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Predictions So then, do you believe the next Smash roster will shrink or increase?

ShadowFox08 said:
Shrink, unless we'll get the deluxe treatment with Ultimate.

Sakurai himself said the roster will shrink.
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well... Just while back Sakurai apparantly also said:

“Sakurai confirms that he is semi-retired. He is 52 after all,” Sakurai felt that if he is just continuously making games full time, his life will be over before he realizes it.”

and now it almost seems like he is preparing to get back on development for the next Smash again.

I feel that with many earlier quotes they are his thoughts at that specific moment and they can change pretty quickly.

We have 89 fighters now... Watch and See Sakurai making 11 more because he just can't stop.
 
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Yavga said:
well... Just while back Sakurai apparantly also said:

“Sakurai confirms that he is semi-retired. He is 52 after all,” Sakurai felt that if he is just continuously making games full time, his life will be over before he realizes it.”

and now it almost seems like he is preparing to get back on development for the next Smash again.

I feel that with many earlier quotes they are his thoughts at that specific moment and they can change pretty quickly.

We have 89 fighters now... Watch and See Sakurai making 11 more because he just can't stop.
Click to expand...
I also remember around Brawl's release he said he likely wouldn't do third parties again and we know how that turned out.
 
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The next Smash may be an Ultimate enhanced port or something similar- if that happens, we’ll probably get roster growth.

Eventually, however, a series reimagining with a reduced base roster is inevitable. Maybe they’ll try selling it as a GAAS and/or a “platform” rather than a single game.
 
The roster will increase but not everyone will return. Sora is the most obvious cut. Dealing with Disney may not be worth the hassle.

Some of the Echo Fighters can be folded into the main fighters as an alt while others can be dropped entirely because the games they came from aren’t new(ish) anymore. For example, I can see Lucina being a Marth alt with Chrom getting the boot. This can ultimately “make room” for new fighters as well as other Echo Fighters from more recent games.

Personally, Echo Fighters aren’t particularly necessary. I get that they take fewer development resources to implement, but with a roster so large already, including them as alts/costumes is fine.

I still think most fighters will return, especially the third party ones. They don’t have to do any work yet get tons of exposure in one of the biggest releases every generation.
 
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This is just a hunch, but I kinda feel like "the next Smash" is gonna be the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe of the next gen.

Meaning they'll do the work to wrangle licensing and whatnot to figure out a re-release of Ultimate on Switch 2 (or even just do a next-gen patch, depending on backwards compatibility) with maybe some additions like a very small number of characters or stages, but otherwise let Smash take the generation off for the most part so they have even more time to figure out what the hell they're gonna do for the "real" follow-up to Ultimate.
 
Gingerbread Man said:
  • 2 from Microsoft (Banjo, Steve). This is where things get complicated; as soon as Spencer is promoted or leave the company, who knows what can happen. At the moment Microsoft is happy to cooperate with Nintendo, that's for sure;
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I don't think Phil Spencer can even get promoted anymore, he's already the CEO of Microsoft Gaming. He could of course take Satya Nadella's job as MSFT CEO.
Gingerbread Man said:
  • 1 from Disney (Sora). We all know Sora is very likely to get cut, a miracle only happens once.
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From what I gather from the interviews that happened after Sora's release, Disney were the ones who were like "sure, go ahead!" and it was Nomura who was picky about how Sora was included (for lack of better word, I'd care a lot too since Sora/KH is basically his child).

I think Sora has a decent chance of being in the next Smash's roster, since also being the most requested new fighter from the whole Smash ballot, even more than every single DLC character we've had up until this point. If Sakurai is still at the helm of the next game, he'll make the jump (imo)
ShadowFox08 said:
Shrink, unless we'll get the deluxe treatment with Ultimate.

Sakurai himself said the roster will shrink.
Click to expand...
Sakurai has stated it's unlikely that what happened with Ultimate will ever be replicated, that's not an outright denial of it happening.
 
BlackthornOrion said:
This is just a hunch, but I kinda feel like "the next Smash" is gonna be the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe of the next gen.

Meaning they'll do the work to wrangle licensing and whatnot to figure out a re-release of Ultimate on Switch 2 (or even just do a next-gen patch, depending on backwards compatibility) with maybe some additions like a very small number of characters or stages, but otherwise let Smash take the generation off for the most part so they have even more time to figure out what the hell they're gonna do for the "real" follow-up to Ultimate.
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I would like that. Just refine what is missing like how Mk8 deluxe added the missing battle mode.

