also there was a lot of promo for SMRPG. Promo seems rather muted for TTYD in my eyes and I think lack of a direct doesn't help tbh. No holiday boost either.
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Discussion Let's predict TTYD Remake's Approximate Worldwide Sales
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Ricimer
Moblin
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The lack of a April direct to promote this and Endless Ocean was really stupid.
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Color Splash bombed because it was on the Wii U, just like almost everything else on that console did. Not only that, it released at the very tail end of the console's lifespan, when it was already deader than dead. It really doesn't have as much to do with the quality of the game as you're pretending it does.
Again, why should the complaints of TTYD fans take precedence over the opinions of "casual" fans? Everyone's money is worth the same. And to repeat, I don't know why you treat "core" fans as some sort of monolith. You think everyone posting online agrees with you when this very thread shows they don't. I much prefer the overworld gameplay of the new Paper Mario formula, because I like puzzle/adventure games. I think the writing has maintained its quality this entire time, Sticker Star excepted. The main problems nowadays to me are the story scenarios and locales being more generic, the character designs, and the regular battle system (not the boss one though - bosses in TOK are better than anything we've ever had before). So please tell me why Nintendo should give a few specific complaints from TTYD fans top billing?
I'm also gonna stop you right there on the Pokémon example. I should probably qualify this, lest I be labeled a fake fan, but I've played every single generation since 1998, regularly engage with the fandom and probably have more game knowledge than 99% of fans, even here on Fami. I would consider myself as "core" as "core" can be. Yet I also believe Scarlet and Violet are the best games in the franchise since B2W2, over a decade ago. But you see a bunch of vocal fans complaining about them online constantly, and therefore you decide that they represent everyone? Performance issues/visual glitches are one thing, but gameplay design complaints are decidedly NOT objective.
Earthbounder
Boing!
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Can I say I hope it sells more than The Origami King without starting World War I Famiboards Edition?
TheQuietone
The Dread Captain
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Roughly 3 million. Won't outsell Origami King for various reasons such as late in the console cycle and its a remake/Remastered which ever you want to call it but other little reasons that will effect it.
Ricimer
Moblin
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No, good games on the Wii U sold well. Mario Kart 8 sold great, same with games like 3D World, Splatoon, Mario Maker, even core/more niche titles like Pikmin 3 found success on the Wii U. Saying nearly everything bombed on the Wii U is a misnomer. If Color Splash was game that resonated with the core Wii U base more it would have sold well.
Because the core fans are frequently more in-tune with the issues of the series than casual fans. Do you not think Paper Mario would sell better and receive more critical acclaim if they listened to the core fans and went back to the RPG formula? Not that there aren't lessons to be learned from the new games, I agree about you with TOK's overworld being the best in the series! But the open critic scores for SS/CS/TOK are lower than the original games for a reason.
Nintendo listened to the core Zelda fans after Skyward Sword received backlash for being too linear and it resulted in the best sell games in franchise history and critical acclaim.
I think you're in the majority opinion with core fans saying SV are the best games since B2W2. I was referring to the frequent criticism from core fans from the 6th gen onward that the games were making bad game design decisions. Stuff like the lack of post game content and simplification of the overworlds/routes. Some of that was addressed in SV, that game was mainly derided for the visual and polish issues.
That said I think the core fans were completely right with their criticisms from gens 6-8. They were definitely more in-tune with the issues of the series than the casual fans buying the games enmasse regardless of quality.
Decoyman
Bob-omb
After seeing how RPG performed, I'm guessing mid-2M at best. It's going to be a lot weaker in the Japanese market, it's not as ideally positioned, and software sales outside of Pokémon have been down for late generation games of already represented franchises. If the game was thrown out there as an early Switch 2 title, I think it'd be a lot more promising.
Cubs017
Like Like
We should find out what Mario RPG has sold at the next investor's meeting. I imagine TTYD will be similar?
It isn't coming out during the holidays, which is a con, but it is coming out at a weaker point of the year in terms of releases.
