sorry kid but even if they're joking mondo is 100% smarter than you, and 110% smarter than meMore like 2024 at the latest
I genuinely hate when my fringe opinions get turned into "why does everybody think X?" See also @Magic-Man's thread in which he called New Horizons controversialThis thread was prompted by a few posts in the general discussion thread but it doesn't seem to be a widespread belief, yeah.
Dane is probably going to be similar to Game Boy Color - it will be a fair bit more powerful than the current hardware, will feature a relatively large number of exclusive titles, but will not be marketed or reported by Nintendo as an actual successor.Of course I'm not doubting that Switch will have a successor, but I think 2022 is too late for a "Switch Pro" and too soon for a "Switch 2". But we'll see, as trying to predict Nintendo moves is useless.
Why does everybody think JFK Jr is going to be resurrected at the spot where his dad was killed, goshI genuinely hate when my fringe opinions get turned into "why does everybody think X?" See also @Magic-Man's thread in which he called New Horizons controversial
I genuinely hate when my fringe opinions get turned into "why does everybody think X?" See also @Magic-Man's thread in which he called New Horizons controversial
Switch 2 will launch in March just like the first one.BOTW2 will be well before the launch at October 2023. Mario Kart X (Tour is MK9) will be the big crossgen game. Mario Odyssey 2 might be in launch window or before.
Unless Nintendo is really in this for the long haul, first party support in 2027 is probably going to largely depend on how Pokémon aligns.I was thinking first-party, actually. Ubisoft can keep shitting out Just Dance games for base Switch as long as the Switch ecosystem is still around and the current model still accepts the same type of physical media. They kept making them for Wii until NoA would no longer distribute Wii games.
This is kind of a cherry picked view of things. Nintendo dropping a system right when its successor releases is only really a thing that ever happened on the console side of their business.We're only "afraid" because people have convinced themselves a successor of some sorts is releasing literally tomorrow, and of course if that successor releases literally tomorrow Nintendo is going to drop support for base Switch yesterday.
The reality is that regardless of when the alleged successor comes out, we have a pretty packed release calendar for next year and likely beyond. This is a self inflicted panic over rumors and unconfirmed stuff.
I would guess closer to 7 for the Switch, which is more in line with HD console lifespans outside of the Wii U, for obvious reasons.Seems like most high-selling Nintendo consoles have a lifespan of 6 years or so. With that said, I think we'll get Switch support for a few years. Definitely not a "hard-end" in 2022 lol
We've seen data suggesting that the install base is mostly in their 20s.While I definitely don't think the transition will be that drastic or sudden, Nintendo does make a much larger percentage of its profits from hardware than its contemporaries do. In fact didn't hardware outstrip software just barely in the last report? That's why I don't think they're gonna sit on the Switch for super long. I could see support slowing down in 2023. An install base that's long in the tooth isn't as engaged.
Why you gotta call me out like this lolI genuinely hate when my fringe opinions get turned into "why does everybody think X?" See also @Magic-Man's thread in which he called New Horizons controversial
The dedicated hardware segment of the games industry has always abandoned a flourishing install base to release new hardware and there’s a reason they do it. The best-selling hardware of all time, PS2, was replaced by new hardware while it was regularly achieving hardware and software sales milestones. To expect Switch to be the exception to this rule does not seem at all realistic, nor is it realistic to expect Switch to be the next Game Boy that gets consistent high levels of software support from major publishers and Nintendo for over 10 years.So much money is being made through the install base of the current Switch that neither Nintendo nor others will move on from software support soon.
There seem to be some third parties who have games that will only ship on more powerful hardware, but I'd expect that to be a tiny minority of the software available on Switch. They might be high profile games, sure. If we look at Nintendo's latest financials, Switch remains the driving force of almost their entire revenue stream and that means continuing to support the base hardware with games. We're also seeing the software market shift so that third parties are capturing a greater share year on year, which means that software support will continue, too.
I don't think the concern/discussion is powered by the fear that Switch will be dropped entirely; I think people are more confused and speculative as to what exactly it is that's coming next.
I don't disagree. I didn't say how long I expect Switch software support to continue, nor did I say I didn't expect new hardware.It’s needless manufactured panic. I don’t expect software support for Switch to last as long as some folks do (I’ve heard talk of people suggesting it’ll last into the 2030s), nor do I expect it to drop off a cliff like some others do (which seems to be what motivates a lot of this angst over new hardware), and the OP is right to suggest that indies will continue to have a viable platform to release games on for the foreseeable future. There’s a middle ground here. I’ve anticipated a Q1 2023 release for new hardware for some time now, but I expect some level of 1st party support only through to mid-2024, with mid-tier Japanese 3rd parties dropping off in 2025/2026 and indies continuing along for as long as they’re permitted to. That being said…
The dedicated hardware segment of the games industry has always abandoned a flourishing install base to release new hardware and there’s a reason they do it. The best-selling hardware of all time, PS2, was replaced by new hardware while it was regularly achieving hardware and software sales milestones. To expect Switch to be the exception to this rule does not seem at all realistic, nor is it realistic to expect Switch to be the next Game Boy that gets consistent high levels of software support from major publishers and Nintendo for over 10 years.