I don't think the world needs a reinvention of Smash Bros... yet. But starting from scratch to do the same game type would be a giant waste to me.

And not needing to do all those characters from scratch again leaves more room for better single player, and online modes. Could bring back regular break the targets, Smash Run, trophies, and better lobby options.

Meanwhile use the time to find a suitable replacement for Sakurai, maybe using DLC fighters as a testing ground.
 
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Catsylvania said:
Seems to go against Sakurai’s MO.
  • Insisted against porting Melee to Wii.
  • Was given the choice to make Super Smash Bros. For Wii U or 3DS; decides to do both.
  • “Everyone is here.”
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Depends on what part of his MO you focus on. He expressed many times during the Smash 4 era especially that he does not enjoy making cuts, as every character has fans who will be disappointed by their exclusion; it's even why Dr. Mario was re-promoted from alt costume to seperate fighter during Smash 4's production, to retain his variable differences for his Melee fans. He also mentioned that all cut veterans performing well on the ballot is what gave the final push to do Everyone Is Here for the next installment. Most importantly, he has a habit of liking to prove himself wrong. He was talking about how Smash has already reached its limits in roster count before Smash 4 released; and then proceeded to raise the bar significantly over the two games after.

I don't necessarily think it needs to be branded as Ultimate Deluxe even if it continues to build off it though. Ultimate's internal name is Cross2; Cross being Smash 4; and clearly used the Wii U version as a base.
 
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Heron said:
I think the next version will build on Ultimate with new stages and modes. I think that's the consensus.
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I really don't think there's a consensus.

I think people want Ultimate Deluxe because the concept of losing so much with a title that starts over really sucks, and that has helped pushed some people in that direction, and/or in tow with seeing the other deluxe ports of late, but others are looking at the untenability of Smash continuing to expand, possibly factoring in Sakurai's warnings and the fact that Smash, typically, has not done what they did between 4 and Ultimate.

Personally I think it can go either way, but shrinking seems likelier. We've already been warned it will, and it will. If it doesn't next, certainly after that. But I think it will for the next game.

I also think part of the reason Ultimate ended up like it did was to supply the Switch with Smash quickly, and with a less frantic transition to the next console, the haste that birthed Ultimate just reusing 4 won't occur.
 
Things were very different when Melee was around. And for all intents and purposes, Sakurai was not very pleased with the product so it makes sense he thought he could do much more with a new engine, new console, and more time.

And yeah, for all of Brawl's faults. Subspace is a pretty big "new" thing along with all the new modes. Granted, the larger cast and all this new stuff did come at the cost of individual Break the Targets, but there's no denying much more was added than lost in the transition to Brawl. Arguably the bigger loss came witt Wii U/3DS due to the limitations of working on both games at the same time.

And following Ultimate, the main innovation has been squarely focused on characters over... everything else. Going with the Ult base does allow Sakurai to focus more on bringing the lost modes and charm of old Smash, which I think would be worth any $70 "upgrade". And if the DLC characters are in the base game, that is potentially new content for anyone who never purchased the DLC.

This is all hypothetically the only way I see us maintaining this upwards trend for one last game before the inevitable shrinkage comes.
 
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My guess/hope:

1. Smash Ultimate Complete for Redrakted. 0-5 new characters either at launch or as DLC, maybe like 1 or so, "Evil Ryu" style character at launch, maybe TOTK Link or Ganondorf. Maybe a 120fps mode if we are lucky who knows.

2. Many years later, the next Smash is actually a follow up to Ultimate, the same way all smash games have followed up the previous, and is not a reboot. Overall it will be a little more similar than Smash 4/Ultimate are, re-using many assets and code but still tweaking and improving.
Sakurai has expressed interest in continuing the franchise, and Bamco may still help. He probably would have some focus on finally setting up some "apprentices" he could feel comfortable leaving the series with, mostly out of necessity, so far little has come of this.

We lose about 7 characters due to licensing but get about 12 more (around the average for a new smash title). So a net gain on the already absurd roster. Then more DLC again since it prints money and that well is very deep. DLC may or may not include some lost characters coming back. Rollback netcode if we are lucky.
Main "gimmick" is something like a couple new specials per character with some restriction, maybe something like extra once per stock specials. Some updated movesets to reflect characters new games.
Maybe a new fun mode to differentiate it from prior entries. A "tag" mode could be good to help leverage the big roster. Maybe something like a renewed smash run.

