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StarTopic Nintendo Switch 2 Speculation Thread |ST| The Future is just Beyond the Present

What is the big day 1 launch game for successor of the Nintendo Switch System?

  • 3D Mario

    Votes: 212 80.0%
  • 2D Mario

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • New Donkey Kong

    Votes: 4 1.5%
  • Metroid Prime 4: Beyond

    Votes: 22 8.3%
  • Pokemon Legends: Z-A

    Votes: 4 1.5%
  • Star Fox

    Votes: 2 0.8%
  • New IP

    Votes: 1 0.4%
  • Mario Kart

    Votes: 14 5.3%
  • Super Smash Bros

    Votes: 2 0.8%
  • Splatoon

    Votes: 1 0.4%
  • Animal Crossing

    Votes: 2 0.8%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • New Zelda

    Votes: 1 0.4%

  • Total voters
    265
They are not launching a 3D Mario on an empty user base console. Only time they did this was Mario 64 - all other 3D Mario games launched in Q3/Q4

They absolutely will, they need to build that base quickly and 3D Mario is the best option they have to do it. What is their next best option? Zelda. But that's not an option this time around.

Pokemon, Mario Kart and Animal Crossing rely on a bigger install base. 3D Mario does not.
 
There's no 'empty user base console' for the big franchises like Mario (and MK), Smash or Zelda. Mainly because those games sell like if they were a new release for 7 straight years.
 
They absolutely will, they need to build that base quickly and 3D Mario is the best option they have to do it. What is their next best option? Zelda. But that's not an option this time around.

Pokemon, Mario Kart and Animal Crossing rely on a bigger install base. 3D Mario does not.

They don’t need to do it quickly because both consoles will coexist for couple years

A Zelda remake is an option also

Time will tell
 
They are not launching a 3D Mario on an empty user base console. Only time they did this was Mario 64 - all other 3D Mario games launched in Q3/Q4
That’s like the complete opposite. They need to launch a big Mario game at the earliest because it’s the Nintendo franchise least reliant on a big install base since they’re games that go on to sell for the entirety of the platform life.
 
That’s like the complete opposite. They need to launch a big Mario game at the earliest because it’s the Nintendo franchise least reliant on a big install base since they’re games that go on to sell for the entirety of the platform life.

Gamecube didnt launch with 3D Mario
Wii didnt launch with 3D Mario
Wii U didnt launch with 3D Mario
Switch didn’t launch with 3D Mario
 
Gamecube didnt launch with 3D Mario
Wii didnt launch with 3D Mario
Wii U didnt launch with 3D Mario
Switch didn’t launch with 3D Mario
2 of them still launched with a mario game
The ds also launched with a 3d mario game.
The point is not they need a big mario game at launch, but it’s that they need a big evergreen title that will keep on selling for the entire system life at launch, and unless we’re getting a new zelda or smash game at launch it has to be a new 3d mario game or maybe mario kart.
Pokemon legends za and metroid prime 4 are not evergreen title that’s why I don’t think they fit as the launch game of the system.
 
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Im not concern trolling, but we sure this thing coming out by March 2025 now? I honestly could see them somehow pushing this to late 1st half (April - Early June) or early 2nd half (Late June - Early Sep) of 2025, as today Direct shows that Nintendo pipeline isn't slowing down one bit with variety of new titles and remasters.
 
They don’t need to do it quickly because both consoles will coexist for couple years

A Zelda remake is an option also

Time will tell

I doubt a Zelda remake is coming next year. We'll have just had two brand new Zelda titles two years in a row. A BotW Remastered? Yeah sure but not as a tent pole release.

Yes they will coexist but Furukawa himself said "We approach our business every day with a profound sense of urgency. The generational transition of platforms in the dedicated gaming console business is never easy. We have experienced significant challenges following successful platforms multiple times, so we never consider our current situation to be totally secure."

Nintendo are going to follow the Switch playbook and put their best foot forward in the first year of Switch 2.

Also regarding 3D Mario not launching with other systems...

GameCube was a failure.

Wii had Zelda and Wii Sports, it didn't need 3D Mario.

Wii U was a failure.

Switch had BotW, it didn't need 3D Mario.
 
Im not concern trolling, but we sure this thing coming out by March 2025 now? I honestly could see them somehow pushing this to late 1st half (April - Early June) or early 2nd half (Late June - Early Sep) of 2025, as today Direct shows that Nintendo pipeline isn't slowing down one bit with variety of new titles and remasters.
I also don’t think we’re getting the next switch in march.
I think may at the earliest
 
Im not concern trolling, but we sure this thing coming out by March 2025 now? I honestly could see them somehow pushing this to late 1st half (April - Early June) or early 2nd half (Late June - Early Sep) of 2025, as today Direct shows that Nintendo pipeline isn't slowing down one bit with variety of new titles and remasters.
No point in waiting for games to stop coming to Switch to release new hardware. Especially when sales of Switch decline regardless.
 
