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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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Dark Cloud said:
He expects spring to fall. Everyone is 2024
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That's the universal trend with all predictions. Some of us are weeks away, some are a few months, but most of us keeping track of the story are aware of when it'll happen. This year. We're fine with waiting, the end is in sight.

The general launch expectations range over 6 months though, so it's not like anyone has a for-sure clue except maybe, like, insiders on Wall-Street, Nintendo execs and savants.
 
Bonejack said:
Look, i have no idea about Nintendo's plans, nor am i a leaker or something similar, but there's one thing i'm very certain about ... you will get a OLED Drake.

Just not at launch.
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By time we get to that point, I'd probably expect MicroLED.
 
Bonejack said:
Dunno, could they -> easily <- switch around release timeframes like that? Basing the decision on holiday sales sounds really short-notice.
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Based on what we've heard from investor behaviour, they're betting Nintendo went for Spring/Summer.
 
pelusilla6 said:
Some OLED gaming laptops are getting announced this week

Do you still think that those are included in the IT segment from Samsung? @Thraktor

Im still praying for an OLED Drake hehe
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Yeah, IT seems to cover monitors, laptops and tablets for them, so that should include gaming laptops. All previous references to gaming in their outlooks seem to have been references to Switch OLED, so I expect this is also a reference to a dedicated gaming device.
 
BingBong43 said:
But that's not what I'm suggesting happened at all. I'm saying that merging their handheld and console divisions in 2013 to create a singular pipeline of game development means that the likelihood that a significantly more powerful device on the horizon would force them to re divide their development teams between two devices simply makes no economic, business, or practical sense whatsoever.
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But... that's every transition. One thing fades out while another fades in. It's not a re-splitting like their old portable and home divisions used to be. Sony transitioning from PS2 to PS3 is not the same thing as Nintendo supporting DS and Wii at the same time.
Instead of Nintendo in ~2019 going "hey everyone let's move on to the next generation even though our current console is selling like hotcakes. I know we merged all of our teams only 6 years ago but let's split things up again and some of y'all work on 2D Mario, Pikmin 4, and TotK while the rest move on to Switch 2. We've learned nothing from the past with this not working out for maintaining a steady software pipeline and instead we're going to have a big gap between the two devices so that the Switch 2 launch games can really impress diehard Nintendo fans"
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I don't know why your thinking is so binary, man. There are multitudes of options between "Nobody start using the machine's exclusive features for several years" and "everyone move over before our current system has peaked". Some move on sooner than others. Just like with every transition.
No, that's not true. They said Switch 1 would get their focus through March 2024 and would still get support at least through March 2025.
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If there's a quote there that's more explicit than talking about fiscal years, it's behind the portion one has to be registered to see.
Bonejack said:
Also, i hope you folks don't expect ReDraketed announcement in a Direct. Big announcements like a new console will have their own schedule.
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I don't want to say this is WRONG, but in the ~12 years Directs have been around they've only announced one new platform, so I wouldn't be very confident reading patterns into it.
 
Re: Emily Rodgers and the Switch reveal - I don't know if anyone remembers, but there was a lot of smoke during September 2016. It was actually revealed by one of the interviewed cast called actors that they were originally called for September, but got delayed for October.
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Bonejack said:
Dunno, could they -> easily <- switch around release timeframes like that? Basing the decision on holiday sales sounds really short-notice.
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I don’t think so, no. Because of mass manufacturing.
 
Bonejack said:
Dunno, could they -> easily <- switch around release timeframes like that? Basing the decision on holiday sales sounds really short-notice.
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Fast forwarding is likely impossible, save for doing a paper launch, but both 3DS and Switch were delayed. At worse, they will have to pay warehouses to keep them for a few months.

Nintendo forecasted a 3 mi decline despite having a strong Q1 and doubled down after remaining sightly up YoY. So they were expecting their worse H2 by a good margin (their worse H2 was over 10 mi, pushing them into 17 mi total).

With that said, I really doubt they would delay it for a couple months based on holidays sales being stronger than expected.
 
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Hmm the CNBC article does state something a little bit interesting imo...

