StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Giancarlo]

Mario Kart team has been doing DLC for nearly the past 2 years and is just now wrapping up this holiday. Doubtful they’d have the next entry ready to go next year. If MK10 was coming so soon they wouldn’t have brought back DLC waves IMO.

Meanwhile Odyssey came out 6 years ago with not an ounce of DLC when they could’ve given us level packs or worlds to hold us over.

TLDR: EPD has been cooking up a new 3D Mario and we’ll see the fruits of their hard work with Switch 2 in 2024 most likely

do you really believe that the entirity of Mario Kart team was working on the Booster Course Pass, of course not, DLC require less resources/personel then working on a game

 

[ILikeFeet]

Was this tweet already posted? Sorry, I've had to skip by many pages.



Is this person to be trusted? Because they're way off from the T239 stolen data, not to mention that most people seem to expect the A78C rather than the regular A78.

the person is trust worthy from past leaks. that said, I don't think this has anything to do with Nintendo and is probably talking about a binned T239, if real. binned TX1s appeared in Jetson nanos and Shields, so it's not out of the question for the same to happen here

It's over? RR dream is dead?

it's not dead. as mentioned, Nvidia said it can work with non-path traced workloads. they also mentioned that there's a cost to it, so I wonder if it's just not worth the added cost versus a regular denoiser for just one or two effects

timestamped

Now hexagons, nature loves hexagons. Hexagons are the shit to nature.

Hexagons are bestagons

 

[D36]

Guys, it's not even noon, yet and nothing concrete has shown up. Why are we moving so damn fast???

 

[qwerp]

That's a 2016 tweet. I was referring to E3 2014 at the time. A new system was not hinted by Nintendo at the time I think?

But yeah, I think I remember Nintendo dropping hints of new system before the October 2016 announcement. I guess "officially" was wrong word to use on my part. October 2016 was when we learned of the name. But before October 2016 we did indeed get an official mention of next gen system, as you showed in the April 2016 tweet.

The first official mention of next gen hardware was in March 2015, at the DeNa partnership press conference.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I’m going to make the suggestion that we drop the possible reveal month discussion until there’s more info to work with or another independent theory comes out. I think the discussion on its current grounds is well exhausted and nothing new being added.

I concur.

So let’s talk about Lite 2 colors

 

[korok]

October is still a larger gap than November 7th by a couple weeks.

The gap between October 20th and March 3rd is excatly the same as November 7th and March 20th, for example. And November 7th doesn't have to be the exact date for the reveal, no one said that. Really, you are just spitting the first thing that comes to your mind.

 

[Hosermess]

The system isn't releasing before September 2024 as much as I'd love to be wrong.
They didn't announce support for Splatoon 3 until that time for nothing.
Splatoon is basically an ARG at this point, with the community deciding its plot, they wouldn't have wouldn't have announced support for one of their most successful games and then drop a new console on top. It's not even about the sales, it's about intention.
Nintendo is not going to setup what is basically a live service game and then move to the next generation while S3 is still running.

The answer has always been there. You can screenshot this. I'm willing to swap to a stupid avatar for a whole year if I'm wrong. Splatoon 3 is the answer.

Like Bonejack said, having BC means a Switch 2 release doesn't mean the end of support for S3. Unless you're also assuming S4 could be a launch game.

I do like the theory that I had along with others, that the Side Order DLC could come with a fancy edition for Switch 2 users (if that does release in spring/H1). Though that longshot theory also includes the 2nd Pokemon expansion and hypothesized TotK DLC content. Both of which are now apparently off the table.

 

[Bonejack]

Not really because splatoon would be halfway dead by that point.

What I'm saying is not that the Switch 2 can't launch because of Splatoon 3. What I'm saying is that Nintendo setup the Splatoon 3 update roadmap to finish before Switch 2 because they know when it's releasing.

Dunno, sounds like a lot of speculative works from you and definitely not something official.

Also, if Splatoon would be halfway dead by that point, why would it be so important to wait until it's GAAS content is done?

Doesn't that sounds like a contradiction to you?

If anything, being able to play Splatoon 3 on ReDraketed via BC or even a native version with cross-play with the Switch version is a very good way to keep Splatoon 3 around for some more time.

 

[darthdiablo]

the person is trust worthy from past leaks. that said, I don't think this has anything to do with Nintendo and is probably talking about a binned T239, if real. binned TX1s appeared in Jetson nanos and Shields, so it's not out of the question for the same to happen here

For my own reference, why do we think the person is "probably" talking about T239 at all (binned or whatnot)? The tweet seems to not be in response to anything and the other tweets from this person is just about GPUs in general.

 

[kvetcha]

it's not dead. as mentioned, Nvidia said it can work with non-path traced workloads. they also mentioned that there's a cost to it, so I wonder if it's just not worth the added cost versus a regular denoiser for just one or two effects

very cool that RR simultaneously replaces standard super-resolution AND the denoiser. They do say it's 4x as heavy as super-resolution alone (on a 4090), so it will be interesting to see whether it's at all tenable for T239.

