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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

If Hi-fi Rush is really coming to Switch it only make sense to have a direct before or after the event to make it official especially if it's a partner direct
 
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I'd be very surprised. NoA and MS offices are literally across the street from each other. Phil Spencer could just walk up to Doug Bowser in person and say "Hey, we've got something planned for Thursday the 15th. If you have an announcement that day, then you should probably reschedule it."
it's probably a global direct, so ain't shit Bowser could do. and Nintendo wouldn't move anyway
 
FSR is pretty agnostic. Steam Deck has FSR1 built in as a default system scaling option, and of course plenty of PC games it runs offer FSR2.

FSR FG running on 3000 cards doesn't say much about DLSS FG, since they're done very differently. And if even higher end desktop 3000 cards don't have it in them to pull off decent DLSS FG, a low end mobile 3000 isn't going to stand a chance. Remember, T239 is low enough that we've spent a lot of time talking about how viable even its super scaling is to pull off, when on PC it's considered negligible.

Definitely they wanted Switch 1 out ASAP, but nobody was forcing them to go so silent for nearly three months after the October video.

So the reason I even stated FSR is working on the original Switch is to show that it is agnostic.

You stating that FSR FG running on 3000 series cards doesn't mean much is inaccurate.
If the RTX 30 cards received a slightly lower quality version of RTX FG, then what's the unique selling point of Lovelace over Ampere?
Those cards would have sold way worse if the previous generation can do everything the new cards do but slightly less performant.

Also even though DLSS has scaling with GPU and Tensor cores allotments, the OFA is independent of the GPU and has its own metrics.
Yes AMD and Nvidia's solutions are fundamentally different, but the fact that people have found a way to use AMD's algorithm to mod RTX 20 & 30 series cards to generate frames just proves its possible but just with a slight hit to image quality.
It's still fairly recent of a mod but I'm sure more videos will pop up of lower-mid level cards using this solution as well...
NVIDIA® GPUs, starting with the NVIDIA Turing™ generation, contain a hardware accelerator for computing optical flow and stereo disparity between frames (referred to as NVOFA in this document), which works independently of graphics/NVIDIA CUDA® cores. With end-to-end optical flow calculation offloaded to NVOFA, the graphics/CUDA cores and the CPU are free for other operations.

Optical flow vectors are useful in various use-cases such as object detection and tracking, video frame rate up-conversion, depth estimation, stitching etc. It is also observed that using flow vectors for object detection also increases inference accuracy1.

The hardware capabilities of NVOFA are exposed through APIs referred to as NVOF APIs.

Nobody here is expecting Switch 2 to have 1-1 fidelity with PS5 and Series X games, but PS4/PS4 Pro level of performance (handheld/docked) with very modern graphical features will net us a step above what was capable on PS4/PS4 Pro level hardware with better performance...

 
Oh. I hate very few things. I just was going for the game console with the least amount of memory. Racing the beam was a real thing - - and I'm not old enough to remember how exciting that was.

They have it so easy these days with their acceleration and fancy-schmancy game engines /sarcasm
 
Not that this needed any more corroboration, but Jeff Grubb is currently live and, regarding backwards compatibility on the new console, he specifically mentions, "from what I'm able to glean when I looked into this myself, it's definitely there"


This is good to hear but man I wish him or any other outlet would comment on/corroborate the March reveal! I’m confident in Nate’s reporting and Necro’s backed it up, but I was hoping it would cause a domino effect.
 
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I got my SNES when the all stars bundle came out.

It was iirc 180 or 150 CAD at Zellers with like a 20 dollar rebate. I bought it with my own money for Xmas that year. Walked it all the way home from the store (a 50 minute walk)

To this day I have my SNES box with a cut out where the upc code was for the rebate.
That's a very nice memory to have.

