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Rumour Developers and Analysts Sound Off: Does the Next-Gen Nintendo Switch Need to Happen in 2024?

Kind of feels like there's an aire of fear within Nintendo when it comes to the next system; Nintendo's console success has been inconsistent in the past (less so for handhelds) and this will be the first system that releases under furukawa's leadership.
 
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FeiFongWong said:
Different people complain about different things. Shocking.

Bring on the new hardware as fast as possible. I have enough of inferior versions of even simplistic games like octopath traveler 2.
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Not sure where the salt is coming from, I don't find it shocking either ;)

The point is that Nintendo hasn't catered to the hardware-enthusiast crowd in ages (arguably they never truly did with any of their systems) so even the rumoured new hardware would hardly change this in significant ways - but I suppose every upgrade is better than nothing.

They will continue to opt for affordable hardware that can run their own games well (enough) and the tech will likely be outdated by the time the system releases anyways. Hopefully implementing DLSS and the likes may be able to alleviate a bit of the hardware gap to the PS5/Series X and the rumoured PS5 pro so the Switch successor can get some of the more recent multiple games (gimme Diablo 4!).

I am very much looking forward to the hardware bump, but if you have enough of "inferior" multplat version, I doubt the Switch successor will solve that for you.

My guess is holiday 2024. 2025 feels like it would be stretching it too far, but then again that's how 2024 felt back in 2021 so there is that. And if waiting another year would mean to get a more significant hardware bump, I could maybe live with that too.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
The only time in recent memory they've had a particularly short cycle was Wii U, and sure, both fans complained.
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While technically the Wii did not have a short life cycle looking at when the WiiU came out, the last few years were just dreadful when it comes to 1st party support. The same pretty much happened on the N64 and the GameCube.

For home systems I would say they never managed such a consistent support - not since the SNES says anyways.
 
Honestly, Nintendo has shown that they are still supporting switch with both first and third party games. I’m all for getting the new system but if I don’t get it at launch , no worries I got tons to play on switch.
 
I want them to replace it so I can get better hardware, but that's less to do with specs and more that the literal hardware of my Switch is falling apart lol
 
Simplistic games like Octopath Traveler 2? Thanks for the heads up to put you on ignore.

My only hope is that Nintendo uses any extra time before releasing a new console to improve the internal specs. In other words, they should not wait until 2025 to release the same hardware they had ready in 2024, they should be steadily optimizing and reducing costs.
 
Shinespark said:
Simplistic games like Octopath Traveler 2? Thanks for the heads up to put you on ignore.
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Well, yeah. Low res textures/sprites, simple geometries, small areas, crazy lighting. But because it's built with multiplatform middleware and Switch is on the low end of the curve, it ends up with worse frame rate and resolution than something like Tears of the Kingdom.
 
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Armoured_Bear said:
This.

Sick of jaggies, low-res textures, no AA, shimmering etc.
I can only imagine that most of the people here who continue to be delighted with Switch tech, do not own other consoles or PC.
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Nah, I have a PS5. I definitely want better image quality and performance + whatever new design choices can be enabled with better hardware but I’m not someone who can’t go back to older consoles or systems
 
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You don't want to launch without a big draw in terms of a launch game and first year lineup, but you also don't want to wait until your current console(s) completely lose steam like Nintendo has in the past. Switch is doing better this year than most people thought, so they're probably fine waiting until holiday 2024 if they need to, but anything past I think they start running the risk of losing momentum. As we saw with Wii and DS, it's not always a slow decline: things can just dive off a cliff.

I'm pretty confident Nintendo has learned these lessons and will (and is well prepared for) launch in 2024 at some point.
 
Agnezenn said:
You don't want to launch without a big draw in terms of a launch game and first year lineup, but you also don't want to wait until your current console(s) completely lose steam like Nintendo has in the past. Switch is doing better this year than most people thought, so they're probably fine waiting until holiday 2024 if they need to, but anything past I think they start running the risk of losing momentum. As we saw with Wii and DS, it's not always a slow decline: things can just dive off a cliff.

I'm pretty confident Nintendo has learned these lessons and will (and is well prepared for) launch in 2024 at some point.
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It really doesn’t help that the follow up devices to the Wii/DS were complete messes so any momentum Wii/DS built in their final years would have been squandered anyway. At least 3DS recovered somewhat.
 
