IR Information : Sales Data - Dedicated Video Game Sales Units
www.nintendo.co.jp
switch is now only behind ps2 (155M) and nintendo ds (154M)
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Sales Data Nintendo Switch sells 8.22M in Q4 2022, LTD sales are 122.55M (3rd best selling game console of all time)
- Thread starter mazi
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switch is now only behind ps2 (155M) and nintendo ds (154M)
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It is as foretold
Close to the one billion software mark too
Close to the one billion software mark too
Handicapped Duck
Cappy
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Where Nintendo goes from here is the question.
Marce-chan
Magical Girls <3
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Oh yeah, if they keep making them for 2 more years it's gonna pass PS2 and DS even with huge drops.
Sparkling Hootle
Moblin
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If the Switch sells 20m by this time next year, and that puts it at 143m in Feb 2024, think it can gain another 10m (assuming Switch 2 is out in Spring 2024, if it’s holiday 2024, I think it would).
linkwashere
Space Warrior
The big missing point here is that Switch didn't even see a price cut in its lifetime. The profit margins for Nintendo here should be remarkable.
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PixelKnight
Observing the process
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Bumping this after linking to it in the old thread
Interestingly, the 20th best selling first party Switch tittle (Nintendo Switch Sports - 8.61 Million) has outsold the best selling Wii U game (Mario Kart 8 - 8.46 Million). I mean, I know the sheer disparity or success was obvious, but I think that does highlight just how crazy much the major Switch games have sold.
This seems like the logical conclusion to draw but if we look at the fact Switch sales peaked during the 2020 Covid boom and Nintendo have cited supply problems since then that are now coming to end for the hardware manufacturers, Nintendo may very well see this decline as being artificially inflated due to circumstance.
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I don't think manufacturing problems have affected them to such a large degree. It was only 2020 really where it was difficult to find a Switch. And it's one thing to say the decline was "artificially inflated", but it's entirely another to say the Switch will still grow YoY. I just don't see any possibility of that happening.
I think Nintendo will know the scope of this better than anyone. Looking forward to see their sales projections.
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The annoying thing is that the race to best selling console is going to be quite protracted at this point. The Switch has slowed down enough that if the succ releases in H1 2024, we probably won't find out the ultimate conclusion to that race for a few years yet. We're gonna have to be patient as the Switch inches ever closer in its twilight years
ragolliangatan
Tektite
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ultimately, if you had told me in late 2016 that NX would become the 3rd highest selling console ever I would have scoffed. I personally thought 50-75 million units was the ceiling for the Switch - it has completely destroyed that.
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Yeah it's a great turnaround. My expectation before launch was also around 80m I think, just barely edging out the 3DS
Linkstrikesback
Bounty Hunter
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Well, that was always the case, the videogame markets only so large after all.
It'll probably be clear before long whether the switch sales are resilient enough to the successors release once that is dated and released or not.
Worryingly for team1st place, the sales breakdown by platform was largely to the OLED with it being +92% YOY while the original and lite were massively down, which suggests to me, perhaps incorrectly, about how the markets kinda falling out for the cheaper models and people are only really still buying in for the premium end, which will drop off significantly once new hardware is out.
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Bloomsbury report looking slightly more suspect now. Bloomberg reported Nintendo were back on track for 21 million this fiscal year. Nintendo did reduce their profit forecast slightly - looks like that's down to currency fluctuations with the yen and US dollar.
In fact, skimming through - the forecast for this fiscal year is actually down to 18 million from 19 million. So Bloomberg were definitely wrong on Nintendo hitting the original 21 million this fiscal year; remains to be seen if the rest of their report on production increases was correct but this does cast some doubt on it.
What's impressive - besides the huge milestones Nintendo are hitting - is how stable things are for them on the revenue/profit side of things. Obviously there are declines, but they're only very slight. That's important as Nintendo heads to a transition, because they wanted to avoid the boom/bust they experienced with previous systems.
In fact, skimming through - the forecast for this fiscal year is actually down to 18 million from 19 million. So Bloomberg were definitely wrong on Nintendo hitting the original 21 million this fiscal year; remains to be seen if the rest of their report on production increases was correct but this does cast some doubt on it.