I have kind of a similar memory: bought a CRT tv in my teens for peanuts from my friend (around US$6 🤣) that I had to lug around all the way to the closest busy street to catch a cab, then lug around from the street close to home up the stairs because we lived in a unit. All alone. And it was one of the bigger ones as well. I still can't believe how I did that to this day. All so I can game in my room. The power of gaming adrenaline 🤣

uh he said something about Nintendo having a direct ready for Thursday but may move it cause of Xbox. Although he said it's probably going to be on Thursday still and that maybe Nintendo (NoA) was taken aback by the Xbox podcast.
I'd be very surprised. NoA and MS offices are literally across the street from each other. Phil Spencer could just walk up to Doug Bowser in person and say "Hey, we've got something planned for Thursday the 15th. If you have an announcement that day, then you should probably reschedule it."
What 😂

Nintendo aren't moving anything for anyone. It's the other way around, if that ever happens.
 
They have it so easy these days with their acceleration and fancy-schmancy game engines /sarcasm
The PPU in the NES was fancy as fuck compared to this. I remember learning about how excited game developers were that they'd be able to program in C instead of assembly or pure machine code. They were talking about the PSX and the N64.
 
Core count is irrelevant, as shader compilation is single-threaded. While I don't know how Nvidia will implement their shader-JIT, I would bet significant amounts of money it's single threaded too.

You can't raise clock speed either. The ramp up speed on ARM processors is anywhere from 19-210ms. You need to have shader compilation complete in less than 1ms to achieve good performance with this technique. Which, for the record, I think is totally possible.
If there's any scenario where they'll have more than one shader to work on at once, it's trivial to parallelize that. Invoking compilers for multiple translation units at once is a very common strategy for making compilers go faster.
 
So is there any insight into what kind of carts this is going to use? I know that the 64 GB carts were basically never used because of price
 
I'm back to reading this thread after a few months of pause and I wanted to ask - what's the current reasoning behind thinking T239 was switched to TSMC N4? From my understanding it's a mix of people hearing about it here and there - and Samsung 8nm being completely inadequate for Nintendo's consumption and clock targets.

So, in short, a similar stance to backwards compatibility where it's like "everyone has heard it, it being wrong would make no sense and it being right would make sense".

Am I missing anything? Note — this is not a snarky attempt at doubting the claim, just wanna be sure that's where we are (I did use to be pessimistic/skeptical about it a year ago but not anymore!)

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I… actually think most people are being overly pessimistic about the system's raw rasterizing performance. People keep bringing up DLSS everywhere, and that's fair, but the thing is going to have similar TFLOPS count to the PS4 Pro… which used GCN4. An ancient architecture that probably achieves 1.5~2 times less raw performance per TFLOPS than Ampere. With these targets, there's no reason for me to think the Switch 2 won't wipe the floor with last gen even if DLSS wasn't a factor!
 
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I'm back to reading this thread after a few months of pause and I wanted to ask - what's the current reasoning behind thinking T239 was switched to TSMC N4? From my understanding it's a mix of people hearing about it here and there - and Samsung 8nm being completely inadequate for Nintendo's consumption and clock targets.

I didn’t think anybody had heard about it? I thought it was entirely the latter.
 
I'm back to reading this thread after a few months of pause and I wanted to ask - what's the current reasoning behind thinking T239 was switched to TSMC N4? From my understanding it's a mix of people hearing about it here and there - and Samsung 8nm being completely inadequate for Nintendo's consumption and clock targets.

So, in short, a similar stance to backwards compatibility where it's like "everyone has heard it, it being wrong would make no sense and it being right would make sense".

Am I missing anything? Note — this is not a snarky attempt at doubting the claim, just wanna be sure that's where we are (I did use to be pessimistic/skeptical about it a year ago but not anymore!)
No one's heard anything about what the size of the thing is I think. The reason why it's thought to be 4nm was that it was both cheaper and more efficient than the other options. Nintendo would need a bigger console, better heating solutions, etc while also paying more for the chip if they went for a larger size.
 
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I'm back to reading this thread after a few months of pause and I wanted to ask - what's the current reasoning behind thinking T239 was switched to TSMC N4? From my understanding it's a mix of people hearing about it here and there - and Samsung 8nm being completely inadequate for Nintendo's consumption and clock targets.

So, in short, a similar stance to backwards compatibility where it's like "everyone has heard it, it being wrong would make no sense and it being right would make sense".
We don't know anything about it being "switched," from 8N, for all we know it was never on 8N to begin with. Kopite said it was on 8N like a couple years ago or so, but in that same post also said a bunch of other stuff about T239 that he later backtracked on. So even that 8N claim should be taken with a grain of salt at this point.

