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Rumour Digital Foundry: A mid-generation Switch refresh was canceled internally

I don’t think too many people were thinking we were getting a “Switch Pro.” The past several months, at least in the future hardware thread, the consensus was that spec wise the next thing to come out was essentially a “next Gen” upgrade. So this news doesn’t move the needle much IMO.

The interesting nugget of information is John thinking it won’t come out in 2023. Now I will say that 2024 would line up with “halfway through its life” quote from around the OLED launch. The OLED could essentially have hit the market for a full 3 years if a successor launches Fall of 2024.

That being said I still think we are getting a new device next year. But if for some reason it doesn’t happen, Nintendo has essentially set themselves up for a strong 2023 regardless. We’re going to get several more Splatoon 3 updates well into 2024. A full year of MK8 updates. Xenoblade will be getting its meaty story dlc update next year. Fire Emblem Engage already announced its expansion pass. I’m sure Zelda will also get an expansion pass.

And then there’s Metroid Prime 4, Pokémon, etc for next holiday possibly. Plus any new game announcements between now and summer 2023.

So yeah, Nintendo has stuff in the pipeline for next year. I can see third party support winding down quite a bit over 2023 as they look to late 2023 or 2024 for new hardware. But from a first party perspective there’s no sign of output slowing down to “we’re finished with this console” levels.
 
AranPrime said:
Nah, late 2023 is Prime Remake followed 6-8 months later by Prime 4. Assuming Retro started development in late 2018, that's 5.5 years of development. Discounting one year of delay due to the pandemic and I'd say they'd about ready to ship.
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It coming in February-May 2024 is still secretly my dream.
I hope it gets announced at February Direct so the suffering that has been the Metroid Prime Remake speculation/rumors comes to an end.
Wouldn't be that far fetched either as we got Splatoon 3 reveal there, coming only late summer of the following year.
 
I've totally lost track of the saga.

I remember 2nd gen chip (Mariko) was red box Switch and Switch Lite. And I thought Oled was the 2021 Mariko unit, and then there was Dane and Drake, but I thought one was originally be a mid gen upgrade for 2021, but when Oled came out everyone was disappointed that it wasn't an upgrade.

That's approximately my understanding. Can someone write a decent explainer on it?

I'm still butt hurt that they didn't give the red box model the ability to run at docked clocks while portable.
 
There's a really obvious slot in the Switch timeline for a cancelled revision... in 2019-2020. Given how John is talking about this, I'm going to assume that's what he's referring to until a compelling alternate explanation surfaces.
 
Nintendo could in theory be totally fine launching Switch 2 in 2024. Next year could have Zelda, Metroid, 2D Mario, or even, dare I say, Donkey Kong. Pokemon, Splatoon and Mario Kart DLC as well. Then various smaller titles throughout the year. Have 3D Mario ready to go in 2024 for the Switch 2, there's no urgency to launch it with the first Switch, the 3D Mario series is already very saturated on it as is.
 
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bmfrosty said:
I remember 2nd gen chip (Mariko) was red box Switch and Switch Lite. And I thought Oled was the 2021 Mariko unit, and then there was Dane and Drake, but I thought one was originally be a mid gen upgrade for 2021, but when Oled came out everyone was disappointed that it wasn't an upgrade.

That's approximately my understanding. Can someone write a decent explainer on it?
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Dane came from Kopite who leaked the new Switch SoC to be codename T239/Dane, he admitted he got the name wrong. Dane is not in the NVN2 files, T239 is Drake. There is no evidence that Dane was a separate mid-gen upgrade intended for a 2021 release.
 
like i said earlier, i expected this shit at most in 2021. It didn't happen so it wont happen anymore imo.

Switch 2 it is.
 
Seems pretty obvious. Dev kits for... something, have been out there for years, and it's taken way longer for anything to materialize from those than could reasonably be expected.
 
