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Discussion Let's predict TTYD Remake's Approximate Worldwide Sales

Predict TTYD Remake's Worldwide Sales (Approx.)

  • < 1 million

  • 1 to 2 million

  • 2 to 3 million

  • 3 to 4 million

  • 4 to 5 million

  • 5 to 6 million

  • 6 to 7 million

  • 7 to 8 million

  • 8 to 9 million

  • > 9 million

Results are only viewable after voting.
VintoWin

VintoWin

Moblin
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Less than 3 weeks remain until the beloved classic returns to the market.

Some other sales numbers for reference:


YearPlatformTitleSales
(millions)		Ref
2000N64Paper Mario1.37[1]
2004GCNPaper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door1.91[1]
2007WiiSuper Paper Mario4.23[1]
20123DSPaper Mario: Sticker Star2.49[1]
2016Wii UPaper Mario: Color Splash0.87*[2]
2020SwitchPaper Mario: The Origami King3.47[1]
Chart sourced from: https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Paper_Mario
Their source is there as well.

Google says Super Mario RPG Remake (Switch) sold 3.14 million copies so far.

Idk how accurate is, I just put it here for reference.
 
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Exactly the same amount as Origami King so the debate about what the series should be will remain inconclusive and continue on forever.
 
SpaceGodzilla said:
famiboards.com

How much do you think Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door HD will sell?

Paper Mario (2001, N64) - 1.37m Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door (2004, GC) - 1.91m Super Paper Mario (2007, Wii) - 4.23m Paper Mario: Sticker Star - 2.48m Paper Mario: Color Splash (2016, Wii U) -
famiboards.com famiboards.com

already a thread
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Ah, well it's an old thread now. Didn't see it.

Hopium tells me 5+ million. Origami King and Super Mario RPG remake tell me 3-4 million. I'm going with 4-5 million. I think it will be a slight upset to the other games sales-wise.
 
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probably about 1.6 million imo

I think at this point the market for a switch paper mario game is a bit less hospitable than it was in 2020
 
DiddyRescue said:
Maybe as much or a bit more than Origami King? The Paper Mario fanbase is on the smaller side it seems.
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Smaller for Nintendo, maybe. Millions of people is a lot of people lol. Many companies/indies would kill for these sales AFAIK.
 
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In the previous thread I guessed 2-3M, but I’m getting a tad more optimistic on it with it being expected to anchor the summer release schedule. I think it could crack 3 million.
 
I think more than The Origami King. I think this game's near-universal acclaim and decades of folks singing its praises will give it a notable boost. I'd guess just over 4 million.
 
2-3 Million

Unlike Mario RPG, Paper Mario already has a title on Switch and later titles on the same Nintendo platform tend to sell less than the initial release. The only exceptions to this for the Switch are Scarlet/Violet (well, not yet but it's on track to happen) and Kirby and the Forgotten Land, likely due to the drastic change in gameplay.

Being a late Switch release may harm it too, although there isn't a whole lot of big first party titles lately so it may also benefit.
 
2.5-4.2 m, depends on legs really. Its launch probably wont be better than origami king which came kind of during switch hype. Although it did get the twitter announcement and didn't get a peak marketing push and maybe the Mario movie hype has been maintained a little bit?

I imagine Mario RPG remake is at around 3.3-3.4 or so by now. Not a bad comparison point.
 
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around 3 millions probably tho I could see it selling a bit less than Origami King because we're more towards the end of the switch life cycle so I'd have to guess there isn't as much enthusiasm for new releases but still enough interest to at least net 2 millions sales.
 
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More than the original TTYD but less than SMRPG's remake, so 2-3 million. It's coming out a bit too close to SMRPG to avoid a sense of overlap, and as much as I love the game, I just don't think Paper Mario has a ton of mainstream appeal unless you slap "Super" in front of it, and Origami King coming out earlier means diminishing returns on the brand for a late Switch game. I'd be happy to be wrong but I don't see it passing TOK. I don't think it needs to, though.
 
