• Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
  • Furukawa Speaks! We discuss the announcement of the Nintendo Switch Successor and our June Direct Predictions on the new episode of the Famiboards Discussion Club! Check it out here!

StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

Totally off-topic here, but how come this guy has a fancy gradient profile?
I believe that's available in the Super Market as Wario Club or something, it's an "oniony" glow. You use Famipoints you get from posting to get it. Sort of how like Platinum Points work on Nintendo.
 
Anyway, the announcement window for an early 2024 launch has passed.
While of course the rest of your post is very accurate, this part is untrue. Nintendo could choose to have a short reveal to release. I agree that it's unlikely, but the "window" having objectively or officially "passed" is untrue
 
I dunno if he has much credibilitity but fwiw:


Switch 2 is coming out sooner than many predicted. I already gave my opinion on the release period of Switch 2 and now I firmly reaffirm myself. Before June 2024, the new Nintendo console is launched.

I concur.
 
I dunno if he has much credibilitity but fwiw:


Switch 2 is coming out sooner than many predicted. I already gave my opinion on the release period of Switch 2 and now I firmly reaffirm myself. Before June 2024, the new Nintendo console is launched.

I concur.

The next six months will be FASCINATING.

I'm team "April is most likely but who knows".
 
While of course the rest of your post is very accurate, this part is untrue. Nintendo could choose to have a short reveal to release. I agree that it's unlikely, but the "window" having objectively or officially "passed" is untrue
Obviously to be "as accurate as possible", Nintendo could way until December 31st to reveal Switch 2 is coming in H1 2024. Pragmatically though, I do think next week is probably do or die if the hardware is being revealed in 2023. While "anything is possible", I think you're at .01% chance Nintendo is announcing/revealing anything between Thanksgiving and Christmas unless Keighly got the scoop for TGA's.
 
Weedle might have some good source(s) among spanish based developers, but for everything else that account is just unreliable.
 
Obviously to be "as accurate as possible", Nintendo could way until December 31st to reveal Switch 2 is coming in H1 2024. Pragmatically though, I do think next week is probably do or die if the hardware is being revealed in 2023. While "anything is possible", I think you're at .01% chance Nintendo is announcing/revealing anything between Thanksgiving and Christmas unless Keighly got the scoop for TGA's.
I agree, absolutely. I'm not willing to count them out until the chance reaches 0, though. Things have been unexpected in general from my perspective, so I'm still going to wait and see. As time goes on, the chances decrease, of course.
 
0
I dunno if he has much credibilitity but fwiw:


Switch 2 is coming out sooner than many predicted. I already gave my opinion on the release period of Switch 2 and now I firmly reaffirm myself. Before June 2024, the new Nintendo console is launched.

I concur.


Credibility aside, seems like he's just repeating his own prediction so I wouldn't take it as anything more than that.
 
Remedy uploaded a blog talking about the updated tech in the northlight engine. they also included a blurb about how they use mesh shaders. it's not like nanite in that it creates simplified models to keep triangles from being smaller than pixels, it just culls them.

Alan Wake 2 showcases Northlight's brand-new GPU-driven rendering pipeline. It allows us to push more geometry into the world without sacrificing performance. With GPU-driven rendering using mesh shaders, we can now do occlusion culling down to a single-pixel precision and use everything in a scene as an occluder. This ability to only draw what is visible means that the world of AW2 has more geometric detail than we’ve ever shipped before.

Diving a bit deeper into how it works: we also cull meshlets, in addition to the mesh. Meshlets are smaller, more optimized, groups of triangles extracted from the mesh. In the images below you can see what meshlets look like around Cauldron Lake's convenience store location.

6544d5a842800d0cc9817d14_meshlet_visualization2.jpg



 
I dunno if he has much credibilitity but fwiw:


Switch 2 is coming out sooner than many predicted. I already gave my opinion on the release period of Switch 2 and now I firmly reaffirm myself. Before June 2024, the new Nintendo console is launched.

I concur.


