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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Not sure what his reasons was for dismissing Samsung 5nm, but do we have nvidia products that used Samsung 5nm process node?

I know Samsung SEC8N and TSMC 4N are the prominent choices. But are there other process nodes being used for the nvidia products manufactured in the last couple of years?
There is actually one ampere enterprise card on TSMC 7nm.
 
Ah interesting. Curious how that would compare with SEC8N. Was TSMC 7nm something that was considered/discussed here before?

Would 12 SMs still make sense on TSMC 7nm instead of 5nm, or is it still pretty infeasible?
For sure TSMC 7nm would be 100% better than shit samsung foundry 8nm
 
Ah interesting. Curious how that would compare with SEC8N. Was TSMC 7nm something that was considered/discussed here before?

Would 12 SMs still make sense on TSMC 7nm instead of 5nm, or is it still pretty infeasible?
@GrandDemand outlined a while back that GA100 being very distinct in GPU IP vs the rest of GA10X made TSMC 7nm less likely of a candidate to being ported over than TSMC 4N for that reason, especially as Drake/Lovelace would've been codeveloped simultaneously (ergo offsetting R&D cost)
 
Couple things, why are you completely dismissing Samsung 5nm? Not saying it's likely, or ideal, but certainly possible unless I am missing something. It makes more sense than 8nm, it's just not as good as 4N.

N64 was actually very capable, and programmers have actually been able to recompile Mario 64 to be a 60fps game on native hardware. Developers just didn't have the experience at that point to really squeeze efficiently with the N64 hardware.

Because there are zero reasons Nvidia would have a process purchased just for Nintendo. They like to consolidate where possible.
 
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Xbox doing a weird semi proprietary thing makes it not the best comparison, since competition is only barely extant, and I don't think we know whether or not MS is taking a cut.

It seems odd to me to just assume that literally every CFe manufacturer would hold the line and refuse to compete on price at all. Competition is far from a perfect price control mechanism, but to assume none would even introduce a cheaper line seems quite extreme.
It’s not odd to assume a corporation wouldn’t engage in more work to make the same amount of money. And note that I didn’t suggest that CFe couldn’t be cheaper when produced in volume, my point was that price reduction would never reach the point of being an acceptable price without an over-inflated margin as was originally suggested.
 
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What if Nintendo is planning to do a pro style system this gen and will put the 8nm version out first and then 2-3 years from launch release the 4nm version with the lite and Switch 2 Pro OLED? The research on the improved cooling system could make 8nm good enough to reach their performance targets in the meantime, and then allow the 4nm to really sing when it eventually comes out. If they come out with 4nm version I assumed, they likely wouldn't need to do a Switch Pro because of node advancements not being so great. I prefer 4nm now and only, but 8nm and then 4nm upgrade makes sense to me as well, but I don't know if going from Samsung to TSMC will make things difficult. We shall see.
If Nintendo were to release 4N first (which is really a 5nm node), I can see them releasing a 3nm V2 switch 2 a few years later, possibly a lite version if they don't increase the clocks with a 3nm V2 model. This can be a potential 30% to 35% in power efficiency for shrinking switch 2 in future years
 
If we end up getting something the size of the ROG Ally due to 8nm, I think I’m ok with that. Not that big of a jump size wise and much more practical than the steam deck.

Steam deck is IMO way over-engineered. It should’ve been the size of the ally with the OLED screen to start.
 
If we end up getting something the size of the ROG Ally due to 8nm, I think I’m ok with that. Not that big of a jump size wise and much more practical than the steam deck.

Steam deck is IMO way over-engineered. It should’ve been the size of the ally with the OLED screen to start.

You might be okay with it, but it'd probably destroy Nintendo's domestic market in Japan. They love their portables.
 
I’d understand that argument if it were just an increase in screen size, but not if it’s 1080p. A 2.25 times increase in pixel count means that you need more power, thus higher clocks, thus a higher TDP, to get an acceptable image. If the increase in screen size was just to accommodate larger internals, then surely they’d want to have a lower-resolution screen to take a significant load off of the GPU.

DLSS will cover this outside of 2D games. That does have a cost, but often not as much as traditional resolution increases.
 