It's likely going to be around the TOK number, it's going to be interesting if it sells more than that. That would be a massive win.
 
I'm optimistic and will say a touch over 3M. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it lands at 2.4-2.6M.
 
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I’m expecting 3-5 Million, since paper Mario has practically no competition in May, plus the previous paper Mario title sold 3 Mil, same goes for Mario RPG remake.

But maybe this will be a huge hit, since Luigi mansion 3 surprised me (14 Mil, absolutely crazy) maybe this will too, since it’s a remake of a highly beloved GameCube game.
 
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2-3 Million. It's not gonna outsell either of The Origami King nor RPG.

The Origami King released on a rather dry year for Nintendo and was "the next thing" after Animal Crossing. It was also the first game in the series released for Switch and is a new game. Being both a remake and there already being a game on the console makes it less likely to sell as well.

Super Mario RPG was the November game, came out after Wonder and in the year of the Mario movie. It also doesn't have another game in the same platform, is a remake from a SNES game which makes it seem more like a new game than a remake from a GCN game, and has SUPER MARIO in the title.

It'll sell pretty greatly and I think the next instalment will be more of a traditional combat but with the new elements following the success from it and TOK.
 
Leo said:
It's not gonna make TOK numbers.
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Sadly I think you're right. TOK came out at the peak of the Switch's life, the first Nintendo game after Animal Crossing during COVID. Couldn't have asked for better sales conditions. Despite being the better game I doubt TTYD will outsell a game in that position.

It's suck if the wrong message is sent to Nintendo regarding what fans want out of the series. Hopefully the better critical ratings and reception of TTYD will convey that...
 
Ricimer said:
It's suck if the wrong message is sent to Nintendo regarding what fans want out of the series. Hopefully the better critical ratings and reception of TTYD will convey that...
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If TTYD sells worse than TOK, then is it really what the fans want at that point
 
There are many factors involved in sales. But I seriously doubt it will sell much worse than TOK. At the very least it will be comparable.

They didn't seem to take Super Paper Mario's sales seriously, for instance.
 
Didn't SMRPG/TOK both sell around 3/3.5 million? I think it's fairly possible it can hit those same numbers.
 
VintoWin said:
They didn't seem to take Super Paper Mario's sales seriously, for instance.
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Meaning what? That IntSys should've iterated on its gameplay because it sold the best? They've already told us, the gameplay changes are of their own choice. They make the game they wanna work on, nothing more.

Ricimer said:
Well the hardcore fans are always a minority in any game's sales. Origami King came out at a way more favorable time than TTYD HD which will influence the mass casual sales more.
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So "hardcore" fans count more than "casual" fans? They deserve to be catered to more? ok
 
Lord Azrael said:
Meaning what? That IntSys should've iterated on its gameplay because it sold the best? They've already told us, the gameplay changes are of their own choice. They make the game they wanna work on, nothing more.


So "hardcore" fans count more than "casual" fans? They deserve to be catered to more? ok
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I guess it goes either way. But sales numbers are likely to sway their decision to an extent.
 
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Lord Azrael said:
Meaning what? That IntSys should've iterated on its gameplay because it sold the best? They've already told us, the gameplay changes are of their own choice. They make the game they wanna work on, nothing more.


So "hardcore" fans count more than "casual" fans? They deserve to be catered to more? ok
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Well hardcore fans are more knowledgeable than 7 year old Timmy's parents buying him the new Mario game.
 
Ricimer said:
Well hardcore fans are more knowledgeable than 7 year old Timmy's parents buying him the new Mario game.
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Unless you'll be able to get the exact demographic breakdowns for both TTYD and TOK sales for us, this is a pretty insulting take and reeks of moving the goalposts. Why don't you tell us what percentage of TOK sales were from uninformed buyers that ended up hating it, then? Since you seem so sure
 
I mean that's just it. There just isn't enough information.