Nintendo will 100% launch with a Mario game. It doesn’t matter the base is 0. they shouldn’t launch with any games with that talk.
 
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Im not concern trolling, but we sure this thing coming out by March 2025 now? I honestly could see them somehow pushing this to late 1st half (April - Early June) or early 2nd half (Late June - Early Sep) of 2025, as today Direct shows that Nintendo pipeline isn't slowing down one bit with variety of new titles and remasters.
I'd honestly be fine with H2 2025. Spring has way too much going on for me (multiple vacations).
 
I've been thinking for a while that Switch 2 should launch around June, so I'd definitely be fine with it releasing after the FY. I see it being revealed in December of this year at the earliest and not having a big blowout reveal until March. That would make it easiest for Nintendo to reach their sales goals with Switch for this FY.

I do agree that 3D Mario should launch with Switch 2. I also felt that Mario Kart should launch about a month after, but that was because I previously thought we'd get Mario Party on Switch 2 in Holiday 2025, but that is definitely not happening. I now believe Mario Kart should be the big Holiday 2025 title. What better title to go up against GTA 6? Metroid Prime 4 could be cross-gen and launch around September. Animal Crossing in Q1 2026 and Smash Bros in Holiday 2026.
 
I do agree that 3D Mario should launch with Switch 2. I also felt that Mario Kart should launch about a month after, but that was because I previously thought we'd get Mario Party on Switch 2 in Holiday 2025, but that is definitely not happening. I now believe Mario Kart should be the big Holiday 2025 title. What better title to go up against GTA 6? Metroid Prime 4 could be cross-gen and launch around September. Animal Crossing in Q1 2026 and Smash Bros in Holiday 2026.
GTA6 can go against GTA6. There's no reason not to believe Switch successor is getting it. It's gonna be pretty explosive launch window
 
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Im not concern trolling, but we sure this thing coming out by March 2025 now? I honestly could see them somehow pushing this to late 1st half (April - Early June) or early 2nd half (Late June - Early Sep) of 2025, as today Direct shows that Nintendo pipeline isn't slowing down one bit with variety of new titles and remasters.
They usually don’t detail anything past January in these June directs so it’s a bit too early to speculate on Switch 2 launch window IMO.

If they announce a September Direct and they go out of their way to specify there’s no new info for hardware again then I’d be more inclined to think hardware gets announced super late this year (November - December) for a Q2-Q4 2025 release.

If they skip a September Direct that’s probably smoke for a March 2025 release.
 
Unless Nintendo does a sudden correction, it seems that March is the date as corroborated by multiple outlets. Some shit will have to go bad for them to push the date back because, by now, procurement and storage of raw goods has probably started
 
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I'll have a new poll up shortly.
 
While it's certainly possible they have another Switch 1 only Sept Direct dating more Switch 1 games for H1 2025, I also think if that were the case they could have easily held off showing Prime 4 until then and instead made Zelda the closer of this Direct. So at the risk of being too optimistic, I'm thinking this schedule right now supports the idea of a March/April Switch 2 release.

The only reason I think it might not be as early as March is that would put M&L just 4 months before a new 3D Mario and that might be too close, although Mario RPG and Wonder were only a month apart and it didn't seem to negatively impact their sales.
 
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I voted for Pokemon in the new poll. Always a consistent seller, and with all the time GameFreak is being given to cook, I'm confident that it'll be huge, in more ways than one.
 
Gamecube didnt launch with 3D Mario
Wii didnt launch with 3D Mario
Wii U didnt launch with 3D Mario
Switch didn’t launch with 3D Mario
So what we have here are a list of consoles that either disappointed, or launched with their other biggest franchise.
 
I wish they said early 2025 for Metroid Prime so we could get an early confirmation that this system is launching in March next year. I hope we get a reveal as soon as possible but I think we'll only get start getting information in September at earliest.
 
The H2 lineup, while solid, feels more carter to enthusiasts than the mainstream audience except Mario Party. Even then, it's the third Mario Party on Switch, so I'm not sure how it's going to help Nintendo achieve their forecast. Reports and shipping data point to the successor launching this gen regardless of Switch's lineup this year. If anything, Switch 2 seems like it was always targeting next year for launch rather than some delay happening.
 