I'm no expert on this stuff and maybe others will answer better, but from what I've gleaned is that not only would 4N be much more power efficient and give Nintendo the sweet battery life, but also it was taped out alongside (and shares some similarities with) Lovelace, which is built on 4N.

Plus knowing the specs of the chip (especially it having 12SM) the heat it would generate and the power it would consume would be such that Nintendo would have to clock it pretty low in order to get a decent battery life, and if they have to clock it so low that it loses a bunch of power, then it defeats the purpose a bit. Better to make a chip closer to the initial, pre-leak assumptions (which was I think 8SM?) that wouldn't be so large, hot, and power-hungry on 8N and wouldn't have to be clocked so low. There's a reason people were surprised when the Nvidia leaks showed the specs, as they're a bit wild for 8N in a handheld form factor running off a battery. 4N just makes more sense for the thermals and consumption, at similar clocks to the current Switch, and iirc it would even be roughly the same size as the chip in the current Switch.

4N just makes the most sense. At this point if it is 8N I'd assume they just got a really really good price from Nvidia.


Please correct me if any of this is inaccurate, I'm normally just a lurker here but I'm somewhat excitable this week so 😅
 
Thraktor's post is mandatory reading for the 4N vs. 8nm discussion. He explains in exquisite detail that a 12 SM chip at 8nm cannot physically give you a GPU power draw close to that of the OG Switch even if you drop the clocks as low as you can. It would probably need to have a battery that is like 3x the size of the current one to maintain Switch 1 battery life I think. And even if you do, it will likely be one hot potato in your hands.

Edit: Also, Kopite7kimi made it clear back in 2022 that they didn't know the process node:



It's funny. What I said about "the new Switch SoC"?
1. T239 [TRUE]
2. Black Knight/Dane Whitman [FALSE] (Tim Drake is also start from D.)

3. AD10F/based on Ada Lovelace [FALSE] (GA10F)

4. SEC8N/the same as Orin [???]
5. 1024FP32/half of Orin [???]
The SM count (and thus 1536 CUDA cores) has since been confirmed from the NVIDIA cybertheft leak. Process node is officially a question mark, but no insider has made any comment either way about it.
 
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Information travels very fast if it's a HOT product, which is what the Switch is. Wii and Wii U were not hot, there was no momentum. Nintendo benefits from doing a quick rollout rather than extending the marketing cycle and hurting sales of the OG Switch. Once the announcement is made, the decline of the OG sales will become stronger unless they do an aggressive price cut.

If the PS5 sold out almost by default, the Switch 2 will do just fine considering how the Switch has done and is still doing.
Considering how the PS5's full reveal came 5 months before launch, and Sony uploaded a video talking about the specs 3 months before that, I wouldn't really consider that the best example to use if you think a quick rollout is better for Nintendo
 
N64 was 1996 and GameCube was 2001
Depends on where you live. For example Game Cube released in 2002 here. But the release date still doesn't matter for my "5 year interval" because as a kid I didn't always get the consoles on release.

Edit: The assumption that everyone comes from USA gets tiresome.
Edit Edit: But I know you only meant it as information so no hard feelings.
 
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SC, what does the I in IRC stand for?


That's if it doesn't just use the existing Dock with LAN Port!

Internet Chat relay I believe. It was Windows 95 stuff lol. I was a kid back then so I didnt use it much. Club pogo was the place to be. It was like a early early form of Roblox if it were just a website lol

On July 1, 2024 if no Switch 2; -k #famiboards ShareholderChad (sorry, but it's july)

That might be the one date if it comes out Ill punch air.
 
I read "latter" and understood as "last". But it makes sense. It's a console on its fourth year on the market and a revision coming down the line that is more hardcore focused than general appeal.
 
4 years and it still feels like I'm waiting on it to begin
Although improbable, it wouldn't surprise me if they delay the PS5 Pro and rebrand it as the successor console (PS6) and price drop the current PS lineup. Revising your console from 24 to 21 million sales is no small feat, especially when you're competitors are:
  • An old, underpowered console (compared to yours), that is dominating the charts and is on the eve of a successor console;
  • You're "proper" competitor only sells a 1/3 of what you sell.
 