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The Lite didn’t have much demand because it was a poor proposition compared to the base model & OLED. Making it a true portable does little to address those deficiencies when consumers are deciding on a product. Reducing the size further + comprising even more on ergonomics means it could find less of a consumer base then before.
The issue is that the Lite doesn't offer anything much above a standard Switch, even in terms of size it is still too big when compared to old portables like DS and 3DS.
Increasing the Gap between Lite and Standard would perhaps bring greater appeal, Nintendo already has some ideas on how to further miniaturize a lite, such as the in-line shoulder buttons that came out in some patents, so apparently they are working on that.
 
What are your thoughts on a VRR capable screen? Those type of displays provide a smoother playing experience and the ROG Ally takes advantage of this feature.
My thoughts? They want to keep parity between handheld and TV mode as much as possible other than resolution, and the reality is few TVs even now support VRR, so I doubt they'd expend any extra expense to get it. If it comes at no additional cost for them, however, then yeah, I could see them use it.

Personally, I'm ambivalent about it.
 
The issue is that the Lite doesn't offer anything much above a standard Switch, even in terms of size it is still too big when compared to old portables like DS and 3DS.
Increasing the Gap between Lite and Standard would perhaps bring greater appeal, Nintendo already has some ideas on how to further miniaturize a lite, such as the in-line shoulder buttons that came out in some patents, so apparently they are working on that.
With Next Gen apparently getting a lot bigger, but likely not the SOC, I could definitely see the next gen Lite, die shrink or not, be a LOT smaller. In-line shoulder buttons, stacked SOC and heat sink, circle pads, and you've already cut out an awful lot of internal space. On 4NM, T239 is already smaller than Lite's Mariko, so Next Gen Lite could not only come earlier in the generation, but be much smaller.

However, is this is the approach they take, then I expect them to continue to exclude their Lite or Mini line from TV output. Not only to reduce internal complexity some, not only to carve out a place in the market for their bigger brothers with docks, but because a smaller case, a smaller heat sink, a smaller fan; a NG Switch Micro may not be CAPABLE of cooling itself in TV Mode. Unless they limit the NG Lite's TV mode to 1080p, but, that's another can of worms.
 
If Nintendo were to release 4N first (which is really a 5nm node), I can see them releasing a 3nm V2 switch 2 a few years later, possibly a lite version if they don't increase the clocks with a 3nm V2 model. This can be a potential 30% to 35% in power efficiency for shrinking switch 2 in future years
TSMC N3 is around ~10% at best better in performance/energy-savings over N4P. The 30% improvement is compared to N5 first generation. N3 is totally not worth at all for Nintendo and unfeasible to be used as a node for a shrink due to insanely high costs. If Nintendo uses 4N for T239, they will stay with 4N for the entirety of the generation. There's no viable path for a die shrink (And die-shrinks without IP compatible nodes are a thing of the past in current and future consoles)
 
The issue is that the Lite doesn't offer anything much above a standard Switch, even in terms of size it is still too big when compared to old portables like DS and 3DS.
Increasing the Gap between Lite and Standard would perhaps bring greater appeal, Nintendo already has some ideas on how to further miniaturize a lite, such as the in-line shoulder buttons that came out in some patents, so apparently they are working on that.
Increasing the gap between the two models does little to address its appeal. As long as it cannot do what the standard model, or even the premium model, does it will continue to struggle when compared to those two. We see this in weekly JP sales & all the patterns that have formed since launch.

Making itself smaller does little in the way of addressing those core problems due to the type of product it is.
 
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The Lite's sole purpose was to increase the number of Switches per household, and act as a hookup to the Switch family of system. There are households with more than one Switch (OG and Lite), and there were households that didn't have one, and due to the Lite's competitive pricing, they got one, and maybe along the road, got the fuller experience: either OG or OLED Switch.

With the Switch 2 getting bigger (both in size and price), the Lite 2 would be more than a brilliant idea.
 
The Lite's sole purpose was to increase the number of Switches per household, and act as a hookup to the Switch family of system. There are households with more than one Switch (OG and Lite), and there were households that didn't have one, and due to the Lite's competitive pricing, they got one, and maybe along the road, got the fuller experience: either OG or OLED Switch.

With the Switch 2 getting bigger (both in size and price), the Lite 2 would be more than a brilliant idea.

We'll have to see if it's even literally possible to make a much smaller Switch 2 though.

If the Switch 2 is slightly bigger than the Steam Deck and the Lite 2 is slightly smaller than a Steam Deck... Is that very appealing as a product?
 
We'll have to see if it's even literally possible to make a much smaller Switch 2 though.