3. They may treat the new smash as a "platform", selling characters/outfits/maps for many many years, even longer than Ultimate. (Imagine, "Mario Movie Donkey Kong" style stuff, the cross promotion potential is enormous).

4. An actual reboot way further down the line.
 
Mer.Saloon said:
I do expect the day the roster shrinks will be the most toxic day in Nintendo history.

Petty death threats and a lot of proclaiming the series is ruined by more than a few bad faith actors.
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There will be a lot of toxicity, but Nintendo can reduce it if they plan things properly.

1) Disclose that there will be cuts at the beginning, at the same time you're showing the flashy new game with popular new additions. This will offset the backlash at the time, and orient people to the idea.
2) Don't show all the base vets at the beginning. Everyone is Here was great, but it was great partly because it was everyone. That would immediately kill hope and the dissonance will cause backlash.
3) Within the presentation that reveals the final characters in base, reveal a veteran as DLC. This will keep peoples' hope going.
4) This is for characters in general, but give a lot of warning about how much DLC we'll receive (in waves, at least), and when it's ending.
5) Try to have the final character be very popular, like Sora was.

Basically just present bad news in tandem with things to distract the fanbase, be as candid as possible without giving things away, and use time to acclimate the fanbase, avoid pulling the rug out.

Of course this won't eliminate shitheads, but it's probably the best strategy for inevitable cuts.
 
Shrink because certain 3rd parties won't be back. After that I am not sure. I know nothing about game development.
 
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I would hope it shrinks, I'd rather have unique break the target levels and actual trophies than just have a bigger roster number.
 
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Rooster said:
There will be a lot of toxicity, but Nintendo can reduce it if they plan things properly.

1) Disclose that there will be cuts at the beginning, at the same time you're showing the flashy new game with popular new additions. This will offset the backlash at the time, and orient people to the idea.
2) Don't show all the base vets at the beginning. Everyone is Here was great, but it was great partly because it was everyone. That would immediately kill hope and the dissonance will cause backlash.
3) Within the presentation that reveals the final characters in base, reveal a veteran as DLC. This will keep peoples' hope going.
4) This is for characters in general, but give a lot of warning about how much DLC we'll receive (in waves, at least), and when it's ending.
5) Try to have the final character be very popular, like Sora was.

Basically just present bad news in tandem with things to distract the fanbase, be as candid as possible without giving things away, and use time to acclimate the fanbase, avoid pulling the rug out.

Of course this won't eliminate shitheads, but it's probably the best strategy for inevitable cuts.
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I am skeptical of the internet reasoning regarding it. Smash has become so intertwined with its roster following Smash 4 gutting so much of everything worthwhile outside of it. I feel itd take some serious convincing that it would be worth losing anything.
 
despite a lot of people not wanting this, Sakurai will problaby shrink the roster for the next game of the franchise, to like 40/50 characters of the current roster we have right now, with a smaller roster this will give the oportunity for Sakurai to finaly give the veterans characters a more subtancial change in it move set(Mario move set is quite the same since SMB64).
 
Rooster said:
There will be a lot of toxicity, but Nintendo can reduce it if they plan things properly.

1) Disclose that there will be cuts at the beginning, at the same time you're showing the flashy new game with popular new additions. This will offset the backlash at the time, and orient people to the idea.
2) Don't show all the base vets at the beginning. Everyone is Here was great, but it was great partly because it was everyone. That would immediately kill hope and the dissonance will cause backlash.
3) Within the presentation that reveals the final characters in base, reveal a veteran as DLC. This will keep peoples' hope going.
4) This is for characters in general, but give a lot of warning about how much DLC we'll receive (in waves, at least), and when it's ending.
5) Try to have the final character be very popular, like Sora was.

Basically just present bad news in tandem with things to distract the fanbase, be as candid as possible without giving things away, and use time to acclimate the fanbase, avoid pulling the rug out.

Of course this won't eliminate shitheads, but it's probably the best strategy for inevitable cuts.
Click to expand...
everyone character is a favorite, there will be fans angry/frustated, why cant i play with Banjo Kazooie or this character on the next Super Smash Bros game, is a inavibilty that Sakurai/Nintendo would have to face, if they decide to cut like 10/15 characters for SMBU roster, to focus on better online, mode and so on, so i preparing myself for the possibilty of not playing with this characters in the next Super Smash Bros game.
 
