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Discussion Betting time (post Direct): Will Switch meet, surpass or fall short of its projected 15 million FY 2024 guidance

FY 2024

  • It will surpass 15 million

    Votes: 15 23.1%

  • It will meet 15 million or come very close

    Votes: 39 60.0%

  • It will fall short of 15 million

    Votes: 11 16.9%
  • Total voters
    65
Meet for sure. 2D Mario brings the sales. And you've got TotK as well in the mix.

Unsure about surpassing.
 
Yeah I think it's got a good chance to meet the forecast, probably not do much more. Sales have picked up thanks to TotK and Mario Wonder will probably make a pretty big splash too.
 
Before this Direct, I felt that reaching 15 million was a really tall order. Now, having a brand new 2D Mario game on the horizon gives them one hell of a fighting chance of reaching it.
 
I feel optimistic with the Zelda bump, and Mario for the holidays. It will meet or come close to it. 14-15m
 
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I'll likely contribute to the number by buying my niece a Switch with Mario Wonder for X-Mas. She caught the Mario Bug because of "Peaches" (and Peach in general). She'll love the game, I'm sure.

Yeah, these kids are gonna go nuts for Mario Wonder. 15M will be met.
 
0
They’ll reach 15 million. Maybe even reach 16 to 16.5 million. I’m confident. Nintendo usually underestimates a bit their estimates.
 
0
It will surpass the projections.
The movie will bring in new players and Nintendo is waiting for them with tons of Mario content!
 
0
TotK and Super Mario Bros. Wonder are two games big enough to make sure forecast is hit, we've already seen the OLED push over Zelda and Mario is a strong holiday card especially with the movie just released. I feel they will slightly surpass it. 15.5-16M

With support cast of
Pikmin 4
Super Mario RPG
Detective Pikachu Returns
Warioware
+ DLC in Area Zero, Splatoon 3 and MK

For the rest of the year I think they're in pretty good shape. Going to be interesting how the end the FY from Jan-Mar if it's something of what they revealed today or something else.
 
Yes. Super Mario Bros Wonder is the first brand new 2D Mario game in 10 years. And it looks unique, fresh and crazy.
If this doesn't, then nothing would have.

I'm thinking 16M.
 
0
Announce a Wonder OLED that’s the colour of the Wonder logo and it will get extremely close at the very least. After the Mario movie there’ll be so many Switch’s getting sold for Christmas.
 
TotK and 2D Mario already give it a decent shot at 15M, and there’s still a September Direct, too.
 
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Skittzo said:
Haven't they been putting out their "holiday" titles in October more recently?
Click to expand...
I don't know, but that's irrelevant to my point. Either way, we still don't know it. It could be the clincher for a 15 million figure.
 
HockeyBird said:
Mario Wonder comes out in October and Mario RPG comes out 11/17. Those are your holiday games.
Click to expand...
That'd make sense, I figured there'd be a December game but personally I'm happy with what we've got.....
a faithful Super Mario RPG remake, AND a brand new 2D Mario..... stuff of dreams tbh
 
bellydrum said:
That'd make sense, I figured there'd be a December game but personally I'm happy with what we've got.....
a faithful Super Mario RPG remake, AND a brand new 2D Mario..... stuff of dreams tbh
Click to expand...

December games usually aren't considered "holiday" games because they come out after Black Friday. Most publishers try to get their games out right before Thanksgiving in time for the big holiday shopping week. December is usually reserved for titles with smaller audiences. Some big games have released in December but that's almost certainly because they needed a little more time in the oven and couldn't make the November release. Smash Ultimately was almost assuredly originally scheduled for November 2018.
 
HockeyBird said:
December games usually aren't considered "holiday" games because they come out after Black Friday. Most publishers try to get their games out right before Thanksgiving in time for the big holiday shopping week. December is usually reserved for titles with smaller audiences. Some big games have released in December but that's almost certainly because they needed a little more time in the oven and couldn't make the November release. Smash Ultimately was almost assuredly originally scheduled for November 2018.
Click to expand...
Nice, good to know. I'll stop calling December games "holiday games" then. Not expecting much this December now!
 
