Sales Data Ampere Analysis forecasts the next Switch for late 2024 ; return on predictions made last year

[Kano]

GI.Biz made their annual new year round of predictions, inviting analysts to make a bunch of general predictions on the gaming landscape for 2022 as well as go back on their predictions from last year to see what ended up right or wrong. A thread was already made on Serkan Toto's claims that come from this article but I wanted to put some spotlight on another analyst quoted here.

None of this is based on insider informations. It's purely informed guesses, but I thought some of them were particularly interesting and comes from fairly knowledgeable people so I thought about sharing them with you. Pls don't kill each other arguing about who is right or who is wrong.

What happens to gaming in 2022? Analysts offer their predictions

Every year, we turn to a panel of trusted analysts to ask them what they see coming down the road, and ask them to asse…

www.gamesindustry.biz

Piers Harding-Rolls from Ampere Analysis is usually pretty on spot when it comes to Nintendo predictions. He correctly called that no consoles would release in 2020 but a new model would come in 2021 at a more premium price. He correctly forecasted Switch as the best selling console in 2021 with around 24 millions units sales (even though his current forecast is that it'll end up a bit above that mark). His predictions on the combined amount of PS5/Xbox Series sales, as well as the state of Cloud Gaming's growth were generally right as well, so I think his opinion is worth reading.

Here is what he expects for Nintendo in 2022:

2022 Predictions

● Consoles flat, no Switch Pro

I'm currently expecting the console market year-on-year performance to be quite flat in 2022 as Switch sales decline and we come off what has been an amazing couple of years for console gaming. Even so, Nintendo Switch family of devices will once again be the best-selling consoles in 2022 at around 21 million sold to consumers, aided by the release of Switch OLED. I'm not expecting a Switch Pro in 2022. We have a next-gen Nintendo console in our forecasts for late 2024, so I'm not convinced a 'Pro' model is going to appear at all.

PS5 will outsell Xbox Series X|S on a global basis. The predicted combined sales to gamers are around 28 million. PS5 and Xbox Series X will remain supply constrained, but I expect availability to improve slowly over the year and to be in a better place as we arrive at the holiday season.

What do you think of his opinion? I personally agree with the sales forecast, we're clearly past the peak of the Switch but the very strong software slate for this year means it will only marginally decline, still keeping above 20 millions consoles sold in a year (which is still enormous btw). Late 2024 would track if Nintendo wants to have a solid software slate for the launch of its new console, and milk the sales potential of the Switch until it's dry and the market is ready for the mass launch of a new popular device.

 

[Kingpin Rogers]

I'm very confident we don't see a new Switch model this year. And my belief in a Switch Pro at all is at an all time low so I could see it just being a Switch 2 in 2024 yeah.

 

[Raccoon]

This all makes sense. They found a cadence that works for them: if they can get a new Switch out that's close enough to the XBOX SERIES S to get a bunch of late ports like the first Switch did, that may afford them a healthy start.

I'm not sure about how the first party software would look at that point. Zelda will have shipped in 2022, as well as Splatoon and potentially some Mario games. Getting a strong launch together two years after might be tough.

Sakurai is ostensibly finally out of Smash, but if they have a new system out in 2024 I have no doubt that Nintendo is already coordinating the next one without him. We could actually see that along with Next Level Games, who are (IMO unfortunately) likely making Luigi's Mansion 4. By that token we could see a GameCube first party launch in 2024, which would be novel.

 

[Josh5890]

2024 for Switch 2 would be fine by me. I wouldn't be surprised if we got an upgraded Lite model or something else in between.

 

[Skittzo]

You know my stance on this so I'll just say if they wait until 2024 I think their revenue in 2023 will dip quite heavily and investors will be pissed.

But it won't be a long term issue.

 

[Lant_War]

2024 for Switch 2 would be fine by me. I wouldn't be surprised if we got an upgraded Lite model or something else in between.