Giancarlo said:
despite a lot of people not wanting this, Sakurai will problaby shrink the roster for the next game of the franchise, to like 40/50 characters of the current roster we have right now, with a smaller roster this will give the oportunity for Sakurai to finaly give the veterans characters a more subtancial change in it move set(Mario move set is quite the same since SMB64).
Click to expand...
I do not think for one minute the majority of Smash's players really care about the move sets that much to the point where 40 cuts gets justified by "Look how we redid Mario/Samus/Link" etc. It's not like characters haven't got major reworks between games with more fighters too. Pit is wildly different to how he debuted in Brawl, many clones like Falco, Luigi, et. al. got further and further de-cloned to the point where they're unrecognizable from their first appearance, solo Charizard and Pokemon Trainer Charizard are pretty different in how they actually play, etc.

Just rework Mario, Samus, and Donkey Kong if you need to as others have been slowly updated and redeveloped, you don't have to justify that with a massive set of cuts. I think the truth is rather that Sakurai never saw anything wrong with those movesets and was happy to keep them mostly intact rather than he never had the resources to spare to update them. Sakurai typically doesn't really break up how his non clone veterans play and has been particularly averse to overhauls for some specific characters it seems.
 
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Mer.Saloon said:
I am skeptical of the internet reasoning regarding it. Smash has become so intertwined with its roster following Smash 4 gutting so much of everything worthwhile outside of it. I feel itd take some serious convincing that it would be worth losing anything.
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Yes people will be upset, but the current trajectory is untenable, so it's going to happen sooner or later anyway.

The best you can do is devise a rollout tailored to mitigating backlash (and causing hype). You start with a trailer to the new game, everyone is very hype. You show new stages, maybe new moves, a new character. Everyone is very hype. At some point in the presentation, Sakurai says that not all characters will return. No further details about it (because in reality, it will be a lot of them). Then you immediately show more hype things and end with another new character.

People will be aware of and not psyched about the prospect of cuts, but it's still in the abstract, and has been cushioned by all that other stuff. When a new Smash game gets revealed, and you have Sakurai briefly saying not all characters will return, the lead is still going to be the new Smash game and whichever characters they did show.

Many Smash fans typically have the ill-founded but idealistic belief that the character they want will probably make it. Simply knowing there's cuts won't kill the hope in their character returning (unless you support, like... Pichu or Young Link or something). And at that point you stagger the reveals like normal, and when you get to the end of base, to prevent people from thinking it's over for their character, you again distract with DLC. Show a veteran, and you can defer a lot of negativity because people will keep hope alive. They know there will probably be lots of DLC (and there probably will be), so maybe their vet wasn't in base, but they'll still believe in them. Effectively you are stringing them along, but it's with the purpose to avoid a meltdown.

You also have to provide the idea of when the end is arriving well in advance, so that people can calibrate their expectations. Of course all that deferred hope won't have died, but in the lead up to the end, when there are fewer and fewer spots remaining, and their character maybe doesn't seem so likely anymore, drawing out that realization hopefully robs the harsh intensity the reaction of it being sprung on them would elicit.

And the last character revealed is destined to be in the unenvious position of being the personification of crushed remnants of hopes for someone else, so it's best to make that character at least one the fanbase likes. There will be negativity, it's inevitable, but hopefully it's been tempered somewhat.

Ideally you also bring back as many fan-favorite vets as you can. The problem will more be with the third-parties, since they can't all return, and they're big deals. That's why you also need to make the newcomers chosen... compelling. One silver lining of there being so many cuts is that, unlike when there are just a small handful, concentrating demand, the fanbase will diffuse and gravitate to their own characters, which will make the voices for specific ones wider but overall weaker. And again, people likely won't treat their character as cut until there's actual evidence behind it. Hope drives Smash speculation.

But the Smash fanbase has become very spoiled, so yeah, you'll get unsavory behavior at points. Tantrums will occur. But there will be more Smash, eventually there will be cuts, so... there's not much to be done about the toxicity other than try to create a plan that reduces it through distraction, selective candidness, and basically exposure therapy. Though sure, if they drop the ball and don't handle the rollout prudently, it could get very unpleasant.

