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Rumour Xbox First Party going third party/multiplat - Discussing and Summary Thread (UPDATE: 4 Xbox exclusives are coming to Nintendo Switch and PS5)

I worry that this is the first major event signalling a foreboding, impending video game crash. The AAA industry has gotten so big that it's unsustainable. We see this through the major wait times for many AAA games (especially on PS/Xbox) as well as the insanely high budgets for games like Spider-Man 2 as per the Insomniac hack.

Xbox's potential move to third-party would be the first self-contained event that signals another video game crash approaching. AAA video game development is only getting bigger and pricier, and we simultaneously run the risk of Sony making more anti-consumer decisions once their biggest competitor is eliminated from the hardware market. (Obviously Nintendo is a major competitor too, but I'd argue that the hybrid model is in line with Nintendo's Blue Ocean strategy, meaning that PS5/Switch are more likely to coexist in a living room as opposed to PS5/Xbox, in which consumers are more likely to choose one over the other.)

I fear for the future of this industry. I've never been an Xbox guy but if they end up going third-party, I fear it's a sign of even worse things to come.
 
switchum said:
I worry that this is the first major event signalling a foreboding, impending video game crash. The AAA industry has gotten so big that it's unsustainable. We see this through the major wait times for many AAA games (especially on PS/Xbox) as well as the insanely high budgets for games like Spider-Man 2 as per the Insomniac hack.

Xbox's potential move to third-party would be the first self-contained event that signals another video game crash approaching. AAA video game development is only getting bigger and pricier, and we simultaneously run the risk of Sony making more anti-consumer decisions once their biggest competitor is eliminated from the hardware market. (Obviously Nintendo is a major competitor too, but I'd argue that the hybrid model is in line with Nintendo's Blue Ocean strategy, meaning that PS5/Switch are more likely to coexist in a living room as opposed to PS5/Xbox, in which consumers are more likely to choose one over the other.)

I fear for the future of this industry. I've never been an Xbox guy but if they end up going third-party, I fear it's a sign of even worse things to come.
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Nah, this is completely on MS. All their small errors have been building up to this
 
So, I haven't been paying much attention, and I was under impression that most reports pointed to Microsoft considering a multi-platform software strategy; but people seem to be acting as if something more dramatic is happening?

Any sources that really point to anything drastic occurring? Microsoft taking a GamePass first, other platforms 6 to 12 months later approach wouldn't surprise me; the economics of GamePass were always somewhat spurious and hardware sales aren't picking up, so they obviously need to drive revenue somewhere. But there seems to be some suggestion they're dropping hardware?
 
MisterSpo said:
So, I haven't been paying much attention, and I was under impression that most reports pointed to Microsoft considering a multi-platform software strategy; but people seem to be acting as if something more dramatic is happening?
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It would mean xbox isn’t mainly focused on consoles, and they are more focused on getting their games flourishing. They might (and probably will) still make consoles, but they wouldn’t at all be necessary
 
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switchum said:
I worry that this is the first major event signalling a foreboding, impending video game crash. The AAA industry has gotten so big that it's unsustainable. We see this through the major wait times for many AAA games (especially on PS/Xbox) as well as the insanely high budgets for games like Spider-Man 2 as per the Insomniac hack.

Xbox's potential move to third-party would be the first self-contained event that signals another video game crash approaching. AAA video game development is only getting bigger and pricier, and we simultaneously run the risk of Sony making more anti-consumer decisions once their biggest competitor is eliminated from the hardware market. (Obviously Nintendo is a major competitor too, but I'd argue that the hybrid model is in line with Nintendo's Blue Ocean strategy, meaning that PS5/Switch are more likely to coexist in a living room as opposed to PS5/Xbox, in which consumers are more likely to choose one over the other.)

I fear for the future of this industry. I've never been an Xbox guy but if they end up going third-party, I fear it's a sign of even worse things to come.
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I think this is indeed a problem for Xbox and Playstation to a certain extent. Buying big companies cost money, people with little knowledge expect big money quick. This is not how it works. Xbox seems to be part of problems that happened during the pandemic and the gaming boom during that time.

It may sound bias saying this on a Nintendo focused forum, but Nintendo seems to be mainly stable on development costs. Though as we do not have any insight in Nintendo's development. Based on everything I feel costs are much lower for them compared to the other two. I have sadly not done my research on this to be certain.
 
