2021.
I think that the julio game will be the fire emblem 4 remake.
 
Except outside the pandemic, this isn't how Nintendo operate. Even Endless Ocean Luminous got a spot in the Partner Showcase rather than being announced out of the blue (though, forgive the pun, out of the blue would've been very appropriate in this case).
Then the third option, because i think that june it's reserved for the Switch 2 reveal.
 
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Except outside the pandemic, this isn't how Nintendo operate. Even Endless Ocean Luminous got a spot in the Partner Showcase rather than being announced out of the blue (though, forgive the pun, out of the blue would've been very appropriate in this case).
wasn't Everybody 1-2 Switch announced in a tweet? And Ring Fit was also I think a separate announcement outside of a direct

If they've got something for that slot that doesn't mesh with the usual "core gamer" branding and has more of that blue ocean "non-gamer" appeal, I could see it getting a twitter/youtube announcement
 
I don’t think we’re going to see anything special in May either - perhaps an official acknowledgment of the next console, but no actual trailers or detailed info of new hardware or new software (Switch 1 or 2). And when we do finally get a new Direct, I’m expecting the content to be mostly ports and remakes - which to me personally is fine, but important for everyone to keep expectations in check with a new console not super far away.

I really didn’t think Nintendo would wait a whole nine months in between General Directs, but it’s looking like the case. June almost certainly has to be it. Perhaps a console reveal will come in the fall, but I’m still thinking one final Switch-dedicated Direct. As for what’s in it, I’m thinking the FE remake, a casual Mario game or two, something Zelda related (I’m personally still hoping for WW and / or TP, but not opposed to several other options), maybe some DLC, and a couple other ports. I’d love to say Metroid Prime 2 / 3 / 4, but who knows anymore about that one. I’d love it if Luigi’s Mansion 1 could make it. I’m saying no dice on F-Zero GX; I don’t think it was confirmed that 99 was the alternative amid the rumors, but it seems more likely to me than both having been in development. Star Fox Assault and Kid Icarus Uprising are fun rumored ports as well, but I don’t think either have much likelihood.
 
wasn't Everybody 1-2 Switch announced in a tweet? And Ring Fit was also I think a separate announcement outside of a direct

If they've got something for that slot that doesn't mesh with the usual "core gamer" branding and has more of that blue ocean "non-gamer" appeal, I could see it getting a twitter/youtube announcement
Yeah I agree. That's what I mentioned in my original post.
 
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May is not when their shareholders meeting happens, May 7th is their Annual Fiscal Year Report, they'll also share their projections for the current Fiscal Year, which ends in March 2025, as such, if a new gen is releasing in March and they expect to sell, say, 5-8m hardware in a month, it'd be in their projections and that's not something you can hide.
Ik the rumours are Q1, but wouldn't they be able to get away with no official announcement for wayyyyyy longer if they just... released it in April? Outside of the current fiscal year? That'd be a good way to keep things under wraps just a liiiiittle longer and oh, I dunno, stop a vague statement from overshadowing the TWO major releases planned for the month?

There's probably a damn good reason the system is launching at the end of the fiscal, but I'm no businessman, so I have no clue why
 
how long do you believe Nintendo will intent to refuse to knowledge Switch sucessor launch in year Y? Nintendo cant keep us/it investor in the dark forever, one day, they liking or not, will have to knowledge Switch sucessor existence
I think the next investor meeting they will tell the investors that the switch successor does infact exist and they will tell them a launch window for it. Or at least have an official announcement before that investor meeting. Investors will most likely be asking about it nonstop
 
I’m losing hope for a june reveal of switch 2, I think that summer will pass without even a sniff of a switch 2 announcement. I’m not even expecting a mention next month. We’ll get a normal june direct and maybe a switch 2 announcement in September/october.
 
Is there a precedent for Nintendo Direct in June announcing a game coming out in July?
Nah, they've never been that late in announcing a July first-party release. Splatoon 2 was announced in the January 2017 Switch presentation, and Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker, Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Skyward Sword HD, and Pikmin 4 were all announced or revealed as July games in February/March Directs.

