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StarTopic Nintendo Switch 2 Speculation Thread |ST| The Future is Probably a Year From Now

How confident are you that one year from now (April 2nd, 2025) you will own a Switch 2 system?

  • Absolutely

    Votes: 192 57.8%

  • No because scalpers will kill my chances

    Votes: 39 11.7%

  • I hope so, but it is probably farther out

    Votes: 50 15.1%

  • Team second half 2025

    Votes: 24 7.2%

  • Josh, please stop it

    Votes: 27 8.1%
  • Total voters
    332
Reader mode
Neoxon said:
MH6 probably isn’t until 2025 to put some distance between it & DD2. That plus Street Fighter has a long history with the launch windows of Nintendo handhelds, not to mention what Nakayama & Matsumoto said to Game Informer.
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Last time it was a new Street Fighter 2 port. We need Capcom to give us a new Third Strike port.
 
Dark Cloud said:
Metroid Dread got a jump, but it’s not much. It’s over 3 million. It ain’t like the jump was even 5 million. This series ain’t good enough to be a launch title even with a jump. The jump will most likely come from the west and not Japan.
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So more than doubling the numbers of the previous game is not much of a jump ?

Not every franchise has Zelda or Mario pull, Nintendo is expanding slowly but surely and they do it effectively.

MP4 might do 5-10m and that's good enough for Nintendo to keep going. MP5 will do 10-15m, MP6 15-20m and so on, this is organic growth, that's how Zelda got there.

Just say that you don't like Metroid and it's ok lol.
 
P4bl0 said:
So more than doubling the numbers of the previous game is not much of a jump ?
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Doubling a small number does not make it a big number.
P4bl0 said:
MP4 might do 5-10m and that's good enough for Nintendo to keep going. MP5 will do 10-15m, MP6 15-20m and so on, this is organic growth, that's how Zelda got there.
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Simply not true
P4bl0 said:
Just say that you don't like Metroid and it's ok lol.
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lol
 
Neoxon said:
MH6 probably isn’t until 2025 to put some distance between it & DD2. That plus Street Fighter has a long history with the launch windows of Nintendo handhelds, not to mention what Nakayama & Matsumoto said to Game Informer.
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I mean, maybe! But I still think that we're going to see something MH next year, considering it's the 20th anniversary.
 
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qwerp said:
Doubling a small number does not make it a big number.

Simply not true

lol
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P4bl0 said:
So more than doubling the numbers of the previous game is not much of a jump ?

Not every franchise has Zelda or Mario pull, Nintendo is expanding slowly but surely and they do it effectively.

MP4 might do 5-10m and that's good enough for Nintendo to keep going. MP5 will do 10-15m, MP6 15-20m and so on, this is organic growth, that's how Zelda got there.

Just say that you don't like Metroid and it's ok lol.
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just a heads up i;m reporting both of you for in fighting
 
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P4bl0 said:
MP4 might do 5-10m and that's good enough for Nintendo to keep going. MP5 will do 10-15m, MP6 15-20m and so on, this is organic growth, that's how Zelda got there.
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Wind Waker: 4.4m
Twilight Princess: 7m+
Skyward Sword: 3.9m
Breath of the Wild: 30+m

that's organic growth?
 
Rooster said:
Yeah, Luigi's Mansion sold 13+ million to the expectation of no one. It also stars Luigi. If that's the parallel, the flagship launch title of a new system is not when Nintendo gambles on a longstanding IP jumping up one, two tiers. If anything, Nintendo will get more calculated for a system launch.

It's not like Metroid is invariably fixed at 3 mil, MP4 will probably exceed that at some point, but if anyone is talking out of their ass, it's someone who is casting Metroid in the headlining position Mario or Zelda usually take and acting like it's crazy that people would find that replacement questionable.

Metroid isn't some obscure series by any means, but it's a far cry from Nintendo's top tier commercially and demographically. Especially in Japan, which Nintendo cares about. Not knowing much about the game, not having got one in a while, Retro being talented; the reasons people aren't expecting it to be a juggernaut aren't arbitrary, the reasons people are expecting it to be a juggernaut are arbitrary.
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Saying something can’t do something is invariably more absolute than saying something can. Speculation threads generally take issues with absolutes.

The fact that we haven’t seen Metroid Prime 4 in any form and we’re quickly approaching the launch window is more than enough evidence that it could be positioned for launch - that is, at its core, why the title is even being discussed. It’s people like myself asking how does Metroid as a launch square with their history of launch titles, and other platform owner launch titles. It’s not farfetched to assume Nintendo is confident in the release enough to let it be a core focused launch title, and that it’ll be given some breathing room before Mario launches.

Again, saying it can’t do this is far more definitive a statement then saying it can.
 
P4bl0 said:
So more than doubling the numbers of the previous game is not much of a jump ?

Not every franchise has Zelda or Mario pull, Nintendo is expanding slowly but surely and they do it effectively.

MP4 might do 5-10m and that's good enough for Nintendo to keep going. MP5 will do 10-15m, MP6 15-20m and so on, this is organic growth, that's how Zelda got there.

Just say that you don't like Metroid and it's ok lol.
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Bruh you got me dying laughing right now. I got legit tears coming out of my eyes after I read this. I love Metroid. It’s one of my favorite Nintendo series ever and I always push for people to play Metroid. I know every franchise doesn’t have to be Zelda or Mario. I’m not advocating or saying it needs to be on their level.

For launch I don’t think it’s good enough.
 