For Atul Goyal, managing director at Jefferies, the timings of the launch will depend on recent sales. If the Switch remained popular in the holiday quarter then Nintendo could push a new console out to the Fall of this year, Goyal said. If Switch sales dropped in the December quarter, the new device could come as early as Spring or Summer, he added.
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Switcharoo said:
Hmm the CNBC article does state something a little bit interesting imo...
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They are analysts though. They can miss the mark, often as badly as swinging a bat at a side of the barn and missing.

I don't think they're going to just whimsically change things around in that way.
 
If margins for the Switch 2 are equal or more tighter than the OLED model, I’m not seeing Nintendo incurring in warehouse costs for the sake of delaying a launch
 
They could certainly delay it to Fall if they originally planned a Spring/Summer release, but I doubt they would (or could) do the reverse even if the holidays were worse than expected. If it launches before November, that's because it was always the plan, not because Q3 made them antsy for some reason.
 
OctoSplattack said:
They could certainly delay it to Fall if they originally planned a Spring/Summer release, but I doubt they would (or could) do the reverse even if the holidays were worse than expected. If it launches before November, that's because it was always the plan, not because Q3 made them antsy for some reason.
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It's hard to even imagine what their thought process would be. "Oh god, Christmas wasn't what we wanted! This means the start of the 8th year of our system, during the slower quarters of the year, will be slightly smaller than the small we already thought! Pull the emergency lever!"
 
Dark Cloud said:
That makes little sense. I give little care to what analysts think. I wish I got paid to say anything that can be wrong
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I don't think that makes little sense since Nintendo is almost done with things to start mass assembly
Even March being our "endgame", nothing prevents Nintendo to simply market the thing starting February seeing to launch in late May / June
 
Truno said:
I don't agree with the original poster's point, however, is it really that surprising that someone would doubt Nintendo's capabilities with hardware? They've publicly spoken about how difficult it was for them to adapt to newer technologies, I expect that we might see something similar this time around.
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Nintendo is much well prepared now, compared when they trasistion it development pipeline for Wii to Wii U, i dont believe Nintendo will suffer now with full HD development(despite working on a much better/stronger hardware, Nintendo will still keep this constant release of good games on it next hardware)
 
necrolipe said:
I don't think that makes little sense since Nintendo is almost done with things to start mass assembly
Even March being our "endgame", nothing prevents Nintendo to simply market the thing starting February seeing to launch in late May / June
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You think if sales dropped in December that will cause Nintendo to release it earlier because that’s the part of the quote I’m talking about.
 
necrolipe said:
I don't think that makes little sense since Nintendo is almost done with things to start mass assembly
Even March being our "endgame", nothing prevents Nintendo to simply market the thing starting February seeing to launch in late May / June
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so theres a possibility of Nintendo knowledging it next console on the next fiscal report(february 6th)?
 
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Dark Cloud said:
You think if sales dropped in December that will cause Nintendo to release it earlier because that’s the part of the quote I’m talking about.
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I see Furukawa as a business man more than any earlier Nintendo CEO so, if they want to calm down shareholders... why not?
Giancarlo said:
so theres a possibility of Nintendo knowledging it next console on the next fiscal report(february 8th)?
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Now that Holidays gone, they can do it yes
 
I agree the Switch 2 can come early. I don’t agree because of December sales Nintendo will push forward the release. Because now what did you do to all those third party devs who are making games to launch later in the year?? You just messed them over.
 
The idea that Nintendo could push production ahead or back is laughable. That shit is booked months if not years in advance. And what would be the point of paying for more warehouse space now as opposed to just getting the profit from a new system now.
If their time table changes its because something is forcing their hand. Not because they sold a couple million more/less systems last month.
 
Shubshub said:
For the record I am saying the Switch 2 will fall between a PS4 Pro and Xbox Series S
Anything less risks losing long term third party support before they're ready (Even more so once Playstation 6 and Xbox Series Y/Z rolls around)
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I hope you are right my friend. In response to another one of your posts: I do not think the pro models hurt the Switch 2 much at all. Those machines are never targeted and will only add up to a tiny fraction of the PS5 install base/XboxS base. Nintendo shouldn't look any further than the base consoles as a reference.

The safest bet for me is a base PS4 with more advanced hardware and rendering capabilities.

If it lands between PS4P and the Series S, that's a massive win for a device like this, even if it's waaaaayyy closer to PS4P on that spectrum.