Vantell said:
I think this is indeed a problem for Xbox and Playstation to a certain extent. Buying big companies cost money, people with little knowledge expect big money quick. This is not how it works. Xbox seems to be part of problems that happened during the pandemic and the gaming boom during that time.

It may sound bias saying this on a Nintendo focused forum, but Nintendo seems to be mainly stable on development costs. Though as we do not have any insight in Nintendo's development. Based on everything I feel costs are much lower for them compared to the other two. I have sadly not done my research on this to be certain.
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I also think it's worth noting that, while Xbox seems to struggle to release consistent exclusives (and PlayStation as well honestly), Nintendo doesn't have this problem. In fact, it's pretty clear that they are willing to sit on finished games for YEARS until they find optimal times to release them. I think it's fair to assume that they're much more stable in development, and I assume that has a lot to do with costs.
 
MisterSpo said:
But there seems to be some suggestion they're dropping hardware?
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People assume that's the obvious next step since there is little incentive to buy an Xbox if there's nothing that's actually exclusive to the hardware, but none of the rumors AFAIK have said anything about leaving them leaving the hardware market in conjunction with this new publishing strategy.
 
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MisterSpo said:
Any sources that really point to anything drastic occurring?
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No, but that never stops children from spreading unwarranted speculation schoolyard-style, and without clear clarification, the flames fan wide.

Playstation sells a share of their games on PC now. Xbox has dabbled already, off and on, never focused. I don't quite see the leap to "zero hardware" either, but maybe that's the logical endstep a few years from now.

I've never seen XBOX, Microsoft, or their gaming division ever really unified in their lifetime, so it feels like another wide-scale strategy shift in a long line of crisscross applesauce.

As long as GFWL or the Windows Game Store never returns, I perceive them much the same as ever. I guess Playstation-only and Nintendo-only game players have more of an interest, since some games might be a novelty to them.
 
Microsoft hasn't said they would stop making hardware. I think the fear from people is that without a lineup of exclusives, there is less of a reason for buying an Xbox. As sales of the hardware decline, so will Game Pass subscriptions, so will the 30% cut Microsoft gets from third party sales. If the userbase becomes too small, third parties might not port their games over at all unless Microsoft gives them the cash through a Game Pass deal or something.

So people are concerned about a possible domino effect that will result in fewer support for the Xbox consoles and ultimately, Microsoft might conclude that it's not worth the development and manufacturing of their own devices some years down the line.
 
A change in this industry is inevitable going forward. I don't understand why the big publishers maneuvered into this situation, when they knew the outcome years ago. Why didn't they focused on smaller games like Nintendo (i mean small budget games btw. not small in scope)?

Imagine a publisher like EA, Take Two or Sony just releasing 1 or 2 AAA games a year, together with smaller AA titles in the scale of Luigis Mansion 3, Pikmin 4, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3.

Why do we need expensive Hollywood artists in our games? Why open world on every game? Is voiceover nessesary? Many of these features aren't needed. Just focus on a nice presentation, and quality gameplay. Nintendo is doing this and its working good.

Some devs are changing direction like UbiSoft with Prince of Persia and i hope, this will work for them too. That is the only way to save the industry. Keep making your AAA projects, but at the same time, do some smaller high quality games.
 
HockeyBird said:
Microsoft hasn't said they would stop making hardware. I think the fear from people is that without a lineup of exclusives, there is less of a reason for buying an Xbox. As sales of the hardware decline, so will Game Pass subscriptions, so will the 30% cut Microsoft gets from third party sales. If the userbase becomes too small, third parties might not port their games over at all unless Microsoft gives them the cash through a Game Pass deal or something.

So people are concerned about a possible domino effect that will result in fewer support for the Xbox consoles and ultimately, Microsoft might conclude that it's not worth the development and manufacturing of their own devices some years down the line.
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It doesn't take a genius to figure out that a platform holder ending their games' exclusivity makes their box largely pointless when their direct competitor has a box that's like 90% identical with its own exclusives. While I would never accuse the fine folks at the Microsoft Corporation of making a wise business decision, I would think they'd understand this basic premise of how this market works after over twenty years in it. There are other benefits of selling boxes, but it's tougher to justify selling them at a loss when they're thinning their own margins from software development as is.
 