A Lite OLED with a couple more premium features like HD Rumble and a bigger screen would be awesome. I'd definitely try to upgrade.

 

[Raccoon]

Assorted Nintendo Devs and When They Have Last Shipped, by Raccoon

EPD 3 (Zelda): Zelda 2 confirmed for 2022
EPD 5 (Animal Crossing): 2020
EPD 5 (Splatoon): confirmed 2022
EPD 8 (3D Mario): seemingly 2021 with BF
EPD 4 (wacky fun times): 2021 Game Builder Garage
EPD 9 (Mario Kart): ARMS in 2017, Mario Kart Tour ongoing oh dear lord
EPD 10: Mario Maker in 2019 w/ support through 2020 (iirc). Original 2D Mario might be soon

NLG: 2019 Luigi's Mansion 3. Might be seen before 2024, might not
Retro: Metroid Prime? Prime 4?

NDCUBE: 2021 Mario Party. Support in 2022? (please god) Notably Superstars did not seem to have full staff; we could see something else soon

---

So yeah, it's a weird time. Prime 4 actually seems like the perfect hypothetical launch title for a 2024 succ. Who knows when we'll see 3D Mario and Mario Kart, though

 

[Pandora]

Personally expecting switch to be at 18-19m this year so that's the part I'm more skeptical of, my stance on anything else is still purely I will care when there is official news at this point.

 

[Raccoon]

You know my stance on this so I'll just say if they wait until 2024 I think their revenue in 2023 will dip quite heavily and investors will be pissed.

But it won't be a long term issue.

their revenue in 2023 would be great. with zelda out and no pro in sight anyone who's been holding out to buy in or get an oled would finally bite the bullet after the software juggernaut of 2022

it'd be the tepid 2024 launch that would do them in

 

[Skittzo]

Assorted Nintendo Devs and When They Have Last Shipped, by Raccoon

EPD 3 (Zelda): Zelda 2 confirmed for 2022
EPD 5 (Animal Crossing): 2020
EPD 5 (Splatoon): confirmed 2022
EPD 8 (3D Mario): seemingly 2021 with BF
EPD 4 (wacky fun times): 2021 Game Builder Garage
EPD 9 (Mario Kart): ARMS in 2017, Mario Kart Tour ongoing oh dear lord
EPD 10: Mario Maker in 2019 w/ support through 2020 (iirc). Original 2D Mario might be soon

NLG: 2019 Luigi's Mansion 3. Might be seen before 2024, might not
Retro: Metroid Prime? Prime 4?

NDCUBE: 2021 Mario Party. Support in 2022? (please god) Notably Superstars did not seem to have full staff; we could see something else soon

---

So yeah, it's a weird time. Prime 4 actually seems like the perfect hypothetical launch title for a 2024 succ. Who knows when we'll see 3D Mario and Mario Kart, though

Yeah the timelines don't really work well for a 2024 launch with the typical games we'd expect but who the hell knows. I think whenever they launch a new model it'll be a soft-ish launch anyway, 2024 will still have tons of component and supply chain issues.

Part of me feels like Mario Kart and 3D Mario are both pretty much done and ready to go whenever they think it'll work best. Zelda is the real wild card, you'd think based on past performances they'd want to launch with a new Zelda rather than shortly after a new Zelda (meaning a long wait before the next one). That's the main reason I do still buy the rumors suggesting 2022 for a new model (specifically NOT a Switch 2) but I'm obviously open to being quite wrong.

their revenue in 2023 would be great. with zelda out and no pro in sight anyone who's been holding out to buy in or get an oled would finally bite the bullet after the software juggernaut of 2022

it'd be the tepid 2024 launch that would do them in

Eh that's not how console lifecycles work though. People don't just buy it en masse a year after a bunch of new games come.

And nobody in the mass market is expecting a Switch Pro, they don't pay attention to rumors like that so it's very much a non-factor.