Spyder said:
Also you all want a next gen console, you don’t need one. Big difference.
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Well yeah, obviously. No one NEEDS a new console, or any console for that matter. It's all just hopes and dreams. But of course I want a more powerful, better, more fully-featured console that makes games look and run better, I don't see how that's a bad thing.
 
Spyder said:
Also you all want a next gen console, you don’t need one. Big difference.
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We don't need anything related to Nintendo or video games in general. Like yeah what you're saying is true, but we're on a video game forum, so nothing being discussed is going to be anything folks need. People are going to use superlatives like "need" to exaggerate their desire for something and it should be pretty well understood what's meant within the context of talking about video games unless you're being uncharitable, petty, or lack the contextual literacy to understand the meaning.
 
maybe Nintendo will only launch the Switch sucessor, ounce the Switch managed to surpass DS/PS2 becoming the best selling hardware of all time.
 
...Okay, I'll be the one to ask: why is this labeled as a rumor thread when the article is just someone asking developers when they hope Nintendo releases the next Switch? Is OP saying these devs may not exist?
confusion-turmoil.gif
 
I would personally like new hardware sooner than 2025. I don't think we need it - Nintendo has shown that they can keep releasing incredible titles, and while the performance may often not be ideal, it's not experience-ruining for most people it seems. But I would like it. Aside from making games run and/or look better, Nintendo clearly has some talented, ambitious developers, and I'm excited to see what they can do with newer hardware.

On the other hand, I find takes like
Phantom Thief said:
we are past the point of absurdity
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a little bit embarrassing. I think we can have discussions about the benefits of transitioning to new hardware sooner rather than later (from either a consumer or business perspective) without resorting to hyperbole or doomposting.
 
Im on Team Early 2025 because Nintendo First Party still doing well I don't think there is a need internally for "Switch 2".
 
Dark Cloud said:
“Doing well” doesn’t mean switch 2 doesn’t need to come for the business. So many people think sales need to die, momentum needs to be dead, then we can bring next gen.
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Right, why I think the 2024 holiday season for the NSW won't do as well as previous as we are expecting a PS5 Pro and probably another consumer tech to take the lead.
 
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Dark Cloud said:
“Doing well” doesn’t mean switch 2 doesn’t need to come for the business. So many people think sales need to die, momentum needs to be dead, then we can bring next gen.
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But alternatively, the Switch isn't just doing well and currently is experiencing another major windfall through the sheer brute force of Nintendo pushing their IPs again. The Super Mario Bros Movie/Tears of the Kingdom one-two punch has been at worst an extraordinary showing for a console as late in life in Switch. We'll see where things go, but for all the talk of momentum "dying out", Switch then posts another insane headline about how much it sells or how it just had its best June ever in Japan. A lot of the decreases people push as the "death" of momentum are really just defined as such because Covid was an insane time where the Switch absolutely exploded at a time when people had money to spend (those that were lucky enough to keep jobs that is, many also suffered of course). The economic conditions of 2023 for your average person are just a different beast and leisure money over the past year has heavily moved back in favor of experiences that people were yearning for during the worst of Covid and gaming was not one of them.

Switch is still selling really healthily when you consider all the factors. I don't know what it'll look like in a year, but Nintendo is currently proving all they need to maintain momentum is just release great games that get good press and promote their branding in a major way to pull that interest back over. And Nintendo is a company extremely capable of doing that at any given time. The Switch may not be breaking records (maybe not, again, the darn thing just did break some in June) but that's also a long distance from "momentum dead" and/or "dying".

And I've always thought the "momentum" point was a little misplaced. Nintendo's simply too damn timeless and too huge brand recognition wise at this point. Nintendo has consistently shown that they can pull audiences back in with enjoyable hardware and games.

I mean investors are another story, but that's purely idiotic capitalist tendencies running the ship and not sales reality or long-term sustainability.
 