Side Question: how much more powerful is the Switch compared to the PS360? I think if Switch 2 is that next to the PS4/XB1, we're eating good.
 
MadMarvainy said:
Side Question: how much more powerful is the Switch compared to the PS360? I think if Switch 2 is that next to the PS4/XB1, we're eating good.
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a great deal more powerful. it's definitely one of those cases where finding pc equivalent benchmarks aren't going to be representative because of how different architectures and rendering have changed since the 360/ps3 days
 
necrolipe said:
I see Furukawa as a business man more than any earlier Nintendo CEO so, if they want to calm down shareholders... why not?

Now that Holidays gone, they can do it yes
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They threw us a bone with the Zelda movie. And not any sort of movie, but also a live action one, and in the same year the Mario Movie debuted, and with flying colors. They tamed investors’ buzz with the Zelda movie. Next that could come is Switch 2 aknowledgement
 
MadMarvainy said:
I hope you are right my friend. In response to another one of your posts: I do not think the pro models hurt the Switch 2 much at all. Those machines are never targeted and will only add up to a tiny fraction of the PS5 install base/XboxS base. Nintendo shouldn't look any further than the base consoles as a reference.

The safest bet for me is a base PS4 with more advanced hardware and rendering capabilities.

If it lands between PS4P and the Series S, that's a massive win for a device like this, even if it's waaaaayyy closer to PS4P on that spectrum.

Side Question: how much more powerful is the Switch compared to the PS360? I think if Switch 2 is that next to the PS4/XB1, we're eating good.
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As long as the cpu is as good or a little bit better than the one in the steam deck we are good. And high speed storage is also a must.
 
ILikeFeet said:
a great deal more powerful. it's definitely one of those cases where finding pc equivalent benchmarks aren't going to be representative because of how different architectures and rendering have changed since the 360/ps3 days
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I figured because Wii U was already more powerful than those consoles and the Switch has the up on Wii U. So real-world comparisons are tricky.

The closer we get to the reveal, the more and more I believe people will be satisfied with what the machine will be able to do at its price, form factor, and W.
 
MadMarvainy said:
The closer we get to the reveal, the more and more I believe people will be satisfied with what the machine will be able to do at its price and form factor.
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on this internet? lol

Dark Cloud said:
Is it going to be like a PS4 pro similarish?
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theoretically, still under, but practically, I expect it to be better. mainly due to features and the fact that most Drake games will be rendering a lower internal resolution than PS4 Pro before checkerboarding
 
Dark Cloud said:
Is it going to be like a PS4 pro similarish?
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Handheld mode won't be PS4 Pro, but it should get pretty close to PS4 Pro quality effects and geometry in docked. Not 100% sure on resolution tho bc if they crank up stuff like raytracing they ain't hitting 4k, maybe not even 1440p.
 
Console releases aren’t based on predecessor sales months out from the planned launch. They’re based on production pipelines and software scheduling.

The release of software will be carefully plotted out to ensure momentum, as was successfully gained with the Switch. Console launch games especially are kept in the oven until the last possible moment. You can’t just decide to release earlier because you think predecessor sales are dropping off.
 
ILikeFeet said:
on this internet? lol
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Lol, people will find issues, and I am sure not all of Nintendo's solutions will be perfect.

But I am not sure what people would expect from what will be an affordable $400ish mass-market hybrid console that will run on a low-wattage.

I checked the most popular games in the world on consoles right now, and all of it is stuff Switch 2 should have no problem running lol.
 
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carbvan said:
Handheld mode won't be PS4 Pro, but it should get pretty close to PS4 Pro quality effects and geometry in docked. Not 100% sure on resolution tho bc if they crank up stuff like raytracing they ain't hitting 4k, maybe not even 1440p.
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I'd rail against this. Handheld mode won't be PS4 Pro in PURE COMPUTE, but it should absolutely achieve higher fidelity, just at a lower resolution.

PS4 Pro was held back by the fact it was still a PS4 at the end of the day and all PS4 Pro games had to have PS4 versions, so you could only do so much on PS4 Pro, namely, increase the resolution. Let's not get it twisted, PS4 Pro was incredibly impressive in what it could output, especially for the price, but NG Switch is literally generations ahead of it architecturally and in terms of features.
 