2023 will likely see sales somewhere in the 16m range, give or take a couple. Less if the new Switch is announced within that FY. They don't often like selling less than 20m pieces of hardware overall in a year so it'll be a pretty big hit to their revenue.

 

[Skittzo]

Whoops DP, sorry.

 

[Josh5890]

What if they are saving a new 2D Zelda for the next system? With BOTW 2 coming out this year, another 3D Zelda is probably a minimum 4 years out..

 

[Skipper93653]

EPD 8 (3D Mario): seemingly 2021 with BF

Bowser's Fury was an effort mainly done by NST, not EPD8.

 

[Raccoon]

What if they are saving a new 2D Zelda for the next system? With BOTW 2 coming out this year, another 3D Zelda is probably a minimum 4 years out..

oh boy, a 2D zelda. time to spend 400 dollars on this
- no one outside of this website

 

[Chijin_08]

The very earliest I’m expecting another switch model is summer 2023 but 2024 doesn’t seem impossible.

I’m expecting nothing this year unless they come out with a switch lite oled.

 

[Raccoon]

Bowser's Fury was an effort mainly done by NST, not EPD8.

huh, that's cool

maybe 8 will ship this year too, then nintendo will really be fucked

 

[Josh5890]

oh boy, a 2D zelda. time to spend 400 dollars on this
- no one outside of this website

Obviously it won't be the only launch window game, but a new 2D Zelda in HD would get a lot buzz.

 

[mazi]

switch 2 in late 2023 or early 2024, no switch pro
it's pretty obvious

 

[phyl0x]

yeah i dont think we're getting a switch pro/2 this year; but id be surprised if it wasnt by Holiday 2023 vs the 2024 they're saying. Glad i picked up the OLED, need the best experience possible for BoTW2 later this year.

 

[Kano]

I do think late 2024 works well for launch games.

- It'll be prime time for a brand new Mario Kart to launch. It would be pointless to launch a new one this year, MK8D just had its best year ever (or close to it, we don't have the final 2021 sales yet) and will still be a major hardware driver in 2022. Having a MK at launch has worked tremendously well for the Switch and it would be very smart to do it again for the next console.

- Games that released in 2019 will be able to release sequels or new iterations in 2024. Luigi's Mansion 4 (or the next big project from NLG at least) could be a big release for Nintendo around that time. Same goes for a follow up to Mario Maker 2 (be it a third game or a new kind of 2D Mario).

- Zelda Breath of the Wild 2 is planned to release in 2022, with most likely DLCs to follow over the next year. Nintendo could position an enhanced or complete edition of the game as a landmark title of its launch. A new Zelda remake could work as well, Link's Awakening having been released in 2019 (4 years after Majora, which was 4 years after OOT).

- Gen 9 of Pokémon would almost assuredly release in late 2023 but you could have an enhanced version on Switch 2 for the launch of the new machine.

Nintendo can still ride on 2023 with big titles like a new 3D Mario and the gen 9 Pokémon games.

 

[Tangerine_Cookie]

Holiday 2023 - March 2024 would make sense if they intend to sell it as a full on successor, really.

 

[Mekanos]

Late 2024 has been my prediction for a while. HD systems outside of flops like Wii U have had life cycles of 7-8 years, and COVID likely pushed it out even further. I have a hard time believing they'd be launching games like Splatoon 2 if the next Switch was right around the corner, and the system is still selling like hotcakes. It could have come out as early as late 2023 but I really think COVID put a monkey wrench in that.

 

[Raccoon]

I do think late 2024 works well for launch games.

- It'll be prime time for a brand new Mario Kart to launch. It would be pointless to launch a new one this year, MK8D just had its best year ever (or close to it, we don't have the final 2021 sales yet) and will still be a major hardware driver in 2022. Having a MK at launch has worked tremendously well for the Switch and it would be very smart to do it again for the next console.

