Predictions So then, do you believe the next Smash roster will shrink or increase?

[Vantell]

There a third route between "reboot" and "Ultimate Deluxe".

Use Ultimate as a base. They can modify the moveset of some characters if they want, or outright remove them if they have for any reason. But the engine, the physics, most of the assets, are right from Ultimate. Since most of the works is already done, they could go all-in on side modes, with a massive adventure mode, the return of Smash Run and Break the Target, maybe even custom moves or custom costumes.

Instead of "the Mario Kart 8 DX of Smash Ultimate", the sequel would be more like "the Tears of the Kingdom of Smash Ultimate".

True, didn't think of that. Though, I can't imagine companies sayin no we don't want to be in the next Smash. Like you end up with everyone except X. That would be very surprising :'D. That said, Sakurai is for sure respected, but I do think someone else can grow in that role. The next Smash for Nintendo is probably also an important give it to the next generation type of deal. Which I honestly expected already with Ultimate.

 

[UnassumingLocalGuy]

This is... just how sequels work. People eventually move on to Street Fighter III, IV, V, VI rather than playing II forever.

Every Smash Bros up until now has had more content than the previous one. Nintendo can, and almost certainly will sooner or later, attempt to make a Smash Bros with less content than the last one. But I don’t see why it should be expected that everyone will buy it just because it’s newer.

Street Fighter II in fact outsold all of its sequels. And even Street Fighter II has only sold half as many copies as Smash Bros Ultimate. I don’t doubt that Nintendo could release a new Smash Bros with half as much content and prettier graphics and make it a modest success. Nor do I doubt that a spinoff of Smash Bros with radically different gameplay could be interesting and carve out its own fanbase.

But if they want to maintain sales on the level of Ultimate, they’ll have to keep the aspects of Ultimate that make it so appealing, not reject them. I don’t think they necessarily need to just build directly off Ultimate forever, or that they can never cut a character again, but I do think they’ll need to maintain a number of characters and stages at least equivalent to Smash 4 going forward.

 

[Galgavias]

There’s an equally big flaw in the suggestions for a reboot though. It might be unlikely to expect “Ultimate but more” to do similar numbers. But a game that plays like Ultimate except with a lot of people’s favorite characters missing or drastically altered, or a game that significantly changes the formula to make it less appealing to people who already like playing Smash Bros, is also unlikely to sell the same numbers when people can just keep playing Ultimate instead.

But an all new game will still sell much, much more than just pushing out Ultimate DLC, or an Ultimate Deluxe. That's the kicker here. None of these alternatives are going to earn Nintendo as much money as an all new Smash Bros.

Also, I think it's unlikely that there will be a large enough contingent of people upset at any potential cuts in the roster to make any serious dent in the series sales potential. I highly doubt there are many people who will refuse point blank to buy the next game if Pichu or Young Link are cut for instance. Fans will grumble sure, but unless Nintendo mess up in other areas, they'll likely come to terms with it.

 

[UnassumingLocalGuy]

But an all new game will still sell much, much more than just pushing out Ultimate DLC, or an Ultimate Deluxe. That's the kicker here. None of these alternatives are going to earn Nintendo as much money as an all new Smash Bros.

Also, I think it's unlikely that there will be a large enough contingent of people upset at any potential cuts in the roster to make any serious dent in the series sales potential. I highly doubt there are many people who will refuse point blank to buy the next game if Pichu or Young Link are cut for instance. Fans will grumble sure, but unless Nintendo mess up in other areas, they'll likely come to terms with it.

It depends. I agree that if they cut, say, 20ish characters but add 15 new ones to make up for it, then it won’t be a major issue. But then there are people who are seriously suggesting that the roster be cut down to Melee or even Smash 64 size, and I can’t see any amount of new modes or character overhauls making general audiences excited about that prospect.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Ultimate was only able to be so big because it was essentially Smash 4 #3. The next game will only be able to come close to Ultimate if it's Smash 4 #4, which I would not be excited about. Smash 4 started with about 50 characters, which is a HUGE amount for an all-new entry in any fighting series and a number I'd be more than happy to see they managed to keep up with at the next level of fidelity.