YolkFolk said:
Console releases aren’t based on predecessor sales months out from the planned launch. They’re based on production pipelines and software scheduling.

The release of software will be carefully plotted out to ensure momentum, as was successfully gained with the Switch. Console launch games especially are kept in the oven until the last possible moment. You can’t just decide to release earlier because you think predecessor sales are dropping off.
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Exactly. The Switch is the best example. If it were due to Wii U sales, Nintendo pretty much must have had a clear picture that the console wouldn’t sell much after a few years
 
Concernt said:
I'd rail against this. Handheld mode won't be PS4 Pro in PURE COMPUTE, but it should absolutely achieve higher fidelity, just at a lower resolution.

PS4 Pro was held back by the fact it was still a PS4 at the end of the day and all PS4 Pro games had to have PS4 versions, so you could only do so much on PS4 Pro, namely, increase the resolution. Let's not get it twisted, PS4 Pro was incredibly impressive in what it could output, especially for the price, but NG Switch is literally generations ahead of it architecturally and in terms of features.
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Yup, like the CPU for starters.
 


Starting in a few minutes! Not that there will be anything Switch 2 related we could gleam from it, right? Right?




Re: the whole conversation of Switch 2 games being more Switch 1 upressed games verse ground up Switch 2 developed exclusives... Whynotboth.gif

I think we'll see 3 types of game releases post Switch 2 launch:
  1. Game dev begins targeting Switch 1, near end of development forked into Switch1/Switch2 versions (the amount of effort put into that Switch 2 version will determine how much it takes advantage of the new console, with a range of possibilities being possible, perhaps even giving Switch 2 a later release date to give it more time to cook)
  2. Game dev beings targeting Switch 2, near end of development forked into Switch1/Switch2 versions (They'll do their best to get it working on Switch1, may fail and keep it exclusive, or may not care that it drops frames at 540p because it just makes Switch2 look all the more inciting)
  3. SWITCH 2 EXCLUSIVE BABY
 
While waiting I picked up the steam deck oled and its pretty great, good holdover for anyone waiting for switch 2 I highly recommend it
 
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Bonejack said:
Hello, i'm back. That also means i'm sadly back at work.

Is there a reason this thread grew about nth more pages since the friday before christmas?
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From what I can tell, some arguing and vibes. Otherwise, it's business as usual.
 
AceBandage said:
The idea that Nintendo could push production ahead or back is laughable. That shit is booked months if not years in advance. And what would be the point of paying for more warehouse space now as opposed to just getting the profit from a new system now.
If their time table changes its because something is forcing their hand. Not because they sold a couple million more/less systems last month.
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Personally I have nothing against the idea that poor sales could force them to show their hand a little bit in advance (best proof of this is that the main reason why the successor did not come earlier is certainly that the switch was giving satisfaction in terms of revenue). We are talking a few weeks at most.
Where I think this is laughable (if I can borrow your terminology) is that it comes from financial analysts, most of whom understand very little, have no inside connection (that would be illegal), and are not covering just one company. On top of that, they are much less knowledgeable than the heads of this forum (and I am sure they do not read it..) in terms of technique or what the supply chain looks like. I think I ve said this, so sorry for repeating: they are glorified journalists with an understanding of financial statements and basic knowledge of the economy. In their operating model, the global gdp forecast their macroeconomist colleagues give them has at least as much weight as the launch of a new console with a vague launch date. I really think whatever they say can be ignored by the more informed people, Emily Roberts :D and co.
 
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casualreader said:
They make a s load of money that is true, and I would have agreed when Pokémon was close to being the best seller on Nintendo systems. But seeing how beautiful, polished games sold on switch, there was room for Pokémon to go over 50 mln units sold, if only they had waited for a bit longer (I think another year would have gone a long way for SV), and they could have filled with a spin off, just a matter of org. Arceus was great, and could have been that title, but difficult to reach that status for a new title. I have hope for the future, because fans have never been that vocal and, again, there is a way they get a return on investment.
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Pokemon in it's absolute Prime did 31 million units. There is no reason to believe a franchise like Pokemon ever had a shot of going over 50 million on Switch. Literally none. They can wait forever they wont hit that number.
 
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