- Games that released in 2019 will be able to release sequels or new iterations in 2024. Luigi's Mansion 4 (or the next big project from NLG at least) could be a big release for Nintendo around that time. Same goes for a follow up to Mario Maker 2 (be it a third game or a new kind of 2D Mario).

- Zelda Breath of the Wild 2 is planned to release in 2022, with most likely DLCs to follow over the next year. Nintendo could position an enhanced or complete edition of the game as a landmark title of its launch. A new Zelda remake could work as well, Link's Awakening having been released in 2019 (4 years after Majora, which was 4 years after OOT).

- Gen 9 of Pokémon would almost assuredly release in late 2023 but you could have an enhanced version on Switch 2 for the launch of the new machine.

Nintendo can still ride on 2023 with big titles like a new 3D Mario and the gen 9 Pokémon games.

a lot of recycled content, and perhaps worse a lot of sitting on software

it's not impossible or even unreasonable, though. It'd be incredible if they finished the next 3D Mario this year and immediately started working on its sequel

 

[Kano]

a lot of recycled content, and perhaps worse a lot of sitting on software

it's not impossible or even unreasonable, though. It'd be incredible if they finished the next 3D Mario this year and immediately started working on its sequel

Is it recycled content? If year 1 of the next console (so, from late 2024 to late 2025) has a new Mario Kart, a new AAA title from NLG, an enhanced edition or remake of Pokémon, a Zelda remake or spin-off, a new 2D Mario, alongside titles that could be anything (Donkey Kong? Ring Fit follow up? New ips of any sort?), it could be a very good year.

 

[Raccoon]

Is it recycled content? If year 1 of the next console (so, from late 2024 to late 2025) has a new Mario Kart, a new AAA title from NLG, an enhanced edition or remake of Pokémon, a Zelda remake or spin-off, a new 2D Mario, alongside titles that could be anything (Donkey Kong? Ring Fit follow up? New ips of any sort?), it could be a very good year.

the more they "sit on," whether that's actually holding finished projects or extending their development time, the better the launch would be

2023 and pre-launch 2024 will be rough, though. if we saw pokemon the fall of 2023 and then the third version at launch I guess that would make sense

what a weird time we're entering

 

[Kano]

the more they "sit on," whether that's actually holding finished projects or extending their development time, the better the launch would be

2023 and pre-launch 2024 will be rough, though. if we saw pokemon the fall of 2023 and then the third version at launch I guess that would make sense

what a weird time we're entering

I don't think Nintendo has an interest in sitting on projects if they have the time to launch them, except for some titles like Mario Kart (when it makes no sense to launch it now, even if it's ready).
I think pre-launch 2024 will possibly be dry but 2023 should have enough juice to keep the sales going, with stuff like 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, Pokémon Gen 9, something Zelda-related and the likes.

 

[Raccoon]

I don't think Nintendo has an interest in sitting on projects if they have the time to launch them, except for some titles like Mario Kart (when it makes no sense to launch it now, even if it's ready).
I think pre-launch 2024 will possibly be dry but 2023 should have enough juice to keep the sales going, with stuff like 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, Pokémon Gen 9, something Zelda-related and the likes.

you think Prime 4 would end up at the end of the Switch's life? I guess that would make sense

how long do you think NLG will take? Luigi's Mansion 3 famously took like 6 or 7 years, but how well do you think they can bring that period down?

 

[Spyder]

2027 baby!

 

[Josh5890]

If holiday 2024 is the planned launch like they are suggesting, then there will probably be a lul in first party releases in early 2024. Nintendo is going to want to have a good start with their next system.

2023 should be ok for the system.

-Metroid Prime 4
-Pokemon something
-3D Mario/DK (if it doesn't hit this year)
-Fire Emblem (if it doesn't hit this year)
-Pikmin something
-Zelda TP/WW

Obviously there will be more but that feels like a good start.