Giancarlo said:
everyone character is a favorite, there will be fans angry/frustated, why cant i play with Banjo Kazooie or this character on the next Super Smash Bros game, is a inavibilty that Sakurai/Nintendo would have to face, if they decide to cut like 10/15 characters for SMBU roster, to focus on better online, mode and so on, so i preparing myself for the possibilty of not playing with this characters in the next Super Smash Bros game.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, that's not a realistic number of cuts. The game is either going to be Ultimate but more stuff, or them starting over. If they just keep using Ultimate, there's no reason to have any cuts, apart from the characters they weren't able to relicense. Which probably won't be many. If they rebuild the roster, there's gonna be a lot more than 10-15 cuts, because getting anywhere close to Ultimate's number isn't realistic from a time/resource perspective.

And yeah you'll never eliminate anger from the fanbase. But cuts are inevitable at some point. The best Nintendo can do is go in with a plan to minimize blowback as best as they are able. And the best we can do is go in knowing it's entirely plausible you lose a character you like.

We're incredibly lucky to have received all Smash has provided, but it's also made the fanbase very spoiled. Other fighting game fanbases are, generally, much more capable of taking cuts in stride, because there's a history of them being more frequent and comprehensive.
 
Almost every sequel is not a superset of what's available in previous games. If there's a backlash about there not being 100 characters, Nintendo's response should be to tell people to stop being stupid.
 
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The only real backlash is that Nintendo/Sakurai didn't include all the correct characters and stages and such (which just so happens to be exactly the ones I want)
 
Pulling a Mario Kart 8 is my prediction. As it could add new characters,items and stages. With an expanded story mode then be enough. Throw in higher fidelity assets and roll back netcode it's an easy upgrade. Plus it would allow Sakurai to not have to work himself to death.
 
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Even if we lose specific characters, I think the roster will get larger in the next game specifically. Smash is a game about excess and after selling 30 million copies they aren’t ever going to go “well we could get by with less.” We’ll probably hit or cross 100 characters by the time it is done.
 
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If I were Nintendo, here's how I'd handle the situation if there are going to be significant cuts to try and alleviate hostility:
  • Provide a teaser animation when the Switch 2 is revealed, announcing that a new Smash is in development, similar to the Inkling animation revealing Smash Ultimate was a thing.
  • Cut to Sakurai in his studio. After a couple of 'well here we go again' comments, he explains that this new Smash will be a re-boot of sorts, as it just wasn't feasible to bring back everyone from Ultimate
  • Announce a second Smash Ballot, this one allowing people to pick both new characters and their veteran favourites (maybe stretching to stages as well). State that they will use the result to influence their decisions on which characters make the cut, primarily when it comes to post launch content
  • Make it clear there that said post launch content will be significant, lasting a good number of years, and that additional fighters will be a mix of veterans who missed the initial cut and newcomers
Honesty and openness, and giving people the chance to have their voices heard, will go a decent way to silencing many of the dissenting voice. Nintendo probably know which characters fans will want anyway thanks to player data, but the act of simply asking would go a long way (plus, give Nintendo even more juicy marketing data).
 
It will shrink at release and then it will exceed ultimate roster with Dlc.
 
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It can only shrink. It must have been a nightmare to have all these deals, negotiations and law shit in order to get all the third party chars.

There might/will/should be some 3rd party chars returning, though. Can't see Sega or Konami, for example, being difficult to deal with when it comes to Sonic and the Belmonts in Smash.
 
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It will increase eternally until every single videogame character in history is represented. By then, Sakurai will have turned himself into a omniscient being that can work on the games 24 hours a day.

I actually think it will shrink, but not by much. However, I'm not discounting the possibility above.
 
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What can be done to make a new Smash that will:

  • Feel like a new experience
  • Not feel like a downscale of Smash Ultimate
  • Still Has a sizable (read: "at least on par with Ultimate") roster of both stages and characters
  • Is not just a remaster or recut of the earlier games.

I think the only thing possible would be to make a complete new engine, a fighting game with a whole different feeling than previous entries.

I am leaning more towards other fighting games like Tekken, Soul Calibur or Street Fighter. But changing a game this way would make it lose the spirit of the previous entries but it would be much easier this way to explain bigger cuts to the roster and start out fresh again with the original 12 or so.

Whatever Sakurai may come up with it feels like a gargantuan task to me to not disapoint. Whatever he is going to to he will inevitably upset a lot of fans that joined solely for the hype wagon of "which new character will he make now?"

It also doesn't really help that the entire Videogame related Internet becomes a really weird place to be with developers, influencers/journalists and players all banding together to hype up and speculate about the new characters every time a new Smash game is announced.

