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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

@ILikeFeet Found the text about implementing Ray Reconstruction at lower RT settings here.

"Q: Why is Ray Reconstruction just available in the RT Overdrive mode of Cyberpunk 2077 2.0 Update and Phantom Liberty?

We focused our efforts to make RT Overdrive look great in Cyberpunk 2077, and we’re working with CD Projekt to add support for Ray Reconstruction for other RT modes. Stay tuned."


I know Nvidia said the cost was about 2 ms at 4k, so I wonder how it'll scale with lower resolutions and lower ray counts.
 
I don't think these new Nintendo Live dates are really indicative of anything beyond the fact that Nintendo is really happy with how these community events have done in Japan and now the United States, and wish to expand ASAP. The recent one in Seattle is the only one so far that had an upcoming title available to play. Otherwise, the focus of these events are squarely on being casual gatherings for Nintendo fans and their families to play multiplayer games with others (Hong Kong and Taipei will probably add WarioWare to the mix), watch tournaments, and attend concerts.
I agree. I don't think us possibly getting news is of course the ONLY reason we're getting these events, though in past Nintendo Live events, they've always had upcoming new games on display or promoted, it's strange that they're doing this after Mario Wonder and not before it. There's not much to promote at the event to get people excited.
 


If even former Nintendo employees think this is the case..

It gets interesting when they mention the "recap" at the end of the Direct, according to them this Direct was the last push for Switch only content.

Dang, 2 hours? Is it worth watching in entirety? I've seen those faces before in YT thumbs, didn't realize they were former Nintendo employees, would like to check it out. Always enjoy listening in to insights from actual insiders or employees (current and former).
 
One day this video will probably be privatised and we will be in the biggest hype moment ever



biggest hype moment ever, after the one for Sushi Strikers 2
 
Also definitely useful insight but the question is less "how would this scenario be different realistically" (of course Nintendo wants to get away with the same profit margins if they can) but "Nintendo wants to ensure the maximal number of multiplatform current gen only games come to Switch 2, however, current gen is suddenly running on maximal feasibly clocked 2020 (ie, same node) ARM CPUs over Zen 2.
In terms of "power gap" if Nintendo and Microsoft are on fundamentally the same architecture, then the competition is "node" and "power consumption." The time gap between nodes is getting longer and longer, so I don't think Nintendo can get substantially ahead just a few years later based on node, or improvements to the ARM core itself.

The Series S APU is 2x the size of the Switch's, roughly, and 7x the power consumption. 2x the number of cores, at 2x the clock seems like a good estimate for what Microsoft will have available.

Of course, how much that performance gap matters depends on the games. A 20% power gap in a world where every game is pushing the Xbox CPU to the limit already might be an insurmountable obstacle. A 100% power gap in a world where CPU workloads vary widely, and games are often still scaling down to phones/tablets might be perfectly managable.

From what I can understand, we’re getting a PS4 in handheld mode and PS4 pro in docked. And that is BEFORE DLSS.
This is in excess of my expectation by a decent margin. Changing "Before" to "after" is going to get you closer, I think.

So, there's lots of pictures and videos of RT and DLSS technology being posted that look amazing, but I'm very tech-illiterate when it comes to these things and can't really distinguish between the different examples being shown, especially when numbers and different hardware parts are being discussed. If I want to try and look at idiot-proof videos for what we can realistically expect in terms of graphics/performance for the Switch 2 given the current low-ball assumptions on the hardware, i.e. something akin to base PS4 with DLSS, RT and such, would it suffice to do a simple YouTube search with "PS4 + DLSS + RT" to get an idea or should I look for something more specific?
Digital Foundry is planning on some tests to simulate what Drake might be able to do. The challenge you're going to have is that there isn't anything like Drake on the market. There are systems with it's cool features (Nvidia desktop cards) and there are systems at its level of power (the PS4-ish, the Steam Deck), but nothing that sits on top of both.

Here is a video that might help you get your bearings. It's a 2050 laptop, with a guy trying to push frame rates, so despite still being more powerful than Drake, I think this all represents totally achievable visuals. I would expect games to look this good or significantly better on NG. I think the Far Cry example is especially good for what we might get.

I know Nvidia said the cost was about 2 ms at 4k, so I wonder how it'll scale with lower resolutions and lower ray counts.
...on a 4090. I suspect that it has nothing to do with ray input count, same as with DLSS upscaler, and everything to do without output resolution. In the same talk, Bryan Catanzaro said it was "4 times upscaling cost", so that's what I think I'm gonna roll with as the default till better data comes along.
 


