• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.

Sales Data Nintendo Switch worldwide sales top 141.32 million (1.96M in the last quarter), forecast for the next fiscal year (Q2 2024 to Q1 2025) is 13.5 million

Kartina said:
If you’re expecting a drop off like the 3ds then the switch will easily outsell the ps2 160+mil.
The 3ds sold 10m units after the switch release so if the next switch comes out in march and they meet their forecast then the switch would be at 155mil and would go on to sell 165 if it matches the 3ds.
Click to expand...
PS2 can sell 5m more if Sony think switch is going to surpass it, it is a joke.
 
Zedark said:
Dat 13.5M forecast tho... They need to have some nice surprises in store, cause a 15%-ish drop following 2023's massive output requires those. Especially considering 2023 itself was a 13% drop from 2022 despite two blockbuster releases.
Click to expand...
Between the Direct announcement in June and this sales target, perhaps this means that Nintendo will finally release games in the second half of the year, and not become a fast-food chain or tire manufacturer for good, just because they didn't announce their entire annual schedule in the first half...
 
0
Some Highlights and notes

i1Qgdni.jpeg

2uenaCe.jpeg
 
Luminoth9090 said:
Some Highlights and notes
Click to expand...
Thank you for picking these slides out!

Still not sure how useful their "annual playing users" metric is, but glad to see it's increasing, which theoretically means continued engagement.

Nintendo notes that new entries in established franchises i.e. Super Mario Wonder have had very fast pace of sell-through. Digital is also on the rise, with the ratio finally surpassing 50%.
 
meatbag said:
Digital is also on the rise, with the ratio finally surpassing 50%.
Click to expand...
It's a misleading ratio; it's all digital sales on the Switch (including eShop-only releases, DLC, and NSO subscriptions) to "total software sales", which seems like it's the prior number + physical game sales. As you can see in the graph below, digital versions of packaged software makes up about 50% of their digital sales revenue; the physical/digital split for games with physical versions is likely still well below 50%.
 
Jersh said:
It's a misleading ratio; it's all digital sales on the Switch (including eShop-only releases, DLC, and NSO subscriptions) to "total software sales", which seems like it's the prior number + physical game sales. As you can see in the graph below, digital versions of packaged software makes up about 50% of their digital sales revenue; the physical/digital split for games with physical versions is likely still well below 50%.
Click to expand...
Ah to be clear, I was indeed referring to the ratio of digital sales compared to total software sales. I agree that the physical/digital split for games with physical releases would still be below 50% (I think IB has them at around 30-40%?).
 
Even if Switch misses the next forecast by a couple million, an eventual price drop will guarantee it passes 160m in the next few years. And if they release another Pokémon? Forget about it.
 
Luminoth9090 said:
Some Highlights and notes
Click to expand...
- Jesus, 11 Mario titles sold over a million in one year, that's a record. This is actually a little concerning, Mario right now is at its biggest, I fear that Nintendo will go hard with Mario on the successor before the other heavy hitters like Zelda, AC and Pokémon arrive. Congrats on them but I'm really tired of Mario. They need to try new things.

- 20 first party million sellers are not surprising as most of them are Mario but 11 million third party games are the interesting part. Switch is a console that's without all the mainstream titans like CoD or GTA5. Still able to pull 11 third party million sellers. One of them is definitely Minecraft but the others are harder to guess. Mortal Kombat 1? That game? DQ Monsters? Star Ocean 2?
 
9-Volt said:
- Jesus, 11 Mario titles sold over a million in one year, that's a record. This is actually a little concerning, Mario right now is at its biggest, I fear that Nintendo will go hard with Mario on the successor before the other heavy hitters like Zelda, AC and Pokémon arrive. Congrats on them but I'm really tired of Mario. They need to try new things.

- 20 first party million sellers are not surprising as most of them are Mario but 11 million third party games are the interesting part. Switch is a console that's without all the mainstream titans like CoD or GTA5. Still able to pull 11 third party million sellers. One of them is definitely Minecraft but the others are harder to guess. Mortal Kombat 1? That game? DQ Monsters? Star Ocean 2?
Click to expand...
Mario has no impact on Pokemon. Nintendo is always gonna go hard Mario. I mean look at the Switch lol. And doing Mario has not stopped them from doing new things.
 