I feel between Zelda still doing work and the new 2D Mario, there's a very good chance they'll at least hit the 15M. There's also a lot of smaller titles announced that might move some consoles.
 
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Maybe if there is another big title.

There is a chance for them to hit it, but i still fell like it will slightly underperform. New Mario will sell huge numbers, but thats not the question.
the question is, does it reach new audiences, that still havent bought a switch? New Super Mario Bros Wii U was there as a "new" mario for those that are not the core audience, and those that wanted to play mario games because of the movie. Now they bought a switch during the high of the movies release, with the bundle and eshop sales.
Will there be people, that played New Super Mario Bros Wii U, but never bought a switch, but now want one because of a new mario? Eh...

And for sure, if there is a special release (like with zelda), you will have people that double and tripple dip, but even those are getting to a point where they don't need ANOTHER special edition switch.

I just could see a saturation point that even a new mario game cant past that easily.
 
bellydrum said:
Nice, good to know. I'll stop calling December games "holiday games" then. Not expecting much this December now!
Click to expand...
And the 12.2017 game was Xenoblade Cronicles 2, after we had Mario Odyssey in October. Late November/Early December is usually the more Core focused release, while the big mass market release (Pokemon, Mario) is before.

And i get the feeling Mario RPG kinda fits the mold... a square Remake, for a specific core audience, that will be a success with 2-4 million sold.
 
It'll be relatively close either way, but I would say no. TotK has been gaining ground by moving lots of OLED upgrades, but they were down pretty substantially YoY before that. One would assume the boost will stop at some point in the near future, and I don't see any other game this year moving OLED hardware in the way that TotK is. TotK is basically a once in a generation super event where people would want to own the unique and special edition software/hardware that goes with it.

I don't believe 2D Mario will have that kind of significant hardware impact, simply because Mario has been featured in countless ways on the Switch already, and we are already late in the life of the Switch where new software shouldn't generally have a big impact on hardware sales. OLED sales/upgrades will determine everything really. How many people are willing to make that jump, potentially knowing that new hardware may be around the corner?

If I was to guess, I think they'll miss by like a million or something.
 
As of now with the announced lineup I believe it will be very close to 15 million. If they couple this with a price drop than it will easily sell the 15 million.
 
0
The bump Switch is seeing in Japan is insanity, just presumably from ToTK and post Mario Movie hype.

It is hard to say this is for sure also happening across the world (lack of numbers), but that taste of Switches current momentum plus a hype new 2D Mario in October is enough for me to say it's going to push them past 15M.
 
Olinad said:
Peach is 2024.
But yeah I think they can get there, especially with a good Black Friday bundle.
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The FY doesn't end until March so there's a good chance Peach can make it if this is an early 2024 game which it very well could be.

Aether said:
Maybe if there is another big title.

There is a chance for them to hit it, but i still fell like it will slightly underperform. New Mario will sell huge numbers, but thats not the question.
the question is, does it reach new audiences, that still havent bought a switch? New Super Mario Bros Wii U was there as a "new" mario for those that are not the core audience, and those that wanted to play mario games because of the movie. Now they bought a switch during the high of the movies release, with the bundle and eshop sales.
Will there be people, that played New Super Mario Bros Wii U, but never bought a switch, but now want one because of a new mario? Eh...

And for sure, if there is a special release (like with zelda), you will have people that double and tripple dip, but even those are getting to a point where they don't need ANOTHER special edition switch.

I just could see a saturation point that even a new mario game cant past that easily.
Click to expand...
I think Nintendo's banking on Mario so heavily this year because there's probably a ton of new potential consumers that they feel they could bring in because of the enormous success of the movie. I've definitely noticed plenty of familiarity between the games and the movie to reinforce this as well.

Skies said:
The bump Switch is seeing in Japan is insanity, just presumably from ToTK and post Mario Movie hype.

It is hard to say this is for sure also happening across the world (lack of numbers), but that taste of Switches current momentum plus a hype new 2D Mario in October is enough for me to say it's going to push them past 15M.
Click to expand...

TOTK's bump also saw Switch leading in other markets like Europe in May and even as early as April NPD in NA.
 
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