Marce-chan said:
It coming in February-May 2024 is still secretly my dream.
I hope it gets announced at February Direct so the suffering that has been the Metroid Prime Remake speculation/rumors comes to an end.
Wouldn't be that far fetched either as we got Splatoon 3 reveal there, coming only late summer of the following year.
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Feb Direct will be all about Zelda since they know it will overshadow everything. Game comes out in May and then the following month its E3 which is when I expect them to finally show off Metroid. With Zelda out of the way, all focus will be on Metroid Prime 4 as the last big game on the Switch.
 
I believe him but the part about Nintendo being nervous about it seems more like an opinion that I don’t really agree with

Logically I don’t think there’s going to be much of a practical difference between what a would be Switch pro would have been and switch 2 other than better hardware. I don’t think it will be radically different than the switch concept that we currently have

But If MS and Sony are seriously locked in till like 2028 before they release new systems it makes a lot of sense to run down the clock a bit till they can release a new system in 2023/2024 that can keep better pace with those systems tech wise until they decide to release new systems and pull with 3rd party support for the remainder of this gen than a switch pro 2021 would have been able to

Releasing a new generation for themselves asymmetrically with the competition benifited them massively last cycle so I guess it makes sense “why not just do the thing we did last time again?”
 
I feel like if they had something mid-gen that got cancelled, it would be something distinct from what we've mostly been getting rumors/leaks/hacked data from for the last two years. The T239 doesn't seem like anything that has been cancelled, or that could've been ready to use before now. EDIT: Or much like what one would expect for a mid-gen upgrade, for that matter.
 
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Lord Azrael said:
Seems pretty obvious. Dev kits for... something, have been out there for years, and it's taken way longer for anything to materialize from those than could reasonably be expected.
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The whole dev kits being on the hands of third party developers since 2020 is something that kinda bugs me.
I mean, if Nintendo intends to release this thing in 2023/24, then wtf they gave it to third parties that soon? Just so it would double the chances of it leaking? IIRC Switch dev kits were distributed like mid 2016 according to rumors.
There's a chance they gave a more powerful/next gen dev kit so it would somehow make the work of porting games to Switch or making Switch games on their engines easier or something.
 
I haven't given a shit about all this successor talk, more interested in living in the moment and enjoying all the current Switch games plus future ones in the pipeline.

Hardware speculation was interesting in the wii u Era when the hardware was deeply flawed and the software front was barren.

Switch Era is different, a massive catalog of games on well designed hardware that was super forward thinking. I'm all about enjoying living in the moment.

I'm sure Nintendo will have new hardware in the future and I'm sure I'll buy it and love it, but spending years pinning for a hardware refresh is a waste of time and energy. It will get here when it gets here.
 
Marce-chan said:
The whole dev kits being on the hands of third party developers since 2020 is something that kinda bugs me.
I mean, if Nintendo intends to release this thing in 2023/24, then wtf they gave it to third parties that soon? Just so it would double the chances of it leaking? IIRC Switch dev kits were distributed like mid 2016 according to rumors.
There's a chance they gave a more powerful/next gen dev kit so it would somehow make the work of porting games to Switch or making Switch games on their engines easier or something.
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The premise of the thread implies that those devkits were intended for a mid-gen upgrade that never materialized, not for the succ.
 
In the end, as other people have said, the next system being a "revision" or a "successor", a "Pro" or a "2" will ultimately come down to a marketing decision. Drake/NVN2 is already rumoured as a full-generation upgrade. How Nintendo handles it, in terms of BC and crossgen transition is what seems most important
 
This gives me hope that many of Nintendo’s recent games have been designed with scalability in mind so hopefully whenever a Switch 2 or whatever does come out, the previous titles will be able to get a boost with minimal if any effort.
 
With all due respect, I'm not sure they had or have reliable info about actual Nintendo hardware pipeline development
 
bmfrosty said:
I've totally lost track of the saga.

I remember 2nd gen chip (Mariko) was red box Switch and Switch Lite. And I thought Oled was the 2021 Mariko unit, and then there was Dane and Drake, but I thought one was originally be a mid gen upgrade for 2021, but when Oled came out everyone was disappointed that it wasn't an upgrade.

