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Rumour Developers and Analysts Sound Off: Does the Next-Gen Nintendo Switch Need to Happen in 2024?

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A number of independent developers I spoke to felt that Nintendo could easily wait until 2025 before introducing a new system, or perhaps even longer. While some of their reasons differed, many suggested that the Switch’s large install base made it ideal for smaller studios with limited resources for console development, with few hardware-related drawbacks for those making games that aren’t necessarily pushing technological boundaries. One anonymous developer who has recently released a game on the Switch suggested they’d even be content to wait until PlayStation and Microsoft released new consoles to see a new Nintendo console, given that the technological gap “isn’t getting any bigger” until then.
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In fact, there was a noticeable divide in the opinions of the developers I chatted with. Those who felt Nintendo could wait longer were largely working on very small projects, generally in 2D or without especially complex technical needs. Developers of larger, better-established, or more visually and technically complex projects were more eager for a Switch successor in the near future. Jonathan B. Jørgensen of Triple Topping Games praised the Switch’s utility for both players and developers, but admitted it was starting to lag behind, even for indie studios.
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Like the developers I spoke to, analysts similarly had a mix of thoughts about whether or not a Switch successor was a necessity for Nintendo, though they put the question into financial terms rather than technical ones.

Circana executive director and analysts Mat Piscatella pointed to Circana’s forecast, which has a new Nintendo hardware platform releasing in 2024. But will that actuallyhappen? Piscatella isn’t entirely sure, for the sole reason that Nintendo loves to be unpredictable.
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The full article is here and worth reading, even if there is no actual consensus on the topic.

My personal opinion (and one that I know is something a good many people will disagree with) is that we are past the point of absurdity. Put out new Switch hardware by late 2024 at the latest, I am begging you.
 
This year was fully fine with no new Switch with tons of awesome games to play from first and third party. Next year is going to be the year and it’s going to be rad.
 
Japanese publishers are quite content with endless releases of remasters, remakes and compilations. Square is still doing great work using Switch's limitations in their favor, Namco use it as a great opportunity to bring back legacy IP's in best way possible. Sega has no problem with weak hardware for Sonic but its subsidiary Atlus seems to have moved on. Only big publisher Nintendo is missing out on is Capcom, they seem to be more focused on great looking games. I think they have completely moved on leaving Switch the scraps, mostly mobile ports.

Namco and Square can keep Switch alive for one more year but yes, it still will lose publishers one by one. Re-releases are fine but Switch needs its share of new games too.
 
Another great article by Rebekah.

A lot of what is said there isn't any brand new take or viewpoint (hell, they've all been stated on this very forum and will likely result the same in this thread) but I do like Mat's quote:

Ultimately it will come down to their own internal financial goals and, more importantly, where they think development is and how confident they are on the likelihood of success for the new platform. They're not likely to launch a new platform that isn't ready just to get it out there and make their quarter.
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This is what they did with the Wii U to Switch transition, and we see how that worked.

Let em cook. We eating in 2024.
 
The gap isn’t getting any larger? Kind of an odd take when we’re just starting to shift out of cross generation titles on PS5/XSX. Sounds like it’s exactly the right time to keep within arms reach of the rest of the market.
 
With the way 2023 is currently shaping up, I honestly have extremely little desire for a new Switch TBH. Like fantastic games that look great are coming out andI feel like Nintendo is just throwing great shit out now that we're late in life and not relying on the typical big franchises as much. There's a creativity and a sustainability to what Switch does, and while yes, getting to a consistent 30 FPS/720p handheld would be nice, I'm mostly still doing alright without it.

karmitt said:
The gap isn’t getting any larger? Kind of an odd take when we’re just starting to shift out of cross generation titles on PS5/XSX. Sounds like it’s exactly the right time to keep within arms reach of the rest of the market.
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The number of developers who can pull off something on the scale of a true XSX/PS5 exclusive are so incredibly few and far between at this point. We're reaching a point where the technology is "there", but the manpower to achieve results is ever more taxing and every project is do or die for companies. There's fewer releases than ever if you're looking at what constitutes AA/AAA gaming and not relying on indies and re-releases to fill out your catalogue. The gap is there, but for a great many developers, the gap is increasingly either irrelevant because they can't afford to utilize the tech or there's just more sustainability in the cross gen model of "let the old guard have 1080p and let the new have 4K".
 
