Sales Data Updated sales numbers for Switch titles: Tears of the Kingdom (18.51M), and more (UPDATE: new sales numbers for many other games, see threadmarks)

[Galgavias]

Those numbers don't make sense like wtf?

That's absolutely crazy on Zelda's part. It took BoTW from 2017-present to hit 31 million.

This report is about a month old so that means ToTK is sitting around 20 million sold in a matter of months.

It might clear BoTW by the end of the year. Holy shit.

TOTK still has a huge task to reel in BOTW (let's not forget BOTW sold 2 million odd on Wii U + it's not like that game will stop selling either), but the fact it's going to probably not be far off is a huge achievement in itself.

 

[Lugia667]

have BOTW and TOTK outsold the rest of the franchise combined? If not they are probably damn close to it

 

[curl-6]

Breath of the Wild sold around 17.4 million as of March 2020, so Tears has sold more in a month and a half than BOTW did in 3 years.

 

[Bonejack]

I hope for Ring Fit Adventure 2 they improve the tracking with the IR because it's truly awful at times. Nothing worse than trying to do an exercise and the game inexplicably giving you low points despite following their form instructions to the letter.

After having to redo a Plank exercise two times just yesterday ... i hear your. I hear you!

 

[JR436]

I can’t wait for “Princess Peach will star as the main character in a brand new game (temp)” in 2024. Going to be rad!

I truly love Nintendo sometimes. They're so weird.

 

[Mekanos]

have BOTW and TOTK outsold the rest of the franchise combined? If not they are probably damn close to it

If you remove BOTW and TOTK the estimated sales for the Zelda series is ~100 million, so nowhere near close to that. Zelda had a ton of strong sellers before BOTW, very few series have over a dozen games that have sold over 3 million each.

 

[Rooster]

Just in terms of on the Switch, I don't think TotK is overtaking BotW.

But if it does, it'd be the first time the second Zelda sold better than the first on the console.

 

[zumaddy]

I knew it would be good, but 18 million for TOTK is amazing.

 

[Kreese]

TOTK is definitely gonna be more frontloaded than BOTW was, it launched on a system with a userbase of over 100 million. There's no guarantee it will pass BOTW by the end of it all.

This makes no sense because TOTK is not going to stop selling.

It will probably continue with even longer and larger legs than BOTW because people will be buying it as the new big Zelda game until the next one is released and the popularity of the franchise just keeps growing (and it will sell on Switch and the successor).

As it stands it's selling much faster than BOTW.

 

[Galgavias]

I guess just "Princess Peach Game" wasn't enough lol

Untitled Peach Game...where she is joined by a horrible goose which she unleashes on Bowser as revenge for all the kidnappings.

 

[Bonejack]

Untitled Peach Game...where she is joined by a horrible goose which she unleashes on Bowser as revenge for all the kidnappings.

Peaches Peaches Peaches Peache... HONK

 

[Mekanos]

This makes no sense because TOTK is not going to stop selling.

It will probably continue with even longer and larger legs than BOTW because people will buying it as the Zelda game until the next one is released and the popularity just keeps growing (on Switch and the successor).

This assumes growth is exponential which is far from proven. BOTW was a game that people bought for years alongside new Switch units. TOTK released close to the peak of the Switch's userbase and there's no guarantee either that it will continue to sell as an evergreen as a BC title. It's far too early to declare if TOTK will outsell BOTW, especially when BOTW is still selling around a million each quarter.

 

[Kreese]

This assumes growth is exponential which is far from proven. BOTW was a game that people bought for years alongside new Switch units. TOTK released close to the peak of the Switch's userbase and there's no guarantee either that it will continue to sell as an evergreen as a BC title. It's far too early to declare if TOTK will outsell BOTW, especially when BOTW is still selling around a million each quarter.

TOTK reached 18.5 million in under 2 months and it took BOTW until 2020 (3 years on the market) to reach that. It's easily a bigger release and will be throughout its entire long legged lifecycle on both the Switch and its successor.

 

[Mekanos]

TOTK reached 18.5 million in under 2 months and it took BOTW until 2020 (3 years on the market) to reach that. It's easily a bigger release and will be throughout its entire long legged lifecycle on both the Switch and its successor.

You understand that BOTW did not launch on a system with 100 million users, right?

 

[7threst]

Jesus Christ.

The plumber should be thankful he has his karting pastime, because there’s genuinely a chance mainline Zelda has become a bigger juggernaut than mainline Mario.

