• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.

Sales Data "Results were in the range of their expectations" for Final Fantasy 16 sales, expensed all costs in FY24 Q1 so future sales will all be profits

Reader mode
Hero of Hyrule

Hero of Hyrule

Frieren the Slayer
Pronouns
He/Him






David Gibson on Twitter (transcribed below):


Square Enix - couple of things going on 1) FF16 3m units the company said was inline but had hoped for more 2) They fully expensed the cost of FF16 in 1Q so future sales are all profits 3) they wrote-off/expensed titles that were in development as they refocus on AAA. 4) the 1Q ¥3bn profit compared to consensus of ¥12.7bn, so suddenly their ¥55bn OP guidance for the year doesn't look so conservative versus consensus at ¥61bn and 5) Focused strategy - less mid sized, more larger AAA console games, company said will take several years to impact. 6) FF14 Dawntail expansion release in summer 2024 is later than most expected. 7) FF Ever Crisis on mobile could have upside for the company, it is in pre-registration.

Mod Edit: title changed, see post 44
 
Phantom Thief said:
5) Focused strategy - less mid sized, more larger AAA console games, company said will take several years to impact.
Click to expand...
"Several years to impact" makes me think it's also their Switch 2 strategy. But I really doubt Square would give bigger budgets to their lesser known games, DQ included. I assume FF and KH will be their only AAA franchises moving on. Rest of the company will focus on retro styled stuff (Asano) and remakes.
 
Lugia667 said:
Asano is probably one of their most profitable parts after XIV tbh, I dunno why they would dump them
Click to expand...
They won't. I really doubt this "focus on AAA" thing ever will be real as their biggest recent bombas were higher budget games (Forspoken, Star Ocean 6 and Valkyrie Elysium). It would be such a stupid move to focus on money losers.
 
Well then, this gives the whole Xbox presentation a lot more clarity.

I think its safe to say that SE will be backing off from exclusivity deals from now on. And that includes Nintendo.
Lugia667 said:
Asano is probably one of their most profitable parts after XIV tbh, I dunno why they would dump them
Click to expand...
I’m sure they either want to keep team Asano The same, or maybe give him some bigger projects. Imagine what he would do for a numbered FF game, or in Dragon Quest.
 
Lozjam said:
I think its safe to say that SE will be backing off from exclusivity deals from now on. And that includes Nintendo.
Click to expand...
Only third party games Nintendo publishes are from Square nowadays, I doubt Nintendo would look for another as there aren't many JRPG makers left. They'd push even harder for more deals.
 
Lozjam said:
Well then, this gives the whole Xbox presentation a lot more clarity.

I think its safe to say that SE will be backing off from exclusivity deals from now on. And that includes Nintendo.

I’m sure they either want to keep team Asano The same, or maybe give him some bigger projects. Imagine what he would do for a numbered FF game, or in Dragon Quest.
Click to expand...
if these games keep getting more expensive I think the opposite might happen actually
 
This doesn't seem so bad. At least not as bad as it could have been. Granted, Square hoped for more, but this is the state of FF atm and if they at least kept their expectations low enough to meet them, that hopefully leaves room for improvement.
 
Wait a minute, you're telling me that the forum warriors who said Final Fantasy XVI's performance was good but not great and a bit worrying for longterm franchise stability were right? Say it ain't so 🤭

In all seriousness, hope that no crazy assumptions get made in either direction about the AAA focus. Square Enix's AA catalogue is one of its most powerful tools, but if I had to guess they're probably including recent failures like Valkyrie Elysium and Star Ocean 6 in the AA category. A Square Enix that leans their AA profile with only high quality releases like Team Asano and other smaller titles isn't necessarily a bad thing.
 
I’m less worried about Team Asano and more worried about new efforts like Harvestella, Voice of Cards, and Dungeon Encounters

Leaning even further into AAA feels like the wrong learning from their 2023 slate
 
Lozjam said:
Well then, this gives the whole Xbox presentation a lot more clarity.

I think its safe to say that SE will be backing off from exclusivity deals from now on. And that includes Nintendo.

I’m sure they either want to keep team Asano The same, or maybe give him some bigger projects. Imagine what he would do for a numbered FF game, or in Dragon Quest.
Click to expand...
They better step up their marketing game them because SE has big issues in this department especially for their smaller fair games.
King_Dodongo said:
Weren't they happy about its sales?
Make up you mind, Squeenix.
Click to expand...
They never actually said they were happy nor sad with the sales other than calling them “extremely strong” compared to installs bases.
 
