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Sales Data "Results were in the range of their expectations" for Final Fantasy 16 sales, expensed all costs in FY24 Q1 so future sales will all be profits

It's really not that crazy

When they green lit FF16, they were likely hoping it would sell ~4 million units at launch (similar to what FF15 did on just PS4).

Then between ps5 stock issues, poor ps5 software sales in Japan, and lower preorder numbers globally, SE lowered their expectations to ~3 million.

The game sold ~3 million, which hit those revised expectations, but they're still disappointed that FF contracted from both FF7R (~3.5 mill at launch) and FF15 (~4 million on just ps4 at launch).

I'm kinda surprised FF7 Remake didn't do better either ... there were people who seriously thought FF7 Remake would destroy Animal Crossing in sales, lol.
 


Gibson has deleted original tweets and said this now:

Hope was not the right word. Sorry. The results were in the range of their expectations, feel the penetration of PS5 performance was quite good. (as they said before when announcing the 3m number).

Can you update your thread title if “hoped for more” was never said.
 
Square-Enix's stock price is taking a massive hit.
Overreaction perhaps? They are booking their FF16 development expenses right off the bat, are they not?
Should help boost subsequent quarters if so.

I really hope they don't give up on the Live a Live/Triangle Strategy type games to chase a buck... those are so consistently good and perfect for Switch. I enjoy them more than any of the past few mainline FF.
Triangle Strategy, a JRPG tactics and new IP that hit 1 million sales, is an unmitigated success

Octopath 2, while down from the original, is also a million-seller and has now established a pattern and baseline for the series

Live a Live, a remake of a super-obscure JRPG, trundled to 500k sales pretty readily, which the development team trumpeted on their live stream and considered a success.

The Asano-produced games have proven to be a formula for success and, while they may scale back the pace of these releases, its one S-E gambit that has paid off handsomely.

Also, I will not allow them to stop these efforts until they remake Ogre Battle
Hopefully other non-2DHD styles of "restoration projects" like Tactics Ogre proved to be solid successes as well 🤞
 
Overreaction perhaps? They are booking their FF16 development expenses right off the bat, are they not?
Should help boost subsequent quarters if so.


Triangle Strategy, a JRPG tactics and new IP that hit 1 million sales, is an unmitigated success

Octopath 2, while down from the original, is also a million-seller and has now established a pattern and baseline for the series

Live a Live, a remake of a super-obscure JRPG, trundled to 500k sales pretty readily, which the development team trumpeted on their live stream and considered a success.

The Asano-produced games have proven to be a formula for success and, while they may scale back the pace of these releases, its one S-E gambit that has paid off handsomely.

Also, I will not allow them to stop these efforts until they remake Ogre Battle
Hopefully other non-2DHD styles of "restoration projects" like Tactics Ogre proved to be solid successes as well 🤞

"Booking their FF16 development expenses right off the bat" sounds like them trying to spin their poor profit numbers. I mean once a game is complete the costs are what they are and have to be paid, if the point is that they could have instead stretched out paying dev costs, that probably isn't very smart as borrowing money almost always incurs interest costs.
 
Personally, I'm at a point where my impression of S-E boils down to: some fantastic development teams and creatives attached to a pretty shit publishing business, at least looking at it from the outside.
 
I’m less worried about Team Asano and more worried about new efforts like Harvestella, Voice of Cards, and Dungeon Encounters

Leaning even further into AAA feels like the wrong learning from their 2023 slate
SE are in a weird place because the building blocks of a solid strategy are there, in which they focus on a small number of high profile, big budget releases that sell big numbers, funded with smaller, lower budget titles which act as a financial cushion. The issue is they've kinda been flailing about with their big budget games recently, while producing so many smaller budget titles that they're cannibalising their own sales. I mean I bought Triangle Strategy, Harvestella and Ocotopath 2 within the space of a year from them and enjoyed them all, but let's be honest, I'm the exception here. And what's more, that's money I might have spent on FFXVI instead.
 


Gibson has deleted original tweets and said this now:

Hope was not the right word. Sorry. The results were in the range of their expectations, feel the penetration of PS5 performance was quite good. (as they said before when announcing the 3m number).

Time to change the title
 
Don’t really have much to say personally since I think the game did alright but I don’t know the variables.

Tho if im being honest. It doesn’t feel like the game had a lot of staying power. Probably because how it’s structure but the talk around it died down way quicker then I expected. But there’s been a lot of good stuff out lately so probably not a big issue.
 
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I need more Harvestella in my life, tho x(
Definitely the biggest loss here since Asano's probably fine

Just resumed my playthrough of it and damn the game is just so much fun. Extremely rough around the edges, sure, but it just works really well for me. Would've been awesome to see a sequel with more budget and polish but I imagine that's just not going to happen
 
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If Square cancel Triangle Strategy 2 they are dead to me.
 
Hopefully this doesn't mean DQ12 is going action oriented for adults. My childhood.
 