I know the scenarios aren't the exact same, but I think it might be valuable to look at the PS3 and 4's final years before declaring that Switch's incredible 2023 is indicative of a successor not being 'necessary' any time soon. If we simply look at major - truly 'blockbuster' - titles which were released within the year prior to their successors' releases, we have:

PS3:
Call of Duty: Black Ops 2
Far Cry 3
The Last of Us
Bioshock Infinite
Grand Theft Auto V

PS4:
Death Stranding
Modern Warfare 2019
The Last of Us: Part 2
Ghost of Tsushima
Final Fantasy VII Remake

...and that's all before we factor in 'not as massive' titles (e.g. GoW: Ascension, Doom Eternal, Crysis 3, etc), and all of the big cross-gen releases (AC4:Black Flag/Valhalla, CoD: Ghosts/Cold War, Miles Morales, etc). These platforms - and their games - were still doing very well up until, and after, their successors' release. That's despite the general public knowing that those successors were releasing. Similarly, the consoles that released afterwards were instant successes as well; the fact that a bunch of bangers released for the old systems before them didn't prevent that happening in the slightest.

Any which way, I do think that Nintendo waiting until the Switch is on it's 'last legs' - when its software sales are dying up, everybody owns one, and even the most graphics-averse people think things are looking 'slightly less than good' - would be a mistake. There's virtue in being patient with things but there's such a thing as waiting too long.
 
EricTheGamerman said:
But alternatively, the Switch isn't just doing well and currently is experiencing another major windfall through the sheer brute force of Nintendo pushing their IPs again. The Super Mario Bros Movie/Tears of the Kingdom one-two punch has been at worst an extraordinary showing for a console as late in life in Switch. We'll see where things go, but for all the talk of momentum "dying out", Switch then posts another insane headline about how much it sells or how it just had its best June ever in Japan. A lot of the decreases people push as the "death" of momentum are really just defined as such because Covid was an insane time where the Switch absolutely exploded at a time when people had money to spend (those that were lucky enough to keep jobs that is, many also suffered of course). The economic conditions of 2023 for your average person are just a different beast and leisure money over the past year has heavily moved back in favor of experiences that people were yearning for during the worst of Covid and gaming was not one of them.

Switch is still selling really healthily when you consider all the factors. I don't know what it'll look like in a year, but Nintendo is currently proving all they need to maintain momentum is just release great games that get good press and promote their branding in a major way to pull that interest back over. And Nintendo is a company extremely capable of doing that at any given time. The Switch may not be breaking records (maybe not, again, the darn thing just did break some in June) but that's also a long distance from "momentum dead" and/or "dying".

And I've always thought the "momentum" point was a little misplaced. Nintendo's simply too damn timeless and too huge brand recognition wise at this point. Nintendo has consistently shown that they can pull audiences back in with enjoyable hardware and games.

I mean investors are another story, but that's purely idiotic capitalist tendencies running the ship and not sales reality or long-term sustainability.
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Nintendo Switch has the best selling month on june, Super Mario Bros Wonder will be a evergreen game, they no need to panic, if Nintendo have/has a lot of engaging IP, just release a 3D/2D Mario, Legend of Zelda on the console and Nintendo can wait until 2025/2026 to launch Switch sucessor.
 
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I think Q4 2024 sounds right. Nintendo has a lot of flagship IPs that haven’t had a new game in 2-3 years that are likely being saved for the next console and they can capitalize on a strong first couple of years. 2025 and later would surprise me - I don’t think Nintendo will be sitting on those chips and hardware forever.

That said I’m personally in no rush to drop 400 quid or so on another console. Switch Lite gets lots of playtime from me
 
Agnezenn said:
You don't want to launch without a big draw in terms of a launch game and first year lineup, but you also don't want to wait until your current console(s) completely lose steam like Nintendo has in the past. Switch is doing better this year than most people thought, so they're probably fine waiting until holiday 2024 if they need to, but anything past I think they start running the risk of losing momentum. As we saw with Wii and DS, it's not always a slow decline: things can just dive off a cliff.

I'm pretty confident Nintendo has learned these lessons and will (and is well prepared for) launch in 2024 at some point.
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did Nintendo really see the urge of launching the Switch sucessor next year, the Switch is still selling well, why launch it sucessor next year, when Switch sales are still good?
 