We just have some sense that the fanbase is very adamant they want classic formula back from looking at online sentiment over the years.
Who knows how many people that actually is? There's no way to measure.

There was a petition. How many people signed that?
 
Ricimer said:
Well the hardcore fans are always a minority in any game's sales. Origami King came out at a way more favorable time than TTYD HD which will influence the mass casual sales more.
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Origami king came out at a terrible time because it was right at the point where a lot of people had no idea about their employment for the future and it wasn't a phenomenon like among us or animal crossing that helped fill the gap of needing human interaction at home. Barely had any advertising and was basically shadow dropped as much as a physical game could be, too because Nintendo had to upend all their plans because of COVID. Which as we saw with prime remaster, doesn't do a game any favours.
Ricimer said:
Well hardcore fans are more knowledgeable than 7 year old Timmy's parents buying him the new Mario game.
Click to expand...

Want to insult any other groups en Masse for liking things you don't like while you're at it?
 
Linkstrikesback said:
Origami king came out at a terrible time because it was right at the point where a lot of people had no idea about their employment for the future and it wasn't a phenomenon like among us or animal crossing that helped fill the gap of needing human interaction at home. Barely had any advertising and was basically shadow dropped as much as a physical game could be, too because Nintendo had to upend all their plans because of COVID. Which as we saw with prime remaster, doesn't do a game any favours.


Want to insult any other groups en Masse for liking things you don't like while you're at it?
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Origami King came out during a well documented video game sales boom and when Switch sales were at their peak. Yes COVID was terrible. Video games were also selling like crazy because everyone was stuck indoors. Games that released during the lockdowns particularly, like Animal crossing and Paper Mario, sold insanely well, and that sales boon continued for years after too. Sorry but this is undeniable.

Lord Azrael said:
Unless you'll be able to get the exact demographic breakdowns for both TTYD and TOK sales for us, this is a pretty insulting take and reeks of moving the goalposts. Why don't you tell us what percentage of TOK sales were from uninformed buyers that ended up hating it, then? Since you seem so sure
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I don't mean that as an insult, I say it bluntly that casual consumers are the majority of any mainstream game's sales. Kids and parents are probably the biggest Nintendo demographic. Casual audiences are obviously not in tune with the grievances of more core fans. That's why Origami King sold well whereas Color Splash, a game on a system only bought by core users, bombed.
 
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Ah, paper mario discourse... Nuf said.

2-3 sounds about right, it's a remake, and there's already a game of the series on the platform (even 2 with the first one). I could see it hit 3+ if the marketing pull a lot of weight, but I don't think so. Higher? No chance. But I also expect it to be at minimum a 2M LTS.
 
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VintoWin said:
Curious why you think it won't sell as much as Super Mario RPG remake. Or just a hunch?
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It's the second Mario RPG remake in a very short space of time and the second 'Paper Mario' game on the platform (the first of which was well-regarded, but in a muted kind of way). SMRPG remake had a ton of nostalgia-fuelled hype (like, it was positively fizzing) that TTYD remake just isn't getting at the same level, even if it's getting a decent amount. I think it will do fine (and will remain the better game, but that's neither here nor there and I'm not trying to start anything!).

edit: so 'just a hunch' basically lol
 
Destined to be a 2-3m seller so the discourse can continue and arguments can be had until we repeat the process with the next entry in the series.
 
4-5 million, water can be turned into gold and all conflicts on earth are solved overnight.
 
beaglor said:
It's the second Mario RPG remake in a very short space of time and the second 'Paper Mario' game on the platform (the first of which was well-regarded, but in a muted kind of way). SMRPG remake had a ton of nostalgia-fuelled hype (like, it was positively fizzing) that TTYD remake just isn't getting at the same level, even if it's getting a decent amount. I think it will do fine (and will remain the better game, but that's neither here nor there and I'm not trying to start anything!).

edit: so 'just a hunch' basically lol
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Honestly, fair enough. I'm not sure whether the nostalgia hype behind SMRPG or TTYD is bigger, from my perspective, there's an equal amount out there. Although RPG did have the advantage of basically a whole region never being able to experience it as kids.
 