I honest to God think the future of gaming is portable, hybrid consoles. A contended hybrid market between Nintendo and Sony would be veery interesting, especially if Sony uses their third party exclusive money to help third parties develop exclusive software to their platform and, in a way, reduce dev costs because you're not trying to deliver the most realistic graphics ever
 
Considering how the PS5's full reveal came 5 months before launch, and Sony uploaded a video talking about the specs 3 months before that, I wouldn't really consider that the best example to use if you think a quick rollout is better for Nintendo
Yeah I was not very clear. By default I meant that it was a very safe follow up to the PS4 and without many killer apps. I think people would have bought it regardless of the marketing strategy. It’s a new Playstation, and that’s about it. I think Nintendo is at last in a similar position where strong momentum will guarantee a strong beginning of the generation wether they do 4 or 9 months of marketing.

I mean, even Kit and Krysta, who worked at marketing both the launch of the Switch and the launch of BOTW, say that there is no way to measure the impact of marketing and wether what they did had a positive impact or not in the sales of the products marketed.

By that I mean that it could either way, and I personally feel they can and they will do a quick rollout. We’ll discover soon enough!
 
Folks, we should start discussing the generation after ReDraketed, because Sony just officially said in their briefing that PS5 is entering "the latter stage of it's lifecycle".
Is its first party library even in the double figures yet?? (Serious question)
 
I read "latter" and understood as "last". But it makes sense. It's a console on its fourth year on the market and a revision coming down the line that is more hardcore focused than general appeal.

And yet it feels like we're still waiting for something that would be truly next gen...
An entire gen just for GTA 6 maybe.
 
I honest to God think the future of gaming is portable, hybrid consoles. A contended hybrid market between Nintendo and Sony would be veery interesting, especially if Sony uses their third party exclusive money to help third parties develop exclusive software to their platform and, in a way, reduce dev costs because you're not trying to deliver the most realistic graphics ever

The thing is, you're right that it's almost inevitably the only sustainable path, but from Sony's perspective, it's not a choice they can make and practically the easiest layup ever for Nintendo being completely market dominant if they concede that.

After all, Nintendo have got 3.5 decades of history of being the undisputed handheld people, Sony meanwhile have positioned themselves as the big home console box pushing boundaries at the expense of everything else. If they ever give up that perspective in the public eye, it's going to hit them hard financially, because they'd then essentially be admitting that Nintendo made the right gamble two decades ago when they saw where all this tech chasing would lead.
 
Is its first party library even in the double figures yet?? (Serious question)
If you mean exclusives yes, but for how long?
According to Wikipedia there are only 13 PS5-only games, and we know that probably at least 4 of those will come to PC in the near future (Death Stranding 2, Quantum Error and the two Marvel games).
If you mean developed in house, no.

Meanwhile the Wii U has 35 exclusives (wiki), hopefully at least Xenoblade X and the two Zelda remakes will come to Switch 2.
 
Yeah I was not very clear. By default I meant that it was a very safe follow up to the PS4 and without many killer apps. I think people would have bought it regardless of the marketing strategy. It’s a new Playstation, and that’s about it. I think Nintendo is at last in a similar position where strong momentum will guarantee a strong beginning of the generation wether they do 4 or 9 months of marketing.

I mean, even Kit and Krysta, who worked at marketing both the launch of the Switch and the launch of BOTW, say that there is no way to measure the impact of marketing and wether what they did had a positive impact or not in the sales of the products marketed.

By that I mean that it could either way, and I personally feel they can and they will do a quick rollout. We’ll discover soon enough!

Sometimes people confuse what is likely to happen with what they want to happen - and this has happened a lot in the thread over the last 2 years.

I feel like there's almost no real evidence pointing towards a release of the new hardware any time soon (next 6 months), although a reveal in March for a later Sept-Nov release is still a short turn around by Nintendo's standards - Switch aside, when they were in a desperate situation to get a new console out asap.