 

[Shinespark]

Y'all pulled me out of the lurking darkness with this one. Nintendo home consoles have come out every 5-6 years: 1985 (NES) > 1991 (SNES) > 1996 (N64) > 2001 (GCN) > 2006 (Wii) > 2012 (Wii U) > 2017 (Switch). There seems to be a pattern where a really successful console leads to 6 year release cycle, which makes sense bc they're trying to milk it for longer.

Based on the success of the Switch, I think 2023 is the most likely release date. The important mitigating factor here are global supply chain challenges, which could push back the launch into 2024. This is probably factored into Ampere's prediction. Otherwise, we're looking at 35+ years of precedent that suggest the successor is coming out some time next year.

 

[Mekanos]

I'm still not sure we'll get another 3D Mario on Switch between Odyssey, 3D All-Stars, and 3D World + Bowser's Fury, but if we do get one I could see it being holiday 2023. I certainly wouldn't complain if we did.

Y'all pulled me out of the lurking darkness with this one. Nintendo home consoles have come out every 5-6 years: 1985 (NES) > 1991 (SNES) > 1996 (N64) > 2001 (GCN) > 2006 (Wii) > 2012 (Wii U) > 2017 (Switch). There seems to be a pattern where a really successful console leads to 6 year release cycle, which makes sense bc they're trying to milk it for longer.

Based on the success of the Switch, I think 2023 is the most likely release date. The important mitigating factor here are global supply chain challenges, which could push back the launch into 2024. This is probably factored into Ampere's prediction. Otherwise, we're looking at 35+ years of precedent that suggest the successor is coming out some time next year.

This is the first HD Nintendo console that isn't a flop, which impacts its life cycle.

 

[Kano]

you think Prime 4 would end up at the end of the Switch's life? I guess that would make sense

how long do you think NLG will take? Luigi's Mansion 3 famously took like 6 or 7 years, but how well do you think they can bring that period down?

I think Prime 4 is not releasing before 2023 and is definitely a Switch 1 game. It has been developed as such for the entirety of the platform's life, so it's definitely releasing on that. We've seen big games releasing at the end of a console life still perform extremely well (see TLOU2 on PS4 for example). I think the goal is to get it out in 2023. It could get an enhanced edition on Switch, or bundled with DLCs and the likes. Regardless I think it'll be a Switch 1 project, a bit of a swan song for the system.

If you take a look at NLG's calendar of releases, they have a game out about every 3 years. Now, they make very big titles so LM3 took a long time, but that was while changing consoles mid-development and assumedly develop a new engine etc. I think the next game they make won't take as long. If you look at LM3 credits it looks like everyone at NLG worked on it though, so I don't think they are working on several titles at once (or no more than one major project at least). So I think their next big game (which could be LM4 to play it safe, or yet another IP revival). The Game Director of LM3 for example also worked on the design of Metroid Prime Federation Force, and LM3 definitely started development before MPFF released. The Game Director of MPFF worked on LM2 and 3 as designer as well. So it's possible they have another smaller project out for Switch 1 before the next LM-like game, which would be a 2024-25 game.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

I was thinking 2024 myself, but a graph I saw either here or on installbase earlier today swayed my mind a little. It showed the relative performance of the DS each year since launch, Vs the Switch, and I now reckon late 2023 or early 2024 at the latest will be what's planned, just based in how much similarity the two had in their sales patterns, if the similarities continue, the sales would be really low by late 2024, and better to strike while the iron is hot and all that.

 

[MisterSpo]

you think Prime 4 would end up at the end of the Switch's life? I guess that would make sense

how long do you think NLG will take? Luigi's Mansion 3 famously took like 6 or 7 years, but how well do you think they can bring that period down?

Where was it stated that Luigi's Mansion 3 took so long?

 

[Raccoon]

Where was it stated that Luigi's Mansion 3 took so long?

E3 2019 iirc, they mention it started development in 2013 for Wii U

I did forget about that Metroid Prime game though (thanks @Kano) so yeah

 

[lightning16]

Man that seems pretty late to me tbh. Maybe I'll feel differently by the end of this year, but idk. Switch sales are going to have slowed down A LOT by that point.