Lozjam said:
Well then, this gives the whole Xbox presentation a lot more clarity.
Click to expand...
The only other time S-E has embraced Xbox was when the PS3 was sucking wind and they needed the additional platform to to keep XIII from face planting at launch. The recent announcement was eerily reminiscent of that moment.
 
It's not surprising that most of those mid-tier games flopped since they released them all in like a 4 month window, not to mention that no one cares about Star Ocean these days, let alone Valkyrie Profile. Where the fuck is the next Nier game Square. Automata has sold almost 8 million copies and was a critical success.

Also the Kingdom Hearts games STILL being locked to the Epic Store after like 2 years is bonkers. How big was that check.
 
9-Volt said:
Only third party games Nintendo publishes are from Square nowadays, I doubt Nintendo would look for another as there aren't many JRPG makers left. They'd push even harder for more deals.
Click to expand...
However, we have already seen Square self publish a non exclusive Octopath Traveler 2. Now it didnt set the world on fire in sales. I do think it would have sold better with Nintendo publishing it, but the fact that octopath 1 was never on PS4 didnt help. I think it does showcase however, that Square is having a hard time getting a consistent following, and growing a fanbase with their current console strategy. That’s honestly pretty hard when half of your catalog is on 2 completely separate $200-$500 devices. I honestly think Square is going to be putting games wherever they can.

I do predict that FFXIV, FFXV, FFVII R, and FF XVI are coming to the switch 2 though. And not only that, but I predict that FFXVI will indeed be downported to the PS4. And then Nintendo Sony, and MS will more or less get parity releases with a few exclusives.
 
King_Dodongo said:
Weren't they happy about its sales?
Make up you mind, Squeenix.
Click to expand...
That was always a damage control statement. The statement seemed to be a response to Bloomberg, who reported on lackluster legs of FF in Japan, given to IGN, and the response was only about initial launch sales... even though the articles about XVI's sales were about its lackluster legs.

That being said, I don't think the 3M number could ever be reasonably construed to be bad.
 
AngryAlchemist said:
In all seriousness, hope that no crazy assumptions get made in either direction about the AAA focus. Square Enix's AA catalogue is one of its most powerful tools, but if I had to guess they're probably including recent failures like Valkyrie Elysium and Star Ocean 6 in the AA category. A Square Enix that leans their AA profile with only high quality releases like Team Asano and other smaller titles isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Click to expand...
The problem about Valkyrie and Star Ocean is they did not market the games at all and platform holders did not helped a bit. The advantage of being on Nintendo systems, exposure on games is bigger, even getting showcased on Directs do the games a big favor. None of Star Ocean and Valkyrie were on top sellers charts on PSN (which has a bigger digital to physical ratio) but both Theatrhyhm and Octopath 2 on eShop (reached up to no 3) were.

Two rules of having your game sell well:
  • Make it a good one
  • Market it to the moon
ermitron2 said:
This is going to affect more the switch isn't?
Click to expand...
It says it'll take several years to go into effect so Switch will be dead by then. Switch 2? Depends on its graphical capabilities.
 
I really hope they don't give up on the Live a Live/Triangle Strategy type games to chase a buck... those are so consistently good and perfect for Switch. I enjoy them more than any of the past few mainline FF.
 
Square just shot themselves in the foot.

Except almost unironically. They are doing everything in their power to kill Final Fantasy by buying into these obnoxious exclusivity deals and hinging its identity on being prohibitively expensive to develop
 
Not sure leaning more into AAA is the better play here. Instead of 5 mid-budget projects that could potentially be successful you'd essentially be hedging bets on 1-2. Either way I hope Team Asano continues to be able to create titles.
 
I think the mid-sized games they are most likely to cut back on are titles like Star Ocean and Valkyrie Elysium. They didn't do particularly well and probably costs more to develop than a typical Asano game.
 
0
It feels like Square is always treading water, somehow they get out of trouble and then land in another hot spot.
 
King_Dodongo said:
Weren't they happy about its sales?
Make up you mind, Squeenix.
Click to expand...
It's really not that crazy

When they green lit FF16, they were likely hoping it would sell ~4 million units at launch (similar to what FF15 did on just PS4).

Then between ps5 stock issues, poor ps5 software sales in Japan, and lower preorder numbers globally, SE lowered their expectations to ~3 million.

The game sold ~3 million, which hit those revised expectations, but they're still disappointed that FF contracted from both FF7R (~3.5 mill at launch) and FF15 (~4 million on just ps4 at launch).
 