He been saying this, good to know he didn't switch goalposts, Necro is confident in H1 too
 
0
Unless Capcom announces a major unannounced game regardless of Nintendo, I'm team H1. Personally, it doesn't make sense to me that they wouldn't announce a big game until now, since it's supposed to be out by March of next year - the only explanation that makes sense to me is that they're holding off on announcing it because they're releasing it alongside the Switch 2 next March.
 
Last edited:
We have that report about Nintendo being eager to release SNG sooner rather than later if possible, assuming this is accurate, Nintendo could be looking at a rather wide window of possible release dates. With Switch still doing so well, there isnt any real urgency to get the new hardware out before all their ducks are in a row, but they are well aware of the release schedule for Switch in 2024. In its seventh year on the market, Switch is overachieving, but it also had a stellar lineup of software and two massive releases with Zelda TotK and Super Mario Wonder. 2024 for Switch will be in its eighth year on the market with no big Zelda or Mario title to keep up the momentum. Things will start to slide downhill at a rapid pace and even if Nintendo props up the hardware sales by selling Switch users another Switch, that is not the same as a new customer who will be buying multiple pieces of software. The decline on software sales will probably outpace the decline of hardware sales.
 
0
I know this is more software-talk, but I want to give my thoughts on that XCX comment.

Xenoblade is a weird series as a whole, both in terms of lore and hardware history. Considering how, according to Emily Rodgers, stressful and painful the development history of Xenoblade X was, I imagine Monolith Soft would likely to work on a slightly easier project for an 8th gen title... so why not start with a remaster of XCX? There's a lot of assets they could reuse and upres for the title, and it'd be a smoother introduction into the new hardware before they release their new IP or a new Xenoblade title. A quick launch-year title that, hopefully, wouldn't end up too badly. If BC is confirmed on the device, it'd also mean every Xenoblade title to date was playable on the system with not a lot of issues. Pretty much a win-win for Monolith Soft. The only limitation would be if there's any specific issues that the Wii U had the Monolith Soft would have to rework in order to get XCX working on the Switch 2.

Regardless, I don't mind not seeing anything from Monolith Soft for a fair bit, but a remaster of XCX would be ideal imo.
i'd love a story dlc for xenoblade x if it gets remastered 🤩
 
I wonder if releasing sooner or later will depend on how manufacturing test runs go. but they'll also want to announce when they start producing, so it's possible that the announcement would come with a very vague date and then the proper reveal after the Lunar New Year
 
Seems like the Q1 dream is dead. Still like Q2, specifically May, for release but it wouldn't shock me at all if it doesn't happen.
 
I wonder if releasing sooner or later will depend on how manufacturing test runs go. but they'll also want to announce when they start producing, so it's possible that the announcement would come with a very vague date and then the proper reveal after the Lunar New Year

If they try to play it out like with Switch, there could be a short timeframe between proper reveal and release then. March reveal to May/June launch for example.
 
why is necrolipe considered a good source of truth in regards to leaks? not doubting him, just wondering as i do not know his origin story.
 
A Fall launch also makes waaaaaaay more sense from a software perspective.

If this is launching with a killer app, it's probably either Mario Kart or 3D Mario.

3D Mario launching super close to Mario Wonder would be weird.

Mario Kart Next launching super close to the end of MK8 DLC would be weird.

So a Fall launch makes more sense there too.
a fall launch for Switch sucessor when? septembre? October? dezembre?(i leaning more toward a septembre launch, so it could be easy to prepare a great line up, and also is not too closd for the holiday, avoid supply isseus/scalpers and all the hush hush of holidays, they can do for example launch Switch sucessor in septembre with the new 3D Mario, launch Metroid Prime 4 in October, a Pokemon/Monolith Soft new game in novembre, dezembre Mario Kart
buys enough shares
"Miyamoto, wink if the switch 2 is being announced soon"
stares at him menacingly
Miyamoto trowh tea-table and cancel everything related to Switch sucessor, no more Ray-Tracing Wave Race for you
 
0
Maybe because it's not 1996 anymore but nearly 30 years later, with a games market that has significantly changed since then, too?

E: And now i feel old ...

?