The H2 lineup, while solid, feels more carter to enthusiasts than the mainstream audience except Mario Party. Even then, it's the third Mario Party on Switch, so I'm not sure how it's going to help Nintendo achieve their forecast. Reports and shipping data point to the successor launching this gen regardless of Switch's lineup this year. If anything, Switch 2 seems like it was always targeting next year for launch rather than some delay happening.
It’ll hopefully have a price cut too
 
I think there's a non-zero chance we don't see a direct in september period and the switch 2 teaser trailer could be the thing that would take its place, just before tokyo game show.
My sentiments exactly. September is high time for the Switch 2 to be unveiled in order for third parties to go guns blazing with revealing what current upcoming games are also coming for the Switch 2, but I'm sure games that will be next gen exclusive will be featured in a Switch 2 focused Direct or event.

I also think there's a possibility that the Switch 2 could be revealed any time now...

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I don't get the correlation between Switch 1 software lineup and Switch 2 launch. The bulk of a console's yearly sales happens during the Holiday, it's the reason why a plethora of the Switch games announced are coming in November: Holiday season. It's also why Nintendo is launching another Zelda themed SKU with the Switch Lite: perfect gift.

It's just business as usual. If Nintendo really is imitating the Switch launch playbook, then the Switch 2 is coming next March.

• Re: Mario Launch - Being released during the first year is technically launch lineup. Again, if Nintendo is imitating the launch strategy of the Switch, then I can see 3D Mario coming out again in September 2025. If the Switch 2 really is backwards compatible, owners can entertain themselves with whatever 1st party next gen game comes out and/or Switch 1 games
 
I wasn't on the train before, but I definitely think that Metroid Prime 4 is gonna be the launch title now, along with a casual game like 1-2-Switch.

The Switch 2 is gonna sell gangbusters out of the gate no matter what the initial launch title is. As long as they get Mario Kart and 3D Mario on the system within the launch year, they're in great shape. Attaching Metroid Prime 4 to the launch gives them a likely excellent game that will drive a lot of online praise, and it coinciding with the launch will in turn give Prime 4 a lot of extra attention that it might not have received otherwise because, well, it's the launch title for one of the most hyped video game consoles of all time. It's a nice symbiotic relationship that can help boost Prime 4's sales.

Follow up with 3D Mario as the big holiday title, and now you've got a game that's gonna grab everyone's attention, which will keep momentum strong through the holiday season.
 
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I wasn't on the train before, but I definitely think that Metroid Prime 4 is gonna be the launch title now, along with a casual game like 1-2-Switch.

The Switch 2 is gonna sell gangbusters out of the gate no matter what the initial launch title is. As long as they get Mario Kart and 3D Mario on the system within the launch year, they're in great shape. Attaching Metroid Prime 4 to the launch gives them a likely excellent game that will drive a lot of online praise, and it coinciding with the launch will in turn give Prime 4 a lot of extra attention that it might not have received otherwise because, well, it's the launch title for one of the most hyped video game consoles of all time. It's a nice symbiotic relationship that can help boost Prime 4's sales.

Follow up with 3D Mario as the big holiday title, and now you've got a game that's gonna grab everyone's attention, which will keep momentum strong through the holiday season.
Prime 4 is cross-gen though.

They still need to launch with an exclusive.
 
Prime 4 is cross-gen though.

They still need to launch with an exclusive.
I disagree. The launch year as a whole is way more important than the launch title. Not launching with an exclusive won’t make or break the console; not following it up with exclusives will.

As long as they get big exclusives out within the year, they’ll be fine. The console will do incredibly well at launch no matter what game they release alongside it. Putting Metroid there gets extra eyes on what was likely a very high budget game, while 3D Mario can be saved for later when they need to get more eyes on the Switch 2 from the casual audience.

Metroid Prime at launch to capitalize on console hype, Mario Kart shortly thereafter to get the premiere evergreen on the system ASAP, 3D Mario in the holidays to get the attention of everyone else.
 
I disagree. The launch year as a whole is way more important than the launch title. Not launching with an exclusive won’t make or break the console; not following it up with exclusives will.

As long as they get big exclusives out within the year, they’ll be fine. The console will do incredibly well at launch no matter what game they release alongside it. Putting Metroid there gets extra eyes on what was likely a very high budget game, while 3D Mario can be saved for later when they need to get more eyes on the Switch 2 from the casual audience.