If the Switch 2 is slightly bigger than the Steam Deck and the Lite 2 is slightly smaller than a Steam Deck... Is that very appealing as a product?
If T239 is fabbed on 4N, I don't see the issue. There's a lot of room for making the device package smaller once your device doesn't need to Dock or have integrated controller within the body. Battery can be smaller, Heatpipe and fan can be smaller sized, smaller screen, etc.
 
Is there any difference in how someone would transport a Switch vs a larger handheld like the Steam Deck?
Anecdotal but for me, yeah. My Switch in its case currently fits in my pocket. Barely, but it does. Something with as much of a size difference as the Steam Deck means I'd need to carry it like a clutch or get a messenger bag to put it in.
 
If the next system was put into an original dock (non-OLED), could it force the system to output 1080p, or would it be completely unreadable to the dock? If there is a second SKU, I could see it being just the system without the dock for people who want to transition at a cheaper price. Something like this:

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Dragon's Dogma 2 calls for a GTX 1070/Ryzen 5 3600 for 1080p/30 FPS.

That GPU teraflop requirement will not be too hard to hit (as long as Nintendo convinces Capcom to include TAA). The RAM Bandwidth may be more difficult and the CPU requirement is a bit more daunting.

Also, Capcom has RT as completely optional still.

The 1070 means that Capcom has also not moved over to exclusively mesh shaders despite cutting off last gen support. (Same for Ubisoft)
 
That wouldn't be a Lite, that'd just be a normal Switch.

If the current Switch Lite had tv out you think it would be the same device as a normal Switch?

I personally think it would be a great feature for a Lite model to have.

When the Lite was revealed a lot of people considered the lack of tv out as a feature which would stop them buying it despite preferring the smaller hardware.
 
Couple things, why are you completely dismissing Samsung 5nm? Not saying it's likely, or ideal, but certainly possible unless I am missing something. It makes more sense than 8nm, it's just not as good as 4N.

N64 was actually very capable, and programmers have actually been able to recompile Mario 64 to be a 60fps game on native hardware. Developers just didn't have the experience at that point to really squeeze efficiently with the N64 hardware.

I’m not actually completely dismissing it at all, though admittedly my wording may give that impression. I think it ultimately has to be discussed given Nvidia having a history with Samsung. As mentioned, I think it’s still unlikely, especially after what others here have talked previously regarding yield rates and such. But that doesn’t discount it completely either. We’ve also talked previously that maybe if Samsung were desperate for someone to use their 5nm process, and were going to give Nintendo/Nvidia a very good deal, it could still be possible.

Won’t be as efficient, but has Nintendo ever gone with the most efficient nodes in their chips?

As far as your other question, someone else brought up concerning microcode, which wasn’t made available to most developers outside of Nintendo until much later. Gunpei himself even admitted that the system was meant for peak performance rather than sustained performance.

That does not imply the N64 cannot do sustainable performance as you mentioned though. Kaze Emanuar worked wonders in getting Mario 64 to work at 3x the frame rate, something that most would consider to be impossible. And then you have James Lambert who recently got Portal to run on native hardware, plus his work in getting megatextures to work.

Like you said, developers and other programmers are finding new and creative solutions to work around limitations.

How this ties into Switch 2 is I think Nintendo, like what they did for Switch 1, is lay on the side of caution, and provide an experience that relies more on sustainable performance over the long term, which falls right in line with what Gunpei said about the N64. Whether or not the GCN, Wii, or Wii U truly followed that though is a different discussion, though could be talked about later on.

I just think we can find many clues into Nintendo’s plans just by reading what they’ve talked about over the last 30 years. We can find a similar realm of thinking with Nintendo’s philosophy of withered technology with lateral thinking. That, and withered (or weathered could be another term) being abundant, well understood, and cheap.

So I guess following that own logic, what chip node process follows those three things? Does TSMC 4N follow that? How about Samsung 5nm? Or TSMC 7N? There are a few possibilities here.
 
If the current Switch Lite had tv out you think it would be the same device as a normal Switch?

I personally think it would be a great feature for a Lite model to have.

When the Lite was revealed a lot of people considered the lack of tv out as a feature which would stop them buying it despite preferring the smaller hardware.
To add to your point, Jon from Spawn Wave uploaded a video last year talking about how some of his family members thought the Nintendo Switch Lite has the ability to connect to the dock to access TV mode since "Switch" is in the name. But his family members still didn't understand when Jon explained that the Nintendo Switch Lite can't connect to the dock to access TV mode.
 