If even former Nintendo employees think this is the case..

It gets interesting when they mention the "recap" at the end of the Direct, according to them this Direct was the last push for Switch only content.

just so you know these guys LOVE clickbait
 
Not really imo. I'm dying to know what Oldpuck knows, the the only thing I can glean from this is that it has a codename.
And that it allows one to instantly spot a certain class of fake leaks.. leaks that look fake for other reasons (paraphrasing oldpuck).

Trying to figure out what that means exactly. The codename (or in small chance it's the actual name), I guess says something about the console itself. Other than that, I'm not sure what is meant by "allows one to instantly spot a certain class of fake leaks".
 
And that it allows one to instantly spot a certain class of fake leaks.. leaks that look fake for other reasons (paraphrasing oldpuck).

Trying to figure out what that means exactly. The codename (or in small chance it's the actual name), I guess says something about the console itself. Other than that, I'm not sure what is meant by "allows one to instantly spot a certain class of fake leaks".
I think he means that if the leaks claim a codename that does not line up with the one he knows, he can pretty easily throw the whole thing out the window.
 
This is in excess of my expectation by a decent margin. Changing "Before" to "after" is going to get you closer, I think.
I decided to omit it all together 💀. The new switch will have more RAM, more advanced features, better SOC, plus DLSS. DLSS makes it really hard to predict what games are going to like, but I’m very confident to say that games shouldn’t look different from current gen. I think this is the closest Nintendo has ever been to have games looking on par with the other consoles again since the GameCube.
 
Ohhh.

Okay folks, i'll do this one for the thread.

I offer 1000 Famicoins to the one who leaks it! ;D
I'll offer 1000 real coins to the one who leaks it.

The coins will be pennies.

America is far from the only majority-Christian country with a highly consumerist capitalist economy.
Don't depress me
 
In terms of "power gap" if Nintendo and Microsoft are on fundamentally the same architecture, then the competition is "node" and "power consumption." The time gap between nodes is getting longer and longer, so I don't think Nintendo can get substantially ahead just a few years later based on node, or improvements to the ARM core itself.

The Series S APU is 2x the size of the Switch's, roughly, and 7x the power consumption. 2x the number of cores, at 2x the clock seems like a good estimate for what Microsoft will have available.

Of course, how much that performance gap matters depends on the games. A 20% power gap in a world where every game is pushing the Xbox CPU to the limit already might be an insurmountable obstacle. A 100% power gap in a world where CPU workloads vary widely, and games are often still scaling down to phones/tablets might be perfectly managable.
Yeah, sadly "how games perform" is really where the exercise falls apart. I'd love to be able to point to the answer of "half as many cores, half the clock" and say "well, if the Switch 2 IS half the CPU performance of Series X and thats enough for most multiplats, where does half that performance put Nintendo", but the reality is, running serial tasks at half speed, vs. running parallel tasks on half as many threads, or in the most difficult to compare case, running with fewer parallel tasks at all, makes it kind of hard to pin point what would be possible without knowing how games would be built around this supposed ARM CPU. But it does seem like, no matter what, it would pose some form of legitimate difficulty.

I do wonder when we'll reach the day that, while node jumps being to offer less and less of a performance benefit, so do the benefits of gaining performance at all with CPU.

Ignoring ray tracing as its still in its infancy, with rasterization, I believe the day is rapidly approaching where a 4 times difference in pure rasterization could be suddenly meaningless to the average consumer. If 8k ever becomes commonplace in games, the visual difference between 8k and 4k to most people is going to be far less than that we saw with 1080 and 4k. Even at the same resolution, as we begin to reach one triangle per pixel, beyond better material effects, more lighting, and ray tracing, it also feels like there are fewer and fewer benefits to pushing performance in the traditional ways rasterization does. So in the future, the gap between mobile GPUs and home console GPUs may fall apart. If Nvidia can keep ahead of AMD in terms of how they use DLSS-like technology to "cheat" ray tracing, while it definitely wont be great for people without Nvidia cards, it could mean that Nintendo at least has a way to continue to stay relevant with GPU technology on a lower power budget. But I honestly wonder if they'd be able to get away with that in the future with their CPU budget.
 