3M-4M seems safe. That's what RPG and Origami King have sold.
It isn't coming out during the holidays, which is a con, but it is coming out at a weaker point of the year in terms of releases.
3M-4M seems safe. That's what RPG and Origami King have sold.
DittoM
Bob-omb
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Paper Mario thread so in before inevitable staff communication.
My prediction is 2-3 million, less than Origami King. It’s a late Switch game during an era where there really is no hype around the console, and it’s one of many Mario remakes we’ve had over the last year.
And despite what some people here will say, the reception to TOK was not 100% negative. It was mixed, but leaning more towards positive, especially compared to the previous games. Arguing that anyone who liked it is just a casual that “isn’t in tune to the Paper Mario” discourse is the cowards way of saying “they only like it because they don’t know any better”, so I’d rather people cut the BS and just say that lmao. And the idea that the “core” fanbase is just people that liked the first 2 games and nothing else is gatekeepy bullshit.
My prediction is 2-3 million, less than Origami King. It’s a late Switch game during an era where there really is no hype around the console, and it’s one of many Mario remakes we’ve had over the last year.
And despite what some people here will say, the reception to TOK was not 100% negative. It was mixed, but leaning more towards positive, especially compared to the previous games. Arguing that anyone who liked it is just a casual that “isn’t in tune to the Paper Mario” discourse is the cowards way of saying “they only like it because they don’t know any better”, so I’d rather people cut the BS and just say that lmao. And the idea that the “core” fanbase is just people that liked the first 2 games and nothing else is gatekeepy bullshit.
Ricimer
Moblin
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I haven't said any of that. I said most purchasers of any big game that sells millions of copies are more casual fans. Like that's just a fact, most people are not online and engaging in internet discussion.That goes for any release.
Best example being Pokemon.
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Even if TTYD is a little less than TOK, if it's within a stone's throw I'd be super content with those LTD numbers, just enough to know I got to enjoy my favourite Paper Mario game one last time before I depart from the series' future entries.
I think whatever the next new entry in PM won't be a 'return to form', they'll keep trying whatever weird stuff they want to try and sales of this game won't affect future development decisions barring miraculous numbers.
I think whatever the next new entry in PM won't be a 'return to form', they'll keep trying whatever weird stuff they want to try and sales of this game won't affect future development decisions barring miraculous numbers.
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No. I'm sharpening my bat right now.
DittoM
Bob-omb
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Okay? What’s your point? Then the majority of people that buy TTYD will also be “casual fans” because the game will sell millions of copies. Yet despite that, people are saying game’s sales will be used as proof that more people want classic Paper Mario, and that the sales will “send a message” as to “what fans want.” I’m not making this up, you’ve literally said as much:
So why is Origami King selling as well as it did not sending a message as to what fans want? Why would TTYD selling any amount of copies not “just because of casuals sales?” What’s the difference here?
Yup. The hypocrisy is really nothing new for this fanbase but it is what it is. Origami King was fantastic. TTYD will most likely also be fantastic. Everybody gets what they want. And yet we still get silly fandom wars. So annoying.
NBOctoling
Octoling
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The funny thing is that at this point, I think Nintendo fans care more about these sales than Nintendo bean counters.
Paper Mario has never been a series that makes large sales but also never one that really cared about sales to making games. Reading interviews, its very clear that Paper Mario exists because all the directors WANT to make these games, regardless of fan backlash or sales (whcih quite frankly have been pretty consistent). Whether or not the next game is an RPG will be completely independent on this game's sales and more on what the Paper Mario team wants to do.
OT: I think TTYD will sell at or above TOK baring any weird shenanigans happening.
Paper Mario has never been a series that makes large sales but also never one that really cared about sales to making games. Reading interviews, its very clear that Paper Mario exists because all the directors WANT to make these games, regardless of fan backlash or sales (whcih quite frankly have been pretty consistent). Whether or not the next game is an RPG will be completely independent on this game's sales and more on what the Paper Mario team wants to do.