Apopheniac said:
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that a platform holder ending their games' exclusivity makes their box largely pointless when their direct competitor has a box that's like 90% identical with its own exclusives. While I would never accuse the fine folks at the Microsoft Corporation of making a wise business decision, I would think they'd understand this basic premise of how this market works after over twenty years in it. There are other benefits of selling boxes, but it's tougher to justify selling them at a loss when they're thinning their own margins from software development as is.
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Maybe they think they can more money releasing games via gamepass first, then 3-6 months later for $70 a pop on Sony and Nintendo.

I honestly think they're aiming to be a game streaming service in a few years. The issue has been getting whatever they need to be acceptable for that technology wise. Get that right, and they just need to sell you a controller bundled with 3 months of gamepass.
 
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zdravkelja said:
Switch 2 would be the obvious choice. Why waste time trying to optimize the game for a significantly weaker system when it's successor is coming out this year.
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depends on when Bethesda studios are getting Switch 2 kits

if they haven't gotten them yet than Hi Fi Rush on Switch 2 in 2025 won't exactly be striking while the iron is hot...
HockeyBird said:


Grief stage still undetermined.
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anger for sure
 
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And now natethehate is clarifying he expects some xbox exclusives to stay exclusive and no xbox hardware exit is planned. Who knows what, whatever MS is currently planning and what happens beyond those plans. Who knows?
 
grobla123 said:
And now natethehate is clarifying he expects some xbox exclusives to stay exclusive and no xbox hardware exit is planned. Who knows what, whatever MS is currently planning and what happens beyond those plans. Who knows?
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It being somewhat staggered wouldn't be surprising, but if you're opening pandora's box by still making a sizeable amount of games multiplats, it's only a matter of time before the other stuff eventually comes over as well.

Like, a half-step here seems like the worst of both worlds. Bringing a good amount but not all the games is only going to further dissuade those who would pick up the hardware, and whatever remains exclusive. It's a shrinking exclusive library, and there's the hesitation that eventually those exclusives will get ported.
 
Rooster said:
It being somewhat staggered wouldn't be surprising, but if you're opening pandora's box by still making a sizeable amount of games multiplats, it's only a matter of time before the other stuff eventually comes over as well.

Like, a half-step here seems like the worst of both worlds. Bringing a good amount but not all the games is only going to further dissuade those who would pick up the hardware, and whatever remains exclusive. It's a shrinking exclusive library, and there's the hesitation that eventually those exclusives will get ported.
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Don't disagree, but I do think its possible to retain some interest in xbox by keeping like halo/forza and some bigger releases exclusive for 2-3 years after launch, or completely exclusive to xbox platforms.

I don't think hi-fi rush really moves the needle for many people (despite it being the best game from 2023 ;) ). But Starfield, Indi. Avowed. That would be different.

But yeah even that would put some pressure on console sales and MS isn't doing too hot there. I mean, I've faltered on buying a PS5 because most games eventually come to PC. MS is in a worse situation, most everything comes to PC and now some to PS5 and maybe Switch 2? They could be making the bet that the extra sales are worth more than the how many console/ecosystem customers they may lose. Which may be the case.
 
Rooster said:
It being somewhat staggered wouldn't be surprising, but if you're opening pandora's box by still making a sizeable amount of games multiplats, it's only a matter of time before the other stuff eventually comes over as well.

Like, a half-step here seems like the worst of both worlds. Bringing a good amount but not all the games is only going to further dissuade those who would pick up the hardware, and whatever remains exclusive. It's a shrinking exclusive library, and there's the hesitation that eventually those exclusives will get ported.
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Yeah I’m not really getting Microsoft’s plans if they’re not planning to wind down on making hardware and release all their games everywhere. Series X and S sales are already pretty mediocre, what is going to make their next generation of hardware any more appealing if they start releasing some of their own games on other consoles? What is the long term plan?
 