One of those reasons to release new hardware in spite of install base is to support developer ambitions, both internally and externally. If their software can’t release on hardware without pulling teeth, calls for new hardware begin and grow until you either release new hardware or they will sell their wares on a platform that will support their ambitions. Install base is only a portion of the equation for any release; if it were the only consideration, Switch would receive every software title from every publisher that has not been bought as an exclusive.
I wasn't referencing the actual players. I meant that a system's install base becomes less engaged the older a system gets.We've seen data suggesting that the install base is mostly in their 20s.
I suppose it all depends on how you define "soon" in the sentence "neither Nintendo nor others will move on from [Switch] software support soon", I guess. Some might consider early 2023 as "soon", after all, depending on if they believe Switch's life cycle of software support is going to be extended out to a full decade, as some do.I don't disagree. I didn't say how long I expect Switch software support to continue, nor did I say I didn't expect new hardware.
It’s needless manufactured panic. I don’t expect software support for Switch to last as long as some folks do (I’ve heard talk of people suggesting it’ll last into the 2030s), nor do I expect it to drop off a cliff like some others do (which seems to be what motivates a lot of this angst over new hardware), and the OP is right to suggest that indies will continue to have a viable platform to release games on for the foreseeable future. There’s a middle ground here. I’ve anticipated a Q1 2023 release for new hardware for some time now, but I expect some level of 1st party support only through to mid-2024, with mid-tier Japanese 3rd parties dropping off in 2025/2026 and indies continuing along for as long as they’re permitted to. That being said…
The dedicated hardware segment of the games industry has always abandoned a flourishing install base to release new hardware and there’s a reason they do it. The best-selling hardware of all time, PS2, was replaced by new hardware while it was regularly achieving hardware and software sales milestones. To expect Switch to be the exception to this rule does not seem at all realistic, nor is it realistic to expect Switch to be the next Game Boy that gets consistent high levels of software support from major publishers and Nintendo for over 10 years.
One of those reasons to release new hardware in spite of install base is to support developer ambitions, both internally and externally. If their software can’t release on hardware without pulling teeth, calls for new hardware begin and grow until you either release new hardware or they will sell their wares on a platform that will support their ambitions. Install base is only a portion of the equation for any release; if it were the only consideration, Switch would receive every software title from every publisher that has not been bought as an exclusive.
Gotta be where the middleware tools are going. UE5 will have Switch support, but Epic has yet to confirm that it will support UE5 features that people actually want UE5 for, like Nanite and Lumen. It's not about where their competitors are going, it's where the software is going, which is even further out of reach than it already is, including software in Japan. DQXII is confirmed to be a UE5 game and I doubt Nanite and Lumen won't get used, given all the advantages those tools provide.I don't disagree with you, but I don't think the PS2 should be directly compared to the Switch. Undeniably the PS2 was shattering records, but it had had huge price cuts by the time its successor was released. Did it not get a $100 price cut about two years after release? Maybe I'm misremembering.
I also think the PS2 had more direct competitors than the Switch does. Sure, it crushed them, but it was much less guaranteed that its successor would also be the winner. The 360 was obviously going to be competing for market share with the PS3.
The Switch is much more unique compared to Microsoft and Sony machines of this day and age. I assume Switch 2 is also going to be handheld. They've also dropped out of the hardware tech race, so there isn't the same urgency to react to what their competitors are doing. And they will always have (in my opinion) by far and away the best first party games.
What was my point again? Oh, year. Nintendo are bizarre, unpredictable, infuriating at times and capable of utterly fantastic games and machines. The PS2 might be an indicator of how they'll support their console. But it's no less likely they'll tear up the rulebook.
Well I was responding to the OP directly - who was asking why people would expect support to dry up or even stop within the next couple of years. That's the context for what I was saying there.I suppose it all depends on how you define "soon" in the sentence "neither Nintendo nor others will move on from [Switch] software support soon", I guess. Some might consider early 2023 as "soon", after all, depending on if they believe Switch's life cycle of software support is going to be extended out to a full decade, as some do.
It is the name of the chip for the next Switch reportedly gearing up for release in 2022. It could be the Super Switch, Switch 4K, Switch 2 whatever. That’s unknown. It has exclusive games in development and features DLSS to upscale games.
I personally also think the chip shortage will push the launch to early 2023, but as of now reportedly it is gearing up for late 2022. I didn’t want to muddle the info with my opinion.Earliest next gen Switch could be released is end of next year, but with all chip shortages we now most likely talk about 2023. release.
I personally also think the chip shortage will push the launch to early 2023, but as of now reportedly it is gearing up for late 2022. I didn’t want to muddle the info with my opinion.
More like 2024 at the latest
Also let's not forget their most celebrated game was cross gen with PS3 in 2017! Which I'm thankful to because the only way I could play P5 was on my brother's PS3.Don't underestimate ATLUS, they made Vita games in 2019.