OT: I think TTYD will sell at or above TOK baring any weird shenanigans happening.
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I am once again asking people to not treat a system’s install base as the primary determining factor of a game’s sales. Color Splash was more a victim of the Wii U’s fading life, whereas Super Paper Mario was a beneficiary of being a platformer and the first game starring Mario on the Wii. Both are far more important to the games’ respective sales than the units sold of the Wii or Wii U. Install base factors most heavily into flagship releases, more niche releases do not see anywhere near the same benefit.
Plenty of people have done that. Say your say.
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I knew you'd try to pull these kinds of misguided technicalities, which is exactly why I said "almost everything." But let's address the meat of your point.
It's all relative. First of all, I already pointed out that Color Splash released at the tail end of the Wii U's lifespan, when the console was all but dead. Second of all, you think that if a critically acclaimed Paper Mario released on Wii U around the same time, it somehow would've sold similarly to the titles you listed? This is completely unfounded. Even TTYD "only" sold 1.91m on a ~22m install base, i.e. less than 10%. What kind of fantasy world are we living in where Paper Mario manages to sell 20%+ of a console's install base?
And before you say that Color Splash should've sold at least about as well as TTYD all other things equal - no. As I said, Wii U was on life support at that point. And not every single "core" user bought a Wii U by the way, we see that even here on Fami. Plenty of games that sold poorly on Wii U went on to crush those numbers when ported to Switch. TTYD would've sold worse if it released in Color Splash's place and Color Splash would've sold better if it released in TTYD's place.
Once again you miss my point entirely. You say more in tune with the "issues" of the series as if the issues are objective, when they're NOT. The only thing TTYD fans are in tune with is their own taste.
Do I think Paper Mario going back to its RPG formula will suddenly make it blow up in sales? Or that going back to its RPG formula inherently means it will be critically acclaimed? No, I really don't. I think TTYD has the chance to outsell TOK, but it won't be by some monumental amount. And I chalk TTYD's quality down to its clever and outside the box scenario writing more than anything, not its gameplay.
Nintendo didn't listen to "core" Zelda fans, they listened to industry trends. Which include the feelings of "mainstream" gamers you're so desperate to believe mean nothing, by the way! It's not like prior 3D Zeldas were significantly more open-ended than Skyward Sword, at least not in any meaningful ways. But I already understand that "core" = things you like/agree with/help your point and "casual" = things you dislike/disagree with/hurt your point, so there's nothing to discuss here really.
Bad game design decisions =/= game design decisions "core" fans don't like. I happen to agree with those criticisms by the way, but to pretend that more post game content or more complex route designs are an objective measure of quality is asinine. I simply accept that the developer's goals and focus changed, and that it does not align as well with what I am personally looking for out of a Pokémon game, but I don't go around calling gens 6-8 objectively bad.
In fact you're contradicting yourself here, because Scarlet and Violet moved even further away from the design ethos of gens 1-5, yet you agree that they're the best games since B2W2? Why, it's almost as if games should be judged on their own merits and how successfully they achieved what they were going for, rather than comparing apples to oranges with a blanket "A is better than B always, forever and ever amen"
NBOctoling
Octoling
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This place is going to be crazy no matter WHAT TTYD sales.
If TTYD < TOK sales = Doom and Gloom about how the casusal market doomed the franchise
If TTYD > TOK sales = Mocking the fans that enjoyed the SS-TOK era as "fake fans" and smug attitudes about "real fans"
If TTYD = TOK sales = BOTH
SuperPhil64
Cappy
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Hopefully 4-5 as unrealistic as it seems. I think a lot of hard core PM fans skipped origami king and with the reputatuon this game has I could see it attracting some folk that haven't played it before but have been wanting to give it a shot. At worse considering MarioRPG outsold the OG I think it will sell at least 2.5 - 3 mil beating the gamecube version's sales.