That's approximately my understanding. Can someone write a decent explainer on it?

I'm still butt hurt that they didn't give the red box model the ability to run at docked clocks while portable.
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Correct, the three models currently on sale are all Mariko units.

Bloomberg reported for a while that a Switch capable of 4K graphics (and DLSS) was in the works, and in June 2021 said the announcement was imminent. Additionally, we knew from a Nvidia leaker of a chip known as Dane that would fit the bill (and IIRC they suggested themselves it was for Nintendo). A month later we got the OLED Model announcement with no graphical improvement to speak of, still on Mariko.

However, some insiders claimed this device was still coming, and evidence for a new chip built for Nintendo continued to mount through a Nvidia data breach (I'm not referring to it as a leak as it was the result of an illegal cyberattack). Some details were unsurprising, such as an architecture that would have Tensor cores, supporting the DLSS info. Other info was surprising, such as the name - it was Drake, not Dane. There's theories as to whether Dane was a planned chip that actually existed at some point or whether it was just a mix-up the entire time. It doesn't really matter; Drake's details corroborated what insiders heard, and is likely the only chip we ever truly got wind of.

And now we're here. Notably, John doesn't go as far as to claim when or what device exactly was cancelled, just that a mid-gen refresh was planned "at one point" and now is not. Many have interpreted this to mean the OLED Model was supposed to have some sort of spec bump (I personally think there's some holes in this idea, but there's holes in every theory right now) at one point, Nintendo ultimately decided they didn't need one, and the Drake stuff we've been hearing about has been the next-gen hardware the entire time and is thus unrelated by this cancellation. However, in response, Nate revealed he's been hearing for a few months that the exact device he's heard about for 2023 is no longer coming to market, though he isn't ruling out the possibility Nintendo uses Drake in some other sort of device (draw whatever conclusion you want from that) that likely comes sometime later. Many are struggling to reconcile a timeline where a 2023 refresh got canned this late in the game if there's also a successor just a year-ish down the road from that anyway (as the two projects existing at the same time and using the same chip would be a rather strange scenario), and are thus dismissing Nate's info as bunk.

I'm in a wait and see mode myself. At present, I'm not expecting significant hardware in 2023.

Serif said:
Dane came from Kopite who leaked the new Switch SoC to be codename T239/Dane, he admitted he got the name wrong. Dane is not in the NVN2 files, T239 is Drake. There is no evidence that Dane was a separate mid-gen upgrade intended for a 2021 release.
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There's some tomfoolery in the Nvidia data breach suggesting Dane maybe possibly was something, but no one really knows.
 
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It's too late to release a Switch Pro

on the other hand releasing a next generation console next year doesn't make sense

Zelda TotK is only using BotW engine, the difference in visuals won't be apparent enough to be a big selling point for next generation switch
 
Be funny if it's just a marketing change; one minute Nintendo were going to market Drake hardware as an iterative upgrade, now they're going to market it as the next gen Switch.
 
Formula Zero said:
It's too late to release a Switch Pro

on the other hand releasing a next generation console next year doesn't make sense

Zelda TotK is only using BotW engine, the difference in visuals won't be apparent enough to be a big selling point for next generation switch
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A new console is already late in the game, they cant wait to lose all momentum to release a new device. Its called a transition and Nintendo doesnt seem to understand it.
 
I was under the impression the next Switch was effectively Switch 2 anyway, however they market it.
 
Maxrunner said:
A new console is already late in the game, they cant wait to lose all momentum to release a new device. Its called a transition and Nintendo doesnt seem to understand it.
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Nintendo literally just had their 3rd best year of Switch, losing only to the two hyper charged pandemic years. Nintendo Switch still has plenty of momentum and compelling software to carry it through 2023 without needing new hardware.
 