Gotta be where the middleware tools are going. UE5 will have Switch support, but Epic has yet to confirm that it will support UE5 features that people actually want UE5 for, like Nanite and Lumen. It's not about where their competitors are going, it's where the software is going, which is even further out of reach than it already is, including software in Japan. DQXII is confirmed to be a UE5 game and I doubt Nanite and Lumen won't get used, given all the advantages those tools provide.
That is to say, just because Nintendo isn't reaching the same technical capacity as Sony or Microsoft doesn't mean there's no urgency and nothing to react to. 3rd-party software is doing really well on the platform and they have a lot of solid momentum there, the last thing Nintendo wants is to whiff that yet again and end up starting from square one for the... 3rd time(?), instead of working to keep that good easy money from 3rd-party royalties right where they want it. They may not get a release of every game or anything like that, but more is always preferable to less.
Nanite is an Unreal Engine 5 feature that, for laymen, allows developers to drop precision-detailed objects into a game while the engine renders only as much detail of the scene as the eye can perceive, trimming down polygons to render objects in the most efficient manner that is possible with the tool. This means it will save developers a LOT of time optimizing how to render a scene when they don't need to fiddle nearly as much with polygon counts and worry about things like pop-in as much, as the engine is doing more of the heavy lifting.I have no idea what those software terms are. You could have said Marmite and Lemon for all that means to me. I'll take your word for that.
The GBA was “retired” halfway through year 4 when it was selling around 20 million+ hardware units per year. Software for that system from Nintendo dried up the year that the DS was released in North America.Aside from the fact people think Nintendo’s gonna retire their system selling 25mil units during year 5 in year 6 are all supreme fucking idiots, its nonsensical from the developmental standpoint. There’s usually a reason the last years of a Nintendo system are a bit try: so they can have a bunch of games ready for the new system*!
You don’t release two ultra-massive sellers right before a new system releases, assuring those dev teams aren’t putting anything out until 3 years into the system’s life cycle. Come on now.
*excluding the Wii U lmao
The DS what somewhat of a panic move because Nintendo was done if the PSP was about to dominate the handheld space in the same way than the PS2 did for home consoles. They didn’t think the GBA by itself would be able to compete with a new handheld that could play games that were comparable to what was available on current home consoles, as well as music and movies. The Switch isn’t really comparable to the GBA because it has no competitionThe GBA was “retired” halfway through year 4 when it was selling around 20 million+ hardware units per year. Software for that system from Nintendo dried up the year that the DS was released in North America.
And, as you might recall, before anyone knew about BotW being cross-platform, people made the same statements about it, how it was being “marooned” or “sent out to die” at the tail end of the Wii U and how it meant no new Zelda game for new hardware for several years. We just had a thread about someone gloating over how wrong everyone was when he predicted it right.
Let’s just say that if new hardware is announced next year for a March 2023 release with some cross-gen releases in tow, you won’t catch me acting the least bit surprised.
The Switch has piles of competition in the mobile space. It's not a comparable situation, definitely, but the Switch exists partially because dedicated handhelds were already getting pushed out by high powered phones and tablets backed by the Apple storeThe DS what somewhat of a panic move because Nintendo was done if the PSP was about to dominate the handheld space in the same way than the PS2 did for home consoles. They didn’t think the GBA by itself would be able to compete with a new handheld that could play games that were comparable to what was available on current home consoles, as well as music and movies. The Switch isn’t really comparable to the GBA because it has no competition
This thread was prompted by a few posts in the general discussion thread but it doesn't seem to be a widespread belief, yeah.
Steam Deck Is absolutely eyeing the same value proposition as Switch. And whether people understand this or not, despite not being hybrids like Switch, PS5 and Xbox Series are absolutely competing devices, for both a consumer’s dollars and their attention. I’ve argued this for some time, unique feature sets do not mean it has no competition, its unique features just become part of its value proposition against other solutions that don’t have feature parity.The DS what somewhat of a panic move because Nintendo was done if the PSP was about to dominate the handheld space in the same way than the PS2 did for home consoles. They didn’t think the GBA by itself would be able to compete with a new handheld that could play games that were comparable to what was available on current home consoles, as well as music and movies. The Switch isn’t really comparable to the GBA because it has no competition
Posts in the main thread prompted me writing the post, but I fleshed it out more and posted it as its own thread after thinking back on a few other threads that have been made such as the will Switch survive thread and third party support thread that keep pointing to this anxiety around support for 2023 in particular. That 2023 will be barren after 2022’s high as a result of Dane and other factors. I’m not sure how widespread the fear/anxiety is, but I have heard it regularly come up beyond these boards as well due to the end of past Nintendo consoles and since all the long term prospect games, the ones we wait years for, will all be out in 2022 aside from Metroid Prime 4 (should Breath of the Wild 2 not get delayed). I think we have had some healthy discussion here so far and hopefully allayed some fears/anxiety however conscious or not they were.Should have stuck to that conversation instead of creating a new thread, then.