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Sales Data Famitsu Sales Week 43 - Super Mario Bros. Wonder Week!

Sales will be be terrible because there will be no big games. If Nintendo wants to maintain sales in Japan, they have to release the Fire Emblem 4 remake but that won't be enough, of course.
I don’t think Fire Emblem is going to help ‘maintain sales in Japan’. It’s not a small series but it’s mainline games aren’t exactly massive in terms of being really key software either. Engage sold 145k at launch in Japan before sales collapsed (as rpgs tend to be frontloaded anyway) and it ended up around 1.5m worldwide 4 months later. I agree that FE works really well as part of a general Nintendo varied software range though, it’s one of my favourites anyway.
 
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Switch sales will be absolutely terrible next year all round, the collapse in switch sales in the west alone will make the collapse in hardware sales in Japan seem low by comparison. Nintendo will desperately need new hardware release next year, the Switch is now very close to its saturation point.
Sales will be be terrible because there will be no big games. If Nintendo wants to maintain sales in Japan, they have to release the Fire Emblem 4 remake but that won't be enough, of course.

First, you don't know that there will be no big games. Do we have to do this every year? Every year at this time we only knew a tiny fraction of the games that were coming, and this will be no different. This is how you get daft stuff like totk is the last big switch game only for mario wonder to come in at full speed, among other stuff.

Second, every other company in the world wishes it could be close to "saturation point" and be selling 15m+ units a year. It only finally dropped below the ps4 peak last year and that had several years more life in it.
 
The only reason why people are saying that Switch sales will collapse in 2024 in a thread about mid-October 2023 sales in Japan is because they want the Switch 2 to come out sooner...and I guess they think Nintendo will read it somehow and move up the release date, I guess.
 
why does japan hate sonic?

Japan doesn't hate sonic, they treat it like a series that's not been consistently good since the mega drive and it sells as such.

If anything, it's weirder that the series persisted in the west for so long despite there being at least a, like, 2/3rds chance that any title from the last two and a half decades has occasional good spots among a bunch of mediocre fluff.
 
Japan doesn't hate sonic, they treat it like a series that's not been consistently good since the mega drive and it sells as such.

If anything, it's weirder that the series persisted in the west for so long despite there being at least a, like, 2/3rds chance that any title from the last two and a half decades has occasional good spots among a bunch of mediocre fluff.

Sonic isn't exactly a record breaking seller in the west either. I think there's just a perception that the Sonic games have been and still are more popular than they are in reality. Don't get me wrong, selling 1, 2 or even 3 million copies of the game is great but it's not as high as you would expect with a character as well known as Sonic. Despite the quality of the games, Sega has a done good job of promoting Sonic with other merchandise and media so he remains relevant to the conversation even today.
 
Wonder will end up being either the best or second best 2D Mario release when factoring digital, so the reactions here are weird as hell. Not to mention it’s not yet the holiday season, and this is a franchise that has huge legs.
 
Mario Wonder is better than Tears anyways, that's all that matters
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I don’t think Fire Emblem is going to help ‘maintain sales in Japan’. It’s not a small series but it’s mainline games aren’t exactly massive in terms of being really key software either. Engage sold 145k at launch in Japan and it ended up around 1.5m worldwide 4 months later. I agree that FE works really well as part of a general Nintendo varied software range though, it’s one of my favourites anyway.

Oh, I understood that Fire Emblem 4 is very popular in Japan and is considered as one of the best in the series ? It won't sell as well as Splatoon, but it's good enough to sell a few Switchi.

First, you don't know that there will be no big games. Do we have to do this every year? Every year at this time we only knew a tiny fraction of the games that were coming, and this will be no different. This is how you get daft stuff like totk is the last big switch game only for mario wonder to come in at full speed, among other stuff.

Second, every other company in the world wishes it could be close to "saturation point" and be selling 15m+ units a year. It only finally dropped below the ps4 peak last year and that had several years more life in it.

Sorry, I was talking about the games already announced. I hope Nintendo have more games planned for the Switch :D
As I've said elsewhere, I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for Metroid Prime 4, Fire Emblem 4 or a new Donkey Kong.

The only reason why people are saying that Switch sales will collapse in 2024 in a thread about mid-October 2023 sales in Japan is because they want the Switch 2 to come out sooner...and I guess they think Nintendo will read it somehow and move up the release date, I guess.

Personally, I don't care about the Switch 2, at the moment. I'm still having a lot of fun on my Switchi :D
 
Oh, I understood that Fire Emblem 4 is very popular in Japan and is considered as one of the best in the series ? It won't sell as well as Splatoon, but it's good enough to sell a few Switchi.

‘Sell a few Switches’, totally. ‘Maintain sales’? Not so sure. However, I think Switch’s library of evergreens is so strong that its decline it’s going to be slower than people think. Autumn next year for its successor will be fine, there’s no urgency.
 