Hocot8 said:
Mario has no impact on Pokemon. Nintendo is always gonna go hard Mario. I mean look at the Switch lol. And doing Mario has not stopped them from doing new things.
Click to expand...
That's not what I meant, mainline Pokémon will arrive on the successor possbily on its 2nd or 3rd year, Mario has nothing to do with it. Game Freak just need a little time for the next gen pokémon, I reckon. Same as Animal Crossing. And TotK has just released last year, the team might need few years for the next big thing. Before all of this, I totally expect Nintendo to focus on Mario until then, especially in its first year: Mario 3D, Mario Kart, Mario Party maybe even a new Paper Mario from Intelligent Systems?
 
9-Volt said:
That's not what I meant, mainline Pokémon will arrive on the successor possbily on its 2nd or 3rd year, Mario has nothing to do with it. Game Freak just need a little time for the next gen pokémon, I reckon. Same as Animal Crossing. And TotK has just released last year, the team might need few years for the next big thing. Before all of this, I totally expect Nintendo to focus on Mario until then, especially in its first year: Mario 3D, Mario Kart, Mario Party maybe even a new Paper Mario from Intelligent Systems?
Click to expand...
The pipeline should dry up at some point. If anything, I'd take this as a sign that the first year of the successor won't be Mario heavy. 3D Mario is all I'd personally expect (though in part because I'm expecting a Mario Party this year lol).
 
There was a big Mario drought from Mario Party Superstars to Super Mario Bros. Wonder with the only games during that period being a mid Mario sports and Rabbids 2, so I think the current deluge is alright
 
Jersh said:
(though in part because I'm expecting a Mario Party this year lol).
Click to expand...
With the legs or Superstars and even Super, another Mario Party would be the most redundant game they could put out for Switch this year

I'd like them to either make a real attempt at Animal Crossing Party without amiibo nonsense, or save Mario Party for next year as a next-gen exclusive
 
Wockio said:
With the legs or Superstars and even Super, another Mario Party would be the most redundant game they could put out for Switch this year

I'd like them to either make a real attempt at Animal Crossing Party without amiibo nonsense, or save Mario Party for next year as a next-gen exclusive
Click to expand...

Or drop an upscaled GC Mario party collection with online play and do the next MP in 2025 or 2026 for Switch 2. God only knows they will drag their feet unbearably long on GC NSO let alone getting all 4 GC MP games...

I guess dropping a Wii Party successor or a Legit Animal crossing party is an option too.

ND cube has the capability to develop both a successor MP and a second game in a ~4 year period.
 
0
jirou said:
If Dragon Quest Monsters sold a million units by now I'm posting Psaro fanart
Click to expand...
We got 11- million seller third party games (ones with physical versions) and DQM3 is literally the top candidate. So let's see your Psaro artwork. hope it's the adult one (adult as in Psaro as adult)
Jersh said:
The pipeline should dry up at some point. If anything, I'd take this as a sign that the first year of the successor won't be Mario heavy. 3D Mario is all I'd personally expect (though in part because I'm expecting a Mario Party this year lol).
Click to expand...
NDCube isn't a huge studio so whatever they're doing, Nintendo probably saved it for the successor. And they're due for a new game. I expect a brand new title that showcases the successor's gimmicks in its mini games. Even if it's just the new set of shoulder buttons...

Camelot also should have their next game ready soon, we might see another Mario game in 2025. I don't see Nintendo paying Camelot to do something else, so it's gonna be another Mario Tennis but this time not as an asset reuse.
 
0
I don't think it's slowed down way too much. It's only may and we only see huge hardware movement nowadays around black friday and Christmas.