 

[Cole]

 

[theguy]

Was Demon Souls PS5’s blockbuster launch title there to drive hardware sales?

The point was also based around Nintendo having a record in a couple of instances of not showing that their hardware was the ‘next generation’ and thus not securing a successful hardware transition.

After the Wii U, Nintendo will want a brand new shiny game showing off the new hardware to help avoid any doubts.

Sony didn't have a big first party release until February 2022.


But they sell mostly for Call of Duty, EA FC, etc so Nintendo probably won't risk doing that.

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Switch 2 launch without a big first-party game (instead, smaller stuff on the level of Pikmin), but I would be surprised to see it go 6 months without a huge title.

Demon souls sold 1.4 million as of September 2021.

Hardly a massive launch title.

Are you guys just picking and choosing what a launch/1st party title is? it launched with the system and it was released by SIE. Of course it was there to try and drive hardware sales, why the hell else would they choose to launch the system with it?

Regardless of sales numbers it still launched with the system. It was a remake of a game from two generations prior.

To reiterate, as I assume we all speak English fairly competently, it is therefore a launch and first party title.

There is clearly a precedent from another company to launch a system with a remake, so it is within the realms of possibility that Nintendo could do that. I’m not saying that they will, but to say things like why would they launch with a remake it’s silly, no one does that, is redundant. Successful sales of software is NOT equal to successful sales of hardware. A good launch title is important, but people will STILL buy new hardware because it’s new and does things better than it’s predecessor. So long as they don’t repeat the horrendous marketing mistakes of the Wii U, which incidentally had fantastic software, they needn’t worry too much.

 

[VagrantValmar]

Like Bonejack said, having BC means a Switch 2 release doesn't mean the end of support for S3. Unless you're also assuming S4 could be a launch game.

I do like the theory that I had along with others, that the Side Order DLC could come with a fancy edition for Switch 2 users (if that does release in spring/H1). Though that longshot theory did include the 2nd Pokemon expansion and hypothesized TotK DLC content. Both of which are now apparently off the table.

While I'm not assuming S4 would be a launch day title, I do think nintendo will want to try to have one as soon as possible to move units in Japan. Splatoon is a massive system seller over there.

Dunno, sounds like a lot of speculative works from you and definitely not something official.

Also, if Splatoon would be halfway dead by that point, why would it be so important to wait until it's GAAS content is done?

Doesn't that sounds like a contradiction to you?

If anything, being able to play Splatoon 3 on ReDraketed via BC or even a native version with cross-play with the Switch version is a very good way to keep Splatoon 3 around for some more time.

I mean, yeah of course it's my speculation but I feel confident about it.

It's not contradictory because playing S3 in the NG Switch would only be appealing if the game still had some life on it. Assuming Switch 2 launches on March at the absolute earliest, that would mean Splatoon would have at most 5 months of life left to it. I'm not gonna say it's impossible because I can still be wrong but I seriously doubt they would want that.

Plus Nintendo has no other GaaS active. Even MK and Smash are having their absolute last content release so it seems Nintendo wants to close all of their "pending" stuff before transitioning generations.

 

[Bonejack]

Thank god, new content.

 

[qwerp]

Are you guys just picking and choosing what a launch/1st party title is? it launched with the system and it was released by SIE. Of course it was there to try and drive hardware sales, why the hell else would they choose to launch the system with it?

Regardless of sales numbers it still launched with the system. It was a remake of a game from two generations prior.

To reiterate, as I assume we all speak English fairly competently, it is therefore a launch and first party title.

There is clearly a precedent from another company to launch a system with a remake, so it is within the realms of possibility that Nintendo could do that. I’m not saying that they will, but to say things like why would they launch with a remake it’s silly, no one does that, is redundant. Successful sales of software is NOT equal to successful sales of hardware. A good launch title is important, but people will STILL buy new hardware because it’s new and does things better than it’s predecessor. So long as they don’t repeat the horrendous marketing mistakes of the Wii U, which incidentally had fantastic software, they needn’t worry too much.

When did I say that wasn't a first party launch title?

PlayStation can sell on the name alone. I don't think Nintendo believes they can do the same, nor should they.

A full fledged new game, built from the ground up for NG switch is better than a remake if you want to showcase the new console.

 

[Deleted member 2181]

The responses just give no reason as to why they would ever want this is why the responses are bad.

The shortest "announcement of original release window" to release for a gaming console since at least 1994 is 6 months, with most doing 9+ months.

I think Nintendo has two goals: Continue selling Switch at the highest possible price point for as long as possible, and then to maximise the sales of their new hardware.

Let's look at these in turn.
First, consider that Switch is still selling very well, without a nominal discount. People are right to say that people who are buying Switch today are not going to be early adopters of the next console. However, those people would assume that the next console's release will be accompanied by a drop in price of Switch, and they would consequently hold off.