What's impressive - besides the huge milestones Nintendo are hitting - is how stable things are for them on the revenue/profit side of things. Obviously there are declines, but they're only very slight. That's important as Nintendo heads to a transition, because they wanted to avoid the boom/bust they experienced with previous systems.
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The video game market is growing though, as the hobby becomes more accepted/mainstream. Anecdotal but I know lots of people who bought the Switch that never in a million years would've bought prior home consoles, for games like Animal Crossing and Stardew Valley. I imagine Nintendo's long term vision is at least in part to always try and expand their demographics
I don't want to call it too early but with the Switch being at 122 million already, I think it's going to blow by the PS2. If it even sells 18 million the upcoming year that will put it at 140 million which practically puts it in spitting range. Couple this with the fact that I think a successor comes later than everyone expects, I'm riding that team1stplace wave come hell or high water
The guy who reported that at Bloomberg seems to be way off the mark often. It's difficult to put stock into anything he has to say.
Mr Swine
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I don't want to call it too early but with the Switch being at 122 million already, I think it's going to blow by the PS2. If it even sells 18 million the upcoming year that will put it at 140 million which practically puts it in spitting range. Couple this with the fact that I think a successor comes later than everyone expects, I'm riding that team1stplace wave come hell or high water
The guy who reported that at Bloomberg seems to be way off the mark often. It's difficult to put stock into anything he has to say.
Switch would need to sell 37 million in the next 2 years or more which is too much more that the hardware sales is slowing down faster and faster
The hardware sales aren't slowing down fast at all though. Considering how long the Switch has been on the market its current sales are unprecedented, and that's before any major price drops and with Nintendo citing stock as an issue that has finally been resolved.
ragolliangatan
Tektite
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It think the Switch will likely top out around the 145 million figure. I think sales are on a natural downward slope for the console given the age of it. I expect we'll see the first details of it's successor in November with a release in early Spring 2024. The fact that the Switch is even in the discussion to outdo PS2/DS sales is phenomenal given where Nintendo started this generation.
Samus95
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The PS1 sold 20 mil after the release of the PS2 so....
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And didn't the PS2 sell like 50m after the release of the PS3? lol
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Deleted member 2807
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This is super impressive.
Also, Switch sales are pure video game dollars.
PS2 lifetime sales? There’s no telling how many of those were for the fact that it was the cheapest DVD player at the time - and DVD was the new, hot meal ticket.
(Not trying to downplay PS2’s software that drove hardware sales, but there’s no denying it’s time and place as a DVD player.)
Also, Switch sales are pure video game dollars.
PS2 lifetime sales? There’s no telling how many of those were for the fact that it was the cheapest DVD player at the time - and DVD was the new, hot meal ticket.
(Not trying to downplay PS2’s software that drove hardware sales, but there’s no denying it’s time and place as a DVD player.)
jariw
Moblin
I looked at the software figures and was a bit surprised that the 1 billion unit barrier wasn't broken already (I know that digital-only titles don't show up which nevertheless makes these numbers a bit misleading).
Then I looked at the software forecast for the full fiscal year: the projections is to sell about twice as much software units (205 million units) as the Wii U sold during its lifetime (103.54 million units).
Then I looked at the software forecast for the full fiscal year: the projections is to sell about twice as much software units (205 million units) as the Wii U sold during its lifetime (103.54 million units).
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PS2's longer term sales partially came from Sony rolling it out in emerging markets around the world. I'm not sure the videogame market 17 to 23 years ago (gulp!) tells us all that much about how Switch is going to do now.
It's going to be close, for sure. There's no mistaking that the system is slowing down and, interestingly, the og and Lite models are slowing down fast. I'm not sure how much Nintendo can boost demand through something like a price cut (or even if they'd want to do that, in case it ate into profits), and we don't yet know how a successor system would alter the dynamic.
Assuming Nintendo's hit their 18 million target, Switch is at a little over 125 million on April 1st. 30 million plus after that is doable, but not guaranteed, I think. If we assume another relatively gentle 20% drop in the current fiscal year, then Nintendo are just shy of 140 million in April 2024. After that, it becomes really tough to call, because of a potential successor system.
One thing Nintendo might be very pleased about is that 'annual users' continues to grow (up to 112 million). They don't reveal how they class an annual Switch user, but that growing figure suggests that there's going to be plenty of demand for software and subscriptions etc in the next few years. It's also key motivation for Nintendo to ensure continuity with their next system, given how much people are using the Switch.