This is... a small silver lining for the 'best' outcome though, which is because Smash has become the de facto for representation of all the most popular characters there are in videogames one way or another. Whether that is because of nostalgia, sales, or flavor of the day.

Smash has a gained a reputation which makes it not just a neccesary game for Nintendo, but for all other publishers as well. them picking the fruits of the marketing campaign that is Smash.

So maybe all these licenses aren't that expensive to prolong? Maybe 3rd parties might throw Sakurai a bone just because that games' inclusion gives their games a sizable boost as well? or is this not how "business" works?

edit: Before people say that I should Google some more... I actually did my homework and found out how much Sora cost them to get the license for:

sora.png
 
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Next Smash should be a rerelease of Ultimate, like Mario Kart 8, two more fighters passes, maybe with a bit more content than before due to less dev time on the main game, if any.

Whenever there's a reboot, smaller for sure.
 
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Unfortunately there's a big flaw in the 'just rerelease Ultimate with more stuff' plan, which is that in all likelihood Ultimate will still be playable on the Switch 2. This isn't a Mario Kart 8 Deluxe situation where it was a game that was going to be left behind on poor selling hardware. Barring some bizarre decisions from Nintendo, people will still be able to play Ultimate for years to come, and they aren't going to be willing to pay top dollar for the same game but with a few more characters.

'Well then just do DLC' you answer. But not only is DLC expensive, it's also a resource sink that acts as a significant opportunity cost. Ultimate has sold 30 million copies so far, and Nintendo is going to want a brand new game to do similar numbers. DLC for the (relatively speaking) small number of faithful would provide nowhere near the same level of income. At some point Nintendo's going to want a brand new Smash to sell us. If you want evidence this is the route they'll take, look at Splatoon.

And then if, even after all that, Smash Ultimate Deluxe does become a thing, what happens in another 5-6 years? Do we get a Smash Ultimate Deluxerer? At some point Nintendo is going to have to cut the cord. No game can just keep on going in perpituity.
 
The roster will rise if they go with Ultimate Deluxe and shrink if they do a soft reboot.

I am excited about the reboot idea - mainly to see new moves from older characters.
 
Galgavias said:
Unfortunately there's a big flaw in the 'just rerelease Ultimate with more stuff' plan, which is that in all likelihood Ultimate will still be playable on the Switch 2. This isn't a Mario Kart 8 Deluxe situation where it was a game that was going to be left behind on poor selling hardware. Barring some bizarre decisions from Nintendo, people will still be able to play Ultimate for years to come, and they aren't going to be willing to pay top dollar for the same game but with a few more characters.

'Well then just do DLC' you answer. But not only is DLC expensive, it's also a resource sink that acts as a significant opportunity cost. Ultimate has sold 30 million copies so far, and Nintendo is going to want a brand new game to do similar numbers. DLC for the (relatively speaking) small number of faithful would provide nowhere near the same level of income. At some point Nintendo's going to want a brand new Smash to sell us. If you want evidence this is the route they'll take, look at Splatoon.

And then if, even after all that, Smash Ultimate Deluxe does become a thing, what happens in another 5-6 years? Do we get a Smash Ultimate Deluxerer? At some point Nintendo is going to have to cut the cord. No game can just keep on going in perpituity.
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Vantell said:
The roster will rise if they go with Ultimate Deluxe and shrink if they do a soft reboot.

I am excited about the reboot idea - mainly to see new moves from older characters.
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There a third route between "reboot" and "Ultimate Deluxe".

Use Ultimate as a base. They can modify the moveset of some characters if they want, or outright remove them if they have for any reason. But the engine, the physics, most of the assets, are right from Ultimate. Since most of the works is already done, they could go all-in on side modes, with a massive adventure mode, the return of Smash Run and Break the Target, maybe even custom moves or custom costumes.

Instead of "the Mario Kart 8 DX of Smash Ultimate", the sequel would be more like "the Tears of the Kingdom of Smash Ultimate".
 
My current prediction is that Super Smash Bros Ultimate will be repacked with new characters and stages for Drake(I think Geno, one of the TotK companions, maybe Sylux and a third party character, doomslayer maybe) which will come as paid DLC for people that own the game on Switch. Another Fighters pass will be announced with 6 characters coming in 2025-2026. A story expansion will be released eventually (like MK11 Aftermath).
The repackage can't be a MK8 DX like re-release because there's like 50$ worthy of DLC in the two passes, with a good chunk of them being third party and maybe having royalties deals. There's no way they make a package with all DLC for 70$.