But, yes, the next console also needs to be marketed. How long is the necessary marketing period? You're saying that for consoles it's six months minimum. But that isn't true for virtually any other tech product. Partly that's because the cadence for, say, phones, is so rapid. But it indicates to me that you absolutely DON'T need really long marketing periods. We can also see this in how Nintendo now market their games. Four months for their big holiday title Mario Wonder, for example. In an ideal world, you want to blow out the product and then have people pre-order it there and then, in the thick of the excitement.

Against that, though, there's leaks and the risk of losing control of the narrative. What Nintendo probably don't want is for everybody in the world to be aware that a Switch 2 is coming, and for them to Google it and find grainy, badly-lit photos of the housing taken by some factory or warehouse employee. And there comes a point where such a thing is almost inevitable.

So it stands to reason then that Nintendo will want to announce the console as late as they can, but before the likelihood of substantial leaks will damage their narrative.

How long is that? A couple months into mass production?
Really, I agree with you, I don't think we're going to hear anything in November, but that's because I don't think mass production will begin until Jan. Which means it's not coming out in March. But I don't agree that there MUST be a six month notice period. I think they can get away with four months. And that's if they determine that leaks are a threat. They may just not care. Then the question comes down to marketing alone.

 

[YolkFolk]

Are you guys just picking and choosing what a launch/1st party title is? it launched with the system and it was released by SIE. Of course it was there to try and drive hardware sales, why the hell else would they choose to launch the system with it?

Regardless of sales numbers it still launched with the system. It was a remake of a game from two generations prior.

To reiterate, as I assume we all speak English fairly competently, it is therefore a launch and first party title.

There is clearly a precedent from another company to launch a system with a remake, so it is within the realms of possibility that Nintendo could do that. I’m not saying that they will, but to say things like why would they launch with a remake it’s silly, no one does that, is redundant. Successful sales of software is NOT equal to successful sales of hardware. A good launch title is important, but people will STILL buy new hardware because it’s new and does things better than it’s predecessor. So long as they don’t repeat the horrendous marketing mistakes of the Wii U, which incidentally had fantastic software, they needn’t worry too much.

Super Mario Bros, Super Mario World, Super Mario 64, Twilight Princess, Breath of the Wild

vs

Luigi's Mansion, Nintendo Land

Which side do you think worked out best for Nintendo?

The Switch did so well out of the gate because it had an amazing software line up through 2017, not since it was a new shiny Nintendo console.

Where Nintendo are concerned, great software drives the hardware and always will.

 

[Danny]

It's over? RR dream is dead?

Also, I think a November reveal is perfectly believable. If they want to produce enough units then they should be starting production soon. At that point, it will become impossible to prevent mass leaks of what the thing looks like and possibly pictures of the SoC circulating online. Best way to counter that is to just reveal the thing for a release next year.

As for conflicting with Switch holiday period sales—price cuts. It's simple.

Exactly, we have seen articles about Nintendo aiming to go inte production mode for switch 2 this winter, that will probably lead to leaks happening. So Nintendo should have a plan to be ready by then to announce it.

 

[Dekuman]

Yeah, Switch is an outlier.

Nintendo's communication had to deal with things they don't have to deal with today.
-The NX was announced in 2015 along with the DeNA partnership to signal to investors they weren't abandoning home console gaming
-The NX launch date announcement in 2016 was because BOTW was going to be cross-gen, so they had to prepare fans waiting for the Wii U console for the game's actual launch date not being in 2016.

Switch 2/NG/Redacted will have a much more traditional reveal to launch cycle.

 

[theguy]

Super Mario Bros, Super Mario World, Super Mario 64, Twilight Princess, Breath of the Wild

vs

Luigi's Mansion, Nintendo Land

Which side do you think worked out best for Nintendo?

The Switch did so well out of the gate because it had an amazing software line up through 2017, not since it was a new shiny Nintendo console.

Where Nintendo are concerned, great software drives the hardware and always will.

Great software does drive hardware sales I agree with you on that point. But it’s not the only thing that does. I’m not saying that Nintendo will not have something awesome as a launch title. The point that you and the other two people that I had quoted were disputing that a remake couldn’t possibly be a launch title. My point was that it could. Demon’s Souls although not selling incredibly well, still managed to showcase how amazing games on the PS5 could look. I don’t doubt that Nintendo have something up their sleeves. Hell, even BotW running at 4k/60 with instant loading times, better textures and draw distance is a great showcase of the power of the system.

 

[Alovon11]

it's not dead. as mentioned, Nvidia said it can work with non-path traced workloads. they also mentioned that there's a cost to it, so I wonder if it's just not worth the added cost versus a regular denoiser for just one or two effects

timestamped

Seemingly depends on how much Tensor Core Headroom you have.

Based on all the tests done with RR On vs RR off at the same settings in RT Overdrive, it's a overall performance saving with perf being equal at worst.

So the cost of the default Denoiser hitting the shader/RT cores is the same, or higher than the Tensor cores doing RR.

It just adds Frametime to DLSS Specifically

 

[Armoured_Bear]

Switch 2/NG/Redacted will have a much more traditional reveal to launch cycle.