Metroid Prime at launch to capitalize on console hype, Mario Kart shortly thereafter to get the premiere evergreen on the system ASAP, 3D Mario in the holidays to get the attention of everyone else.
Hard disagree. That’s now how this business has ever worked. Metroid Prime isn’t a seller in this world. It touches smaller demographics and little for Japan. The launch game matters a lot. Metroid Prime benefits coming during the launch window hype while Mario ensures systems are sold out from the beginning.
 
I disagree. The launch year as a whole is way more important than the launch title. Not launching with an exclusive won’t make or break the console; not following it up with exclusives will.

As long as they get big exclusives out within the year, they’ll be fine. The console will do incredibly well at launch no matter what game they release alongside it. Putting Metroid there gets extra eyes on what was likely a very high budget game, while 3D Mario can be saved for later when they need to get more eyes on the Switch 2 from the casual audience.

Metroid Prime at launch to capitalize on console hype, Mario Kart shortly thereafter to get the premiere evergreen on the system ASAP, 3D Mario in the holidays to get the attention of everyone else.

Both the launch day and launch year are incredibly important. Nintendo launched the generation defining game day one alongside Switch, they didn't wait. You might feel like the situation is different but Nintendo do not.

They've mentioned again and again that they learned from past generational transitions and are not taking for granted their current position. That they need to provide new proposals to the market and act "with urgency."

A big exclusive launch day title gives the impression to the market that this is a new thing rather than simply a new shiny version of what they already have.
 
Hard disagree. That’s now how this business has ever worked. Metroid Prime isn’t a seller in this world. It touches smaller demographics and little for Japan. The launch game matters a lot. Metroid Prime benefits coming during the launch window hype while Mario ensures systems are sold out from the beginning.
Hard disagree from my side too. The system is gonna sell out no matter what they put at launch. They could release M.C. Horace Files his Taxes as a cross-gen game as the only launch title and the system would still sell out.

Metroid’s lack of a footprint in Japan is the best point against it, but if they pair it with another game I could see them still going with it. Especially if they view it as a good chance to try and expand Prime’s influence to make back on the higher budget.

Regardless, I’m not expecting 3D Mario until holiday 2025, that window just makes too much sense in my opinion.

Both the launch day and launch year are incredibly important. Nintendo launched the generation defining game day one alongside Switch, they didn't wait. You might feel like the situation is different but Nintendo do not.

They've mentioned again and again that they learned from past generational transitions and are not taking for granted their current position. That they need to provide new proposals to the market and act "with urgency."

A big exclusive launch day title gives the impression to the market that this is a new thing rather than simply a new shiny version of what they already have.
None of us know how Nintendo feels about the situation. We don’t know what they think of Metroid Prime 4 and its potential sales ceiling.

I don’t think Nintendo not launching a big exclusive day and date with their console day and date is them “not learning from past mistakes”. The Switch didn’t succeed because it had Zelda at launch, it succeeded because they followed it with one of their best years ever. They’re still poised to deliver on that regardless of what they launch the system with.

I think it's totally possible Prime 4 isn't even out in time to be a Switch 2 launch title.

Like if Switch 2 releases in March, it wouldn't surprise me if Prime 4 doesn't come out until May.
I’d be very pleasantly surprised if Switch 2 releases within the current fiscal year. That’s the big reason why I think the launch title would be Metroid and not Pokemon Legends, which I’m guessing is targeting a release within the current financial year so that they’ve got something from Pokemon.
 
Hard disagree from my side too. The system is gonna sell out no matter what they put at launch. They could release M.C. Horace Files his Taxes as a cross-gen game as the only launch title and the system would still sell out.

Metroid’s lack of a footprint in Japan is the best point against it, but if they pair it with another game I could see them still going with it. Especially if they view it as a good chance to try and expand Prime’s influence to make back on the higher budget.

Regardless, I’m not expecting 3D Mario until holiday 2025, that window just makes too much sense in my opinion.


None of us know how Nintendo feels about the situation. We don’t know what they think of Metroid Prime 4 and its potential sales ceiling.

I don’t think Nintendo not launching a big exclusive day and date with their console day and date is them “not learning from past mistakes”. The Switch didn’t succeed because it had Zelda at launch, it succeeded because they followed it with one of their best years ever. They’re still poised to deliver on that regardless of what they launch the system with.


I’d be very pleasantly surprised if Switch 2 releases within the current fiscal year. That’s the big reason why I think the launch title would be Metroid and not Pokemon Legends, which I’m guessing is targeting a release within the current financial year so that they’ve got something from Pokemon.
If Pokemon was targeting this financial year, they would have just given it a release date on reveal imo
 
If Pokemon was targeting this financial year, they would have just given it a release date on reveal imo
Maybe, but Arceus went without one either, just a vague window. Think they were just hedging their bets more than anything.