My hope was for literally any hardware to come out in 2023 in tandem with TOTK. Super sad that this makes it less plausible. I wonder if Nintendo are gonna move on from the Switch or keep supporting it because that might hinder the scope of some "next gen" titles if they don't fully move on.
 
At first I was like oh no, if the rumored dev kits were for this canceled iteration, then that sure puts a dent in my prediction of the succ coming out in May 23.

Thinking about it though, and maybe this is the copium talking, a canceled pro version more likely means a switch successor version is moved up, not down the line, right, pro versions are a way to extend a console cycle. And we all knew Drake was a full generation ahead of Mariko anyway, so that's a successor and not this canceled pro version. Wouldn't be surprised if the internal cancelation coincided with the delay of TotK.

Why I'm still on team May 23 is because of the almost complete lack of TotK advertisement now (disclaimer: that I'm seeing at least). Now I know what you say, TotK doesn't need advertisement, they could wait until launch to release a launch trailer and it will still sell gangbusters. But we're in the holiday period and TotK hype sells consoles. Yet all the ads I'm getting on Instagram is a few on FE Engage, but primarily the Bayonetta spinoff. Now instagram might now I'm forty with three kids, so prime candidate for an indie like story driven game, but also a prime candidate to buy more switches. This to me reads like Nintendo isn't pulling stops to sell more hardware this holiday season (are there even nice limited editions?), but focusing on software, because they need people to buy hardware in the new year.
 
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Good, a mid gen upgrade hasnt made much sense at all since the OLED announcement. It would only delay a true successor.

eye0h said:
My hope was for literally any hardware to come out in 2023 in tandem with TOTK. Super sad that this makes it less plausible. I wonder if Nintendo are gonna move on from the Switch or keep supporting it because that might hinder the scope of some "next gen" titles if they don't fully move on.
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I think there's a pretty good chance for a TotK OLED version - Almost a bit surprising they havnt released more special editions than they have honestly. If the next console releases in 2024, I think there's a decent amount of software still coming to OG Switch for another year or so.
 
I feel that if we were getting a Switch revision in time for TOTK we'd have heard strong rumours about it by now. The fact we're 5 months away now and we're still largely making blind hypotheses based on little tidbits of conflicting information doesn't exactly scream that Nintendo are prepping a new console for immediate launch.

I'm still also largely unconvinced by the argument that 'Nintendo absolutely need to have a new Zelda at the launch of their new console.' It'd be nice sure, but they have other heavy hitters they can call on. My money's on Metroid Prime 4 as Switch 2 launch game at this stage
 
Galgavias said:
I feel that if we were getting a Switch revision in time for TOTK we'd have heard strong rumours about it by now. The fact we're 5 months away now and we're still largely making blind hypotheses based on little tidbits of conflicting information doesn't exactly scream that Nintendo are prepping a new console for immediate launch.

I'm still also largely unconvinced by the argument that 'Nintendo absolutely need to have a new Zelda at the launch of their new console.' It'd be nice sure, but they have other heavy hitters they can call on. My money's on Metroid Prime 4 as Switch 2 launch game at this stage
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I agree and if they really need a Zelda game at launch they could always remake ocarina of time with shiny new graphics, qol improvements, new bonus Temple, side quest etc, and it would move the new console, in my opinion.
 
Galgavias said:
I feel that if we were getting a Switch revision in time for TOTK we'd have heard strong rumours about it by now. The fact we're 5 months away now and we're still largely making blind hypotheses based on little tidbits of conflicting information doesn't exactly scream that Nintendo are prepping a new console for immediate launch.