You DO.NOT.KNOW.THIS.

So much of PR and announcements has dramatically changed, 20 years ago is irrelevant. It's like saying 10 years ago "Nintendo will never release a Hybrid because since the Gameboy they've always had a handheld and a home console".
Guess what, things change and old practises are not set in stone for eternity.

None of us know when the announcement and release will be but people arguing and being so sure when they do not have a clue is utterly preposterous and really, really boring to keep reading.

 

[kvetcha]

Seemingly depends on how much Tensor Core Headroom you have.

Based on all the tests done with RR On vs RR off at the same settings in RT Overdrive, it's a overall performance saving with perf being equal at worst.

So the cost of the default Denoiser hitting the shader/RT cores is the same, or higher than the Tensor cores doing RR.

It just adds Frametime to DLSS Specifically

Yes, but the reason they use path-traced games to demo the technology is because in these cases it is replacing five or six separate denoisers for individual RT effects. But RR remains just as expensive if a game is only using, say, RT reflections, and thus only running one denoising pass.

We don't really have any data to demonstrate how heavy it is in more limited deployment of RT.

 

[lattjeful]

it's not dead. as mentioned, Nvidia said it can work with non-path traced workloads. they also mentioned that there's a cost to it, so I wonder if it's just not worth the added cost versus a regular denoiser for just one or two effects

timestamped




Hexagons are bestagons

I'm blanking out on where I read it, but I believe CDPR said that they focused on Overdrive first, but will be adding RR to the other RT modes?

 

[ziggyrivers]

You DO.NOT.KNOW.THIS.

So much of PR and announcements has dramatically changed, 20 years ago is irrelevant. It's like saying 10 years ago "Nintendo will never release a Hybrid because since the Gameboy they've always had a handheld and a home console".
Guess what, things change and old practises are not set in stone for eternity.

None of us know when the announcement and release will be but people arguing and being so sure when they do not have a clue is utterly preposterous and really, really boring to keep reading.

Word. If the Switch 2 reveal goes viral on Tiktok, Reels, YouTube and Facebook, Nintendo pretty much has a successful launch day, week and month secured.

 

[Alovon11]

Yes, but the reason they use path-traced games to demo the technology is because in these cases it is replacing five or six separate denoisers for individual RT effects. But RR remains just as expensive if a game is only using, say, RT reflections, and thus only running one denoising pass.

Umm, for Path Tracing it's a singualr denoiser iirc.

A very complicated denoiser, but a singular one.

Byproduct of how Path Tracing works

 

[kvetcha]

Umm, for Path Tracing it's a singualr denoiser iirc.

A very complicated denoiser, but a singular one.

Byproduct of how Path Tracing works

Maybe I misinterpreted what the NVidia engineer on the DF video was saying. He mentioned that in a traditional RT pipeline you might have 3-5 denoisers, and that RR benefits by replacing all of them with a single model that can differentiate the various effects. I assumed he was referring to path tracing but I guess it makes sense that this would mostly apply to individual ray traced effects being applied separately to a frame.

 

[darthdiablo]

I'm calling it. The NG Switch will be named "Switcheroo".

Screenshot this.

 

[Ryoku]

Unfortunately, ray reconstruction is only available with rt overdrive. I suspect the same will be true for Alan Wake 2. A shame since Nvidia said that it should work with non-path traced rt effects. We'll see how the ue5 plug-in works when it gets updated

In the recent Digital Foundry video where they have a virtual roundtable type of discussion with a lead engineer from Nvidia, this question was asked--whether ray reconstruction is only for path-traced games. The response from the engineer was something along the lines of that it is possible and that ray reconstruction will come to individual raytraced effects. It's just that their focus was on quality and so they prioritized overdrive mode while working with CDPR.

 

[Bonejack]

No one with a short summary of Nates podcast yet?

 

[Giancarlo]

Are you guys just picking and choosing what a launch/1st party title is? it launched with the system and it was released by SIE. Of course it was there to try and drive hardware sales, why the hell else would they choose to launch the system with it?

Regardless of sales numbers it still launched with the system. It was a remake of a game from two generations prior.

To reiterate, as I assume we all speak English fairly competently, it is therefore a launch and first party title.

There is clearly a precedent from another company to launch a system with a remake, so it is within the realms of possibility that Nintendo could do that. I’m not saying that they will, but to say things like why would they launch with a remake it’s silly, no one does that, is redundant. Successful sales of software is NOT equal to successful sales of hardware. A good launch title is important, but people will STILL buy new hardware because it’s new and does things better than it’s predecessor. So long as they don’t repeat the horrendous marketing mistakes of the Wii U, which incidentally had fantastic software, they needn’t worry too much.

for the Switch sucessor to be a sucess, the console would need a constant release of amazing game after amazing game(exactly how Nintendo launched Switch)

 

[Paraspikey]

Hello! I'm not sure where to put this, so I'll put it here since it relates to a possible hardware reveal. Like last time, since this is going to be a bit of a long post, I'll provide a TLDR at the end.