First Mario Odyssey sells less than Botw, now Wonder sells less than Totk. Guess Nintendo should stop making Mario games because clearly no one's buying them.
 
Switch sales will be absolutely terrible next year all round, the collapse in switch sales in the west alone will make the collapse in hardware sales in Japan seem low by comparison. Nintendo will desperately need new hardware release next year, the Switch is now very close to its saturation point.
Some perspective is necessary: They’ll be the best 8th year sales ever for any console. Not terrible by any stretch. There’s still the option of a price cut, too. New hardware will come, that much is a statement of the obvious, but it isn’t an emergency, and terrible, it ain’t. It’s not even completed the 7-year lifecycle that’s been typical for HD consoles.
 
Mario Wonder "only having 3 days" is a weird defense of its performance. That's true for a lot of releases? Tons of big games are Friday launches, so that shouldn't matter. I also don't think it being the third biggest launch physically for a Mario game is noteworthy at all - Mario games didn't have good launches in Japan till NSMB DS, and the 2D games have historically been more popular in Japan, so of course it's going to be one of the few high launches. If anything I'm a bit surprised it was so close to Odyssey.

An actual defense to make would be that with digital this has a good chance at being the biggest Mario launch ever. The only thing that makes me not wanna say it is for sure is that digital should matter a little less for this sort of title, but it's still probably at or close to NSMB Wii's record.

In general tho people needed to keep their hype in check. 2D Mario being a legs affair is a tale as old as time, but people were acting like it was Tears of the Kingdom. It did well either way.
Man, this so much. A Mario platformer has legs. Plus, holiday season still has to start. This was never going to be a TotK/Pokemon affair where sales are concerned.
 
Attach rate doesn't matter as much as people think for sales. It definitely does influence the sales, but the demographics of the install base also matter, as well as how engaged the install base is.
 
Being 200/300k off the best Mario launches (NSMB DS and Wii) isn't bad at all when you remember that those DS and Wii launches had zero digital sales factored in. Unfortunately we don't have data on what the digital/physical split is for Nintendo in Japan, though it will obviously vary on a game by game basis. I also think people's expectations have become increasingly inflated by several huge Switch launches in the last year or so.

It's not guaranteed but I'd say it's fairly likely Nintendo share initial Wonder figures on November 7th when they release the six month figures.
 
Being 200/300k off the best Mario launches (NSMB DS and Wii) isn't bad at all when you remember that those DS and Wii launches had zero digital sales factored in. Unfortunately we don't have data on what the digital/physical split is for Nintendo in Japan, though it will obviously vary on a game by game basis. I also think people's expectations have become increasingly inflated by several huge Switch launches in the last year or so.

It's not guaranteed but I'd say it's fairly likely Nintendo share initial Wonder figures on November 7th when they release the six month figures.
I would say the digital split is pretty good considering the game was a voucher game, which usually have high digital splits from past observations. If we factor those in then Wonder pretty much gets there. I would say 30-40 % in this particular case seems about right.
 
I wonder (heh) if Sega was trying to play it safe by releasing Sonic in October because they guessed if Nintendo had something big releasing this holiday it would be in November. If I were them I would have thought October was the safer month. Definitely not an ideal release date but it probably wouldn't have done much better if they delayed it to November with everything else releasing.
 
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you mean the people on reddit aren't calling for nintendo to stop making mario games?!
yeah? in fact I have seen at least 3 people hope Nintendo gets acquired and go third party on here, which is 3 more than I have seen on Reddit
 
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Given that we would have gotten PR celebrating the game's opening weekend in Japan if it did snag the "#1 best opening for a Mario title" spot when factoring in digital, I think it's fair to say that the game did 30% digital or less. Beating NSMBWii's 935K would mean it did around 32% digital, if my math isn't crap.
 
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Totk had a 50% digital to physical split. Wonder should have the same. Why not? If anything makes more sense due to smaller download size
No. Big games like action-adventure games or JRPGs have higher digital ratios because their cartridges are pricier, so you save more. Also, Mario will have a higher casual purchase ratio, which will lean more towards physical.
 
No. Big games like action-adventure games or JRPGs have higher digital ratios because their cartridges are pricier, so you save more. Also, Mario will have a higher casual purchase ratio, which will lean more towards physical.
What? Aren't casuals just downloading games all the time while all hardcore gamers are obsessed about never buying anything digitally and preach about the evils of the all digital future on youtube?
 
Sonic Team: "Sales will not be good if we make a sequel to the widely acclaimed and successful Sonic Mania, this here will surely do the trick instead"

Talking flower: "Well, then"
 
Wonder definitely had a better launch than NSMB DS and Wii. Not only could you add in at least 30% increase because of digital, but NSMB DS and Wii launched on Thursdays, not Friday as Wonder did. This gives NSMB DS and Wii a day advantage. If you do add in that 30% increase to Wonder, you go from 638,634 to 830,224. Add back in the missing day, and there's no way it doesn't clear NSMB DS and Wii.