When I say 'evidence' I also mean actual evidence. Not the sort of evidence which people have been showing me since late 2022 saying Switch 2 is definitely in production or definitely coming out in the next 3 months.

Who knows though....even a broken clock is right twice a day and all that. Maybe on this occasion the time will be the right one. Let us hope.
 
Sometimes people confuse what is likely to happen with what they want to happen - and this has happened a lot in the thread over the last 2 years.

I feel like there's almost no real evidence pointing towards a release of the new hardware any time soon (next 6 months), although a reveal in March for a later Sept-Nov release is still a short turn around by Nintendo's standards - Switch aside, when they were in a desperate situation to get a new console out asap.

When I say 'evidence' I also mean actual evidence. Not the sort of evidence which people have been showing me since late 2022 saying Switch 2 is definitely in production or definitely coming out in the next 3 months.

Who knows though....even a broken clock is right twice a day and all that. Maybe on this occasion the time will be the right one. Let us hope.
didn’t all of the switch models get released within a 3-4 month time period from reveal?
 
It's true that the Switch short marketing cycle was partially influenced by the Nintendo situation due to the Wii U failure. What I don't understand is why some of you think they aren't willing to repeat it when it was an absolute and unprecedented success.
 
Some seems to have this odd fixation toward six months thing (reveal to release) that doesn’t seem to be rooted into any sort of precedent as far as I know, I don’t know where that came from either
 
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Sometimes people confuse what is likely to happen with what they want to happen - and this has happened a lot in the thread over the last 2 years.

I feel like there's almost no real evidence pointing towards a release of the new hardware any time soon (next 6 months), although a reveal in March for a later Sept-Nov release is still a short turn around by Nintendo's standards - Switch aside, when they were in a desperate situation to get a new console out asap.

When I say 'evidence' I also mean actual evidence. Not the sort of evidence which people have been showing me since late 2022 saying Switch 2 is definitely in production or definitely coming out in the next 3 months.

Who knows though....even a broken clock is right twice a day and all that. Maybe on this occasion the time will be the right one. Let us hope.

I mean, when you look at it rationally, there is so much information that we lack at any given moment that's impossible to "prove" or even correctly infer anything, as this thread and many others have consistently proven. We simply don't have the full picture.

Sure there are loose patterns being followed (until they aren't) and tidbits of leaked information (grain of salt usually required), but using any of these to establish with confidence when/if something will happen is an exercise of self-delusion at best. Usually informed by our wishes as hardcore fans more than anything else, as you correctly pointed out.

It's true that the Switch short marketing cycle was partially influenced by the Nintendo situation due to the Wii U failure. What I don't understand is why some of you think they aren't willing to repeat it when it was an absolute and unprecedented success.
Well, for once, success is not necessarily correlated only to marketing, and certainly not the length of the marketing cycle, as many other successful consoles demonstrate.
In essence, I don't think "if it ain't broke don't fix it" is a very sound argument when looking at console launches 7+ years apart with many more complex circumstances to consider.
 
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Sometimes people confuse what is likely to happen with what they want to happen - and this has happened a lot in the thread over the last 2 years.

I feel like there's almost no real evidence pointing towards a release of the new hardware any time soon (next 6 months), although a reveal in March for a later Sept-Nov release is still a short turn around by Nintendo's standards - Switch aside, when they were in a desperate situation to get a new console out asap.

When I say 'evidence' I also mean actual evidence. Not the sort of evidence which people have been showing me since late 2022 saying Switch 2 is definitely in production or definitely coming out in the next 3 months.

Who knows though....even a broken clock is right twice a day and all that. Maybe on this occasion the time will be the right one. Let us hope.
I don’t appreciate the superiority tone from your post, as in there is one truth and you hold it, where as the rest we are dellusional and want to believe whatever fits our narrative. We all have our opinions based on history and context, and we don’t need to call people broken clocks or be dismissive, not even one bit.
 
I don’t appreciate the superiority tone from your post, as in there is one truth and you hold it, where as the rest we are dellusional and want to believe whatever fits our narrative. We all have our opinions based on history and context, and we don’t need to call people broken clocks or be dismissive, not even one bit.

There's no superiority but rather a thirst for evidence.