--
On August 29th, I posted a big Amiibo post in the old Direct speculation thread, pointing to us getting Metroid, Zelda, Mario, and Smash content in the September Direct due to dated Amiibo restock listings.

Nintendo Direct Speculation |ST6| It’s Prime Time For Some More Wonderful Speculation! (Spoiler Crowd, Remain In This Thread Until The Direct Ends!)

But for real I think a new Star Fox will come in the launch window for Switch 2. I’m hoping they can get it out in the first year. I want that maximum hype for it with a release of a new system. I want it at the switch 2 reveal. Right there with you. I was curious and looked at the total...

famiboards.com

In this post, of course, we didn't get anything like that in the direct, beyond the obvious Mario stuff and the Sora Amiibo.
Today, I looked back at the dated Amiibo, and I got some stuff wrong that made me jump to incomplete guesses. I wanted to make a post correcting myself and presenting the research.

Αποτελέσματα αναζήτησης: amiibo

Αποτελέσματα αναζήτησης: amiibo

www.gameexplorers.gr

This is the Amiibo source for the restock dates.

In this big post, I listed the following:

Some things that were incorrect:

1. The SMB Rosalina and Boo restocks weren't on the 28th. They were for November 10th. Meaning we've yet to see what they connected to. This also means the only thing that was dated was the Smash restocks, which connected to us getting the Sora Amiibo.
2. The Metroid, Zelda, and Odyssey restock were always dated, specifically for November 10th. When I made this list, I had no clue when these restocks were, so I just listed "Fall 2023."
3. The first Smash wave did not relate to new content but rather related to a Sora Amiibo, which is the first time they've ever announced a brand new Amiibo that isn't alongside brand new content.

Since I had no idea that the "Fall 2023" restocks were happening on November 10th, I incorrectly assumed that they were going to be for the fall direct. This, clearly, did not happen. I also mistook the SMB Rosalina and Boo restocks being on the same day as the first Smash wave, but that was not the case.

Despite the speculation not panning out in the direct, this is actually good news. The ONLY Amiibo restock that was dated for the 28th did lead to something, being the first Smash wave. While it wasn't software, it still connected to a Smash thing that proves the Smash team is back together working on something since they need to go back and update the game.
What does this mean?

We should see something relating to Metroid, Zelda, Mario, and Smash around November 10th.
--

How does this relate to new hardware?
There are a few reasons why this relates to new hardware being revealed around this time. For starters, they can't really have any other event in the year where they could possibly show stuff for all of those franchises.
We also have Nintendo's FY earnings report out on November 7th.

In 2016, we got the full NX reveal on October 20th. Their earnings release was a week after, on October 26th.
(Source)

We also know from the recent NatetheHate podcast that March 2024 was talked about, and we know from other reports that Nintendo wanted to get their system out "ASAP."
If that date is the release month, what could launch the system? A 3D Mario is extremely unlikely. The same goes for whatever the next Smash thing is. So what could it be? Well, we have an earlier rumor from Grubb that we should have seen Prime 2 Remastered this year, and we have a random Samus restock on November 10th. This heavily suggests to me that we'll get a Prime 4 reveal later this year, and when they do that, they'll shadowdrop Prime 2 and/or 3 on the eShop.
(Source)

Jeff Grubb also said we should see a hardware reveal by the end of the year. "Late 2023." (There are also multiple other reports suggesting an early 2024 launch; the only thing going against that idea is the Eurogamer report, to my knowledge, anyway.)
(Source)
We also have a 16-day average for Amiibo restocks and the news they connect to. Since the only restock that was actually dated for the 28th was Smash, the 16-day average worked out since we got the Sora Amiibo in the direct. 16 days before November 10th is October 26th, 16 days after November 10th is November 26th.

With the Sora Amiibo panning out, there are too many restocks happening specifically on the 10th for me to ignore. We could also see something on November 7th, the same day as the FY report, since that's the same week as the mass restocks and is not in the same week as any game release.
November 7th is a Tuesday, but they also revealed the OLED on a Tuesday.

2 other things to account for is that the new Amiibo restocks do not have any console branding on them, and they've still yet to announce the first Smash wave... despite them always announcing restocks when they don't relate to anything.

They're also moving up their Mario Kart 8 Bundle, and they have 2 brand new Animal Crossing Switch Lite bundles releasing on October 6th, almost 2 months earlier than usual.

Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

A lot was going on yesterday so maybe this went under the radar. I know Nash Weedle isn't proven to be the greatest source but this does back up some of the Paper Mario and Mario RPG speculation from a few days ago. Let's hope someone else can corroborate this. Translated: "According to...

famiboards.com

This means no sales should be cannibalized since Nintendo is "celebrating the holidays early", according to their own press release.

--
TLDR:
In my Amiibo research, I made assumptions about the stuff being revealed in the September direct due to the lack of knowledge on when most of the restocks were. I also had the error of thinking the SMB Rosalina and Boo restocks were on August 28th. They weren't. They're slated for November 10th.
Currently, nothing else makes sense to be that late into the year beyond a new hardware reveal, something like the NX where they show gameplay on the new system. The only restock that was dated for the 28th was the Smash one, and that DID end up panning out, even if it wasn't software-related.