I think nintendo won't say anything more about switch 2 from june~september.

june is the direct as we all know, july I don't see much happening unless they decide to rush the indie world, august and September would make no sense for another direct as the last major direct for this year will likely be only the june one and if a indie world is happening after it, considering we had a partner direct this year already, I don't see how we could have a mini direct after indie world.

so that leaves us with nintendo live iirc in September? then if that's the case, everything's pointing towards a october 2024 switch 2 reveal

"what about the in this quarter part of the tweet (in japanese)?" well, if furukawa really meant this quarter then august would be the only reasonable time imo
 
Steve said:
What do you mean, we got Mario Vs donkey kong, princess peach… and paper Mario…huh it really has been only Mario related stuff. Whelp as a Mario Fan I’m feasting.
Click to expand...
I reject this Another Code: Recollection erasure... but yeah, discounting DLC, there's only been two non-Mario franchise releases since October, which is pretty wild.
 
0
Does anybody here have a Resetera account?

There’s a multi-page topic on or near the front page with a bunch of misinformation - originally stating that 81% of game sales on Switch were from Nintendo first party, and the paltry rest from third parties.

It’s since been updated to specify revenue, not unit sales, but I believe what everybody is looking for can be found on Page 50 of Nintendo’s briefing today - a bar chart showing splits of both Nintendo and third party unit sales over the years, and denoting that it does not even include download-only games on the eShop. The bar this past year actually shows that third party unit sales make up more than 50%, which is more than past years.

Not that any of this really matters, but I tend to find this stuff on InstallBase for a reason…
 
ITSMILNER said:
I can’t see Switch getting any more big, new games outside what’s already announced so, unless they plan a big price cut, I’m not sure how they’ll hit 13.5 million in the next FY.
Click to expand...
I really think the rumored Switch Pocket exists and it will release summer. Moreover, they can also do price drops if they are not hitting the numbers they desire.
If they hit the numbers or come very close, then PS2 could be surpassed as long as they keep the Switch going for 1,5-2 years. Obviously if Sony makes up numbers and claims another extra 10 million, that is another story.
 
0
9-Volt said:
Before all of this, I totally expect Nintendo to focus on Mario until then, especially in its first year: Mario 3D, Mario Kart, Mario Party maybe even a new Paper Mario from Intelligent Systems?
Click to expand...
I don't really see this happening, at least not to a degree where it's notable. They aren't gonna double down on Paper Mario that soon, and after that it's all within expectation for Mario games. 3D Mario, Mario Kart, and a new Mario Party will all be well overdue; those three releasing early on in the Switch 2's life isn't something I'd consider out of the ordinary. I guess maybe, if they were to push it, they could focus on other Mario adjacent characters, like they did with Peach Showtime? But I don't think that'd be seen as a bad thing. Luigi's Mansion, Donkey Kong, Mario & Luigi, Wario Land, etc.

I don't really see a feasible release schedule that's blatantly targeted towards Mario like we've seen in the previous year, barring some surprises or double dipping on franchises like Paper Mario and Mario vs. Donkey Kong. Which I guess isn't entirely out of the question, but I don't see it as particularly likely.
 
meatbag said:
Thank you for picking these slides out!

Still not sure how useful their "annual playing users" metric is, but glad to see it's increasing, which theoretically means continued engagement.
Click to expand...

It’s very useful. It tells Nintendo that they should continue to release most of their software on the 140 million devices out there, indefinitely. It’s the same sort of metric that Sony, Microsoft, and 3rd party publishers used to determine that they should release 90%+ of their games on the ps4/one despite the ps5/Series X existing.
 
meatbag said:
Still not sure how useful their "annual playing users" metric is, but glad to see it's increasing, which theoretically means continued engagement.
Click to expand...

I think that can be one of the most useful metric of all. High user engagement indicates that people might be interested in buying new games for the console, and can also possibly indicate that they might be interested in hardware revisions and/or hardware "sequels".
 