I hope it sells the best in the franchise BUT i'm expecting it to do as good as the original TTYD did, maybe slightly more. Origami King did not surpass Super Paper Mario despite many predicting it to do so and I don't see TTYD surpassing Origami King, since that was a brand new game and those sell traditionally better than remakes of older games.
It's also possible that Mario RPG scratched the Mario RPG itch for many on the Switch. So that could be some lost sales.
It's also possible that Mario RPG scratched the Mario RPG itch for many on the Switch. So that could be some lost sales.
Decoyman
Bob-omb
Peach Showtime tracked for only 9 days and is a game more contingent on legs (as reflected in the game still charting well in several countries). You can't take that game as indicative of much for now, it's likely to get close to 3M at the very least.
The Super Mario RPG result on the other hand makes for a better comparison. The game currently sits at 3.31M after moving another 170k units after the holidays, and chances are likely that'll be the last official sales update the game will get in a quarterly report. The game sold really well in Japan but there's also a whole lot of unsold inventory for the game that retailers are trying to get rid of by putting out some steep discounts. Currently in Japan, TTYD is tracking far below SMRPG, and with the game releasing outside of the holiday period late into the system's life, it's not looking likely that it'll have a reversal of fortune in the rest of the world.
TTYD breaking 3M seems a bit unlikely to me. It doesn't need to hit that number to be a success though and I'm sure they'll be happy if it "only" performs as good as the original release. Everyone might be staking the future sanctity of Paper Mario on the game's performance, but at the end of the day the game is just there to fill out the schedule.
Mekanos
300 Years Of Gyudon
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3D models are always going to go over better with general audiences than paper sprites imposed onto a 3D environment.
OP
OP
VintoWin
Moblin
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Paper Mario is 3D now though and the sales of previous ones don't seem worse than Super Mario RPG to me.
Feels like guessing to me. No real backing to that. Like if you personally like the aesthetic of SMRPG more, then that's fine. I actually am the reverse. I find the squished chibi models of SMRPG to be kind of strange looking. It's not exactly comparable to mainline Mario game aesthetic for me.
Feels like guessing to me. No real backing to that. Like if you personally like the aesthetic of SMRPG more, then that's fine. I actually am the reverse. I find the squished chibi models of SMRPG to be kind of strange looking. It's not exactly comparable to mainline Mario game aesthetic for me.
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I think the main idea is that Mario RPG, squished models and all, looks a little closer to the platonic ideal of a Mario game than Paper Mario. How much that matters this go around remains to be seen! I do think the "Paper" part of the name is a more immediate indication that the game isn't necessarily a core Mario experience, so some may be put off or feel it's superfluous.
NBOctoling
Octoling
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Tactician
Cappy
I think context really matters and we are very late in the Switch cyle. On top of that, The Origami King was released during the Switch (commercial) peak and on a very favorable scenario for video games.
I predict early 2 million given that. I would like it to be more, but I think that besides huge blockbuster titles everything else that releases this fiscal year would (at least) slightly underperform on Switch.
I predict early 2 million given that. I would like it to be more, but I think that besides huge blockbuster titles everything else that releases this fiscal year would (at least) slightly underperform on Switch.
Ricimer
Moblin
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I agree that placement impacts a game's sales and that Color Splash had an unfavorable spot, but it's not the full story. Other games sold fine when the Wii U was fading. In 2016 Twilight Princess HD and Pokken sold great, and they released only a couple of months before Color Splash. Even in 2017, BOTW -at the literal end of the system's life- sold close to 2 million on Wii U.
Good games were clearly selling well in 2016 and beyond on the Wii U. Color Splash just didn't resonate with the Wii U's audience and bombed as a result.
The Wii U audience largely consisted of more core users as it only sold 13m. I don't think Color Splash sells significantly better with this audience even if it were released in a more favorable year, like 2014 or 2015. The mass amount of backlash and controversy is still going to happen no matter when it came out.
Diddy Kong
Octorok
I'll go 5 mil.