I'm saying at no point in the last 27 years has a system originally launched in Q2 (and the N64 only launched in Q2 due to delays to Mario 64 which was the only major game close to being ready for launch)
 
I dunno if he has much credibilitity but fwiw:


Switch 2 is coming out sooner than many predicted. I already gave my opinion on the release period of Switch 2 and now I firmly reaffirm myself. Before June 2024, the new Nintendo console is launched.

I concur.

There was a conversation that happened a couple of weeks ago about his credibility, just dismiss him. He's not somebody worth listening to. He seemingly steals information and presents it as his own most of the time. A lot of the time he's also just flat-out wrong. Over a month ago, for example, he made claims about stuff relating to the Switch 2 being shown at TGS. Nobody has been able to back up those claims.
 
?

I'm saying at no point in the last 27 years has a system originally launched in Q2 (and the N64 only launched in Q2 due to delays to Mario 64 which was the only major game close to being ready for launch)

I'm trying to tell you that stuff that happened almost 30 years ago, for whatever reason, are not a solid arguing for why something won't/shouldn't work today.

Switch's Q1 release worked. Pretty well.

Just because no one tried it in 30 years doesn't automatically mean a Q2 release won't work.

If the system is appealing, the software is appealing, i think the time of the year matters little to not at all.

The PS5, for example, would've sold out instantly if it would've launched in March, May, June, August or November.
 
I'm pretty firmly #TeamSeptember. I'm thinking a reveal in March but I think it could be anywhere between January and June, though I feel January/June themselves are unlikely.

I was a H1 hopeful for a while but I just don't think a reveal to release schedule that short is going to happen. I get that it could, but it's a gut feeling I have that it won't.
 
There was a conversation that happened a couple of weeks ago about his credibility, just dismiss him. He's not somebody worth listening to. He seemingly steals information and presents it as his own most of the time. A lot of the time he's also just flat-out wrong.
this guy(NashWeedle) is stirring a hornet nest, that will be impossible for him to get out of it
 
0
So if Nintendo manage 10 mil more switch sales before April (Reasonable) this will put them at 142 million units sold. DS and Ps2 sit at 155 Million lifetime.

Assuming Nintendo announces the new switch early next year, what do we reckon the odds are that Nintendo can hit the approx 13 million sales of the older hardware to topple the mighty ps2s lifetime sales?

No way they manage it next fiscal year with a new console announced. Maybe 7-9 million sales? So they would need to keep making the original hardware for another year or two in order to do it. Will they do that or will existing partners all be transitioning to manufacture the switch 2?
 
why is necrolipe considered a good source of truth in regards to leaks? not doubting him, just wondering as i do not know his origin story.

He's been on point with leaks, especially in the last ~12 months surrounding Direct timing, some game stuff, things like that. Takes more of a Nate approach with hinting at dates and stuff as opposed to outright leaking, as you might expect from a journalist.

Also just tends to have good reporting in general on Switch news, I find. Perhaps take Necro less as a source of leaks and more as a source of information that is likely well sourced and you'll have a better perspective on their writing/posts.
 
Last edited:
We’ll get official info from Nintendo soon-ish, but for now here are some choice quotes from Furukawa. Translations are mine—no guarantee that they are better than the machine though.

Regarding the longevity of Switch (Sankei News):

“The Switch possesses characteristics that create a variety of demands different from conventional hardware, and we would like to meet the demand from customers who want to own multiple units”

Regarding the 15MM hardware projection, quote 1 (Bloomberg Japan):

“15 million units is a sizable objective”

Regarding the 15MM hardware projection, quote 2 (Reuters Japan):

“At this point, it is neither conservative nor aggressive, but appropriate”

Regarding the year-end sales season, quote 1 (Bloomberg Japan):

“It is very important how much the demand for replacements, additional units, and new units can be converted to actual purchases”

Regarding the year-end sales season, quote 2 (Nikkei Asia):


Regarding the timing of next-gen console (Bloomberg Japan):

“We are constantly researching and developing new hardware and software”

Regarding the Switch 2 rumors (Mainichi Shimbun):

“Rumors circulating around the Internet as if they were public information are inaccurate […] They are not factual”
(Note that he didn’t specify which parts of those rumors were inaccurate/not factual)


Regarding the two-screen patent (Mainichi Shimbun):

“We applied for the patent with the understanding that [the information] would be made public. This does not signify that it will be incorporated in future products as is”
(Note the “as is”)

Bolded that one sentence.