My Tulpa said:
It tells Nintendo that they should continue to release most of their software on the 140 million devices out there, indefinitely.
Click to expand...
jariw said:
High user engagement indicates that people might be interested in buying new games for the console, and can also possibly indicate that they might be interested in hardware revisions and/or hardware "sequels"
Click to expand...
I guess my question would be more like what counts as an active user. From what I can glean from the files, as long as you open your Switch during the past 1 months, you're counted as an active user. But is there a minimum level of activity to qualify? Is playing Tetris 99 for a single round enough to be counted as an active player?
 
meatbag said:
I guess my question would be more like what counts as an active user. From what I can glean from the files, as long as you open your Switch during the past 1 months, you're counted as an active user. But is there a minimum level of activity to qualify? Is playing Tetris 99 for a single round enough to be counted as an active player?
Click to expand...
From the notes it is explained as:
“…which is the number of users who launched a game on one of the systems in the Nintendo Switch family of systems during the 12- month period…”
Click to expand...
Overall the APU means little if they aren’t buying software for the device. If we take PS5 in JP for instance; they could have a high APU relative to the number of systems yet we can see they don’t buy software. At a certain point it is untenable to support Switch indefinitely for many a reason. It is an interesting metric but flawed in certain ways.
 
meatbag said:
I guess my question would be more like what counts as an active user. From what I can glean from the files, as long as you open your Switch during the past 1 months, you're counted as an active user. But is there a minimum level of activity to qualify? Is playing Tetris 99 for a single round enough to be counted as an active player?
Click to expand...
Playing Tetris 99 once in a while is certainly much better than "Yeah, we bought a Wii at Christmas two years ago, I think we still have it in the attic somewhere."
 
Switch had the best fiscal year 7 of any Platform beating the PS2's 14.71 million by almost one million. The PS2 has the best FY8 of 13.73 million and Nintendo forecasts 13.50 million so for this fiscal year it will be close to the record.

Nintendo yearly hardware shipments (millions of units)

fhKXRrD.png


Note: GB hardware shipments counted up to March 31st 1998, GBC hardware shipments counted from April 1st 1998.

Sony yearly hardware shipments (millions of units)

C8JpcWR.png


Note: The PSV numbers are estimates and the PS5 still has Q4 remaining for FY3 and is forecast to ship 21 million.

Nintendo yearly software shipments (millions of units)

0f9qNXS.png


Note: GB software shipments counted up to March 31st 1998, GBC software shipments counted from April 1st 1998.

Switch software for fiscal year 7 was only around 15 million less than the combined total of all other Nintendo Platforms.
 
Last edited:
rick_C said:
PS2 can sell 5m more if Sony think switch is going to surpass it, it is a joke.
Click to expand...
Jim Ryan on some podcast in 2025

"And as we all know, PS2 is the best selling console of all time with 160... I mean 165... I mean 170million units sold."
 
The battle for top selling individual Nintendo hardware model continues. This quarter original model Switch gained 470K and is now only 410K behind DS Lite's final number, so the takeover should happen soon. April-May-June quarter is usually lower than January-February-March, though, so probably not as soon as the next update.
42Emr3S.png

0VW6jXM.png
 
Wait, I just noticed: Nintendo's basically saying that they're going to surpass the DS by April 2025?

I thought about it right now and if in the first quarter they did slightly below 2mi units, if we keep ~2mi for the next quarter and then finish the year with prime time November~December Black Friday+ Christmas selling around 8mi that would be ~151-152mi units that's still 2-3 mi units away.

Idk, I just don't see them selling over 10mi units through month 10~12 specially after switch 2's announcement.

Mid 2025? late 2025? sure, they can do it
 
Last edited:
kasparov77 said:
Idk, I just don't see them selling over 10mi units through month 10~12 specially after switch 2's announcement.

Mid 2025? late 2025? sure, they can do it
Click to expand...

The can make a price cut or… release a new restyle.

We had game boy advance micro, DSi XL and New 2ds XL released at the end of console lifecycle and near the successors, i wondering what they could do with switch, an only tv model? A smaller and cheaper switch lite? An oled switch lite?
 
0
If the Switch 2 starts out as non-OLED, I think OLED Switch Lite is less likely than ever.
 
0
Cuzizkool said:
Even if Switch misses the next forecast by a couple million, an eventual price drop will guarantee it passes 160m in the next few years. And if they release another Pokémon? Forget about it.
Click to expand...
Another Pokémon is already announced, to be fair.

I don't discount the possibility we get Pokémon Black/White remakes on Switch 1, though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.


Back
Top Bottom