P4bl0 said:
MP4 might do 5-10m and that's good enough for Nintendo to keep going. MP5 will do 10-15m, MP6 15-20m and so on, this is organic growth, that's how Zelda got there.
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giphy.gif


So shouldn't Fire Emblem be at like 20 mil by now
 
If Prime 4 is the big launch title, things will still be fine. That is what I've been trying to communicate. Feel free to ignore me or whatever. We will get the 10 million+ sellers at some point before the Holidays.
 
I think it’s very possible that the flagship JP launch title might be a Monster Hunter or Dragon Quest game, and not necessarily a first party Nintendo game.
 
D36 said:
If Prime 4 is the big launch title, things will still be fine. That is what I've been trying to communicate. Feel free to ignore me or whatever. We will get the 10 million+ sellers at some point before the Holidays.
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Yeah I agree that the switch 2 won't flop, but considering Nintendo is very weary of releasing this new generation, and they've learnt how important a good launch is, I don't think it's a risk they're willing to take.

I can very much see it being released a few months after launch though.
 
qwerp said:
Yeah I agree that the switch 2 won't flop, but considering Nintendo is very weary of releasing this new generation, and they've learnt how important a good launch is, I don't think it's a risk they're willing to take.

I can very much see it being released a few months after launch though.
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I don't think it'll be that much of a risk. It's already heavily anticipated and likely to be cross-gen.
 
As much as I'd like Metroid Prime 4 to be the marquee launch title out of spite, I don't think it really can be because... well, it's going to be a cross-gen title. The big launch game can't really be a title that's also going to be playable on Switch, even if the next-gen version ends up being leagues better and the one pushed in marketing.
 
OctoSplattack said:
As much as I'd like Metroid Prime 4 to be the marquee launch title out of spite, I don't think it really can be because... well, it's going to be a cross-gen title. The big launch game can't really be a title that's also going to be playable on Switch, even if the next-gen version ends up being leagues better and the one pushed in marketing.
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Botw says hi
 
honestly don't know why this topic gets me heated since I'll still buy the system and whatever ends up being the launch title anyways
 
It’s fine. Metroid isn’t going to be the core launch title because audiences and franchises are static. There is no meaningful growth opportunity with the IP. Might as well rule out any new IP too, since it’s probably too risky to lean on. Thanks for the heads up everybody.

I’ll come back when we have more info to work off of.
 
P4bl0 said:
Fire Emblem in niche, Metroid might become a more mainstream franchise with the successor like BOTW did and surprised us.

We will know soon
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Ehhh, I don't really think "but Fire Emblem is niche" is a great response considering 1) Metroid is a smaller IP and 2) a 4m+ seller franchise with a $1B grossing mobile spinoff isn't really "niche" no matter what narratives people like to push.
 
P4bl0 said:
Fire Emblem in niche, Metroid might become a more mainstream franchise with the successor like BOTW did and surprised us.

We will know soon
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Fire Emblem Heroes has probably made more money by itself then all of Metroid combined.

The best selling Fire Emblem game sold 1 million more copies then the best selling Metroid game

Fire Emblem spin offs can sell a million copies

If Fire Emblem is niche then Metroid is microscopic.
 
Dark Cloud said:
…that’s even worse because it’s cross gen lol. Even less reason to buy a Switch 2 for it. Come on D36 come to the right side. :)
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Wouldn't exclusive 3D Mario Day 1 make getting the system basically impossible for those who aren't crazy fanboys or scalpers?
 
karmitt said:
Saying something can’t do something is invariably more absolute than saying something can. Speculation threads generally take issues with absolutes.

The fact that we haven’t seen Metroid Prime 4 in any form and we’re quickly approaching the launch window is more than enough evidence that it could be positioned for launch - that is, at its core, why the title is even being discussed. It’s people like myself asking how does Metroid as a launch square with their history of launch titles, and other platform owner launch titles. It’s not farfetched to assume Nintendo is confident in the release enough to let it be a core focused launch title, and that it’ll be given some breathing room before Mario launches.

Again, saying it can’t do this is far more definitive a statement then saying it can.
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Ok, I said that the flagship launch title isn't when Nintendo gambles on series jumping up the ranks to the top tier because that's objectively been the case to date. Until there's proof they do, this is an accurate statement. And I agreed with you that Metroid isn't invariably fixed at 3 mil.

So I called it a gamble, not an impossibility. And I noted it's not a gamble Nintendo takes, because they don't. If they do now, it would be unprecedented.

And I didn't say it couldn't be a launch title. I'm not sure if it will, launch window seems more likely imo. I don't think it will be the flagship launch title, the one that resides in the Mario and Zelda spot. As I said. Like how I said "headlining" and "juggernaut". What I didn't say was "core focused launch title" if that's now how you want to define it.

But I maintain that none of these reasons seem compelling for it being the Mario/Zelda.
 
The Switch 2 could launch with a NSO exclusive StarFox Battle Royale as its main launch game and it would still sell out for its first few months.
 
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I'm honestly shocked y'all are so confident MP4 is even gonna release on Switch 2. There's very little to say it will or won't, and in all likelihood there's not much even saying a new console will 100% release next year. MP4 could be the holiday title for switch next year with switch 2 coming in early 2025.
 
Dark Cloud said:
Fire Emblem is bigger than Metroid as others have said due to mobile alone.
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people who play mobile games dont always play dedicated console/handhelds so the sales wont carry through. Mobile fans stay mobile fans and not switch fans in most cases probably so they probably wont buy the console fire emblem
 
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