Yeah, Square Enix went through a period of pumping out games like Valkyrie Elysium and Star Ocean 6, so they'll probably chill on those for a while.
 
0
the problem is most of their non FF and KH AAA games have been flops too. Heck they sold all their western studios because of it

edit: forgot about Nier but that was a while ago at this point
 
Last edited:
0
9-Volt said:
The problem about Valkyrie and Star Ocean is they did not market the games at all and platform holders did not helped a bit. The advantage of being on Nintendo systems, exposure on games is bigger, even getting showcased on Directs do the games a big favor. None of Star Ocean and Valkyrie were on top sellers charts on PSN (which has a bigger digital to physical ratio) but both Theatrhyhm and Octopath 2 on eShop (reached up to no 3) were.

Two rules of having your game sell well:
  • Make it a good one
  • Market it to the moon
Click to expand...
Eh, I think the bigger problem for those games was the quality. Marketing definitely played a part but, no way games like Star Ocean 6 or Valkyrie Elysium were ever going to do super well with their quality control issues.

That's the thing about Square, their AA and AAA games produce flops in equal measure. It's just that the AAA flops cost a lot more. One Avengers or Forspoken is probably worth multiple AA flops.
 
Mer.Saloon said:
They were happy it made their expectations. They're disappointed it didn't exceed them. Two different things.
Click to expand...
Tentacle-tropes said:
They better step up their marketing game them because SE has big issues in this department especially for their smaller fair games.

They never actually said they were happy nor sad with the sales other than calling them “extremely strong” compared to installs bases.
Click to expand...
BassForever said:
It's really not that crazy

When they green lit FF16, they were likely hoping it would sell ~4 million units at launch (similar to what FF15 did on just PS4).

Then between ps5 stock issues, poor ps5 software sales in Japan, and lower preorder numbers globally, SE lowered their expectations to ~3 million.

The game sold ~3 million, which hit those revised expectations, but they're still disappointed that FF contracted from both FF7R (~3.5 mill at launch) and FF15 (~4 million on just ps4 at launch).
Click to expand...
AngryAlchemist said:
That was always a damage control statement. The statement seemed to be a response to Bloomberg, who reported on lackluster legs of FF in Japan, given to IGN, and the response was only about initial launch sales... even though the articles about XVI's sales were about its lackluster legs.

That being said, I don't think the 3M number could ever be reasonably construed to be bad.
Click to expand...
Do you think they were unrealistic on their expectations?
It'll probably sell more over time but the install base hasn't exactly matured yet.
I'm probably uninformed about the overall numbers but which game has been the most succesful on PS5?
 
Last edited:
0
shoptroll said:
I’m less worried about Team Asano and more worried about new efforts like Harvestella, Voice of Cards, and Dungeon Encounters

Leaning even further into AAA feels like the wrong learning from their 2023 slate
Click to expand...
I feel like leaning more into AAA is the wrong lesson for basically everyone right now. Unless that’s just want investors want to hear so that’s what they’re leaning into. I’m worried about a lot of those same projects, too - so many of them showed a lot of promise and could really be improved in a sequel, so it’d be a shame to just abandon them.
 
Dark Cloud said:
So they weren’t happy after all?…
Click to expand...
I think it's reasonable to say they were satisfied with the results but wanted more. This is also partially about how investors are reacting to the sales than just Square themselves. They're probably looking at the dropoff from 15 and aren't very happy, regardless of any differing contexts between those two games.
 
0
I also feel like doubling down on AAA was the wrong takeaway from all of this. But maybe a tightened focus is what Square needs to recalibrate their operations. We’ll see how it goes.
 
shoptroll said:
The only other time S-E has embraced Xbox was when the PS3 was sucking wind and they needed the additional platform to to keep XIII from face planting at launch. The recent announcement was eerily reminiscent of that moment.
Click to expand...
The ps5 is selling amazing a ff14 is doing great so it's not the same situation at all, I think they just wanted to expand platforms so xbox people could enjoy the game now as well
 
0
Threadmarks Square confirms the game missed the higher end of their sales expectations, cites PS5 install base as limiting factor
  • Index


    • Square Enix Holdings Co. shares suffered their worst intraday drop in almost three years, erasing a little over a year’s worth of gains, after the company reported a 79% decline in operating profit.
    Hopes that Final Fantasy XVI would boost sales were dashed by the company’s downbeat earnings report Friday, driving the stock down as much as 15% in Tokyo on Monday.
    Click to expand...