If Nintendo's President said the Gamescom Rumor was not factual/inaccurate, does it really matter what part he specify? The rumor was a new device was shown at Gamescom, and Nintendo said it wasn’t true. Don’t they normally take the stance of, “We don’t comment on rumors or speculation?”

It just seems to me a bit weird they would directly acknowledge it, especially to investors. Is it possible the Gamescom rumor was false In its entirety? Sure, the rumors suggested 1) a new device, 2) upgraded BOTW 4K demo, and 3) Matrix Demo, so with that, any one of those three could be actually false. So the next question would be what part of the rumor was false then?

Again, I just find it odd they’re directly communicating it, but the flip side is they have to be truthful to investors, so something is true in what he is saying.
 
It just seems to me a bit weird they would directly acknowledge it, especially to investors. Is it possible the Gamescom rumor was false In its entirety? Sure, the rumors suggested 1) a new device, 2) upgraded BOTW 4K demo, and 3) Matrix Demo, so with that, any one of those three could be actually false. So the next question would be what part of the rumor was false then?
@LiC i think above said that nintendo showed prerecorded vids of BOTW & Matrix to (imo) show what they can/want to achieve on switch 2, BOTW + Matrix seems too hard to be wrong imo considering almost everyone (including Digital Foundry & Good Vibes games) heard about those 2
 
0
Bolded that one sentence.

If Nintendo's President said the Gamescom Rumor was not factual/inaccurate, does it really matter what part he specify? The rumor was a new device was shown at Gamescom, and Nintendo said it wasn’t true. Don’t they normally take the stance of, “We don’t comment on rumors or speculation?”

It just seems to me a bit weird they would directly acknowledge it, especially to investors. Is it possible the Gamescom rumor was false In its entirety? Sure, the rumors suggested 1) a new device, 2) upgraded BOTW 4K demo, and 3) Matrix Demo, so with that, any one of those three could be actually false. So the next question would be what part of the rumor was false then?
This is how the game of telephone starts. Where did Furukawa say he was referring to Gamescom rumors? He didn't.
 
I'm trying to tell you that stuff that happened almost 30 years ago, for whatever reason, are not a solid arguing for why something won't/shouldn't work today.

Switch's Q1 release worked. Pretty well.

Just because no one tried it in 30 years doesn't automatically mean a Q2 release won't work.

If the system is appealing, the software is appealing, i think the time of the year matters little to not at all.

The PS5, for example, would've sold out instantly if it would've launched in March, May, June, August or November.
The point, indeed, is that it has not happened in a very long time. The games industry has undergone many changes since then, some of them have even been reversed. Throughout all that, consoles have launched almost exclusively in Q4.

The PS5 and Xbox Series consoles launched almost 4 years after the Switch. If launching in March was such a good strategy, you'd think either Sony or Microsoft would've caught on. They still decided to both launch in November, even when they knew that would put them in direct competition with each other during the holiday season.

Even the Switch, the exception to the rule, was supposed to come out in November of 2016, and a slight delay would still trickle into the release schedule because of the pace at which Nintendo was developing the thing. That's why it launched in March, not because it's secretly a good strategy.

Does this make a Q2 launch entirely impossible? Of course not. But it does make it unlikely, and something so unusual has a pretty high standard of evidence. A mention in a couple articles that Nintendo would be happy to launch the Switch 2 ahead of schedule, in my opinion, isn't enough to peg this as the likeliest scenario.

And to everyone out there who is just trying to be optimistic to have fun, I genuinely love that. My heart has been frozen cold by years of statistical electoral analysis, lol. I don't have an issue with anyone just trying to get excited over this thing. But if we're arguing reasons, like the people above appear to be trying... well, there aren't a ton of reasons to expect this thing in Q2
 
Bolded that one sentence.

