In this calm period before the holidays and new year, I thought I'd post my thoughts/predictions on the how and when Nintendo's next gen heavy hitters might launch over its lifespan. This was less of a wishlist and more of a puzzle game. Given what Nintendo's big teams have last worked on and when they released, what would the tentpole titles be each year? How will they space them out?
Regardless, I don't think we'll see a repeat of the Switch's first 2 years (nearly every major franchise within the first calendar year, followed by a lighter year 2 capped off by Smash and Mario Party). I simply don't think the teams have the marquee titles ready to go year 1 or even 2 for that matter. What this means is that we'll get a more "normal" software cadence with 1-2, maybe 3, tentpole titles per year instead of the front-loaded Switch first year.
All titles are exclusive unless stated otherwise or releasing before Switch 2.
2024: Launch year
- Donkey Kong - Summer (leading up to launch)
- Mario Baseball - Summer (leading up to launch)
- 3D Mario - launch day
- New Casual IP - launch day
- Metroid Prime 4 - launch window (before 2025)
- Pokemon Legends 2 - November
- cross gen Fire Emblem 4 Echoes - December
2025: The First "Full" Year
- New non-Casual IP (a la ARMS, Splatoon, etc.) - Spring, before the FY end
- 3D Kirby - Spring
- Mario Party - late Spring
- Zelda Remake - Summer
- new Monolithsoft IP - Summer
- Astral Chain 2 - late Summer
- 2D Metroid - Fall
- Luigi's Mansion 4 - Fall
- Ring Fit Adventure 2 - Fall
- Mario Kart 10 - holiday
- Pokemon remake - November (interchangeable with PL2)
2026: Most of the Rest + Switch 2 lite
- A Mario RPG - Winter (could be Dec '25 as well)
- Switch 2 Sports - Spring
- Fire Emblem - Spring
- Splatoon 4 - Summer
- Animal Crossing - September, alongside NS2 lite
- Warioware - Fall
- Bayonetta 4 - Fall
- Pokemon Gen 10 - November
- Super Smash Bros. 7 - December
2027: Whatever's Left
- Pikmin 5 - Spring
- Princess Peach - Spring
- Paper Mario - Summer
- Return of an IP (StarFox, Kid Icarus?) - Summer
- Metroid Prime 5 - Early Fall
- 2D Mario - October
- Pokemon G10 DLC - holiday
- Zelda - December or possibly delayed to H1 '25 (conflicted on this one)
2028: I don't really have an interesting title. But it will be the next iterations in franchises that had late Switch releases
- Donkey Kong
- F Zero
- New IP
- Sequels
- Pokemon Legends 3 or remake - November
"Other" - for titles I wasn't sure where and when to fit in
- Yoshi - I think some kind of Yoshi title is likely in 2024/2025, given it'll have been 5+ years since CW in 2019. Not sure on the developer or the style of gameplay (3D?).
- Xenoblade X Remakester - I could see this coming in 2024 in late Summer before the new MS IP in 2025, but I'm not sure if it would be on Switch as well or next gen only. It has been 2 years since XB3 and MS tends to put something out at least every other year.
I admit that MP5 and Zelda in late 2027 is pushing it, but we've been told TOTK was done almost a whole year before it released (had a year of polish) and that MP4 has supposedly been done (held for the same reasons + cross gen). 5 years on from late 2022 (TOTK was likely content complete) and 4 years on from late 2023 I think is enough time for the follow up titles for these series, barring another pandemic or global crisis. But honestly, either of the two titles could very easily slip into March of the next year before the FY ends.
In the end, I think Nintendo's aim will be to get out nearly every "major" franchise out by the 3rd year of the Switch to continue to build its momentum and to avoid a year 2 like Switch's 2018. Some titles will likely be delayed to 2028, but they will shoot for the 4th year worst case, as that is typically the peak year of most consoles.