Mekanos said:
I think Q4 2024 sounds right. Nintendo has a lot of flagship IPs that haven’t had a new game in 2-3 years that are likely being saved for the next console and they can capitalize on a strong first couple of years. 2025 and later would surprise me - I don’t think Nintendo will be sitting on those chips and hardware forever.

That said I’m personally in no rush to drop 400 quid or so on another console. Switch Lite gets lots of playtime from me
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as a see in a youtuber i follow, dont pay for a console that is not garantee it could be a Wii U 2.0 or a sucess like Switch, maybe Nintendo should stick with Switch until 2025, is not garantee Switch sucessor could be a sucess, why waste $400 in a console,that is 50/50% chance of been a failure like a Wii U or a sucess like Switch.
 
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EricTheGamerman said:
But alternatively, the Switch isn't just doing well and currently is experiencing another major windfall through the sheer brute force of Nintendo pushing their IPs again. The Super Mario Bros Movie/Tears of the Kingdom one-two punch has been at worst an extraordinary showing for a console as late in life in Switch. We'll see where things go, but for all the talk of momentum "dying out", Switch then posts another insane headline about how much it sells or how it just had its best June ever in Japan.
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Extraordinary for a system this old, yes. But Nintendo's hardware forecast for the year is still 52% of what it was three years earlier, so there's the momentum.
 
2023 ‘reinvigoration’ could end up being a spike right around the Tears launch. We may yet see big drop after the hype has cooled.

I trust Nintendo’s somewhat tame FY estimate. At the time they probably thought they’d need something by end of 2024. I’m assuming that even if this year’s sales surprise Nintendo - and again, it’s far too early to say they will - they won’t be course correcting to squeeze the stone another 6-12 months because of it.

Now one reason I could see a shift out of 2024 happening is if development of key launch window / year titles isn’t going smoothly. As others have said, they shouldn’t and won’t rush this thing to market. Switch has such a strong position and all of the ‘Nintendo is concerned about next-gen’ talk is probably about a heightened care in holding that position.
 
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I feel like Nintendo themselves can still do a lot with the Switch, and even if they still have this momentum for the Switch, I also feel like it's time to move on. The tech is now almost 6 years old, and I'm not only talking about graphics or CPU's and shizzle. But also like how the Switch introduced us to hybrid gaming where you can play on TV and switch over to handheld. I feel like we might get something new on terms like that aswell. They might keep the hybrid aspect in the successor, it's a big part of the selling point of the Switch, so they might want to go deeper into that. But what that is, I have no clue. I'm not really experienced in technology, haha. But yeah, while the Switch is still selling good, I feel like after 6 years, we're up for something new.
 
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JoshuaJSlone said:
Extraordinary for a system this old, yes. But Nintendo's hardware forecast for the year is still 52% of what it was three years earlier, so there's the momentum.
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You're still using an astronomically unique Covid data point to make that comparison though. That's the problem. I'm not saying a new Switch absolutely shouldn't come, but I think all the talk of momentum is exhausting when Switch is still doing this well.

I also just don't really get the momentum point... Like genuinely who is buying Nintendo consoles and deciding NOT to buy them on the basis of Nintendo having a less successful year. The next Nintendo system will still be a hot commodity... it will still probably launch with a huge new and exciting 3D Mario that will break headlines with possibly Mario Kart and Animal Crossing coming shortly after launch... Why does "Momentum" matter when those things will inspire people to buy regardless of when it arrives if they're good and attractive titles in this day and age?
 
Giancarlo said:
did Nintendo really see the urge of launching the Switch sucessor next year, the Switch is still selling well, why launch it sucessor next year, when Switch sales are still good?
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Do you think it’s prudent if they wait until sales slow down considerably (or drop off a cliff) for them to launch the successor?
 
Giancarlo said:
well Shuntaro Furukawa and Nintendo dont seen to be worried about launching Switch sucessor now, Switch has the best june since it launce in 2017
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Did we think Switch sales wouldn't be amazing on the back of one of the single most, if not the most, monumental releases in the console's history? Don't get me wrong, I think they're going to have a stellar year overall, but again, you don't want to wait until you're having mediocre or bad years to launch the successor. I don't understand the mindset that they need to drain every single last drop from Switch before they drop Switch 2. We've seen what kind of panic decisions those situations lead to and it's not good for the company or for gamers.
 