The other possibility is they make a sequel to Ultimate like Ultimate was to Wii U/3DS. Everyone is Here Again became impossible due to the third party characters(namely Hero, Steve, Sephiroth and God forbid Sora). We know from reliable rumors that leaked the game in detail months before reveal that Cloud was a nightmare to return.

And again, they'll have to make another actual AAA effort to make a new game bigger than Ultimate. And said game wouldn't be released until like 2028 at the earliest.

I think they can make several cuts from Ultimate (namely all the non-first party DLC, Cloud, some echoes and semi-clones, etc) and make up for that with new characters. The Square characters can be gone in the base roster and return in DLC, and we can have like Resident Evil and Monster Hunter or something in the base roster. In the end it can have the same amount of characters or even more, just like 4 has way more characters than Brawl despite having cut a lot of them.

Well I expect them to just release a patch for Ultimate that makes it 4K/RT compatible, have it repacked with a couple of new characters and stages for 70$ and have said characters and stages as DLC for those that already own the game, announce a new Fighters Pass and then another one and have Ultimate for Drake be like Mario Kart 8 was for Switch. Then let everyone figure out how to make something that instead of being bigger aims for being very different or having a new twist, a reboot, to come like cross gen with Switch 3. For that I expect a waaaayyy smaller roster, where they cut clones and semi clones, reduce Pokémon, Fire Emblem and Mario representation to just the most important and add new characters from those franchises, add new Zelda reps, bring in eye popping third party guests, etc.
 
Other than SE all 3rd parties would be on board and I feel after the sales that came out so would SE judging by sephiroth, Steve was east and it seems nitnedo got banjo as a side to Steve in a deal with Microsoft and Disney, Konami, sega and SNK also seem fully on board. I mean it makes sense smash ultimate has outsold the entire lifetime sales of every game in most of the series represented in smash. And considering that this game will only get a much larger budget 3rd parties aren’t the problem here, the problem is the insane amount of Balancing it would take to do 90-100 characters. To dev then all and to make sure they work with one another is an insane and absurd task that increases exponentially. At some point the roster is just bloated and smash ultimate is really pushing that line. Something like a base of 60 character with maybe 30 or so as dlc would be much easier to implement assuming a greater focus on dlc this time around. A lot of Nintendo characters are the ones I feel will be cut.
 
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Marce-chan said:
My current prediction is that Super Smash Bros Ultimate will be repacked with new characters and stages for Drake(I think Geno, one of the TotK companions, maybe Sylux and a third party character, doomslayer maybe) which will come as paid DLC for people that own the game on Switch. Another Fighters pass will be announced with 6 characters coming in 2025-2026. A story expansion will be released eventually (like MK11 Aftermath).
The repackage can't be a MK8 DX like re-release because there's like 50$ worthy of DLC in the two passes, with a good chunk of them being third party and maybe having royalties deals. There's no way they make a package with all DLC for 70$.

The other possibility is they make a sequel to Ultimate like Ultimate was to Wii U/3DS. Everyone is Here Again became impossible due to the third party characters(namely Hero, Steve, Sephiroth and God forbid Sora). We know from reliable rumors that leaked the game in detail months before reveal that Cloud was a nightmare to return.

And again, they'll have to make another actual AAA effort to make a new game bigger than Ultimate. And said game wouldn't be released until like 2028 at the earliest.

I think they can make several cuts from Ultimate (namely all the non-first party DLC, Cloud, some echoes and semi-clones, etc) and make up for that with new characters. The Square characters can be gone in the base roster and return in DLC, and we can have like Resident Evil and Monster Hunter or something in the base roster. In the end it can have the same amount of characters or even more, just like 4 has way more characters than Brawl despite having cut a lot of them.

Well I expect them to just release a patch for Ultimate that makes it 4K/RT compatible, have it repacked with a couple of new characters and stages for 70$ and have said characters and stages as DLC for those that already own the game, announce a new Fighters Pass and then another one and have Ultimate for Drake be like Mario Kart 8 was for Switch. Then let everyone figure out how to make something that instead of being bigger aims for being very different or having a new twist, a reboot, to come like cross gen with Switch 3. For that I expect a waaaayyy smaller roster, where they cut clones and semi clones, reduce Pokémon, Fire Emblem and Mario representation to just the most important and add new characters from those franchises, add new Zelda reps, bring in eye popping third party guests, etc.
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Just because the DLC is expensive doesn't mean it has to stay at that value. The costs of developing those fighters has to have long since paid off with all remaining being the licensing and royalties.
And the cost of a minimal $70 package followed by more DLC (paid ofc) seems like it would pay itself fast off the bat.