I'm still also largely unconvinced by the argument that 'Nintendo absolutely need to have a new Zelda at the launch of their new console.' It'd be nice sure, but they have other heavy hitters they can call on. My money's on Metroid Prime 4 as Switch 2 launch game at this stage
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They certainly don't need it (though they're still more or less 1:1 when it comes to successful consoles that release with Zelda and unsuccessful consoles that release without Zelda), but it would be a waste not to. For Zelda maybe even more than for the new hardware. Because Zelda's released in the early stages of a console sell three times as much as Zelda's at the end of a console.
 
spekkeh said:
They certainly don't need it (though they're still more or less 1:1 when it comes to successful consoles that release with Zelda and unsuccessful consoles that release without Zelda), but it would be a waste not to. For Zelda maybe even more than for the new hardware. Because Zelda's released in the early stages of a console sell three times as much as Zelda's at the end of a console.
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And we're ignoring Nintendo's handheld dominance which has never launched with Zelda because...?
 
Ah man, I was really hoping for a pro upgrade in 2023. I never seen them being wrong with these type of stuff so I'm going to believe what they say. Now the question is when will Nintendo release a new console that is not in the Switch family. My guess is end of 2024 at the earliest.
 
I really want some non-vague answers on backward compatibility plans even if they are not ready to reveal hardware. Just a specific "don't worry we got you covered" type of statement directly about backward compatibility would make me more excited and less nervous about a potential successor to the Switch.

I want to be a part of the ever-growing crowd of people eager for new hardware and speculating but, without specific backward compatibility answers, it just leaves me with anxiety.
 
BradenAndEggs said:
I really want some non-vague answers on backward compatibility plans even if they are not ready to reveal hardware. Just a specific "don't worry we got you covered" type of statement directly about backward compatibility would make me more excited and less nervous about a potential successor to the Switch.

I want to be a part of the ever-growing crowd of people eager for new hardware and speculating but, without specific backward compatibility answers, it just leaves me with anxiety.
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Given everything, I'd assume backwards compatibility is basically all but officially confirmed. Furukawa has been talking about "establishing long term relationships with customers through a Nintendo account" for a while. Iwata talked about the iPhone ecosystem for a bit back then, too.

I'd assume that whatever releases next, it's gonna play OG switch games. If they get enhancements or not that's a different thing, and likely a game per game decision, but I'm expecting them to be playable at least.

Also to consider: originally the switch was gonna be an enhanced 3DS with TV out, and a 3DS backwards compatibility board was considered for switch. It's likely they absolutely tried to have backwards compatibility on switch, but ultimately decided on a clean break of sorts.
 
Tangerine_Cookie said:
Given everything, I'd assume backwards compatibility is basically all but officially confirmed. Furukawa has been talking about "establishing long term relationships with customers through a Nintendo account" for a while. Iwata talked about the iPhone ecosystem for a bit back then, too.

I'd assume that whatever releases next, it's gonna play OG switch games. If they get enhancements or not that's a different thing, and likely a game per game decision, but I'm expecting them to be playable at least.

Also to consider: originally the switch was gonna be an enhanced 3DS with TV out, and a 3DS backwards compatibility board was considered for switch. It's likely they absolutely tried to have backwards compatibility on switch, but ultimately decided on a clean break of sorts.
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I didn't know that about the Switch's 3DS successor origins! Really fascinating! What an interesting peek inside where Nintendo's thought processes were at that point in time!
 
spekkeh said:
They certainly don't need it (though they're still more or less 1:1 when it comes to successful consoles that release with Zelda and unsuccessful consoles that release without Zelda), but it would be a waste not to. For Zelda maybe even more than for the new hardware. Because Zelda's released in the early stages of a console sell three times as much as Zelda's at the end of a console.
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I think we've had a similar conversation in another thread, and I really don't think you need to worry about how much TOTK is going to sell. We live in a world where Elden Ring did approx 17.5m in 9 months, and as amazing as that is, a well reviewed and received TOTK can absolutely do numbers in the same ballpark. And then it'll keep on selling beyond that if it gets cross gen content with the new Nintendo console.

It's not a simple case of 'BOTW sold 30m so TOTK selling less would be bad'. Nintendo's objectives for both games are different. BOTW has slow burned its way to 30m over nearly 6 years of steady sales. TOTK is launching now because it will generate a huge amount of income in one chunk and be a key objective in Nintendo's financial strategy for 2023.
 
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