Giancarlo said:
well Shuntaro Furukawa and Nintendo dont seen to be worried about launching Switch sucessor now, Switch has the best june since it launce in 2017
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The Switch had a really good June, yes, but that doesn't stop the fact that they just barely missed their hardware sales targets for last fiscal year... after already lowering them twice (from 21 million to 19 million to 18 million). Sales are on a general downward slope now (brief spikes from games like TOTK aside), so aiming to have new hardware before that gentle slope becomes a steep one is in their best interest. 2024 is a good time to do that.
 
OctoSplattack said:
The Switch had a really good June, yes, but that doesn't stop the fact that they just barely missed their hardware sales targets for last fiscal year... after already lowering them twice (from 21 million to 19 million to 18 million). Sales are on a general downward slope now (brief spikes from games like TOTK aside), so aiming to have new hardware before that gentle slope becomes a steep one is in their best interest. 2024 is a good time to do that.
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While I think the device is coming out next year, I don’t think Nintendo is that concerned with the Switch sloping a little more. Now if it was the software sales that would be another matter entirely.
In regards to the momentum talk from earlier I think it an overrated topic. The only way momentum will be halted is if Nintendo decides to one up the WiiU in making a conceptually awful device. Even if Wii/DS had momentum going into the WiiU/3DS, do people think it would have meant anything? The answer is no btw.
 
OctoSplattack said:
The Switch had a really good June, yes, but that doesn't stop the fact that they just barely missed their hardware sales targets for last fiscal year... after already lowering them twice (from 21 million to 19 million to 18 million). Sales are on a general downward slope now (brief spikes from games like TOTK aside), so aiming to have new hardware before that gentle slope becomes a steep one is in their best interest. 2024 is a good time to do that.
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I dunno if we can really say TOTK is a "brief spike" at this point, it's still selling more in Japan every week now than it did last year
 
Lugia667 said:
I dunno if we can really say TOTK is a "brief spike" at this point, it's still selling more in Japan every week now than it did last year
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Tear of the Kingdom/Super Mario Bros Wonder are gonna be a evergreen game, with this games Nintendo surely has managed to reach it 15 milions consoles milestone
 
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Agnezenn said:
Did we think Switch sales wouldn't be amazing on the back of one of the single most, if not the most, monumental releases in the console's history? Don't get me wrong, I think they're going to have a stellar year overall, but again, you don't want to wait until you're having mediocre or bad years to launch the successor. I don't understand the mindset that they need to drain every single last drop from Switch before they drop Switch 2. We've seen what kind of panic decisions those situations lead to and it's not good for the company or for gamers.
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But where does this thinking really come from? People talk so much about momentum and then just reference the Wii to Wii U generation... and like, a thousand things killed the Wii U and I honestly don't even put the "momentum from last gen dying down" in the Top Five, maybe even not the Top 10. The "momentum" Nintendo lost was consistent releases that even more crippled the Wii U out the gate when all they had was Nintendo Land and New Super Mario Bros. U for a FULL YEAR after almost 2 years of no releases on Wii except for Skyward Sword in late 2011.

I'm not saying they shouldn't launch a successor again to be clear, but how actually relevant is the idea of "momentum" or is it a case where it has just been repeated so much its been accepted as fact. Like I think people mis-attribute issues with prior console launches with the ideas of momentum.

And then, like, if a console launching later means Nintendo has more cooked up for those first two years, isn't that only going to further enable a console? If it launches in say 2025, that's a whole year of additional development new games could have on the new console leading to a stronger and more robust launch window and first couple years that are going to be crucial for interest.
 
EricTheGamerman said:
But where does this thinking really come from? People talk so much about momentum and then just reference the Wii to Wii U generation... and like, a thousand things killed the Wii U and I honestly don't even put the "momentum from last gen dying down" in the Top Five, maybe even not the Top 10. The "momentum" Nintendo lost was consistent releases that even more crippled the Wii U out the gate when all they had was Nintendo Land and New Super Mario Bros. U for a FULL YEAR after almost 2 years of no releases on Wii except for Skyward Sword in late 2011.