 

[kimbo99]

Saving my pennies and nickels now. So that I can purchase the big 3 current gen consoles someday

 

[Raccoon]

Man that seems pretty late to me tbh. Maybe I'll feel differently by the end of this year, but idk. Switch sales are going to have slowed down A LOT by that point.

the problem is that the numbers are unstoppable

it should have showed signs of slowing by now, but even mario kart, a game from 2014, can't be defeated

it's chilling, really. what if in 2023 the numbers are better than ever and they decide to push a new system back again? zelda 2 is gonna be like 20 fps probably, what if zelda 3 is 10?

Nintendo fans are truly suffering from success

 

[MisterSpo]

E3 2019 iirc, they mention it started development in 2013 for Wii U

I did forget about that Metroid Prime game though (thanks @Kano) so yeah

I don't see anything that says it was in the works as far back as 2013 - Tanabe says they came up with the slam move on Wii U, but doesn't provide a date. It was definitely in development in 2016, because LM3 moved from Wii U to Switch when NLG finished Federation Force. I don't see anything that supports a six or seven year development cycle; especially because Luigi's Mansion 2 launched in late 2013. Seems far more likely the game had a standard 3 to 4 year development.

 

[Imitatio]

Where was it stated that Luigi's Mansion 3 took so long?

Luigi's Mansion 3 apparently started out as a Wii U project

When it arrives later this year, Luigi’s Mansion 3 will be a Switch game. That apparently wasn’t the original plan, however. NIntendo’s Kensuke Tanabe indicated during a Nintendo Treehouse: Live segment at E3 today that Luigi’s Mansion 3 was originally a Wii U title. Regarding new moves, he said...

nintendoeverything.com

No specific date given, though.

Edit: hah, too slow.

 

[SammyJ9]

Late 2024/2025 is what I would have pegged for a complete brand-new system under relatively normal console circumstances. But with the Switch being what it is, and the power gap being what it is, and the whole DLSS rumors and all that, though, I'll still be shocked if we make it all the way until then without seeing some kind of performance-boosting upgrade.

 

[Raccoon]

I don't see anything that says it was in the works as far back as 2013 - Tanabe says they came up with the slam move on Wii U, but doesn't provide a date. It was definitely in development in 2016, because LM3 moved from Wii U to Switch when NLG finished Federation Force. I don't see anything that supports a six or seven year development cycle; especially because Luigi's Mansion 2 launched in late 2013. Seems far more likely the game had a standard 3 to 4 year development.

huh. my memory must be failing me. I'm not about to sit through an hour of treehouse streams to figure this out so I'll take your word for it

edit: sauce provided above, thanks @Imitatio

no idea how I got 2013 in my head

 

[Skipper93653]

I think we'll see NLG's game this year at the earliest whatever it may be.

 

[Kano]

I don't see anything that says it was in the works as far back as 2013 - Tanabe says they came up with the slam move on Wii U, but doesn't provide a date. It was definitely in development in 2016, because LM3 moved from Wii U to Switch when NLG finished Federation Force. I don't see anything that supports a six or seven year development cycle; especially because Luigi's Mansion 2 launched in late 2013. Seems far more likely the game had a standard 3 to 4 year development.

Actually, there are signs that the development was much earlier than that.

Rumor: Next Level Games Working on Unnanounced Wii U Game; Utilizes Nintendo IP

Here’s a fresh rumor to keep your mind working over the weekend! It has emerged that Next Level Games are...

www.nintendoenthusiast.com

We don't know how advanced it could have been back there of course, but I doubt the game was going to be planned for Wii U in 2016. It's safe to expect any game development started beyond 2015 was going to be made for NX.