Like… I don’t see Wonder outdoing this. It’s going to soar past Odyssey too, we haven’t even hit its first holiday.

You can’t even make the Wonder will outleg it argument, because BotW is an extremely leggy title

Eh, Zelda is doing great nowadays and is a total seller by today's standards, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The Mario brand hasn't been as strong as it is today in years, part thanks to the movie. Mario Wonder will do very well this holiday season.

 

[grobla123]

So the next Zelda will differently have a new meme-able, social media sharable style user-creation experience like building/fusing right, you cannot deny the sales impact.

 

[LukasManak22]

TotK can't be stopped

 

[Bonejack]

TotK can't be stopped

 

[Kreese]

You understand that BOTW did not launch on a system with 100 million users, right?

Which is another reason why TOTK will go on to sell far more than BOTW.

It will still be selling Switch 2's like MK8 and many other Wii U era Nintendo games are selling Switch's.

TOTK will be probably be on the charts for the next decade.

 

[Irene]

Talent wins.

 

[Mekanos]

Which is another reason why TOTK will go on to sell far more than BOTW.

It will still be selling Switch 2's like MK8 and many other Wii U era Nintendo games were selling Switch's.

This is a comparison that makes no sense, Wii U was a dead console that sold like shit, for 95% of Switch buyers those ports were new games, the same won't be true of the Switch 2 userbase which will have a strong continuity with the Switch 1 userbase.

Check in with me in 6 years to see if TOTK is selling a million every quarter like BOTW is now.

 

[SpaceGodzilla]

Check in with me in 6 years to see if TOTK is selling a million every quarter like BOTW is now.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

TOTK reached 18.5 million in under 2 months and it took BOTW until 2020 (3 years on the market) to reach that. It's easily a bigger release and will be throughout its entire long legged lifecycle on both the Switch and its successor.

What an absurd comparison.

I would love to hear how you suggest BOTW should have done the same as TOTK when it had to actually build the switch market. You understand that after 2 years only ~34m switch units had been sold, right?

 

[Hajeman]

TOTK is definitely gonna be more frontloaded than BOTW was, it launched on a system with a userbase of over 100 million. There's no guarantee it will pass BOTW by the end of it all.

Why always said frontloaded thing ? Same with Mario Movie also said it's frontloaded but it's not. It's sold so many in coming weeks & months after launch. Lol

 

[Kreese]

This is a comparison that makes no sense, Wii U was a dead console that sold like shit, for 95% of Switch buyers those ports were new games, the same won't be true of the Switch 2 userbase which will have a strong continuity with the Switch 1 userbase.

Check in with me in 6 years to see if TOTK is selling a million every quarter like BOTW is now.

TOTK and the growing popularity of the Zelda franchise is the important part here. Assuming that the game won't put up bigger numbers than BOTW did on the Wii U + Switch than TOTK will on Switch + Switch 2 has no ground in logic whatsoever considering how much faster TOTK is selling,

What an absurd comparison.

I would love to hear how you suggest BOTW should have done the same as TOTK when it had to actually build the switch market. You understand that after 2 years only ~34m switch units had been sold, right?

What is absurd about it?

If anything TOTK launching on a platform with a much larger userbase than BOTW did when it launched it going to help it blow by BOTW's LTD in the end.

 

[Kreese]

DP

 

[Mekanos]

TOTK and the growing popularity of the Zelda franchise is the important part here. Assuming that the game won't put up bigger numbers than BOTW did on the Wii U + Switch than TOTK will on Switch + Switch 2 has no ground in logic whatsoever considering how much faster TOTK is selling,

TOTK is selling faster because the userbase of the Switch is magnitudes bigger than it was during BOTW, this has already been established.

I don't know what this low effort meme is supposed to convey when I think TOTK is a far better game than BOTW.

 

[Kreese]

TOTK is selling faster because the userbase of the Switch is magnitudes bigger than it was during BOTW, this has already been established.

Ultimately, there are numerous reasons why TOTK is selling faster than BOTW and all of them will lead to it eventually blowing by BOTW's ltd.

The main reason though is that franchise is rapidly growing in popularity.

 

[9-Volt]

Poor Advance Wars... I thought it would pass 1.5m easily with all that publicity. Nintendo needs to push lesser known IP's even harder.

 

[TanookiTom]

Poor Advance Wars... I thought it would pass 1.5m easily with all that publicity. Nintendo needs to push lesser known IP's even harder.

I think after the delay resulting from the Ruzzian attack on Ukraine we are kinda lucky it released at all and it feels like they just wanted to get it out of the gate without much fanfare... which makes sense to me. I wouldn't count on seeing another AW anytime soon though.