    Sales of the latest installment of the long-running role-playing title did not meet the high end of the company’s expectations, Square Enix President Takashi Kiryu told analysts on a post-earnings call Friday, according to three people who attended.
    Click to expand...

    Slow adoption of Sony Group Corp.’s PlayStation 5 was a limiting factor, Kiryu reportedly said.
    Click to expand...
     
  • Index
    • People are worried about Asano, or Star Ocean or whatever, meanwhile SE has published like two dozen games since 2022. It's not hard to figure out why they need to reduce their output when you look at the sheer amount of stuff they've released over the last couple years. A lot of games has gotten completely lost or immediately forgotten.

    In contrast, with the sale of the Eidos branch, their AAA output will/would drop significantly in the coming years. It only makes sense to increase their AAA output in that context.
     
    Instro said:
    People are worried about Asano, or Star Ocean or whatever, meanwhile SE has published like two dozen games since 2022. It's not hard to figure out why they need to reduce their output when you look at the sheer amount of stuff they've released over the last couple years. A lot of games has gotten completely lost or immediately forgotten.

    In contrast, with the sale of the Eidos branch, their AAA output will/would drop significantly in the coming years. It only makes sense to increase their AAA output in that context.
    Click to expand...
    Did anyone remember Various Daylife was a game they released last year?

    Did anyone know it was also originally an Apple Arcade game from 2019?

    No one did. Cutting down on just how much games they release per year PERIOD is only a good thing, just so they don't clutter up everything and cannibalize everything. And also, so many of their games launch in a rough state where having more time in the oven would 100% help. It would help immensely to focus on quality over quantity.
     
    0
    Phantom Thief said:


    Gibson has deleted original tweets and said this now:

    Hope was not the right word. Sorry. The results were in the range of their expectations, feel the penetration of PS5 performance was quite good. (as they said before when announcing the 3m number).
    Click to expand...

    This is almost comical now. Mochi doomposting Square Enix makes a lot of sense and has to be taken with a grain of salt, but Dave Gibson accidentally using the wrong word and making it sound like Square was disappointed in sales?

    This is just hilarious at this point! I have to believe that the confusion comes from somewhere. Maybe it did just hit their lowball expectations and that's what's causing the confusion.
     
    zumaddy said:
    I really hope they don't give up on the Live a Live/Triangle Strategy type games to chase a buck... those are so consistently good and perfect for Switch. I enjoy them more than any of the past few mainline FF.
    Click to expand...
    I would be pretty surprised if they did. I feel like the AA games that should be pretty safe are the Asano games and the Dragon Quest spinoffs. Asano games feel like they pretty much have a sales floor of a million copies at this point, and Dragon Quest spinoffs often seem pretty low budget (not in a negative sense, just relative to other games) and have a pretty reliable base of players in Japan. Then there's stuff like Mana and SaGa which seem to perform decently when given the chance and have some people high up at Square in their corner.

    It's probably mostly everything else to be concerned for. Which is a bit of a shame. I've heard some really good things about games like Neo: The World Ends with You and Harvestella, but it's hard to say either game was much of a success for Square Enix. But really they release a lot of AA games right now. Hopefully if they trim down on them a bit it'll afford more of a chance to the ones that do release.
     
    Square-Enix's stock price is taking a massive hit.

    It will be interesting to see if FFXVI has legs or not.

    My personal feeling is they to recalibrate their whole business. Final Fantasy mainline + VII Remakes should be on all platforms ... PS5 + Switch 2 + XBox + PC day 1. Enough with the exclusivity crap, it's not 1999 anymore. Even if you don't sell big on XBox, MS will pay you $$$ to put the game on Game Pass so that's worth the port right there.

    They should try in Japan to regrow the Final Fantasy brand into something resembling what it used to be (a 2.5-3+ million seller) by leaning heavily on the Switch 2, it's going nowhere as a Playstation console brand there.
     
    Lozjam said:
    Well then, this gives the whole Xbox presentation a lot more clarity.

    I think its safe to say that SE will be backing off from exclusivity deals from now on. And that includes Nintendo.

    I’m sure they either want to keep team Asano The same, or maybe give him some bigger projects. Imagine what he would do for a numbered FF game, or in Dragon Quest.
    Click to expand...
    Then they should also learn to market their lower budget games though.

    They barely did anything for theor multiplatform games like Neo TWEWY or Octopath 2 while we saw a lot of Triangle Strategy and Live a Live because Nintendo handled the marketing there.
     
    Last edited:
    Reader mode
    You must log in or register to reply here.


    Back
    Back
    Top Bottom