With that in mind, how strong these opening sales are, and Mario's sheer staying power in legs, Wonder is doing just fine. NSMB DS and Wii were already immensely popular games, so any increase from those two games is already gonna be impressive.
 
Sonic Team: "Sales will not be good if we make a sequel to the widely acclaimed and successful Sonic Mania, this here will surely do the trick instead"

Talking flower: "Well, then"
SuperStars isnt really a mania sequel at all
 
That's all good, it means more Xenoblade games for me. Somehow.
Interviewer: So can you tell us a little more about how Nintendo will transition to the next system?
Doug Bowser: Well I can't confirm or deny anything, but let's just say that Xenoblade fans have a lot to look forward to.
 
@rêverie since you are using Chris' OP, could you put a direct link to the original thread in the OP ?

 
Switch sales will be absolutely terrible next year all round, the collapse in switch sales in the west alone will make the collapse in hardware sales in Japan seem low by comparison. Nintendo will desperately need new hardware release next year, the Switch is now very close to its saturation point.
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no sonic on playstation
I knew the game was never going to hang with Mario, but it’s looking more and more like a serious underperformance regardless of context. The budget will probably save it, but definitely not a great look for Sonic.
 
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that’s the point — the Mania team wanted to do a sequel and Sega said “bye” and did this instead

The problem there is your imagined reality didn't happen. Ultimately, we don't know what the mania team wanted, but we can say for sure at the time they were happy to continue working with Sega since taxman updated retro engine for the origins collection and others from headcannon handled the 3&k origins port.

It's likely the answer is simply the boring one ,that they would have been too busy to develop a sonic mania followup on a reasonable timescale since at the time they had several key members working hard on developing their own IP for a 3d platformer as well as freedom planet 2.
 
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that’s the point — the Mania team wanted to do a sequel and Sega said “bye” and did this instead
This feels a bit misrepresentative of the actual events.

Whitehead backs up this story with his own recounting of the events. "When we started Evening Star, it was always our goal to move beyond 2D pixel art into 3D games, and develop all-new, original IP," he says. "Evening Star did work with Sega to explore possible directions Classic Sonic could go after the success of Sonic Mania. Sonic Mania 2 was never in development, though, because we actually agreed early on that we should try to make something fresh, like hand-drawn 2D or 2.5D. At the same time, Evening Star was developing our new Star Engine, so we also ended up making a cool Sonic prototype that played with depth in 2.5D, and some other gameplay ideas."

Following those initial planning sessions and a mutual decision to not proceed with development, Evening Star began work on Penny's Big Breakaway. "As Iizuka-san said, though, [Evening Star] did not continue to full production on the game, at which point Arzest took the helm and made Superstars alongside Sonic Team," Whitehead says. "We moved forward with our plans to develop an original 3D title, which is, of course, Penny's Big Breakaway! Superstars looks awesome and our team is really excited to play it when it comes out."

Whitehead also dashed away one of the big points of speculation among Sonic fans: that Sonic Mania 2 falling through was the result of bad blood between Sega and members of Evening Star. "Contrary to any rumors, we maintain a friendly relationship with Sega and hope fans are pumped to play both games once they release," he says.
 
This feels a bit misrepresentative of the actual events.

okay, forgive my half-remembered snippets where the team instead [checks notes] made a 2.5D new Sonic test from the Mania team (that I wrongly called a “sequel”) that Sega “mutually” decided with them wasn’t gonna cut it — and then did a similar thing with Arzest instead — while the Mania team moved onto an original project where the opening trailer says “WHEN BIG TALENT… GETS YOU IN BIG TROUBLE…” accidentally showing up an emperor while the stock enemies look like little Sonic penguins — and released this PR statement about good terms with Sega after they dropped the Penny trailer in a Nintendo Direct

all that aside being my misrepresentation of a PR statement,

I just meant that the person being responded to wasn’t SAYING that this was a Mania sequel — just that Sega didn’t go for a new game by the Mania team and thought Superstars would be the better project

which we don’t know was even Sega’s thinking

I was just clarifying that I don’t think that’s what the previous poster meant
 
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while the Mania team moved onto an original project where the opening trailer says “WHEN BIG TALENT… GETS YOU IN BIG TROUBLE…” accidentally showing up an emperor while the stock enemies look like little Sonic penguins
holy fuck
 
holy fuck
it’s even zanier because the rest of the text is something like “ya gotta pull out the big tricks to make yer big break!”



I just… I couldn’t stop laughing at the implications
 
while the Mania team moved onto an original project where the opening trailer says “WHEN BIG TALENT… GETS YOU IN BIG TROUBLE…” accidentally showing up an emperor while the stock enemies look like little Sonic penguins
Okay this is too hilarious not to headcanon

What? Aren't casuals just downloading games all the time while all hardcore gamers are obsessed about never buying anything digitally and preach about the evils of the all digital future on youtube?
Japan is still heavy on physical retail for casual purchases.
 
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