 

[VLQ]

 

[AngryAlchemist]

It will probably continue with even longer and larger legs than BOTW because people will be buying it as the new big Zelda game until the next one is released and the popularity of the franchise just keeps growing (and it will sell on Switch and the successor).

What people like Mekanos are talking about is that takes like this, while also saying stuff like this:

TOTK reached 18.5 million in under 2 months and it took BOTW until 2020 (3 years on the market) to reach that. It's easily a bigger release and will be throughout its entire long legged lifecycle on both the Switch and its successor.

Show a complete lack of contextualization of sales. I mean, when you say that sales will have "longer and larger legs", while also admitting that Breath of the Wild had lower initial sales, you do you realize you're essentially saying that Tears of the Kingdom's legs will account for the vast majority of Breath of the Wild's sales and more than double Tears of the Kingdom's current sales ... right? Because most of Breath of the Wild's sales were legs. That's why its a bold think to claim and something that requires good arguments to back up.

 

[Rooster]

NH's first year being almost completely vertical is wild lol

 

[Kreese]

What people like Mekanos are talking about is that takes like this, while also saying stuff like this:

Show a complete lack of contextualization of sales. I mean, when you say that sales will have "longer and larger legs", while also admitting that Breath of the Wild had lower initial sales, you do you realize you're essentially saying that Tears of the Kingdom's legs will account for the vast majority of Breath of the Wild's sales and more than double Tears of the Kingdom's current sales ... right? Because most of Breath of the Wild's sales were legs. That's why its a bold think to claim and something that requires good arguments to back up.

It's actually the complete opposite.

TOTK is a bigger game than BOTW, launched to a bigger userbase, has more WOM given the traction of its launch, and the franchise is more popular than ever. All of which will ultimately lead to it being leggier than it's slower selling predecessor.

Suggesting it needs to prove to have BOTW's legs is akin to saying that GTA5 would have to prove to have GTA4's legs when it got off to a much faster start in sales (GTA 5 also launched at the end of PS3/360's lifecycle and wound up selling much more than GTA 4).

Like I said, this will be a game Nintendo consumers will buy in droves for the better part of the next decade. There is nothing to suggest otherwise. Buckle up.

 

[Dcubed]

We're out of colours dammit!

 

[AngryAlchemist]

It's actually the complete opposite.

TOTK is a bigger game than BOTW, launched to a bigger userbase, has more WOM given the traction of its launch, and the franchise is more popular than ever. All of which will ultimately lead to it being leggier than it's slower selling predecessor.

Suggesting it needs to prove to have BOTW's legs is akin to saying that GTA5 would have to prove to have GTA4's legs when it got off to a much faster start in sales (GTA 5 also launched at the end of PS3/360's lifecycle and wound up selling much more than GTA 4).

Like I said, this will be a game Nintendo consumers will buy in droves for the better part of the next decade. Buckle up.

I mean, it's fine if that's your opinion. But then I need to know, are you right now predicting that Tears of the Kingdom will sell 40+ million more units? Because I'm not sure if you get that's what you're implying. Breath of the Wild's first 2 months probably had it selling around 4 million copies including the Wii U version, and considering sales haven't ended it might get to 40m+. Meaning there will probably be a 36m sales gap between the first 2 months vs lifetime. So when you say legs will be better, I'm assuming you mean it will sell more than 36 million additional units from here on out. 40? 45? 50?

 

[mazi]

not this totk vs botw fight...
people will find a way to bring negativity to even the most positive news.

 

[Kreese]

I mean, it's fine if that's your opinion. But then I need to know, are you right now predicting that Tears of the Kingdom will sell 40+ million more units? Because I'm not sure if you get that's what you're implying. Breath of the Wild's first 2 months probably had it selling around 4 million copies including the Wii U version, and considering sales haven't ended it might get to 40m+. Meaning there will probably be a 36m sales gap between the first 2 months vs lifetime. So when you say legs will be better, I'm assuming you mean it will sell more than 36 million additional units from here on out. 40? 45? 50?

I predict TOTK will sell over 50 million copies LTD easily. There is no reason in the world why it wouldn't. The franchises legs are not suddenly stop on its biggest and best entry which has made by far the biggest initial splash yet in the Zelda franchise.

When people pick up a Switch 2, this is still going to be one of the de facto reasons to own one for years to come.