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Theory:

What if we get Mario Galaxy 2 as a Spring 2024 launch game remake ? That would explain why they didn't put in on Switch 1.. It would also work with Peach game releasing on Switch 1 around the same timing.

A lot of people missed out on that game, and I feel like Nintendo wants to reuse their AAA games that didn't have much time to shine

I also feel like the Galaxy world would be ideal to showcase the Raytracing and other bells and whistles

Then MP4 in Summer/Fall 2024 and Mario Kart 10 for Holiday
The new 3D Mario in 2025 when the new system has a decent userbase

I'm thinking this because the Rosalia amiibo is coming back out of the blue too
Maybe not for launch but the return of Super Mario Galaxy 2 in any other context would be ridiculously good.

It’s up there with Tears of the Kingdom as one of the best sequels to any game of all time IMO. It’s also one of my favorite games ever made by a very large margin (though I still have rose-tinted glasses for Galaxy 1 personally)
 
Not really imo. I'm dying to know what Oldpuck knows, the the only thing I can glean from this is that it has a codename.
I'll say that 90% of the stuff that I know/heard with any kind of confidence all came out after Gamescom. There are some obscure technical details that I'm fairly confident on, but nothing that this thread would consider interesting or useful. Beyond that really all I got at the moment is "it has a codename."


And that it allows one to instantly spot a certain class of fake leaks.. leaks that look fake for other reasons (paraphrasing oldpuck).

Trying to figure out what that means exactly. The codename (or in small chance it's the actual name), I guess says something about the console itself. Other than that, I'm not sure what is meant by "allows one to instantly spot a certain class of fake leaks".
I think he means that if the leaks claim a codename that does not line up with the one he knows, he can pretty easily throw the whole thing out the window.
Yeah, exactly this. So far, the ones that have had some kind of codename have been so obviously fanfic, that I would ignore them anyway.
 
0
Nate is way too confident that Prime 4 is nearly completed.

They're still hiring for contract workers to work on Prime 4 and hired a bunch of people pretty recently to work on Prime 4. It's probably just going to be finished mid 2025 instead of being held for the Switch 2.

They released Prime 1 Remastered as a shadowdrop because they wanted people to buy it digitally.

He's just buying way too much into MetalLord's bad sleuthing.

Again, Fable Reboot is a game that will take (at minimum) eight years to make. Games take an extremely long time.
 
Nintendo will be using quantum computers by the time Microsoft transitions to ARM.
I know you are using this claim to exaggerate a little to lend credence to your main (correct) claim that other companies are ahead of the curve compared to MS in terms of switching to ARM. But quantum computers do not have a compelling use case for gaming in any capacity as of now. They are for fundamentally different tasks. We may see their adoption one day if cloud-oriented computation starts becoming the norm in gaming but that is a long shot, at least in the here and now.
 
Nate is way too confident that Prime 4 is nearly completed.

They're still hiring for contract workers to work on Prime 4 and hired a bunch of people pretty recently to work on Prime 4. It's probably just going to be finished mid 2025 instead of being held for the Switch 2.

They released Prime 1 Remastered as a shadowdrop because they wanted people to buy it digitally.

He's just buying way too much into MetalLord's bad sleuthing.

Again, Fable Reboot is a game that will take (at minimum) eight years to make. Games take an extremely long time.
I'd need to look at those job postings again - I do know Retro Studios posted those recently - but do they say Metroid Prime 4 specifically? Are we certain it's not another project Retro Studios is working on?
 
Nate is way too confident that Prime 4 is nearly completed.

They're still hiring for contract workers to work on Prime 4 and hired a bunch of people pretty recently to work on Prime 4. It's probably just going to be finished mid 2025 instead of being held for the Switch 2.

They released Prime 1 Remastered as a shadowdrop because they wanted people to buy it digitally.

He's just buying way too much into MetalLord's bad sleuthing.

Again, Fable Reboot is a game that will take (at minimum) eight years to make. Games take an extremely long time.

He's basing it on MP Remastered being sat on for so long. They probably wouldn't have released it without having a timeline for MP4 set in stone, and you don't have that unless it's close to being done.
 
Nate is way too confident that Prime 4 is nearly completed.

They're still hiring for contract workers to work on Prime 4 and hired a bunch of people pretty recently to work on Prime 4. It's probably just going to be finished mid 2025 instead of being held for the Switch 2.

They released Prime 1 Remastered as a shadowdrop because they wanted people to buy it digitally.

He's just buying way too much into MetalLord's bad sleuthing.