Based on current patterns, we could see something within the timeframe of October 26th - November 26th. With Nintendo's Earnings Release happening on the 7th, the hardware reveal happening on October 30th - November 7th makes the most amount of sense.

Here is an updated list of definitive dates with Amiibo restocks and what they could relate to.
-August 28th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 1 [Sora Amiibo Reveal]
-November 10th, 2023: Smash Series Restock Wave 2 [New Content tease with new hardware? Sora Amiibo Release Date?]
-November 10th, 2023: SMB Rosalina and Boo Restock [Something Mario? SMRPG?]
-November 10th, 2023: Wedding Mario, Peach, and Bowser Restock [3D Mario tease with new hardware? Something with Odyssey? SMRPG?]
-November 10th, 2023: The Champions, Wolf Link, Archer Link, and Links Awakening Link [Something else Zelda? BOTW Demo reveal with new hardware? Zelda/Ganon Amiibo?)
-November 10th, 2023: Metroid Line Samus [Metroid Prime 4 Re-reveal alongside a hardware reveal] (There's not much else this could even be for)

My hope is that people do not dismiss the entire theory due to it not panning out in the Nintendo Direct. That assumption was due to me not knowing when the dates of the Amiibo restocks were. Now that I know, it's clear to me that we should see something around the given timeframe. The only thing that makes sense, again, is a new hardware reveal.
--

Thank you for reading; if you did, something weird is clearly going on, and I hope with this updated information, people can take the theory seriously since the reason why it didn't pan out when I thought at first was due to me making assumptions on dates. I would also like to apologize for getting possible hopes up, specifically about Smash and Metroid in the last direct. Speculation fails sometimes due to incomplete information, and that is exactly what happened with the direct. Now that I have more accurate information, I hope this will be a more accurate conclusion.

I wanted to bring up two other things that are a bit weird now.

1. Capcom just got done with their TGS 2023 show, yet they didn't show anything new, despite the fact they have an unannounced game expected to sell "millions" by the "end of March 2024."

Capcom planning to release game ‘which will sell millions’ by end of March 2024

Bloomberg journalist Takashi Mochizuki says that Capcom is planning to announce a new game which the company is assured to sell millions of copies of by March 2024. It is not clear which franchise the…

mynintendonews.com

They seem to be going all out with Monster Hunter stuff currently for its 20th Anniversary, which they say will be celebrated on March 11th.
Since Monster Hunter is a Nintendo timed exclusive IF this unannounced game is Monster Hunter, them saving it to reveal when Nintendo reveals their next generation makes a ton of sense. They don't have much time to announce it and then release it. Announcing it at TGA is completely possible, but it would be weird since that would only give it a 3-month marketing campaign.

Edit: Monster Hunter portable games seemingly are timed exclusive. Numbered games are still multi-platform. Either way, it would be weird to announce it at TGA and only have a 3-month marketing campaign when Rise got 7 months' worth of marketing before release. It's weird for them to set up such an announcement at their TGS show without... actually announcing anything.

Edit 2 (the sequel): https://famiboards.com/threads/futu...ts-before-commenting.55/page-1718#post-837333
There is apparently no evidence that Capcom will release a game that'll sell "millions" by the end of March 2024.
A reveal is completely possible, though a release is not likely at all. The person who claimed this is most likely mistaken.
It could be a Switch 2 game, though nothing suggests the absence of any new announcements at TGS is directly related to a new hardware reveal.

2. Nintendo Live is apparently happening in Hong Kong and Taipei. They announced it last night in such short notice.

Nintendo Live 2023 announced for Hong Kong and Taipei

We'll do it live...twice!

gonintendo.com

It's happening in Hong Kong on November 11th - 12th
It's happening in Taipei on November 25th - 26th
Very weird timing, considering that after WarioWare, their releases only consist of remakes beyond the Peach game, which isn't launching for another 5 months. They could very well have something before both of these dates. It seems weird to me to do this at all if they weren't going to have something around this time.

 

[Truno]

No one with a short summary of Nates podcast yet?

Let Dakhil cook

 

[MSnap]

I'm calling it. The NG Switch will be named "Switcheroo".

Screenshot this.

It will be called Henry

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

My expectations for the Switch's launch lineup

At launch (September 2024)

3D Mario Next (exclusive)
New casual IP (exclusive)
Cyberpunk 2077
EA FC
NBA 2K
Street Fighter 6
Genshin Impact


Within 9 months of launch:

Mario Party Next
Pokemon Legends Unova
Metroid Prime 4
EPD Tokyo 2D platformer
FF7R 1+I+2
Resident Evil 7+8
Assassin's Creed Red
Elden Ring
Mass Effect Trilogy
Rainbow Six Siege
Call of Duty Warzone

I think Sega would like to release something for the launch window too so maybe something SMT-related? I don't think non-Atlus Sega has anything interesting they could release here.