Man, I just miss the good old days of SQUARE SOFT.
After FF XVI, I just went straight back to FF VII, FF IX & Chrono Cross for comfort.
Back then, Square is so talented. One example is that when I heard wind chime sound in Kiki's house in Chrono Cross, only then did I notice a wind chime shaking on the still background. Such experience is way better than 3D audio, adaptive trigger, etc in FF XVI.
And the writing, the writing in FF VII, FFIX, Chrono Cross is another level comparing to FF XVI, Octopath Traveler 2.
I just hope Square find their talent back or just do faithful remake of the old games.
Not adding twist like the FF VII remake. No need to do that, please.
 
I believe if the competition wasn’t that hard, the game would have sold much better.

Street fighter, diablo, octopath 2, Resident Evil 4, Theatrhythm, star wars, pikmin, harry potter, zelda, Baldurs Gate 3… so many great games that even a solid game is not enough in 2023.

And we still have more to come, so the legs of an action game will be crippled.

Maybe that 4 million was achievable, mainly because PS5 is breaking records in monthly hardware sales, but there are so many great games in so many different genres that it makes sense jumping FF16 and wait for the Black Friday deals.

But meh…. PR will always try to stunt and say the results are better than they are. It almost feels like that chapter from Curb your enthusiasm where Larry is in the spectrum.

I follow companies for more 10 years and I know when they are using words to hide the true feelings of the result.
 
"Several years to impact" makes me think it's also their Switch 2 strategy. But I really doubt Square would give bigger budgets to their lesser known games, DQ included. I assume FF and KH will be their only AAA franchises moving on. Rest of the company will focus on retro styled stuff (Asano) and remakes.
NieR was absolutely planned to be a big franchise for them moving forward and has been given its own internal team - given the anime is getting a second season and doing well i doubt its going to be a cancelled mid range project
 
Bloomberg have actually released a couple of articles with quotes from both the investor call, as well as from other analysts:


Sales of the latest installment of the long-running role-playing title did not meet the high end of the company’s expectations, Square Enix President Takashi Kiryu told analysts on a post-earnings call Friday, according to three people who attended.

Slow adoption of Sony Group Corp.’s PlayStation 5 was a limiting factor, Kiryu reportedly said. Now that hardware supply constraints have dissipated, Square Enix plans to take steps to boost sales as more people use the PS5, he said. A Square Enix spokesperson declined to comment.

“The Final Fantasy franchise’s profitability is weakening and improvements will take time,” Citigroup analyst Junko Yamamura said in a note to investors.
 
Sales of the latest installment of the long-running role-playing title did not meet the high end of the company’s expectations, Square Enix President Takashi Kiryu told analysts on a post-earnings call Friday, according to three people who attended.
Well, at least we can stop discussing this, then. It met their baseline expectations, but failed to meet their more optimistic estimations. Not a commercial flop, but not the break-out hit they were hoping for either. (Or, just as the thread title says, falling right within the range of what they were expecting.)
 
Sales of the latest installment of the long-running role-playing title did not meet the high end of the company’s expectations

can I say something without anyone getting mad
 
Look past the spin of “expectations” and look at the financial accounting.

Expensing everything to a narrow time frame so it only makes one quarter look bad is called “taking a bath.”

Companies take baths when they want to put a flop in the rear view mirror and don’t want its poor financial performance dragging down their books for years. They normally amortize costs over whatever they view as the life cycle of a product to try to smooth out their profits so they can be predictable for investors.

Square Enix has had one complete bomb and a second merely disappointing product for expensive AAA releases this year. And they are doubling and tripling down on more expensive AAA games. I think that is because management gets a thrill making them. They should instead try something different like cheaper, gameplay focused games, maybe with cheaper cartoon graphics. Just brainstorming.

That kind of behavior is what got Kojima dismissed from Konami.

The Square Enix Board of Directors needs to shake up the management team before the company enters bankruptcy.
 
I think if you look at the game's reception through the lense of "Did it sell enough to make back it's costs" it did ok. Not great, not amazing, but ok. Maybe sales will pick up as the year goes on, who knows.

If you look at the sales in the context of SE wanting to reinvigorate the franchise and grow the series again, then it didn't do so well. Sales are down against previous games, and the legs don't seem to be great.

It's a competitive year, but in previous generations a new FF game would be able to compete with literally any other game in the industry releasing at the same time. The fact that other games like TotK, Diablo and Street Fighter are stealing the spotlight from XVI shows how much work SE needs to put into re-establishing it as a premier, must play series.

It's very much the Halo Infinite situation all over again: not a terrible reception, but not enough to turn the ship around and put the series back where it once was.
 
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A game that vastly undersold its predecessor while costing far more to make didn't meet expectations?

Shocker.
 
I think that if Square wants to maximize the potential of the Asano games, they should really consider spacing out releases more. In this crowded market and without the exclusive help of Sony and Nintendo, its more than a little difficult to grab attention.
 