 

[Branduil]

I think it's fine if you want to predict TotK will do like 50 million or something; you might not even be wrong, certainly BotW blew past every prediction I ever had, but it seems weird to insist that people are crazy or salty for thinking it might do a more respectable 15 to 20 million in legs from here. No one knows for sure how TotK's legs will compare to BotW yet.

 

[Mekanos]

I predict TOTK will sell over 50 million copies LTD easily. There is no reason in the world why it wouldn't. The franchises legs are not suddenly stop on its biggest and best entry which has made by far the biggest initial splash yet in the Zelda franchise.

When people pick up a Switch 2, this is still going to be one of the de facto reasons to own one for years to come.

This is just fan hype not rooted in actual numbers or analysis

I say this as someone who has TOTK in their top ten favorite games of all time

 

[AngryAlchemist]

I predict TOTK will sell over 50 million copies LTD easily. There is no reason in the world why it wouldn't. The franchises legs are not suddenly stop on its biggest and best entry which has made by far the biggest initial splash yet in the Zelda franchise.

When people pick up a Switch 2, this is still going to be one of the de facto reasons to own one for years to come.

Ok, just making sure that you know you're basically saying that it will sell at least in the 54m ballpark. If that's your prediction that's fine. Just seemed like a common sales discussion misunderstanding.

I think it's fine if you want to predict TotK will do like 50 million or something; you might not even be wrong, certainly BotW blew past every prediction I ever had, but it seems weird to insist that people are crazy or salty for thinking it might do a more respectable 15 to 20 million in legs from here. No one knows for sure how TotK's legs will compare to BotW yet.

Yeah, this was more my point. Fine to think Totk will have better legs, but weird to insist it to be so.

 

[Kreese]

This is just fan hype not rooted in actual numbers or analysis

I say this as someone who has TOTK in their top ten favorite games of all time

I'm sorry but we do have actual numbers. Whether or not you choose to acknowledge the franchise record smashing launch numbers is immaterial.

I think it's fine if you want to predict TotK will do like 50 million or something; you might not even be wrong, certainly BotW blew past every prediction I ever had, but it seems weird to insist that people are crazy or salty for thinking it might do a more respectable 15 to 20 million in legs from here. No one knows for sure how TotK's legs will compare to BotW yet.

Can you pull my quote where this actually happened? I said no such thing and I'm not sure why you're suggesting I did.

 

[Samus95]

More or less what was expected by Totk sales, more interesed in the white book to know what advance wars did i hope in 90k

 

[Mekanos]

I'm sorry but we do have actual numbers. Whether or not you choose to acknowledge the franchise record smashing launch numbers is immaterial.

Saying it will definitely sell over 50 million because of numbers from a month and a half is fanfiction passed off as speculation

But this is typical of a lot of discussions on this site regarding Nintendo so it's not surprising

 

[balgajo]

It's actually the complete opposite.

TOTK is a bigger game than BOTW, launched to a bigger userbase, has more WOM given the traction of its launch, and the franchise is more popular than ever. All of which will ultimately lead to it being leggier than it's slower selling predecessor.

Suggesting it needs to prove to have BOTW's legs is akin to saying that GTA5 would have to prove to have GTA4's legs when it got off to a much faster start in sales (GTA 5 also launched at the end of PS3/360's lifecycle and wound up selling much more than GTA 4).

Like I said, this will be a game Nintendo consumers will buy in droves for the better part of the next decade. There is nothing to suggest otherwise. Buckle up.

Some fast math. If we extrapolate Japan weekly data to worldwide right now Totk is selling 3x~4x more than BOTW. In this quarter BOTW sold 800k WW.
Let's use 4x as a best case scenario over BOTW next quarter which gives around 3.2M. Considering Nintendo overshipped 3M of physical units(Totk actually sold 15.7M) next quarter we will probably be at 20M as only digital will count for the sell-in(1.6M if we use 50% split). If next console is really 2024 this holiday is the last opportunity for Totk to sell a lot. If I had to guess I'd say it will sell around 25M.
Considering other 3d Zelda and Mario sold around 50% of it's predecessor in the same console I still consider this an outstanding result.

 

[Kreese]

Saying it will definitely sell over 50 million because of numbers from a month and a half is fanfiction passed off as speculation

But this is typical of a lot of discussions on this site regarding Nintendo so it's not surprising

Yeah, it's absolutely "fanfiction" for me to think that a game in the same franchise that sold 10 times more than it's predecessor at launch will continue to do better.