Granted, I can't see such a strategy paying off more than once before serious stagnation sets in.
 
Galgavias said:
Unfortunately there's a big flaw in the 'just rerelease Ultimate with more stuff' plan, which is that in all likelihood Ultimate will still be playable on the Switch 2. This isn't a Mario Kart 8 Deluxe situation where it was a game that was going to be left behind on poor selling hardware. Barring some bizarre decisions from Nintendo, people will still be able to play Ultimate for years to come, and they aren't going to be willing to pay top dollar for the same game but with a few more characters.

'Well then just do DLC' you answer. But not only is DLC expensive, it's also a resource sink that acts as a significant opportunity cost. Ultimate has sold 30 million copies so far, and Nintendo is going to want a brand new game to do similar numbers. DLC for the (relatively speaking) small number of faithful would provide nowhere near the same level of income. At some point Nintendo's going to want a brand new Smash to sell us. If you want evidence this is the route they'll take, look at Splatoon.

And then if, even after all that, Smash Ultimate Deluxe does become a thing, what happens in another 5-6 years? Do we get a Smash Ultimate Deluxerer? At some point Nintendo is going to have to cut the cord. No game can just keep on going in perpituity.
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There’s an equally big flaw in the suggestions for a reboot though. It might be unlikely to expect “Ultimate but more” to do similar numbers. But a game that plays like Ultimate except with a lot of people’s favorite characters missing or drastically altered, or a game that significantly changes the formula to make it less appealing to people who already like playing Smash Bros, is also unlikely to sell the same numbers when people can just keep playing Ultimate instead.
 
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Mer.Saloon said:
Just because the DLC is expensive doesn't mean it has to stay at that value. The costs of developing those fighters has to have long since paid off with all remaining being the licensing and royalties.
And the cost of a minimal $70 package followed by more DLC (paid ofc) seems like it would pay itself fast off the bat.

Granted, I can't see such a strategy paying off more than once before serious stagnation sets in.
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What I mean is that it's probably that at least the SE characters (but most likely all the third party characters) pay royalties, so a part of each dlc sold goes to the owner.

Emily knew about Ultimate and everyone is here but at first she said it was kind of a nightmare to get Cloud in, she said there was about to be almost no cuts if any at all, but Cloud made the situation even harder.

I can't even think how much they'd have to pay to license the amount of DLC characters that Ultimate has to include them in a package of a Deluxe version. And a Deluxe version/enhanced port instead of just repacking the vanilla game would be kind of a new game like MK8DX is, so they'd probably have to pay licenses again.

Don't get me wrong, I know Nintendo definitely can afford that and it would be worth it considering Ultimate sold 30m. It was probably their most expensive game ever and a true AAA effort, I think they won't throw it to waste.

I just think that using BC and going back to DLC development and selling a pass or two would be more cost effective than doing an actual remaster like MK8 got.
 
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I kinda disagree with the general notion there are only two options:
  • Deluxe version of Ultimate
  • Reboot
Natural for me is the 3rd option: just a normal iterative sequel, like every game in the series. Keep as much as possible and add new cool stuff. Both mechanics, modes, fighters and stages.

I personally hope they build a lot on Ultimate engine wise since it’s (imo) the by far best we’ve had so far in the series.
 
UnassumingLocalGuy said:
There’s an equally big flaw in the suggestions for a reboot though. It might be unlikely to expect “Ultimate but more” to do similar numbers. But a game that plays like Ultimate except with a lot of people’s favorite characters missing or drastically altered, or a game that significantly changes the formula to make it less appealing to people who already like playing Smash Bros, is also unlikely to sell the same numbers when people can just keep playing Ultimate instead.
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This is... just how sequels work. People eventually move on to Street Fighter III, IV, V, VI rather than playing II forever.
 
If it doesn't have Sakurai attached at all, it's 100% shrinking. Especially the bigger third party characters. To the extent, who knows. But everyone make peace with it now.

If he's in some type of consultant producer roll, then maybe you get back some of the bigger licensed characters. But you could make up for it with some new Nintendo characters.

If he is in, and it's truly just Ultimate & More, that would almost be...boring? Unless there was such a major hook.
 
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