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I think we all understand that Asano and team are pretty much safe even in case SQEX almost completely moves away from AA games.
They're likely bringing in money while developing on a tight budget.

And hey, see it this way, in case SQEX goes insane and actually stops Asano from doing his trademark games and remakes, Nintendo could always swoop him up.
He would be a good fit there, he might even make it possible to revive some older IPs again!


I knew it. You are a group of people with a shared account!

;]
 
We'll have to see how FFVIIR2 performs, but I'm not confident that SE will see better results from another PS5 exclusive. DQXII will likely do well since it'll be on a Nintendo platform, at least, and I'd hope for their sake that the current gen install base is more amenable when KHIV rolls around. I'm not sure how well their domestic audience recovers given current trends, though.
And hey, see it this way, in case SQEX goes insane and actually stops Asano from doing his trademark games and remakes, Nintendo could always swoop him up.
He would be a good fit there, he might even make it possible to revive some older IPs again!
What do you think Tomoya Asano does?
 
We'll have to see how FFVIIR2 performs, but I'm not confident that SE will see better results from another PS5 exclusive. DQXII will likely do well since it'll be on a Nintendo platform, at least, and I'd hope for their sake that the current gen install base is more amenable when KHIV rolls around. I'm not sure how well their domestic audience recovers given current trends, though.

What do you think Tomoya Asano does?

Producing video games?
 
Bloomberg have actually released a couple of articles with quotes from both the investor call, as well as from other analysts:

I know Final Fantasy is what gets the clicks, but I'd really emphasize it's the mobile part of that title that's cratering Square right now. That division just stopped growing and started shrinking hard the past year.
 
It's best and makes the most sense to make games for all platforms. Square Enix has a problem fracturing the fanbase of certain titles.
 
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I think if you look at the game's reception through the lense of "Did it sell enough to make back it's costs" it did ok. Not great, not amazing, but ok. Maybe sales will pick up as the year goes on, who knows.

If you look at the sales in the context of SE wanting to reinvigorate the franchise and grow the series again, then it didn't do so well. Sales are down against previous games, and the legs don't seem to be great.

It's a competitive year, but in previous generations a new FF game would be able to compete with literally any other game in the industry releasing at the same time. The fact that other games like TotK, Diablo and Street Fighter are stealing the spotlight from XVI shows how much work SE needs to put into re-establishing it as a premier, must play series.

It's very much the Halo Infinite situation all over again: not a terrible reception, but not enough to turn the ship around and put the series back where it once was.
I think it is even worse considering that Halo 5 didn’t rock the boat sales wise. However, FFXV did. FFXV sold 5 million copies in its first day, and has legged it out to 10 million copies. Then you also had FFXIV, which goes without saying it's a massive success.

Final Fantasy was already at that point of being back, it was doing really great stuff. Now I am not a fan of FfXV, it's one of the few FF I am not interested in beating, along with the echelon of FF2, and 8. I actually like FFXVI as a game, far more, and was actually able to beat it as opposed to XV.

But I really think they screwed up, considering people kind of voted with their wallet in terms of what they want to see from FF. And instead of iterating on it, making it way better, they tried changing the genre of the game completely.
 
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I know Final Fantasy is what gets the clicks, but I'd really emphasize it's the mobile part of that title that's cratering Square right now. That division just stopped growing and started shrinking hard the past year.
It's a den of sharks in mobile. Burn free-to-play ideas by the truckload and see if one sticks in hopes for that pot of gold.
 
so pikmin 4 > FF16 ww is probable still?

that's all im here for at this point.

im also slightly worried for ff7r2 but its open world iirc so it should be a bit more appealing.
 
It's a den of sharks in mobile. Burn free-to-play ideas by the truckload and see if one sticks in hopes for that pot of gold.
It’s also a pretty expensive area now. Genshin Impact can bring in over a billion a year but a bad year would snowball fast on any companies finances. Lady’s of cheaper to make billion dollar hits are pretty much gone in that space.
 
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Man, I just miss the good old days of SQUARE SOFT.
After FF XVI, I just went straight back to FF VII, FF IX & Chrono Cross for comfort.
Back then, Square is so talented. One example is that when I heard wind chime sound in Kiki's house in Chrono Cross, only then did I notice a wind chime shaking on the still background. Such experience is way better than 3D audio, adaptive trigger, etc in FF XVI.
And the writing, the writing in FF VII, FFIX, Chrono Cross is another level comparing to FF XVI, Octopath Traveler 2.
I just hope Square find their talent back or just do faithful remake of the old games.
Not adding twist like the FF VII remake. No need to do that, please.
They just need to redo Ever Crisis and turn it into a proper FF7 game rather than a gacha game that closes after 6 months.
 
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Outside of FF14 and a couple other hits (Nier Automata, Octopath 1), Square's last several years of output has ranged from "mildly disappointing" to "historically bad" financially from both a AAA and AA perspective. We'll see how it goes, but they obviously have to change something.
 
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