EricTheGamerman said:
With the way 2023 is currently shaping up, I honestly have extremely little desire for a new Switch TBH. Like fantastic games that look great are coming out andI feel like Nintendo is just throwing great shit out now that we're late in life and not relying on the typical big franchises as much. There's a creativity and a sustainability to what Switch does, and while yes, getting to a consistent 30 FPS/720p handheld would be nice, I'm mostly still doing alright without it.



The number of developers who can pull off something on the scale of a true XSX/PS5 exclusive are so incredibly few and far between at this point. We're reaching a point where the technology is "there", but the manpower to achieve results is ever more taxing and every project is do or die for companies. There's fewer releases than ever if you're looking at what constitutes AA/AAA gaming and not relying on indies and re-releases to fill out your catalogue. The gap is there, but for a great many developers, the gap is increasingly either irrelevant because they can't afford to utilize the tech or there's just more sustainability in the cross gen model of "let the old guard have 1080p and let the new have 4K".
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Whether or not they’re effectively taking advantage of it is really irrelevant. The point is they’re dropping support, which means their efforts are shaped by the newer and more performant specs.

You can argue that FFXVI largely didn’t need to be on PS5 only, but they chose for it to be, and it probably made all their lives easier.
 
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There’s no instance in which I want to spend hundreds of dollars on new video game hardware. If Nintendo releases it though:

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The caveat is I don’t want Nintendo to let the well run dry either. As long as it has a set plan for a successor and doesn’t rush to market resulting in a half-baked console and software droughts, 🤷‍♀️.
 
karmitt said:
The gap isn’t getting any larger? Kind of an odd take when we’re just starting to shift out of cross generation titles on PS5/XSX. Sounds like it’s exactly the right time to keep within arms reach of the rest of the market.
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Maybe my eyes are too used to seeing 12 fps Perfect Dark as a kid, but I don't even see a massive gulf in visual fidelity between Switch games on the OLED display and high end PC's. Diminishing returns are very real to me. Nearly all the games released in this day and age with competent art direction look great to me. This is why I'm not even that excited about the next Switch.

It's deep and polished gameplay systems and good art direction that keeps me coming back for games like TOTK.

The reason I bring this up is because I'm sure it's the same for a lot of consumers. Of course people will upgrade for the newest toy in droves, but I'm not nearly as starved for new tech as I was in generations past. People would still keep buying the current Switch at a brisk pace for the next couple years if the successor is not released as long as Nintendo were to keep pumping out the games.
 
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scrambling for a 2027 console… smh…
 
karmitt said:
Whether or not they’re effectively taking advantage of it is really irrelevant. The point is they’re dropping support, which means their efforts are shaped by the newer and more performance higher specs.

You can argue that FFXVI largely didn’t need to be on PS5 only, but they chose for it to be, and it probably made all their lives easier.
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I don't think Switch is really seeing a huge drop in support. There's still a lot of third parties throwing games on the system and indies are more than happy with the Switch on average. Especially with the massive consolidation happening in the industry and Microsoft/Sony gouging at each other for exclusivity options, it's not like the Switch was ever going to be in that fight super competitively anyways. Most third party support has been older titles since the beginning with a handful of "miracle" ports. Like maybe the biggest thing that hurts is the lack of Diablo 4, but Diablo 3 took a WHILE to come to Switch outright too and I wouldn't be surprised if Diablo 4 is possibly in some sort of longer term plan to come to Switch too if possible.

FFXVI is only on PS5 because Sony barged into the board room with a fat stack of cash. It's not like Switch ever actually had legit 15 or any post original 12 Final Fantasies, but it still got Octopath Traveler 2 this year and Triangle Strategy not long before that along with Live A Live. Switch support has always just been different compared to the HD twins lol.

I think it's VERY relevant if studios can utilize the hardware or not. If they're not using it, then the "power gap" isn't actually as huge of an issue for releases on Switch down the road and also there is less pressure from the public at large in regards to visualizing that gap or treating it as more necessary to be bridged.
 
I think waiting longer than holiday 2024 will make for a very non-smooth transition (I mean something like Wii U/3DS 2016-> Switch), while having it out in 2024 will make for a soft and heavy at the same time transition.