Could also see Monster Hunter being in this window but I don't know how aggressive Capcom wants their release schedule on the Switch 2 to be.

 

[darthdiablo]

No one with a short summary of Nates podcast yet?

Went over Direct (Wonder, Peach, Paper Mario, FZero 99, etc), validity of colored buttons rumor, what's up with Metroid Prime 4 (also mentioning remastered MP2&3), (very briefly) chatter about March. Hope I didn't miss anything or misremembered.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I wanted to bring up two other things that are a bit weird now.

1. Capcom just got done with their TGS 2023 show, yet they didn't show anything new, despite the fact they have an unannounced game expected to sell "millions" by the "end of March 2024."

Capcom planning to release game ‘which will sell millions’ by end of March 2024

Bloomberg journalist Takashi Mochizuki says that Capcom is planning to announce a new game which the company is assured to sell millions of copies of by March 2024. It is not clear which franchise the…

mynintendonews.com

They seem to be going all out with Monster Hunter stuff currently for its 20th Anniversary, which they say will be celebrated on March 11th.
Since Monster Hunter is a Nintendo timed exclusive IF this unannounced game is Monster Hunter, them saving it to reveal when Nintendo reveals their next generation makes a ton of sense. They don't have much time to announce it and then release it. Announcing it at TGA is completely possible, but it would be weird since that would only give it a 3-month marketing campaign.

2. Nintendo Live is apparently happening in Hong Kong and Taipei. They announced it last night in such short notice.

Nintendo Live 2023 announced for Hong Kong and Taipei

We'll do it live...twice!

gonintendo.com

It's happening in Hong Kong on the 11th - 12th
It's happening in Taipei on the 25th - 26th
Very weird timing, considering that after WarioWare, their releases only consist of remakes beyond the Peach game, which isn't launching for another 5 months. They could very well have something before both of these dates. It seems weird to me to do this at all if they weren't going to have something around this time.

Late October/Early November reveal trailer, blowout events and March release?

 

[Mirev]

It's happening in Hong Kong on the 11th - 12th
It's happening in Taipei on the 25th - 26th
Very weird timing, considering that after WarioWare, their releases only consist of remakes beyond the Peach game, which isn't launching for another 5 months. They could very well have something before both of these dates. It seems weird to me to do this at all if they weren't going to have something around this time.

I still think there's a room for Metroid Prime 2/3 Remasterd by the end of 2023

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I wanted to bring up two other things that are a bit weird now.

1. Capcom just got done with their TGS 2023 show, yet they didn't show anything new, despite the fact they have an unannounced game expected to sell "millions" by the "end of March 2024."

Capcom planning to release game ‘which will sell millions’ by end of March 2024

Bloomberg journalist Takashi Mochizuki says that Capcom is planning to announce a new game which the company is assured to sell millions of copies of by March 2024. It is not clear which franchise the…

mynintendonews.com

They seem to be going all out with Monster Hunter stuff currently for its 20th Anniversary, which they say will be celebrated on March 11th.
Since Monster Hunter is a Nintendo timed exclusive IF this unannounced game is Monster Hunter, them saving it to reveal when Nintendo reveals their next generation makes a ton of sense. They don't have much time to announce it and then release it. Announcing it at TGA is completely possible, but it would be weird since that would only give it a 3-month marketing campaign.

2. Nintendo Live is apparently happening in Hong Kong and Taipei. They announced it last night in such short notice.

Nintendo Live 2023 announced for Hong Kong and Taipei

We'll do it live...twice!

gonintendo.com

It's happening in Hong Kong on the 11th - 12th
It's happening in Taipei on the 25th - 26th
Very weird timing, considering that after WarioWare, their releases only consist of remakes beyond the Peach game, which isn't launching for another 5 months. They could very well have something before both of these dates. It seems weird to me to do this at all if they weren't going to have something around this time.

The report about "a game that will sell millions" is clearly wrong based on their financial expectations. Capcom doesn't expect to sell very much more physical software in Japan before April 2024. The reporter clearly misheard something (as no one else reported this and he gave no source for where he got the information)

 

[darthdiablo]

I wanted to bring up two other things that are a bit weird now.

1. Capcom just got done with their TGS 2023 show, yet they didn't show anything new, despite the fact they have an unannounced game expected to sell "millions" by the "end of March 2024."

Capcom planning to release game ‘which will sell millions’ by end of March 2024

Bloomberg journalist Takashi Mochizuki says that Capcom is planning to announce a new game which the company is assured to sell millions of copies of by March 2024. It is not clear which franchise the…

mynintendonews.com

They seem to be going all out with Monster Hunter stuff currently for its 20th Anniversary, which they say will be celebrated on March 11th.
Since Monster Hunter is a Nintendo timed exclusive IF this unannounced game is Monster Hunter, them saving it to reveal when Nintendo reveals their next generation makes a ton of sense. They don't have much time to announce it and then release it. Announcing it at TGA is completely possible, but it would be weird since that would only give it a 3-month marketing campaign.