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I agree with everything you said. I just disagreed with the original notion that the Switch needs to sell its remaining units in a two year timespan. It's not gonna crater to zero just like that.
I think realistically I could see it selling around 15m in FY23, putting it at about 140m. Then I expect the succ to release shortly after and for Switch sales to drop by at least half for the next year. Then for maybe another two or three years it'll sell an additional few million total. Under this model I actually don't think it will beat the DS/PS2, but come impressively close.
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They say an annual user is someone who started a software title at least once during the year. Or is there more to it, am I missing something?
Edit: Here the quote from the explanatory pdf, page 11:
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It's a bit of a fudge, then, because someone who presumably plays 4 minutes of a single game counts as much as Emperor Nerds like me, who play 700 hours across 20 games. Still, I suppose between the software sales and Nintendo's 'annual user's figure, engagement is pretty healthy.
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Yeah it‘s a strange metric, but I feel it gets balanced out a bit by users who don‘t have an account or are not being connected to the internet, which is not unlikely considering it being partly a handheld, at least there seem more factors in play than on a conventional console. Also I for example didn‘t agree to the statistic metric, so I‘m not even included in this number lol.
Though it would be really interesting if they‘d provide more metrics to the users. I feel like they could share more at the next meeting, as a great final show off to stockholders what the switch achieved during its main life cycle.
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Luminoth9090
Moblin
Bar graphs for software and hardware
Since it's the end of the Nintendo Switch's sixth calendar year here are also hardware and software shipments for the calendar years
Since it's the end of the Nintendo Switch's sixth calendar year here are also hardware and software shipments for the calendar years
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Luminoth9090
Moblin
Nintendo Switch compared to other high selling platforms with substantial quarterly hardware data
Ahmed
Koopa
Yep, it depends on multiple factors I think, such as:
- When is the next system coming out? That will slow down the sales of the Switch even further.
- If the next system is a Switch 2/incremental upgrade (not Pro). If the next system makes the Switch totally obsolete, the sales will drop even further.
- Pricing and availability. Nintendo still has to do a price drop, which at this point is probably only after the next system is announced/released. Depending on the pricing it could be either enticing to get a Switch or not. And assuming production will decline after the next system is available, sales will be much lower.
Nintendo needs to sell ~33 million Switches to become the best selling system. If we do have 1 year left of the Switch without the next system, it will never come close to selling that amount. It will probably sell about half that amount. The other half would be after the next system is out. It will take a while for it to sell 15-20 million units.
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This is very interesting, thanks. Obviously, FY6 only has 9 months of shipments so far - if Nintendo hit 18 million that'd compare very favourably to other systems at this stage, and would be above even DS. DS craters in FY7 once 3DS is on the market - I always wondered if Nintendo cut production early to give 3DS more room to take off.Nintendo Switch compared to other high selling platforms with substantial quarterly hardware data
As things stand, Switch's FY 7 should be stronger than every other system here (assuming no successor before 2024). Let's assume Switch is at 125m as a starting point for FY7 and that a successor comes in FY8. If we assume a similar rate of decline to PS4 (I haven't bothered to do the exact maths, this just follows the general pattern), you'd end up with something like:
- FY7: + 14.5m (139.5m)
- FY8: + 7m (145.5m)
- FY9: +1.4m (146.9m)
- FY10: +0.25 (147.15m)
I do wonder - looking at how sharply DS, 3DS, and PS4 tailed off - how much room there is in the marketplace these days for a 'mature' (I.e. old, well established) console. How much have market dynamics at the low price end of the market altered in the face of tablet and mobile gaming? Do families plump for games through devices they already own instead of buying older consoles? It's interesting how sharply the older models of the Switch are declining, while the OLED performs strongly.
Reassuring for Nintendo when it comes to a successor I guess - premium features and a higher price point probably won't be huge obstacles to success and OLED suggests there's demand for an improved hybrid console - but it might suggest that, like other popular systems over the last decade or so, Switch declines pretty rapidly as the successor comes into play.
Dunban
Riki may well be the softest of all Nopon
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I'm curious to see where Nintendo goes from here. Switch is starting to show decline but it's still in great condition for how old it is. Now that it's officially the third best selling console of all time all eyes are on the DS and PS2, just how close will it get?