Some fast math. If we extrapolate Japan weekly data to worldwide right now Totk is selling 3x~4x more than BOTW. In this quarter BOTW sold 800k WW.
Let's use 4x as a best case scenario over BOTW next quarter which gives around 3.2M. Considering Nintendo overshipped 3M of physical units(Totk actually sold 15.7M) next quarter we will probably be at 20M as only digital will count for the sell-in(1.6M if we use 50% split). If next console is really 2024 this holiday is the last opportunity for Totk to sell a lot. If I had to guess I'd say it will sell around 25M.
Considering other 3d Zelda and Mario sold around 50% of it's predecessor in the same console I still consider this an outstanding result.

Why is this the last opportunity? Why will it stop selling on Switch 2? Assuming that sales will be cut off because a new console is launching defies what some of the biggest games this gen like GTA and MK8 (which were from the gen prior) have done.

 

[AngryAlchemist]

I predict that Donkey Kong will sell 50 billion bananas by the end of the Dole fiscal year

 

[Nintenbro]

For anyone wondering here are the games that didn't get updated although most of them will be updated when someone gets hold of the 2023 Cesa white book.

Million Sellers not updated this Quarter (1st Party)

Pokémon Let's Go: 15.07m
Pokémon BD/SP: 14.92m
Pokémon Legends Arceus: 14.83m
Splatoon 2: 13.30m
Luigi's Mansion 3: 12.82m
Super Mario 3D World + BF: 11.38m
Splatoon 3: 10.67m
Mario Party Superstars: 10.17m
Switch Sports: 9.60m
Super Mario 3D All-Stars: 9.07m
Super Mario Maker 2: 7.89m
Kirby ATFL: 6.46m
Legend of Zelda LA: 6.08m
Mario Tennis Aces: 4.28m
Clubhouse Games: 4.22m
DKC Tropical Freeze: 4.12m
Hyrule Warriors AOC: 4.00m
Kirby Star Allies: 3.98m
Legend of Zelda SS: 3.91m
Fire Emblem TH: 3.82m
1-2 Switch: 3.63m
Paper Mario Origami King: 3.34m
Yoshi's Crafted World: 3.01m
Metroid Dread: 3.00m
New Pokémon Snap!: 2.74m
Arms: 2.66m
Mario Strikers Battle League: 2.54m
Xenoblade Chronicles 2: 2.44m
Mario Golf Super Rush: 2.35m
Pikmin 3 Deluxe: 2.23m
Captain Toad TT: 2.13m
Octopath Traveller: 2.08m
Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: 1.89m
Xenoblade Chronicles 3: 1.86m
Miitopia: 1.68m
Xenoblade Chronicles DE: 1.68m
Fire Emblem Engage: 1.61m
Big Brain Academy Brain vs Brain: 1.59m
Mario Kart Live Home Circuit: 1.58m
Pokkén Tournament DX: 1.54m
Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: 1.50m
Kirby's Return to Dream Land DX: 1.46m
Astral Chain: 1.28m
Wario Ware Get it Together!: 1.27m
Dr Kawashima's Brain training: 1.20m
Metroid Prime Remastered: 1.09m
Bayonetta 3: 1.07m
Game Builder Garage: 1.06m
Bayonetta 2: 1.04m
Fire Emblem Three Hopes: 1.00m

I don't know of this is a double standard but most Nintendo games only really do 100k - 800k in a single Quarter NOT a million but Nintendo still reports it anyway which makes it feel random? in a way

 

[balgajo]

Yeah, it's absolutely "fanfiction" for me to think that a game in the same franchise that sold 10 times more than it's predecessor at launch will continue to do better.



Why is this the last opportunity? Why will it stop selling on Switch 2? Assuming that sales will be cut off because a new console is launching defies what some of the biggest games this gen like GTA and MK8 (which were from the gen prior) have done.

Of course it can but then comparing the sales with BOTW becomes more unnacurate. No reason to believe that an improved Totk port will sell much more than an improved Botw port. And if Nintendo only releases an improved Totk port we will never know.

It's difficult to compare with GTA as IV is really different from V. The same about MK8 as it was locked inside a Wii U that wasn't sold to anybody.

 

[VLQ]

I don't know of this is a double standard but most Nintendo games only really do 100k - 800k in a single Quarter NOT a million but Nintendo still reports it anyway which makes it feel random? in a way

Nintendo reports games selling >1mil on reporting financial year, e.g. in 1st quarter they reports games sold 1mil from April to June, in 2nd quarter they reports games sold 1mil from April to September, 3rd quarter from April to December, and in 4th from April to March.