If the current Switch Lite had tv out you think it would be the same device as a normal Switch?

I personally think it would be a great feature for a Lite model to have.

When the Lite was revealed a lot of people considered the lack of tv out as a feature which would stop them buying it despite preferring the smaller hardware.
I just don't know if this would really be a Lite model, this would be like a Lite and a Half wouldn't it? It'd have to cost more than the typical Lite because it needs the hardware to be able to output to TV,and it would need to be bigger to be able to house those parts. So unless they're getting rid of the portable only Lite, this would be a 4th SKU and I don't see that happening.
 
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Anecdotal but for me, yeah. My Switch in its case currently fits in my pocket. Barely, but it does. Something with as much of a size difference as the Steam Deck means I'd need to carry it like a clutch or get a messenger bag to put it in.
Yeah, and when the console is as big as a clutch, it doesn't fit in a clutch. Nintendo Switch - OLED Model teeters on the edge of not fitting. A 7.91" display will definitely make it poke out, but Steam Deck size is just not doable.

Portability still matters. If it can't fit in my handbag, it's just not portable.

Given our many other reasons to believe it will be 4nm, I'm expecting it to be the same thickness as the current Switch (which also has a bunch of OTHER reasons as to why that makes sense.).
 
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mesh shader support is to happen in the future, not immediately

and there's not much we can glean from system requirements, as we've seen many times already

It does at least show it will be a non trivial port that will require moving some CPU functions to the GPU and lowering some visual settings below the PC minimum.
 
If the next system was put into an original dock (non-OLED), could it force the system to output 1080p, or would it be completely unreadable to the dock? If there is a second SKU, I could see it being just the system without the dock for people who want to transition at a cheaper price. Something like this:
If it physically fits, and new docked mode doesn't use a ton more power, that should be feasible. The dock is pretty dumb, it's the Switch hardware itself that would have to recognize and know what to do with the dock.
 
It does at least show it will be a non trivial port that will require moving some CPU functions to the GPU and lowering some visual settings below the PC minimum.
you don't know this. the game isn't even out yet, minimum requirements have repeatedly shown to not be an accurate reflection of low requirements. this is just hardware they bothered to test
 
you don't know this. the game isn't even out yet, minimum requirements have repeatedly shown to not be an accurate reflection of low requirements. this is just hardware they bothered to test

“30 FPS with drops during spells” does not suggest they can go much lower at 1080p than a 1070, lol.

Unless they’re hitting 40-45 FPS and the spells just kill the framerate down to 20 and they’re calling it 30 FPS as a rough summary.

CPU, maybe? But I would think they would test a 1600.
 
If the current Switch Lite had tv out you think it would be the same device as a normal Switch?

I personally think it would be a great feature for a Lite model to have.

When the Lite was revealed a lot of people considered the lack of tv out as a feature which would stop them buying it despite preferring the smaller hardware.
It's complicated. Lite is a damaged goods device that needs to hit a minimum price point so that Nintendo has an option for lower-income buyers and kids to play their casual mass-market games such as AC or Pokémon. It was also a enabler of the "One Switch per user in the household" strategy. So the possibility of Video-Out would change the desirability of the device entirely when compared to base Switch. However, at the same time, it would increase costs massively for Nintendo and they wouldn’t be able to hit their desired price point.

It is what it is, but in the end I'd argue Nintendo made the right call when focusing solely into the portability aspect and dropping the others features. While calling the device a Switch is debatable due to consumer confusion, it is at the same time the right call due to the fact the hardware is part of the Switch family and ecosystem. Nintendo also had problems in the past when creating new SKUs with different names and creating confusion into consumers heads.
 
It's complicated. Lite is a damaged goods device that needs to hit a minimum price point so that Nintendo has an option for lower-income buyers and kids to play their casual mass-market games such as AC or Pokémon. It was also a enabler of the "One Switch per user in the household" strategy. So the possibility of Video-Out would change the desirability of the device entirely when compared to base Switch. However, at the same time, it would increase costs massively for Nintendo and they wouldn’t be able to hit their desired price point.
Would it, if they weren't including a dock? I know the Lite removes some internal hardware necessary for video out, but I wouldn't have guessed that alone would be a massive cost.
 