2023 is an stellar year for Switch software. Metroid Prime returning in glorious modern graphics, Fire Emblem getting a new and ambitious title, Tears of the Kingdom being even more than everyone dreamed of, Pikmin 4 being a masterpiece, with a brand new take in 2D Super Mario and a remake of RPG coming, alongside other cherries on top like Kirby, Advance Wars, Wario and Detective Pikachu.

2024 can be an stellar year for Switch, a stellar year for cross gen Switch 2 and have a stellar killer app as exclusive for Switch 2. Coming that year may also make for a 2025 with blockbuster exclusive games while also maintaining a steady flow of cross gen games.

I think it's best if they release it next year and keep supporting Switch after, then wait longer and go through droughts or the Switch sales falling off a cliff before the next hardware comes.

I really liked the takes from the developers and the writer tho!!

What I say is: Switch can't die in 2024 and it surely can keep going and selling after the successor comes, keep getting games from indie developers and being the biggest AA powerhouse, while Switch 2 climbs its hill to replace it slowly, benefiting from both its incredible library and games coming after it releases that will all be playable on it.
 
I happen to have 1 grand burning in my pocket Nintendo.
So better serve new console in early 2024
 
The Switch has given me two of my favorite games of all times just this summer. Nintendo can take their time.
 
The thought that the successor will arrive only when it's needed is a faulty premise to begin with.

Nintendo has a very strong history of its consoles losing their steam (if they even had any to begin with) before being replaced with the newer console, so it was seen as needed to get the new one in there.

Especially because in the days before their consolidated dev teams and hardware, in theory you had Nintendo developing games for four systems simultaneously, which would stretch the output for the deprioritized ones pretty thin, and facilitate a need for the successor even more urgently. Now they don't have to do that either; it will be much easier to continue to provide a steady output for the Switch until after the launch of the next system. A lot of the opinions quoted seem contingent on not foregoing the Switch's install base - but given the Switch has actually remained a success to this point, Nintendo probably won't forego its install base as readily as they did with past systems that had already faded prior to be replaced. Switch support will likely continue for a while.

So obviously no, Nintendo doesn't need the successor next year, they'll be fine if it doesn't show up. The bigger profile third-party stuff has petered out a bit the further we get from where the bar set by the other two is, and the more existing ports have come to the system, but that's not an essential aspect to the Switch's viability at this point.

But it probably will arrive all the same next year just because it's time to start the transition. They may not need to, but the real question is, will people buy a new system if one comes out? After seven years, I think many are ready for a new system, and if they don't botch the rollout (or the system itself), the success will endure.

A system doesn't need to be flagging hard to justify the successor. If you look at the Playstation, usually the current one is still doing pretty well when the next one shows up. Sometimes it's just a question of whether sufficient time has lapsed that people are game to grab the new thing. The fact that the expectation for Nintendo systems is to start faltering to herald a new system is an indictment of the legs/success of past ones, not necessarily the way it has to work.
 
persoanlly i hpe that we dont gt a successor in 2024, the software thats coming out is still finevned they can cruise off the last couple big hits they have in thier pocket for another year or so.
 
Spyder said:
Console begging is cringe
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??? Stating that we want the next console to be out ASAP is cringe? I'm happy with where Switch is at this year, but if we go all of next year without a release that's going to be really disappointing. I don't think simply stating that opinion is 'cringe'
 
At the moment I've been mesmerised by TOTK for over a hundred hours on my beautiful new Switch OLED, I'm playing SIFU and Dusk on the side, and waiting for the Batman Arkham trilogy this September, (possibly Red Dead) Pikmin 4, Mario RPG and Mario Wonder this holiday.

At no time have I thought, "I need new hardware".
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
They ended up releasing early '17 rather than late '16, but Switch was definitely a cook this shit fast, Wii U is rotting situation.
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Yeah switch launched without and is still missing core features, particularly when it comes with its UI. Online infrastructure was also cobbled together.

Spyder said:
Console begging is cringe
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You know what's cringe? Defending sub 720p/30fps with drops in 2023
 
Please avoid making platform wars posts on Famiboards.-PixelKnight, Xghost777, Josh5890
Nintendo fans would probably be fine until 2026 tbh. They’ve been conditioned by Nintendo for years with weak hardware and low performance games.
 