I personally feel if the Switch 2 was as close as some think then there would be a lot more noise.

Like you say though, we'll find out soon enough and as I've said previously, I hope you're right and I'm wrong! ha
 
My assessment is that we're kinda starting to hit a bottleneck when it comes to "traditional console lifecycles." Everyone probably knows that Moore's Law is reaching the point of diminishing returns. It feels like this gen just got started, even though I kick myself to remind my brain every now and then that the PS5 and Series X/S released in 2020.

Covid certainly did not help things development wise, which is probably one of the reasons why it took a long time to really feel like next-gen was an upgrade. However, even with no Covid, we are definitely getting to a point where we can look at images of PS4 and PS5 games and our minds can process them the same. Which is probably why AI upscalers are becoming as prominent as they are.

Out of curiosity, is it possible new consoles might start being content with adding "tensor" cores every couple of years, opposed to full-on new hardware? Or will consoles still try to put in the effort to try and upgrade as much as they can?
 
okay…but the switch was revealed on october 20th and release march 3rd. 4.5 months my bad.

Sure, and as I've mentioned over several posts, this is a different situation. Nintendo then were desperate to get a new console out asap. Now they're in a more relaxed and controlled position - I therefore think the following could be more likely:

Reveal - March-June
Games Blowout - June
Direct - September
Release - Sept-Oct

We should keep in mind that, Switch aside, a March reveal to a Sept/Oct release would still be a short turn around by Nintendo standards when it comes to next generation console launches.

Like I say though, I hope I'm wrong because I also wanted Switch 2 yesterday. I just feel there isn't a lot pointing towards that happening.
 
I feel like there's almost no real evidence pointing towards a release of the new hardware any time soon (next 6 months), although a reveal in March for a later Sept-Nov release is still a short turn around by Nintendo's standards - Switch aside, when they were in a desperate situation to get a new console out asap.
While I kind of agree I think the real evidence we have indicate that a sept-nov release is very feasible and since it doesn’t make much sense to release in dec-feb, waiting to march 2025 or beyond seems unlikely.

And by real evidence I mean the nvidia leak mainly. But also the reports from gamescom about Nintendo demoing the hardware which has been reported by many different sources that we usually consider quite reliable. My take away from all we learned is that barring some unknown major technical problems or something, they should be ready to mass produce by now or the coming months.

Edit: based on later post I think we mostly agree on the timeline
 
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Sure, and as I've mentioned over several posts, this is a different situation. Nintendo then were desperate to get a new console out asap. Now they're in a more relaxed and controlled position - I therefore think the following could be more likely:

Reveal - March-June
Games Blowout - June
Direct - September
Release - Sept-Oct

We should keep in mind that, Switch aside, a March reveal to a Sept/Oct release would still be a short turn around by Nintendo standards when it comes to next generation console launches.

Like I say though, I hope I'm wrong because I also wanted Switch 2 yesterday. I just feel there isn't a lot pointing towards that happening.
My problem with your reasoning (I will explain my problem with my own reasoning later in the post) is that companies do evolve and their marketing teams too, so I think the only real comparison that can be really done is with Switch, not Wii U or 3DS. Those were marketed in a very different moment in marketing history. The other is the assumption that since they were desperate (I fully agree they were and Kit and Krysta have said so), the Switch case doesn't count for comparison sake (I understand but I don't fully agree, just a little bit), and since they were desperate, they did a quick rollout (This I don't agree with). If they did push the release from late 2016 to early 2017 because they needed the software to be ready, they could have started with marketing earlier and pushed for commercials for a couple more months in order to get the message across. What I mean by this is that if you want, you can also turn this fact the other way around. We have no way of really knowing unless Nintendo describes what they tried to achieve and that will never happen.

I do agree though that I see very little smoke for a May-July release, which is my take (I'm leaning more towards June), but at the same time we know nothing about the production lines and how much they will be able to produce every month. The bigger problem for me with my reasoning actually is the marketing cycle for the first party game or games that will come out with the Switch 2, since I don't remember any AAA Nintendo game with a quick marketing cycle (Please correct me if I'm wrong). That's actually the part of the whole deal that makes me think they may not do an early Summer release.
 
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