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In a just world, 10 million.

In this world, 2 to 3 is most likely. It outsells the gamecube release guaranteed
 
Ricimer said:
I don't mean that as an insult, I say it bluntly that casual consumers are the majority of any mainstream game's sales. Kids and parents are probably the biggest Nintendo demographic. Casual audiences are obviously not in tune with the grievances of more core fans. That's why Origami King sold well whereas Color Splash, a game on a system only bought by core users, bombed.
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So TOK is mainstream suddenly? And therefore the majority of people who bought it are casuals whose opinion matters less? Just cut the bullshit and say what you mean, which is "People that don't put TTYD on a pedestal are obviously not in tune with the grievances of TTYD fans." Maybe if TTYD sells well on Switch I'll just say it doesn't count because the majority that bought it are kids and parents, how does that sound?

You said that you hope Nintendo doesn't get the wrong message regarding what fans want out of the series. If TTYD ends up selling worse than TOK, why is the message "wrong"? Because for some reason you've decided TTYD is the objectively better game, and that everyone who disagrees with you doesn't know anything? That you are one of the "true" fans and that everyone who doesn't see it your way is a "fake" fan? This is so entitled it hurts

I still don't know why you assume all "core" fans agree with you by the way. I've played all Paper Mario games but Super, I like both TOK and TTYD - I'd even give TTYD the edge - and yet I still think your take is juvenile as hell. How do you explain that? Maybe I'm not a core fan either?
 
2 to 3 million seems likely I'd say. I think the game's long term fanbase and good reputation will help, as will the quiet release schedule. But there's been a lot of Mario already, including an RPG recently, there's already been a new Paper Mario on Switch, and so I don't expect to see this break out all that high. But 2 million plus would still be a strong result for a Paper Mario re-release at this point in time.
 
I ordered my copy just a few hours ago at the Nintendo store website (AT) and at the checkout it said, it could be that the delivery time could take longer because there are stock issues. Sounds good for the sales numbers I guess, but it also could just mean that it is understocked.
 
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Lord Azrael said:
So TOK is mainstream suddenly? And therefore the majority of people who bought it are casuals whose opinion matters less? Just cut the bullshit and say what you mean, which is "People that don't put TTYD on a pedestal are obviously not in tune with the grievances of TTYD fans." Maybe if TTYD sells well on Switch I'll just say it doesn't count because the majority that bought it are kids and parents, how does that sound?

You said that you hope Nintendo doesn't get the wrong message regarding what fans want out of the series. If TTYD ends up selling worse than TOK, why is the message "wrong"? Because for some reason you've decided TTYD is the objectively better game, and that everyone who disagrees with you doesn't know anything? That you are one of the "true" fans and that everyone who doesn't see it your way is a "fake" fan? This is so entitled it hurts

I still don't know why you assume all "core" fans agree with you by the way. I've played all Paper Mario games but Super, I like both TOK and TTYD - I'd even give TTYD the edge - and yet I still think your take is juvenile as hell. How do you explain that? Maybe I'm not a core fan either?
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Origami King was released on a system 10 times more successful than the Wii U, so yes it was more mainstre

Why do you think Origami King was a sales success and Color Splash bombed despite being very similar games?

For any big selling game most people who buy it are "casual" consumers. Most people who aren't posting on internet forums and social media about their favorite games. Nintendo is also the Disney of gaming and has a ton of younger kids/parents buying their games. And that's totally fine. But yes these consumers aren't swayed by internet backlash against the latest Paper Mario game the same way the more core Wii U base was with Color Splash.

It's the exact same with Pokemon. Despite backlash by core fans against the latest games and long-term series problems, the games still consistently sell like hotcakes no matter what. The mainstream fanbase simply doesn't care or is knowledgeable about the issues core fans have.
 
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