I'm not saying they shouldn't launch a successor again to be clear, but how actually relevant is the idea of "momentum" or is it a case where it has just been repeated so much its been accepted as fact. Like I think people mis-attribute issues with prior console launches with the ideas of momentum.

And then, like, if a console launching later means Nintendo has more cooked up for those first two years, isn't that only going to further enable a console? If it launches in say 2025, that's a whole year of additional development new games could have on the new console leading to a stronger and more robust launch window and first couple years that are going to be crucial for interest.
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You answered your own question in the first paragraph. A declining userbase and people leaving your ecosystem is not what you want before you launch a new console, and if sales of the current consoles decline at an even faster rate than the company was expecting, it can lead them to make panic decisions like 3DS and Wii U launching when they did with abysmal launch lineups. You talked about them like separate issues when it came to barren release schedules, but they're one in the same. Nintendo releasing 3DS right at the end of the fiscal year was not a coincidence - it was a desperate move to save the bottom line that year because they thought DS and Wii would keep printing money.

I would point to PS5 as a good example of why having a highly engaged userbase is important when you launch. Its launch lineup was hardly stellar but it has and continues to sell really well due in part to the fact that Sony went from strength to strength. It's a lot easier to get people to from one product to the next when they're still engaged in the ecosystem than having them lose interest and bring them back. Nintendo's doing that this year because they launched one of the most anticipated games ever, full stop, that lived up to the hype and a surprisingly robust lineup around it. Can they do that for all of 2024 and part of 2025? Seems like a really tall order.
 
Agnezenn said:
You answered your own question in the first paragraph. A declining userbase and people leaving your ecosystem is not what you want before you launch a new console, and if sales of the current consoles decline at an even faster rate than the company was expecting, it can lead them to make panic decisions like 3DS and Wii U launching when they did with abysmal launch lineups. You talked about them like separate issues when it came to barren release schedules, but they're one in the same. Nintendo releasing 3DS right at the end of the fiscal year was not a coincidence - it was a desperate move to save the bottom line that year because they thought DS and Wii would keep printing money.

I would point to PS5 as a good example of why having a highly engaged userbase is important when you launch. Its launch lineup was hardly stellar but it has and continues to sell really well due in part to the fact that Sony went from strength to strength. It's a lot easier to get people to from one product to the next when they're still engaged in the ecosystem than having them lose interest and bring them back. Nintendo's doing that this year because they launched one of the most anticipated games ever, full stop, that lived up to the hype and a surprisingly robust lineup around it. Can they do that for all of 2024 and part of 2025? Seems like a really tall order.
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Nintendo need to provide good games for both Switch and it sucessor, they cant simply here 2024/2025 or later launch the Switch sucessor, and Switch stop having games, the console need to be suported for 2/4 years when Switch sucessor is in the market, to show we are not gonna abandon the huge install base of Switch, dont worry, it sucessor is out in year X, but Switch will still get games for 3/4 more years, that how you do a good transiction/momentum for your next hardware.
 
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As of I see it. Most of the games in the last Direct were 2023 titles, with the Peach game and Luigi's Mansion 2 port in '24.
Iirc, Nintendo did want to release their games within 9 month's of their announcement. The Direct was in June, give it 9 months, we are in February/March. March is where the fiscal year usually ends, and thus a release of the new system in April/May can happen, as furukawa said Nintendo won't bring a new system in this fiscal year. And to be honest, Mario Wonder, LM2 and a Peach game are not really the biggest projects, tho a 2D Mario does sell well. Mario RPG however is big, but not really that big either, imo. It probably is a title meant for closing the year off with something people know it's a bigger issue than a 2D sidescroller.

And then there is Metroid Prime 4, in which I really do not have a clue on.

But looking at all these games, I can see that Ninty is keeping it a bit low, just to show of their upcoming hardware later on
 
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EricTheGamerman said:
But where does this thinking really come from? People talk so much about momentum and then just reference the Wii to Wii U generation... and like, a thousand things killed the Wii U and I honestly don't even put the "momentum from last gen dying down" in the Top Five, maybe even not the Top 10. The "momentum" Nintendo lost was consistent releases that even more crippled the Wii U out the gate when all they had was Nintendo Land and New Super Mario Bros. U for a FULL YEAR after almost 2 years of no releases on Wii except for Skyward Sword in late 2011.