Again, Fable Reboot is a game that will take (at minimum) eight years to make. Games take an extremely long time.

Do you think MP4 will release in August ?
 
He's basing it on MP Remastered being sat on for so long. They probably wouldn't have released it without having a timeline for MP4 set in stone, and you don't have that unless it's close to being done.

That was what a lot of people hoped, but I think they just didn't like their Q1 release calendar and decided that they needed another game.

It also calmed down a lot of the "is the Switch too weak?" talk caused by Pokemon.
 
0
Nate is way too confident that Prime 4 is nearly completed.

They're still hiring for contract workers to work on Prime 4 and hired a bunch of people pretty recently to work on Prime 4. It's probably just going to be finished mid 2025 instead of being held for the Switch 2.
Studios never stop hiring, Prime 4 team will not disappear once Prime 4 launches some will move to next Retro game but others will keep supporting the game for future patches needed.
 
Digital Foundry is planning on some tests to simulate what Drake might be able to do. The challenge you're going to have is that there isn't anything like Drake on the market. There are systems with it's cool features (Nvidia desktop cards) and there are systems at its level of power (the PS4-ish, the Steam Deck), but nothing that sits on top of both.

Here is a video that might help you get your bearings. It's a 2050 laptop, with a guy trying to push frame rates, so despite still being more powerful than Drake, I think this all represents totally achievable visuals. I would expect games to look this good or significantly better on NG. I think the Far Cry example is especially good for what we might get

Thank you for the explanation and the link!

I'll offer 1000 real coins to the one who leaks it.

In my currency, 1.000 coins is about $7 so I’m willing to donate a 1.000 real coins for sure.
 
Has "Nintendo eShop" specifically ever been listed among the different platforms a game is coming to? I've never noticed that before now when they showed off a trailer today for Trails Through Daybreak with the eShop logo right next to the Switch logo.
 
Yeah, probably not short-term contract workers (which is mostly what they're hiring for right now for Prime 4)

It's probably just still ~20 months away
Doing basic search, one can find Linkedin profiles of Retro Studio employees with title of "Product Tester (Contract)" from October 2022 to present. That's a position that began nearly a full year ago.

You simply don't know why they're hiring contract workers today. Could be for a different project. Also: where does it say "short term"? There's no mention of that anywhere.
 
Doing basic search, one can find Linkedin profiles of Retro Studio employees with "Product Tester (Contract)" from October 2022 to present. That's a position that began nearly a full year ago.

You just don't know why they're hiring product testers today. Could be for a different project.

Well, on LinkedIn, they advertise the jobs with "come help us make Metroid Prime 4!" so

image.png


The posting gives

"Senior External Environment Artist [Remote Contract] (Retro Studios)"

 
America is far from the only majority-Christian country with a highly consumerist capitalist economy.
Aren't they FROM the UK? The place that's still, on paper, a theocracy? A capitalist, "Christian", theocratic monarchy?

I think they know a thing or two about how Christmas operates in their own country, at least, maybe more than you do.

The extent of American consumerism in the October to December period is on an entirely different scale to what happens on these fair isles, with multiple gift giving holidays across several cultures. Meanwhile, "big gifts" here are as common on Christmas as birthdays, or the exam season. One of the peak times for "consumption" in the economic sense in the UK and Ireland is JANUARY.

That's before we get into the complexities of the many kinds of Christianity observed in the UK, including two or three with a very, very violent history that probably, in my opinion, shouldn't just be brushed off with a "far from the only Christian-majority country".

Man alive.

Anyway, yeah, "Holiday period" definitely bigger in America, which was their point.
 
what would you expect in terms of power for NG switch?

Because honestly i thought PS4 level of power on handheld & PS4 Pro level of power on docked seemed sorta realistic
It's the "before DLSS" that I took objection to.

Let me quote Richard Leadbetter from Digital Foundry in a recent video

The thing is the whole basis of all GPU reviews at the moment is based on the fundamental principle that every card does exactly the same job just with different performance levels, that they're a hundred percent comparable on an apples to apples basis. And to be fair for a long time, for decades even, that was absolutely true - until RTX came along.

The reason that these performance comparisons tend to go in circles is because, as the only Nvidia console, the sorts of comparisons that have worked for the last 20 years just don't apply anymore.