 

[Skittzo]

the problem is that the numbers are unstoppable

it should have showed signs of slowing by now, but even mario kart, a game from 2014, can't be defeated

it's chilling, really. what if in 2023 the numbers are better than ever and they decide to push a new system back again? zelda 2 is gonna be like 20 fps probably, what if zelda 3 is 10?

Nintendo fans are truly suffering from success

It's already declining from 2020 in 2021 so I don't really see why it wouldn't decline further this year. At a certain point you can't sell the same console to so many people every year.

 

[MisterSpo]

But yeah it's difficult to figure out what the software slate will look like in 2024. Next Level Games could have something ready by then, if they don't ship something before that. Metroid Prime 4 might take that long, but personally I'm thinking that's late 2023. Paper Mario would be due by 2024 but that's hardly a major launch title (no disrespect). I'd also expect the next Pokemon generation by the end of 2023, rather than 2024, and who knows how Legends changes things on that front.

EPD is the wildcard, as usual. With the new office space being put into use at some point this year, it's possible capacity should expand more rapidly from this year onwards. But would that really make much of a difference in time for late 2024?

There's always the possibility EPD 8 ship Donkey Kong on Switch, EPD 9 ship a non-Kart title this year, and perhaps one of those groups then gets a shot at a launch title for the new hardware, probably EPD 8 with 3D Mario. Software announcements this year could clue us in a little. Be interesting to see what other EPD titles crop up for 2022 and 2023.

Actually, there are signs that the development was much earlier than that.

Rumor: Next Level Games Working on Unnanounced Wii U Game; Utilizes Nintendo IP

Here’s a fresh rumor to keep your mind working over the weekend! It has emerged that Next Level Games are...

www.nintendoenthusiast.com

We don't know how advanced it could have been back there of course, but I doubt the game was going to be planned for Wii U in 2016. It's safe to expect any game development started beyond 2015 was going to be made for NX.

Yeah, I'm saying it shifted from Wii U to Switch in 2016, but development presumably started before then. 2015 is reasonable but still a big step down from 6 to 7 years, which I found odd, because that'd peg development starting on Wii U in 2012 to 2013.

 

[Raccoon]

regardless of what path they take, Nintendo will be in a weird spot.

their pipeline, as kano has pointed out, has some flexibility built in. I still feel that 2022 or 2026 are better options than directly between them, but even in 2024 they'll survive. in any case there will be at least a little sitting imo

their hardware, meanwhile, compels them to act now. NVIDIA has new mobile hardware coming up in 2022, whether you believe the Nintendo specific rumors or not. maybe this hardware will be more affordable for a 2024 launch. maybe it'll be outdated and less. and with the supply chain issues there's no right time or right choice

their sales numbers, meanwhile, are very clear and opposite: wait as long as you fucking can to replace this magical money printer than just got mario kart 8 one of its best years ever. the longer they wait, however, the worse third party support will get (presumably)

there's no clear cut answer and no most logical path. they can do anything and it'll worth out fine, but the optimal succession plan is impossible to discern

 

[MisterSpo]

Maybe Nintendo just have their software slate cross-gen around then, and hope the system sells itself until Breath of the Wild 3 arrives in 2026 or 2027.

 

[Mekanos]

A Q4 launch for a Switch 2 would still be a shorter life cycle than the Xbox 360 > Xbox One, to put it in perspective.

 

[Pokemaniac]

I think I've made my position pretty clear on "Switch Pro". There was a time when such a revision was a serious possibility, but that window closed the moment the red box Switch launched without even getting a new name. While it remains somewhat of an unlikely theoretical scenario, there's enough working against it that I don't think the possibility is worth considering in the absence of any evidence in favor of it existing.

For Switch 2, though, 2024 seems way too far out. There are some pretty solid rumors that Nintendo has had devkits out for something with upgraded specs since late 2020/early 2021, and 3.5-4 years is a very long time to have devkits circulating. Personally I'm expecting early 2023 as the absolute latest unless something goes pretty catastrophically wrong.