I'm not saying they shouldn't launch a successor again to be clear, but how actually relevant is the idea of "momentum" or is it a case where it has just been repeated so much its been accepted as fact. Like I think people mis-attribute issues with prior console launches with the ideas of momentum.

And then, like, if a console launching later means Nintendo has more cooked up for those first two years, isn't that only going to further enable a console? If it launches in say 2025, that's a whole year of additional development new games could have on the new console leading to a stronger and more robust launch window and first couple years that are going to be crucial for interest.
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There are 2 core reasons:
a) you need a while to prepare new hardware, and it isn't to your benefit to have something and not launch it for years , keeping contracts with suppliers is not possible if you don't provide them with a revenue stream, so you risk loosing some and needing to re negotiate and in parts rework the console. So it's important to anticipate when you'll move on and waiting for the last drop could push it to far back

b) if you loose momentum you risk loosing part of your userbase to a different eco system. Not everybody can have 2 platforms, or even 3, and you won't loose them immediately, but if you loose them it can be hard to get them back. (Say if their switch died and they decide for a ps5, or if the third party Support falls short because of the lack in power comparatively, And they want to play those games)

They also need to prepare games for the new platform. That means less development resources for the old. If they decide to sit on the new ones while the old projects are finishing up, then they can't just make new games for the old platform because it still sells, because game Dev takes time and can't be planned in such short frames.
 
I feel like one thing people forget ALOT about both the Wii U and 3ds launches is that they had really bad timing with real world events. They were both being developed when the massive earthquake and tsunami hit Japan. That affected Nintendo’s pipeline quite a bit in their own worlds.
 
Are we far along enough to finally accept that there was a “fad” component to the Wii’s success, and the switch just, isn’t a fad. We were in a really different time. The Switch is an actually compelling product that just fits into how a huge portion of people play games.
 
Next year sounds reasonable for a new console and the beginning of a crossgen period. This is the way you keep both current Switch users who don't care much about hardware and graphics enthusiasts happy, as well as studios that want a more powerful system.
 
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Rooster said:
The thought that the successor will arrive only when it's needed is a faulty premise to begin with.

Nintendo has a very strong history of its consoles losing their steam (if they even had any to begin with) before being replaced with the newer console, so it was seen as needed to get the new one in there.

Especially because in the days before their consolidated dev teams and hardware, in theory you had Nintendo developing games for four systems simultaneously, which would stretch the output for the deprioritized ones pretty thin, and facilitate a need for the successor even more urgently. Now they don't have to do that either; it will be much easier to continue to provide a steady output for the Switch until after the launch of the next system. A lot of the opinions quoted seem contingent on not foregoing the Switch's install base - but given the Switch has actually remained a success to this point, Nintendo probably won't forego its install base as readily as they did with past systems that had already faded prior to be replaced. Switch support will likely continue for a while.

So obviously no, Nintendo doesn't need the successor next year, they'll be fine if it doesn't show up. The bigger profile third-party stuff has petered out a bit the further we get from where the bar set by the other two is, and the more existing ports have come to the system, but that's not an essential aspect to the Switch's viability at this point.

But it probably will arrive all the same next year just because it's time to start the transition. They may not need to, but the real question is, will people buy a new system if one comes out? After seven years, I think many are ready for a new system, and if they don't botch the rollout (or the system itself), the success will endure.

A system doesn't need to be flagging hard to justify the successor. If you look at the Playstation, usually the current one is still doing pretty well when the next one shows up. Sometimes it's just a question of whether sufficient time has lapsed that people are game to grab the new thing. The fact that the expectation for Nintendo systems is to start faltering to herald a new system is an indictment of the legs/success of past ones, not necessarily the way it has to work.
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Nintendo need to provide good games for both Switch and it sucessor, they cant simpy here 2024/2025 or later launch the Switch sucessor and Switch stop having games, the console need to be suported for 3/4 more years when the Switch sucessor is in the market, to show dont worry we are not gonna abandon Switch huge user base, if the successor is out on year X, but the Switch will stil get games 3/4 more years, that how you do a good transiction for your next hardware
 
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