2. Nintendo Live is apparently happening in Hong Kong and Taipei. They announced it last night in such short notice.

Nintendo Live 2023 announced for Hong Kong and Taipei

We'll do it live...twice!

gonintendo.com

It's happening in Hong Kong on the 11th - 12th
It's happening in Taipei on the 25th - 26th
Very weird timing, considering that after WarioWare, their releases only consist of remakes beyond the Peach game, which isn't launching for another 5 months. They could very well have something before both of these dates. It seems weird to me to do this at all if they weren't going to have something around this time.

 

[Lugia667]

this thread is moving so fast when nothing is happening atm lol

 

[Bonejack]

I wanted to bring up two other things that are a bit weird now.

1. Capcom just got done with their TGS 2023 show, yet they didn't show anything new, despite the fact they have an unannounced game expected to sell "millions" by the "end of March 2024."

Capcom planning to release game ‘which will sell millions’ by end of March 2024

Bloomberg journalist Takashi Mochizuki says that Capcom is planning to announce a new game which the company is assured to sell millions of copies of by March 2024. It is not clear which franchise the…

mynintendonews.com

They seem to be going all out with Monster Hunter stuff currently for its 20th Anniversary, which they say will be celebrated on March 11th.
Since Monster Hunter is a Nintendo timed exclusive IF this unannounced game is Monster Hunter, them saving it to reveal when Nintendo reveals their next generation makes a ton of sense. They don't have much time to announce it and then release it. Announcing it at TGA is completely possible, but it would be weird since that would only give it a 3-month marketing campaign.

2. Nintendo Live is apparently happening in Hong Kong and Taipei. They announced it last night in such short notice.

Nintendo Live 2023 announced for Hong Kong and Taipei

We'll do it live...twice!

gonintendo.com

It's happening in Hong Kong on the 11th - 12th
It's happening in Taipei on the 25th - 26th
Very weird timing, considering that after WarioWare, their releases only consist of remakes beyond the Peach game, which isn't launching for another 5 months. They could very well have something before both of these dates. It seems weird to me to do this at all if they weren't going to have something around this time.

Little thing about 1. here.

As of now, outside of me (and others) wishing for it, there's no indication MH 6 / World 2 will be on ReDraketed. It sure will be multiplatform on PC, PS5 and Series.

You can't say that MH is a timed Nintendo exclusive, you could've only said that for Rise.

I don't see MH 6 / World 2 being locked to any of the big three. It's big enough to carry it's own weight, so an announcement at the TGA's or the 20th anniversary in March 2024 is the most likely outcome.

 

[Lugia667]

Nintendo Live is not indicative of anything btw....they said what's there

Both Nintendo Live 2023 events will include game demo booths, photo areas, merch opportunities, and tournaments for Splatoon 3 and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I would guess that Capcom briefly said "we'll announce a game that will sell millions in March 2024" and the Bloomberg reporter misheard it.

As Capcom is almost certainly announcing the next Monster Hunter game in March 2024.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Nate is wondering about the colored buttons?

 

[Alovon11]

In the recent Digital Foundry video where they have a virtual roundtable type of discussion with a lead engineer from Nvidia, this question was asked--whether ray reconstruction is only for path-traced games. The response from the engineer was something along the lines of that it is possible and that ray reconstruction will come to individual raytraced effects. It's just that their focus was on quality and so they prioritized overdrive mode while working with CDPR.

Yeah, likely moreso a time thing for HybridRT Ray Reconstruction.

As unlike Path Tracing/RT Overdrive, you have to sort of rework the render pipeline a bit with RR enabled to make it so it only launches the single RR instance versus the separate denoisers for each individual RT Element in HybridRT.

 

[P4bl0]

If they want to kill themself, totally yeah!

BREAKING: Nintendo is going bankrupt after releasing a beautiful Super Mario remake as a launch title

I can see this happening with the Nintendoom rebrand

 

[Alovon11]

Little thing about 1. here.

As of now, outside of me (and others) wishing for it, there's no indication MH 6 / World 2 will be on ReDraketed. It sure will be multiplatform on PC, PS5 and Series.

You can't say that MH is a timed Nintendo exclusive, you could've only said that for Rise.

I don't see MH 6 / World 2 being locked to any of the big three. It's big enough to carry it's own weight, so an announcement at the TGA's or the 20th anniversary in March 2024 is the most likely outcome.

Yeah, def feel MH6 will probably be announced ahead of March, likely at TGAs, or maybe revealed alongside Switch 2's announcement so they can just be like "It's on all platforms, including the Nintendo Switch 2!"

Seriously though, I feel Capcom does not get how to do Anniversary announcements for long-lived popular franchises like this.

 

[darthdiablo]

Nate is wondering about the colored buttons?

More of talking about the validity of rumors. That's my take anyway.

 

[redmutineer75]

I think Sega would like to release something for the launch window too so maybe something SMT-related? I don't think non-Atlus Sega has anything interesting they could release here.

If it's Atlus, it has to be Persona 3 Reload.