If Nintendo's President said the Gamescom Rumor was not factual/inaccurate, does it really matter what part he specify? The rumor was a new device was shown at Gamescom, and Nintendo said it wasn’t true. Don’t they normally take the stance of, “We don’t comment on rumors or speculation?”

It just seems to me a bit weird they would directly acknowledge it, especially to investors. Is it possible the Gamescom rumor was false In its entirety? Sure, the rumors suggested 1) a new device, 2) upgraded BOTW 4K demo, and 3) Matrix Demo, so with that, any one of those three could be actually false. So the next question would be what part of the rumor was false then?

Again, I just find it odd they’re directly communicating it, but the flip side is they have to be truthful to investors, so something is true in what he is saying.
This is the same company that said Iwata was misrepresenting the company when he talked about a DS successor having better graphics.

I wouldn't take them denying the rumors seriously.
 
The point, indeed, is that it has not happened in a very long time. The games industry has undergone many changes since then, some of them have even been reversed. Throughout all that, consoles have launched almost exclusively in Q4.

The PS5 and Xbox Series consoles launched almost 4 years after the Switch. If launching in March was such a good strategy, you'd think either Sony or Microsoft would've caught on. They still decided to both launch in November, even when they knew that would put them in direct competition with each other during the holiday season.

Even the Switch, the exception to the rule, was supposed to come out in November of 2016, and a slight delay would still trickle into the release schedule because of the pace at which Nintendo was developing the thing. That's why it launched in March, not because it's secretly a good strategy.

Does this make a Q2 launch entirely impossible? Of course not. But it does make it unlikely, and something so unusual has a pretty high standard of evidence. A mention in a couple articles that Nintendo would be happy to launch the Switch 2 ahead of schedule, in my opinion, isn't enough to peg this as the likeliest scenario.

And to everyone out there who is just trying to be optimistic to have fun, I genuinely love that. My heart has been frozen cold by years of statistical electoral analysis, lol. I don't have an issue with anyone just trying to get excited over this thing. But if we're arguing reasons, like the people above appear to be trying... well, there aren't a ton of reasons to expect this thing in Q2

Just saying the reason "Because it's been done so before" is just as strong/weak as the other arguments for a H1 release.

In the end, the hard fact will be the mass productions, a start in 2023 or early 2024 (Jan) points to a H1 release, cause you're not sitting on stock for that long.
 
For what it's worth, Eurogamers latest report back from after Gamescom also had the part about Nintendo being "keen to launch earlier than that", this part following a mention of H2.

May 2024 stays winning.

My thoughts on the QA:

1. I think Nintendo lied to us investors again BUT we must see the official translation. The words are important. We take this seriously when they outright lie to us but must reserve judgement until better translations happen.

2. If he did lie, the only reason is the reveal is not close and far enough off to not piss off their fan base who bought a Switch this holiday season. January is off the table for me. Feb or March reveal.

3. Sales numbers are above my expectations.
 
Just saying the reason "Because it's been done so before" is just as strong/weak as the other arguments for a H1 release.

In the end, the hard fact will be the mass productions, a start in 2023 or early 2024 (Jan) points to a H1 release, cause you're not sitting on stock for that long.
We don't actually have any evidence that mass production is going to start imminently or early next year. We have evidence of very small quantities of parts that appear to be ready for mass production being sent to a factory in Vietnam. We have no idea what the timeline is, and anyone who has tried to estimate it in this thread has (reasonably) said to take it with a very big pinch of salt, because the information we have is really limited. Historical precedents are stronger evidence, because we know for a fact what happened in the past. Doesn't mean it will happen again necessarily, but it's a clue, and it's usually more reliable than guessing at what little current information there is
 
I don't understand where the obsession with beating PS2 lifetime sales comes from. Nintendo's priority is success, not lifetime sales numbers. They can (or at least should) care less about having a symbolic crown for most consoles sold. They aren't going to risk their platform's mindshare for the sake of internet kudos points.
 
Please read this new, consolidated staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
Last edited by a moderator:


Back
Top Bottom