The big cost savings for the lite would have been the lack of joycon right and cheaper shell and simpler build. The dock can't be too expensive to produce. Personally I'd be happy to even have it come without a dock, but still have the ability to dock. Good for multi switch homes or upgrade paths.
 
“30 FPS with drops during spells” does not suggest they can go much lower at 1080p than a 1070, lol.

Unless they’re hitting 40-45 FPS and the spells just kill the framerate down to 20 and they’re calling it 30 FPS as a rough summary.

CPU, maybe? But I would think they would test a 1600.
you can never take system requirements at face value. we don't know anything about the test environment nor the hardware they tested it on. always wait for benchmarks
 
The big cost savings for the lite would have been the lack of joycon right and cheaper shell and simpler build. The dock can't be too expensive to produce. Personally I'd be happy to even have it come without a dock, but still have the ability to dock. Good for multi switch homes or upgrade paths.
They might have stripped cooling needed for the docked power draw, can’t remember.
 
Would it, if they weren't including a dock? I know the Lite removes some internal hardware necessary for video out, but I wouldn't have guessed that alone would be a massive cost.
Several aspects of the device, such as the SoC and the cooling system, likely have looser tolerances and/or lower capacity due to not needing to to be able to run at full docked clocks.
 
What if the lite TV ouput is just the same as portable mode? That would be a differentiator from the regular Switch.
That's to technical to explain to the average consumer.

Most switch owners probably doesn't even know there's a docked and portable mode on the regular Switch. Docked mode exists mainly to compensate for the lower ppi/ larger size of the TV, so that the perceived image quality has rough parity in both modes.

Doesn't always work perfectly in practice, but it's better than nothing.
 
Would it, if they weren't including a dock? I know the Lite removes some internal hardware necessary for video out, but I wouldn't have guessed that alone would be a massive cost.
Itwasmeanttobe19 and Pokemaniac already gave very good answers. It isn’t only a lack of a certain component to output video-out but also that a portable only device means you don't need as efective cooling solutions, you don't need the same amount or/and high rated components/circuitry to handle the increased power draw, the design of the device can be changed due lesser necessity of vent area, etc. A lot of small and insignificant changes to consumers, but that allows Nintendo to hit their desired price.
What if the lite TV ouput is just the same as portable mode? That would be a differentiator from the regular Switch.
Not only would that be hard to explain to consumers and create confusion (Why does my Switch Lite games look bad when on the TV. My friend Switch games doesn't. Why do I need to buy a pair of Joy-Cons/Pro Controller to play on TV? They should have come bundled), but also effectively kills Switch idea from a developers point of view. Why should they do the work for a Docked mode with increased resolution and better graphics, when they can simply output the same Portable Mode settings to the TV and waste less time working on both modes.

Another thing to be considered is that a lot of games employ different solutions on Portable mode to handle variable performance between Portable and Docked. Be it lesser settings or not employing certain effects while portable, dynamic resolution, resolution upscaling/interlacing, halving the framerate, etc. These tricks rely on the fact you're playing on Portable mode and either won't notice them due to the smaller screen or/and won't bother with them due to the portability aspect. See the video below:




Besides, the possibility of TV-Out also increases costs for a Lite device. Nintendo probably has data/estimates of whether the lack of TV Output is hampering Lite adoption and they're losing customers or if the consumer is choosing a higher tier Switch model. I'd argue Nintendo is more than happy with current strategy, even if Lite isn't the breakout hit expected, because most consumers are upgrading/choosing the higher tier Switch models, which are more profitable and represent a higher revenue threshold.

Finally, another thing that we should consider is: Is the lack of TV-Out really the reason why Lite sales are so slow? Or have consumers phased out of smaller screens and only a vocal niche has remained? It needs to be remembered that most of the recent smaller phones have been a straight failure or have failed their expectations. iPhone Mini being a big example. While the bigger screen models are consistently sellers. Consumers have been showing preference towards bigger screens since more than 10+ years, specially on media consumption (Games, Videos, etc) devices. Nintendo themselves found huge sucess with their XL models of DS/3DS, with these devices being the best-seller models (After their introduction) of their respective families.
 
Assuming a 540p>1080p handheld standard and 720p>1440p docked standard, it is possible that they could maybe get away with a Lite docked that still just did 540p to 1080p and advertise that the Lite’s resolution is just worse than the standard model.

1080p docking is still better than no docking imo.
 
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