IIRC Peach Showtime didn’t get a date either on reveal, just a 2024 window. Think this could be similar.
 
Hard disagree from my side too. The system is gonna sell out no matter what they put at launch. They could release M.C. Horace Files his Taxes as a cross-gen game as the only launch title and the system would still sell out.

Metroid’s lack of a footprint in Japan is the best point against it, but if they pair it with another game I could see them still going with it. Especially if they view it as a good chance to try and expand Prime’s influence to make back on the higher budget.

Regardless, I’m not expecting 3D Mario until holiday 2025, that window just makes too much sense in my opinion.


None of us know how Nintendo feels about the situation. We don’t know what they think of Metroid Prime 4 and its potential sales ceiling.

I don’t think Nintendo not launching a big exclusive day and date with their console day and date is them “not learning from past mistakes”. The Switch didn’t succeed because it had Zelda at launch, it succeeded because they followed it with one of their best years ever. They’re still poised to deliver on that regardless of what they launch the system with.

We do know how Nintendo feels though.

Furukawa himself had said things like;

"We approach our business every day with a profound sense of urgency. The generational transition of platforms in the dedicated gaming console business is never easy. We have experienced significant challenges following successful platforms multiple times, so we never consider our current situation to be totally secure."

"There is an increasingly urgent need, more then ever, to continue offering unique proposals to become a brand that customers choose."
 
We do know how Nintendo feels though.

Furukawa himself had said things like;

"We approach our business every day with a profound sense of urgency. The generational transition of platforms in the dedicated gaming console business is never easy. We have experienced significant challenges following successful platforms multiple times, so we never consider our current situation to be totally secure."

"There is an increasingly urgent need, more then ever, to continue offering unique proposals to become a brand that customers choose."
None of that reads to me as them saying they absolutely have to launch with an exclusive game. That just reads to me that they feel the need to maintain a steady stream of strong support after the launch. It’s all up to personal interpretation.

I guess we’ll just agree to disagree.
 
None of that reads to me as them saying they absolutely have to launch with an exclusive game. That just reads to me that they feel the need to maintain a steady stream of strong support after the launch. It’s all up to personal interpretation.

I guess we’ll just agree to disagree.
I'd love to know why you feel that way though because I can't see how they look at Switch and don't say "That! Do that again!"

It just doesn't make any sense to me why they would launch their new system without new games.

Just because you know your system will sell out at launch is meaningless to me. Wii U sold out at launch.
 
It just doesn't make any sense to me why they would launch their new system without new games.
Believe it or not, Metroid Prime 4 is a new game. I highly doubt many people interested in buying a Switch at launch would be turned off by it being cross-gen.

Just because you know your system will sell out at launch is meaningless to me. Wii U sold out at launch.
That’s exactly why I think this is the route they’ll take. The system will sell at launch no matter what. Use that window to prop up an IP with more room for growth, and save your bigger hitters for a few months later once that initial hype starts to wind down.

A big reason why the Wii U failed was because of its abysmal launch year support. The Switch rectified that.
 
Believe it or not, Metroid Prime 4 is a new game. I highly doubt many people interested in buying a Switch at launch would be turned off by it being cross-gen.


That’s exactly why I think this is the route they’ll take. The system will sell at launch no matter what. Use that window to prop up an IP with more room for growth, and save your bigger hitters for a few months later once that initial hype starts to wind down.

A big reason why the Wii U failed was because of its abysmal launch year support. The Switch rectified that.

I see what you're saying but I don't think Nintendo will take that risk. The Switch 2 has a lot more competition in the market than Switch had when it launched.
 
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I am surprised by the discussions people have about Launch Title.

Apart from GAAS, the more games launched, the better.

Hopefully, after the release of NS2, these strange arguments will disappear, just like some people who previously claimed that Nintendo must hide NS2 until the end of the holiday.
 
Switch 2 selling out no matter the launch line-up is not really some outlandish thought. It has the advantage to ride on the height of Switch being a popular system.

And enthusiasts like me will show up day one.

Though for everything after, they do better have a good line-up.


Lords of The Fallen 2 probably skipping the next console (or Switch 2 version may be announced later).


I mean, i'm not saying this game will end up on Switch 2, but if we're being totally strict ... Switch 2 hasn't been announced yet. Nintendo said that there will be a successor and that there will be info "soon", but that's not really an official announcement of the system.

So third party devs and pubs simply might not be able to talk about their projects hitting Switch 2 yet.

Again, i'm not saying it will end up on the console.
 


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