TheGreatMightyPoo said:
I think it “needs” to happen for momentum…

and third partys.
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honestly we could go to 2024 and momentum would be good, 2023 was a giant reinvigoration for the brand and Nintendo is basically a its peak recognition wise.
wonder alone along wiht some more lower sales bracket games can easily do the first half of the year.

peach game will be big too
 
Djehuty said:
persoanlly i hpe that we dont gt a successor in 2024, the software thats coming out is still finevned they can cruise off the last couple big hits they have in thier pocket for another year or so.
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Nah. While doing great in Japan I think Playstation is doing significantly better in the west in the last 12 months. Nintendo shareholders wont like that
 
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I'd say it needs to happen simply because the console is passed its peak and it makes sense to keep the momentum going by releasing the Switch 2 instead of letting it dry up. Games-wise, at least for this year, I'm more than fine but I do wanna see their games actually look nice on my 4K TV, which DLSS would allow for
 
It really depends on what is in the pipeline software wise. If 2024 is anything like 2023, they don't need a new hardware. The driving force is first party software and 2023 is incredible. I don't think third party matters much to Nintendo, it is not like they are their bread and butter.
The thing is, given Nintendo policy of "1 per generation" policy for some of their big IP, we will soon run short of heavy hitters to release on the system.
Personally I am really happy about a system lasting as long as possible if the software support is there.
 
I think it'll be out in 2024, but exactly when is harder to gauge. I don't think Nintendo need to stick to a holiday season launch - especially not if a steady software slate is ready and sufficient stock will be reaching market.

(Though 'sufficient stock' probably still means 'sold out everywhere')
 
Don't really care whether it comes next year or the following year. Main thing for me is that when it does come, the supply better be there. I don't want to go through a huge hassle of trying to get one like I did with PS5.
 
I want the next switch because until that console releases we're not getting the next 3d Mario game, that's the biggest tragedy.
 
The Switch is always giving me interesting new games to play.

If in 2024 it's strong just like this year, I wouldn't complain about a lack of hardware.

Though I'm very interested in the Drake and hope it releases asap.
 
Kreese said:
Switch just had its best Q2 since 2020 and the second best in Switches entire life cycle.
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Those numbers haven't been announced yet? What we do have from the most recent official numbers is that April '22 - March '23 is the lowest a full year of hardware has been since July '18 - June '19.
MSnap said:
my backlog says we’re not exactly hurting for new hardware, but I’ll take it as soon as I can get it
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If we were going on backlogs, though, I'd be keeping you all stuck on the Wii/DS era.
TheSpaceBetween said:
Don't really care whether it comes next year or the following year. Main thing for me is that when it does come, the supply better be there. I don't want to go through a huge hassle of trying to get one like I did with PS5.
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I mean... if you want to get one in 2026, supply will be much much better if it launched in 2024 than if it launched in 2026.
 
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Next year feels about right, but then I said that last year as well. I’m stuck in a groundhog-day opinion of ‘next year would surely be the right time!’ :)

I can’t imagine Nintendo has that many major games left in the tank for Switch at this point. Surely most of the teams working on titles 1+ years out will have moved onto the next platform by now.

Third party is a different story though. It’s usually about now that Atlus starts spamming games…
 
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Nintendo having short console life cycles: fans complain
Nintendo having long, successful console life cycles: fans complain

Slightly joking. but there is some truth to that.

Now personally I would absolutely buy a new, more powerful Switch next year. But I would rather wait another year if it meant
1. a more significant hardware upgrade / a more affordable price point
2. a solid launch lineup out of the gate
 
TanookiTom said:
Nintendo having short console life cycles: fans complain
Nintendo having long, successful console life cycles: fans complain

Slightly joking. but there is some truth to that.
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Different people complain about different things. Shocking.

Bring on the new hardware as fast as possible. I have enough of inferior versions of even simplistic games like octopath traveler 2.
 
FeiFongWong said:
Bring on the new hardware as fast as possible. I have enough of inferior versions of even simplistic games like octopath traveler 2.
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This.

Sick of jaggies, low-res textures, no AA, shimmering etc.
I can only imagine that most of the people here who continue to be delighted with Switch tech, do not own other consoles or PC.
 
Also, people talk as if the only benefit of modern hardware would be for AAAAAA+++++ 100 gazillion budget efforts, that's not the case at all.
MostSwitch games coning out would hugely benefit from better image quality, framerate etc.
 
Nintendo is going to launch the successor when they're ready in terms of the hardware and a strong slate of software. I do think going past 2024 is gonna start hurting them in the market but Nintendo has such huge cash reserves that they can weather it if they really believe they need more time.
 
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