YoboD said:
Yeah I’m not really getting Microsoft’s plans if they’re not planning to wind down on making hardware and release all their games everywhere. Series X and S sales are already pretty mediocre, what is going to make their next generation of hardware any more appealing if they start releasing some of their own games on other consoles? What is the long term plan?
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I think the long term plan is just to earn as much money as possible while they limp their way to next gen, where hopefully they can come out the gate with a big exciting batch of games from all their new studios. If Xbox consoles were still selling and Gamepass subscriptions still growing, then they wouldn't be doing this. I get the confusion as to why this is happening with Series X/S sales so low, but honestly, it may be that those consoles are lost causes now, kinda like the Wii U was. Short term, while they get their ducks in a row for next gen, it may make sense to leverage their huge number of studios and past games to maximise profit.

Starfield definitely seems to have spooked them. That would have been a game that traditionally would have earned squillions in day 1 revenue, but they were banking on it boosting their console sales and gamepass subs to cover that shortfall. Neither of those objectives have been met, hence they're scrambling to generate the kind of money they missed out on initially by putting it on the much better selling PS5
 
Galgavias said:
I think the long term plan is just to earn as much money as possible while they limp their way to next gen, where hopefully they can come out the gate with a big exciting batch of games from all their new studios. If Xbox consoles were still selling and Gamepass subscriptions still growing, then they wouldn't be doing this. I get the confusion as to why this is happening with Series X/S sales so low, but honestly, it may be that those consoles are lost causes now, kinda like the Wii U was. Short term, while they get their ducks in a row for next gen, it may make sense to leverage their huge number of studios and past games to maximise profit.

Starfield definitely seems to have spooked them. That would have been a game that traditionally would have earned squillions in day 1 revenue, but they were banking on it boosting their console sales and gamepass subs to cover that shortfall. Neither of those objectives have been met, hence they're scrambling to generate the kind of money they missed out on initially by putting it on the much better selling PS5
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I have thought of this too, but I'm not exactly sure how effective it will be. Maybe getting Halo (for instance) on a lot of people's hands, raising interest for the franchise and then gatekeeping it back to the Xbox? But then again, it might feel more annoying than anything else.

I think that going third party, even with timed exclusives and whatever, is the first step before disappearing as a console manufacturer. Which sucks because I really, really like the hardware. The Xbox elite controller owns. Backwards compatibility and FPS Boost are incredible. The UI is good. If only the games had come out before.
 
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grobla123 said:
Why were games still $60 or less in the first place for so long? Competition. Devs feared people would buy cheaper games rather than pricier ones. Without competition that would have happened sooner. We know from internal discussions from Take 2, that there is "little resistance" to $70 titles for most day 1 purchasers and that has been the case for a while. Companies like making more money. They didn't just magically think its time to charge more, they have metrics and knew people would pay it.

You lack imagination. The industry can and will eventually do worse than game prices trailing inflation. $80-90 games, worse monetization, pay to win, games split in half for multiple releases, increased subscription prices, mandated subscriptions to play single players games, no longer selling consoles at a loss at launch, unskippple ads in games, digital only licenses, no pre owned goods, less or no sales.

I don't meant to be alarmist, Don't get me wrong it wont all happen over night, much of this may never come. But the companies will dip their toes in the water. Its harder to try this when you have a direct competitor who can take some marketshare if they decide not to.

Nothing is truly off the table when their is little competition, as long as enough consumers put up with it, which enough will. The market will find its new equilibrium without Microsoft selling hardware. That new level will be worse for consumers.

Thankfully games don't have inelastic demand (well you would think, but they sell pretty surprisingly well economic downturns), you can live without games, they are a luxury, so little of this really matters.
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Many people just won't buy games at that point
 
Ozeiyo said:
I have thought of this too, but I'm not exactly sure how effective it will be. Maybe getting Halo (for instance) on a lot of people's hands, raising interest for the franchise and then gatekeeping it back to the Xbox? But then again, it might feel more annoying than anything else.

I think that going third party, even with timed exclusives and whatever, is the first step before disappearing as a console manufacturer. Which sucks because I really, really like the hardware. The Xbox elite controller owns. Backwards compatibility and FPS Boost are incredible. The UI is good. If only the games had come out before.
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I agree that they would have to keep some games exclusive to Xbox if they have any intention of staying in the console market. That's why I'm sceptical that this is going to be the 'port everything' strategy that people have been speculating about. However, while porting a brand new Halo to PS5 within a year of release would be foolish, what about something like the Master Chief Collection? That game has feasibly done all it can to sell consoles and gamepasses, why not release on other consoles with crossplay to earn a quick buck and re-invigorate a great franchise at a current historic low? Then come next gen they can say 'Halo is BACK folks, buy our new console for the Master Chief's next adventure.' I don't think many people would grumble at that TBH.

