Sales Data Ampere Analysis forecasts the next Switch for late 2024 ; return on predictions made last year

[Kano]

The real thing to look out for at the next couple meetings is either "we have no plans to announce about new hardware" or "we will not be releasing new hardware in 2022". That's a lot more definitive.

I completely disagree. 20M is exactly where I'd expect a year with a new launch to be. Q1 should be somewhere around 2-3m coming off of a big Q4 shipment with Pokemon. Q2 is when the new model would have to be announced so it'll probably do about 2-3m if not less. Q3 the new model will sell out but that'll only be about ~5-8m in all likelihood, then the base Switch will probably pick up the other ~3-5m for no more than 11m total. Then another 3-5m combined in Q4 depending on supply and software to get them to a total of 18m-22m.

I don't see any reason to think a new Switch would guarantee them significantly more or fewer hardware sales in an FY.


That's three games, one of which is GaaS, so it doesn't exactly have to launch with a new model. Zelda and Bayonetta are more geared towards the enthusiast early adopters anyway.

Add that doesn't include games which are heavily rumored but not yet announced like Xenoblade Chronicles 3 or Metroid Prime remake/remaster, both of which could launch near or with a new model.

I'm also expecting Arceus DLC in November but that's just my own theory.

I think you're wrong on everything but we've had this debate enough times lol.

 

[Skittzo]

I think you're wrong on everything but we've had this debate enough times lol.

For the record I'm not married to the idea of a 2022 launch, I just think that's where all the evidence is currently pointing.

I'm very open to being wrong, I've been wrong plenty of times in the past and I'll be wrong plenty more times in the future.

 

[chocolate_supra]

As far as evidence goes, one thing I kept seeing referenced in the hardware thread a lot last year was the tape out of the Dane chip being a pretty good indicator that the product will be manufactured and shipped soon (several months I think, at least within the year). Do we know if there'll be leaks of the tape out? I seem to remember someone on ERA having close enough info that they'd probably know about Dane being taped out once it happened. Did they migrate here (or was it the person who said they had to sign an NDA and then peaced out of the conversation )?

 

[daase ko]

As far as evidence goes, one thing I kept seeing referenced in the hardware thread a lot last year was the tape out of the Dane chip being a pretty good indicator that the product will be manufactured and shipped soon (several months I think, at least within the year). Do we know if there'll be leaks of the tape out? I seem to remember someone on ERA having close enough info that they'd probably know about Dane being taped out once it happened. Did they migrate here (or was it the person who said they had to sign an NDA and then peaced out of the conversation )?

They won't tell anything anymore.

 

[Skittzo]

As far as evidence goes, one thing I kept seeing referenced in the hardware thread a lot last year was the tape out of the Dane chip being a pretty good indicator that the product will be manufactured and shipped soon (several months I think, at least within the year). Do we know if there'll be leaks of the tape out? I seem to remember someone on ERA having close enough info that they'd probably know about Dane being taped out once it happened. Did they migrate here (or was it the person who said they had to sign an NDA and then peaced out of the conversation )?

Yeah that person definitely won't be sharing it now, even if they made the migration. But Kopite probably will share it, probably not too long after it happens.

 

[chocolate_supra]

They won't tell anything anymore.

Yeah that person definitely won't be sharing it now, even if they made the migration. But Kopite probably will share it, probably not too long after it happens.

Yeah I understand the person with the NDA won't share anymore, I just couldn't remember if they were the same person who would have knowledge of the tape out. Sounds like they are. Ah, well. Fingers crossed for Kopite.