TL;DR
if you want to use some direct comparison between consoles, the NG gets stomped by the last gen pro consoles and all the current gen consoles. But that's ignoring NG's special technologies. If you include NG's special technologies, it fares much better but things like "As powerful as" or "50% of" become ridiculous statements that don't hold water anymore. Nintendo will be able to make first party games using those technologies that absolutely blow the last gen out of the water, while ports that seem "equivalent" need compromises.

Bad analogy: the Switch is a butter knife, the PS4 is a steak knife, the PS4 Pro is a chef's knife, and the NG is a steak knife plus a Vitamix high powered blender. If you're making salsa, the NG is the best set of tools. If you're carving a turkey, the PS4 Pro is.

Imagine you had a version of Death Stranding for consoles that let you tweak the settings the same what that the PC does. You install it on PS4 Pro and NG. You make the settings match identically between the two, with the NG docked. The PS4 Pro will absolutely stomp all over the NG. It just will. The PS4 Pro will have better frame rates, and there will be some settings high enough where the PS4 Pro looks gorgeous, and is perfectly playable, and the NG is brought to its knees.

This is the traditional way of comparing the power of these machines. When we say "50% of a Series S" most people mean, and most people hear, something like this. "You will need to cut resolution by 50% or frame rate by 50%, roughly, to get this game to run like the Series S visuals, and if that's not acceptable (because the res or frame rate would be unplayable low) you will need to make other kinds of setting cut as well, like turning off shadows, or reflections, or texture quality, or anti-aliasing."

But RTX technologies - the ones that are in the NG - completely change this dynamic. Let's go back to our tweakable Death Stranding for a second. Let's tweak our settings till we get a nice, steady 30fps on PS4 Pro. And for the sake of simplicity, let's assume that NG is getting 15fps.

Well, NG can do DLSS, an option that simply doesn't exist on PS4 Pro. Let's leave every other setting untouched, and add that. Boom, 30fps. Except the games are no longer pixel identical. DLSS looks different than PS4 Pro's checkerboarded 4k. Does it look worse? No. Does it look better - also no! There are chunks that are superior, like high detail foliage. There are places where it looks worse, like motion artifacts when an object moves quickly. Digital Foundry has a whole 18 minute video comparing the two, but I think the differences are ultimately subjective.

Does that mean the NG is as powerful as PS4 Pro? Because if you're using the traditional mindset, that's not true, and bad ports will certainly reflect that. But good ports will look comparable. is that close enough to say "PS4 Pro docked?" Maybe? But it gets weirder.

Because obviously we've given NG the upper hand by letting it use modern upscaling, but not letting PS4 Pro. So what happens when you throw FSR2 in the mix? Well, if you just look at the numbers, like we used to, then PS4 Pro starts stomping again. But if you look at the image on screen, they suddenly look very different.

DLSS is a vastly superior upscaler. The pixel differences are suddenly much greater, and they'll never match. Do I need to use less upscaling - and lower frame rate - with FSR to get it closer to DLSS? Well, depends on the game and how much I care about temporal stability versus high frequency detail versus frame rates. There will no longer be one consistent answer. And this applies to every console comparison currently. Series S, even Series X and PS5 will simply be facing a whole different set of trade offs.

And all of this is just replicated again with Ray Tracing! Hardware ray tracing is a feature the PS4 Pro doesn't have at all. How do I talk about "well the PS4 Pro version runs 60fps, but the NG version has ray traced shadows." Which is more powerful? It's kind of a meaningless question at that point, and it's about preference, and what the developers are choosing to do with the hardware.

And there is yet another complication to this whole situation the PS4 Pro and the Series S have never, and will never be used to their full potential in a game. The PS4 Pro, by licensing agreement with Sony, will never have an exclusive. The Series S, for the same reason with Microsoft, will never have an exclusive.

This is why I can confidently say that "PS 4 Pro like games will be the expectation" - because all those experiences are also possible on PS4, and all PS4 Pro got, for the most part, was resolution increases, something DLSS can do handily. Any halfway decent PS4 Pro port should match resolution, frame rate, and settings on NG.

In the case of the Series S, it is only receiving cut down Series X games. That puts it in a wildly different place. There will be some games where cutting them down to the Series S's size pushed the engineering to the limits, and DLSS isn't powerful enough on it's own to close that gap. Starfield is likely in that boat. On the other hand, you have games like Control, where Ray Tracing is disabled on Series S, but might be possible on NG. "50% of a Series S" is suddenly an insane sentence, it doesn't describe anything actually happening in reality.
 
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