If I had to design a third party publishing strategy for Microsoft, then I would make their outright first party studio games properly exclusive - with some maybe being ported at an indetermined point in the future on a case by case basis if it made sense (Hi-Fi Rush on Switch 2 makes sense for instance) - and make all Bethesda and non-COD Acti-Blizz games timed exclusives for a year or so. Then focus on making your consoles as cheap as possible so people don't have the dilemma of buying a $500 console where a good number of exclusives will end up going to the other $500 console.

As for Gamepass, whooooo boy, I don't envy them having to battle out of that corner they've backed themselves in. I don't see any alternative but for them to raise the price TBH.
 
Galgavias said:
I agree that they would have to keep some games exclusive to Xbox if they have any intention of staying in the console market. That's why I'm sceptical that this is going to be the 'port everything' strategy that people have been speculating about. However, while porting a brand new Halo to PS5 within a year of release would be foolish, what about something like the Master Chief Collection? That game has feasibly done all it can to sell consoles and gamepasses, why not release on other consoles with crossplay to earn a quick buck and re-invigorate a great franchise at a current historic low? Then come next gen they can say 'Halo is BACK folks, buy our new console for the Master Chief's next adventure.' I don't think many people would grumble at that TBH.

If I had to design a third party publishing strategy for Microsoft, then I would make their outright first party studio games properly exclusive - with some maybe being ported at an indetermined point in the future on a case by case basis if it made sense (Hi-Fi Rush on Switch 2 makes sense for instance) - and make all Bethesda and non-COD Acti-Blizz games timed exclusives for a year or so. Then focus on making your consoles as cheap as possible so people don't have the dilemma of buying a $500 console where a good number of exclusives will end up going to the other $500 console.

As for Gamepass, whooooo boy, I don't envy them having to battle out of that corner they've backed themselves in. I don't see any alternative but for them to raise the price TBH.
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I kind of get that and it's kind of the route Sony seems to be going with with Spider-Man, TLOU, and God of War and it's working wonders for them... but Xbox games come day and date with PC. It's still competing against itself.

Agreed 100% on GP
 
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HockeyBird said:
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tenor.gif
 
Considering the reaction of some people talking about selling their Xboxes or whatever... back in 2000/2001 I didn't understand how there were people considering themselves Xbox fans when there was nothing but tech demos to even base it on. And now I don't understand what these people were fans of, if the rumors make them abandon Xbox.
 
tbh the problem with Rare is that they don't even have much in terms of new games to really port over. With Everwild languishing in development hell, all they really have right now is Sea of Thieves, which funny enough is one of the most heavily rumored multiplatform games.

As mentioned five billion times by now, Rare Replay isn't feasible to bring over due to how much of it relies on special Xbox 360 emulation. While we're at it, I also kinda doubt they're gonna do ports for their 360 era stuff, didn't even bother doing so for PC.

At least there's still NSO for their older stuff.
 
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JoshuaJSlone said:
Considering the reaction of some people talking about selling their Xboxes or whatever... back in 2000/2001 I didn't understand how there were people considering themselves Xbox fans when there was nothing but tech demos to even base it on. And now I don't understand what these people were fans of, if the rumors make them abandon Xbox.
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They were mislead Nintendo fans, which are now finally returning to their home.
 
I don't know how commercially viable new Rare games and remakes would be on Nintendo's platforms nowadays. But what I do know is that I'd buy the hell out of all of them.
 
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to be fair, Viva Piñata has a pretty decent chance at popping off if it was put in front of the Switch or Steam audiences imo

it'd require them to, you know, actually make a version that would work on those platforms tho
 
Darknut85 said:
That is a non zero chance.
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I could totally see Rare Replay getting a Switch 2 port.

Can we talk about what a shitshow Conker Live and Reloaded was?

Also, Microsoft has quite a back catalog that they could try and breathe new life into at this point.
 
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