That being said, Xenoblade Chronicles 3 was changed to be a July release in an April trailer drop, and Paper Mario: The Origami King was announced in a May trailer drop. While XC3 was a known title that was moved up the schedule, and 2020 didn't have a June Direct for obvious reasons, these two instances do show that Nintendo is willing to just drop an announcement for a July game outside of a Nintendo Direct.
 
I’m losing hope for a june reveal of switch 2, I think that summer will pass without even a sniff of a switch 2 announcement. I’m not even expecting a mention next month. We’ll get a normal june direct and maybe a switch 2 announcement in September/october.
If that is the case I'm very curious what they have to announce in June. Other than more remakes and remasters, of course.
 
If that is the case I'm very curious what they have to announce in June. Other than more remakes and remasters, of course.
Metroid prime 4 direct in the style of botw 2016 e3 direct, 2 days of just metroid prime 4 releasing this November
Big cope
 
One day we're going to get a direct from Nintendo without any heads up from insiders and we're going to ask why that happened. Oh I don't know maybe because they keep getting attacked for no reason? Idk just a thought
 
honestly it would surprise me if brazil is just wrong about everything. hes like zippo 2.0 he clearly knows absolutely nothing and i will never understand why people believe randos online with no proof... brazil is just backtrack andy....

Don't.

Be better.
 
well, not sure. We expected a Direct in Feb or April, chatter at GDC…

The only thing I’m really expecting is a Switch 2 reveal before the year is over. That’s all. Not even new game announcements before that tbh.
If Switch 2 is still lined up for the new FY, then they will have to allude to it to shareholders in the May meeting iirc. If it has slipped past March 2025, then we may not hear about it next month.
 
honestly it would surprise me if brazil is just wrong about everything. hes like zippo 2.0 he clearly knows absolutely nothing and i will never understand why people believe randos online with no proof... brazil is just backtrack andy....
He was the first to say the Switch 2 was delayed into 2025, something pretty much every major outlet immediately corroborated once that report broke
 
Seems pretty unsurprising considering the Switch 2 delay. Anything Nintendo would have been announcing or talking about at this point, would have very likely been intended for new hardware, either as exclusives or cross gen.
 
So if Nintendo reveals the July game via twitter, what game do you think it is? I’m thinking the hypothetical DK game, seeing as how July would be the third time in a row we get Mario related content:
• May - Paper Mario
• June - Luigi’s Mansion
• July - DK

Unless Lugi’s Mansion 2 is the technical July game because it releases June 27th
 
honestly it would surprise me if brazil is just wrong about everything. hes like zippo 2.0 he clearly knows absolutely nothing and i will never understand why people believe randos online with no proof... brazil is just backtrack andy....
the irony in you saying someone else "clearly knows absolutely nothing."
 
honestly it would surprise me if brazil is just wrong about everything. hes like zippo 2.0 he clearly knows absolutely nothing and i will never understand why people believe randos online with no proof... brazil is just backtrack andy....
wait then why would it surprise you
 
So if Nintendo reveals the July game via twitter, what game do you think it is? I’m thinking the hypothetical DK game, seeing as how July would be the third time in a row we get Mario related content:
• May - Paper Mario
• June - Luigi’s Mansion
• July - DK

Unless Lugi’s Mansion 2 is the technical July game because it releases June 27th
Or…

 
honestly it would surprise me if brazil is just wrong about everything. hes like zippo 2.0 he clearly knows absolutely nothing and i will never understand why people believe randos online with no proof... brazil is just backtrack andy....
yeah having the first Partner Showcase in almost two years slotting in where there's almost always a General Direct was just like the world's luckiest guess by some randos who know nothing
 
There are ways to express skepticism without outright attacking another member of this board.

The only tier-list of insiders is if they're decent people or if they're not. HGV or Z have been proven to be narcissistic manipulators that either outright lie or in the case of the latter outright talked shit about our community, thereby falling into the latter categorization. As for the former, insiders can still have a track record even if it isn't 100%, fuck it even doesn't have to be 10% accurate, but it's up to an individual to make their own judgement call of who/what they want to believe without slandering someone who shares information.

Trying to hurt others just because you felt burned by believing only makes you look like an ass.
 
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